Mafia 101: Mafia 101

[Lora]

Yes, but not actions.

#304


#311

No shit there was no actions. That doesn't make me not a vt.

[Danner]

You felt confident enough to counterclaim Blood Fox on the fact that he must be lying because he didn't see your night action submit...

Which you now claim to not have had.

[Lora]

Because his claim was outlandish for a basic game

[Danner]

No really - "I did talk in my qt last night but it was the same post as my action so maybe that's why he didn't see it? I still don't really believe his claim."
This post here doesn't add up one bit with your recent VT claim.

[Lora]

Go ahead and lynch a town person. Making it easier for the scum to win. Absolutely brilliant plan.

[Deleted]

Cruelle you fucking moron. I was protecting the doctor from actually claiming. I'm just vt. Good job.

Not moronic at all. I had considered that was what you were trying to do, but also I have to consider the other option that you might be the godfather. I self protected last night, if I die tonight, upon my flip you are with out doubt going to be lynched anyway.

I felt my information needed to be known, there is only so long I am going to get away with being not killed regardless of your help.

[Senna1251]

I'm alive-life crap going on last 24 hours, am exhausted. Will post tomorrow morning, I see Dupti mentioned me so I probably have a question to answer too.

[Graeham]

Alright, so...this is what we have so far, unless I'm missing something. Feel free to correct me if so!

Cruelle - Claims Doctor
Danner - ?
Dupti - ?
Graeham - ?
Largehorn - Claims Jack of All Trades
Listo95 - ?
Lora - VT
Maxilian - ?
Senna1251 - ?

Dead:
Marack playing a Town Jail Keeper has died Night 1
Robozerim playing a Mafia Goon has been lynched Day 2
SatsuBL playing a Mafia Goon has been lynched Day3
Virothe playing a Town Tracker has died Night 4
Crackleslap playing a Vanilla Townie has been Lynched Day 5
Celtic playing a Mafia Goon has been lynched Day 6
Blood Fox playing the Town Cop has been killed Night 6

So, we've seen three TPR's flip so far. A Jail Keeper, a Tracker and a Cop. We've also seen three scum flip in the form of simple goons.

I'm not convinced that we'd have five TPR's in a game this size. Even four may very well be a stretch. It's just a matter of figuring out who is lying, I suppose. Which is easier said than done. This was the theory I hinted at earlier.

[listo95]

Cruelle - Doc (was also visited by Satsu so this is 100% true I would say)
Danner - Likely town (improved based on BF's Innocent)
Dupti - Neutral
Graeham - Very likely town
Largehorn - JoAT claim
Listo95 - Town
Lora - VT (Inno from BF)
Maxilian - Neutral
Senna1251 - Neutral

So really based on this Senna, Max, dupti are neutral to me due to me not getting a read making them really seem either side exceedingly. If we assume a GF exists that does mean the Lora and Danner Innocent has less merit but I still in that case do not see Danner as mafia, Lora would be iffy in that case. Both Cruelle's and Large's claim makes a total of 5 possible TPRs... which seems like an insanely high number for a 16 player game so I could see 1 of them being a lie but I also get the odd feeling it isn't.

[Deleted]

Cruelle- Town Doctor: May have claimed to early but when you get to day 7 of a game and you don't make day 8, people would be puzzled as to why you didn't claim.

Danner- Leaning trust- Was on both Robo trains both days, importantly was on early enough day 1 to avoid the whole split vote mess. Was first on Satsubl day 3. Then the two Crackle votes followed by Celtic. Post 389 today was excellent and makes me have a good leaning trust on Danner.

Dupti- neutral-. The problem child for me this game, I usually know where I am with him by now. I rely a lot on previous games to help me with my analysis. His posts and responses to me have been good, however he was directly involved in the split vote mess on day one, he was around for the last 90 minutes of the day. His trust list in #382, except for his read on Senna who is at the top of my trust list, we both have similar reads.

This from Danner...

Dupti is a name I usually don't see in this latter bin by such a gameday number. He has not given me pause to think he is scum per se - in fact, if I am to judge him for his words, I should lean town on him. But... there's the nagging feeling that I cannot shake given how unusually quiet this game has been; which isn't Dupti's fault in any imagination - but I can't make it fit nonetheless.

#metoo


Graeham- trust- His early play really cemented him as town for me, self vote worried me but other than that trust.

Largehorn-leaning trust - I felt since early game he was town. His posts are very much Town Largehorne from a meta point of view.

Listo95- leaning slight distrust- Must not be allowed to get anywhere near end game. I have lost count of how many times as scum he sails by because he is busy. It is nice that he is here now though.

Lora- distrust- Especially after the posts Danner pointed out earlier about countering Bloods claim. Claimed Doc day 3, to soak up a kill no doubt, only 4 days later and nothing has happened.

Maxilian- leaning afk- His early play was ok, but hasn't shown up at all happy to lynch.

Senna1251-trust- It's almost like your my alt account. You put out a trust list that I could have typed myself. When you know your town and someone else is mirroring your exact thought's, it is incredibly hard not to have you as town. If your scum (which I still think your not) your playing a blinder.


Looking at the game set up, with only goons flipping, I'd say we have a protection role we didn't need but I have no idea what the last two mafia roles are and won't know till the end of the game. So I'll comment more then.

As for the play, I don't think either side have been brilliant. Two no lynches for town and the mafia bungling day one by not picking one person to bus, lead to both players being lynched. Have to say though, it's super fucking unlucky to have two of your team be the lead trains for day one.

[Danner]

I have been thinking a lot about this situation last night.

I don't believe Lora's bait story. Lora is effecitvely caught red-handed by a counterclaim, and earlier play doesn't align with the "just baiting a kill" story. Lora need to be lynched.
I believe Maxilian is scum. The defence of Satsu is what really seals it for me, and the absence certainly doesn't help anyone. Maxilian need to be lynched.

These are pretty good odds of nabbing two scum in two lynches I think. And that still leaves us with 2 additional lynches before LyLo in case there are more scum, possibly more if doctoring is on mark.

Now, my problem here is that ... I don't think Lora and Maxilian is on the same team!

Maxilian, after defending Satsu, wanted to vote Lora. If this really is the straightforward naive play I think it is, that means they're not teammates.

These reads are contradictory if there is only one scumteam around. And I think that is the case.

[Largehorn]

So personally I think we have to lynch Lora today... I don't think we really have much choice there.

Which also means our inactive players get another pass.

- - - Updated - - -

I don't think Lora and Maxilian is on the same team!

There's been no evidence of a second scum team... that means every night their kill has to have hit a protect or the same target... and I can't believe the odds of that are very high.

[Danner]

@Largehorn: Agreed.

Which means I must be wrong about one of them, right?

[Largehorn]

Which means I must be wrong about one of them, right?

I don't think that has to be the case... Max isn't a "new" player and with a team that large is it perfectly possible there was some planning being done there. Especially if after Lora's Doc claim. In my opinion, when you know a team mate is fake claiming is one of the best times to bus them.

Generally though you have to still be around and playing for it to be believable though...

[Senna1251]

Cruelle: claimed doctor, thought was town pretty much all game. Town
Danner: Has innocent and I get town vibes from him anyway. Town
Dupti: active at first, then disappeared. Not getting town or scum vibe. Neutral.
Graeham: thought was town pretty much all game. Town
Largehorn: claimed Joat. don't know how to read, but has trust of others. leaning Town
Listo95: while not active, votes and vote timing say town to me. Town.
Lora: VT or Godfather. Easy to lynch, but was an early vote pile up on Celtic....and I believe that Celtic's train last day was all town. this will be controversial, but Leaning town.
Maxilian: leaning scum, I feel like should be today's vote.
Senna1251: Town.

So I have one leaning scum, Max, one neutral, Dupti, and the rest town....either I'm spot on and we lynch Max and Dupti for the win, or I'm being fooled. I'm not totally opposed to lynching Lora (because at worst Lora is a VT, because I can be fooled, because I'm not really good at reading Lora anyway). I just want to say that if Lora is a VT, I totally called it in my quick thread days ago

@dupti I reread through your posts, and I've looked through my notes, and I can't find anything on anything you posted beyond Day 3, other than to note that you showed up and voted (on Blood Fox). If I had recalled something in particular when I made that post, I can't remember it now. All I have is that you are not very active, and also the one observation I made Day 3, which I will pull up again.

"However, Day 2, he voted Satsu, and due to his wording post #193, he did it without seeing Danner's vote previously posted. That means that he deliberately tied the trains up with an hour and a half to go. Now, after seeing Danner's vote, he switched to Robozerim and hammered. I can't help but find this somewhat suspicious."

Hope this answers that, it's all I got right now.
---

Anyway, I'd rather get rid of Max over Dupti at this point.

Vote: Maxilian

[dupti]

@dupti I reread through your posts, and I've looked through my notes, and I can't find anything on anything you posted beyond Day 3, other than to note that you showed up and voted (on Blood Fox). If I had recalled something in particular when I made that post, I can't remember it now. All I have is that you are not very active, and also the one observation I made Day 3, which I will pull up again.

"However, Day 2, he voted Satsu, and due to his wording post #193, he did it without seeing Danner's vote previously posted. That means that he deliberately tied the trains up with an hour and a half to go. Now, after seeing Danner's vote, he switched to Robozerim and hammered. I can't help but find this somewhat suspicious."

Hm I see, but that is not what happened though. I thought the wagons were already tied when I voted because Danner said they were both at 6, so I voted on Satsu because I thought he was more likely to be scum than Robo. Then after posting my vote and refreshing the page I saw Cru telling Danner it was in fact 6-5 (before Danner's vote) and saw Danner's vote on Robo so I made sure to swap my vote instantly to help ensure a lynch.

Also while I do understand the logic behind "me trying to tie the wagons=suspicious", that is not what happened and why would I ever do that as scum there? As in why would I actively try to tie the wagons up on 2 scum buddies near deadline only for a moment later when realising the wagons were no longer tied up go back on it? If I was scum and wanted a no lynch there are probably way better ways to do it. I could have put out an useless vote early on just to get votes out and tell the other scum to do it, tell Robo and Satsu to be prepared to force a no lynch with their votes near the deadline (which was actually a possibility until I voted on Robo, go me yey), because it wouldn't really have cost scum anything to do that. It would just save them a day from getting lynched, it seemed pretty likely they would both get lynched at some point soon.

- - - Updated - - -

Anyway it seems like everyone has pretty much given their reaids now, but frankly the reads haven't really helped me. Given the nature of this game with the two scums early d1 I imagine scum have distanced themselves, so I'm not sure how to feel about the association reads. I'd rather stick to my town reads at the moment, in fact I feel really good about my townreads.

Obviously Lora is no longer a "confirmed" town to me, but I think Cru and Largehorn are always town. I think Graeham is pretty guaranteed town and I'd like to say that if Lora is scum then I think Danner is town as well because of his posts today. I guess it is a possibility he just wanted to hard distance as soon as Cru counterclaimed, but there's also the fact that both Danner and Lora have an innocent check on them, so as soon as an innocent check flips scum I'd like to believe that confirms the rest as town.

I also said earlier today that I don't think we should be lynching an inno check today, but given the counterclaim we kind of have to lynch Lora at some point, I'm just not still entirely sure it's the best idea to do so today though. Need to consider some possible scenarios first.

[Largehorn]

we kind of have to lynch Lora at some point, I'm just not still entirely sure it's the best idea to do so today though. Need to consider some possible scenarios first.

I can agree with this. This would make Max the next reasonable lynch based on inactivity. It has been what 3 game days now since we got a post from them?

My issue is that Senna followed you on that vote despite the situation with Lora and it would appear from Senna's most recent post that the situation doesn't really matter to them.

Which makes me wonder if Max really isn't scum and we've got a few scum that have kinda been caught trying to deflect that way.

[Senna1251]

@dupti To that I say, who knows what goes on in the mind as scum (besides scum)? Sorry, but you did tie the wagons up day 2, whether you realized it or not, and while we have your side of the story, there's also the side of "oops, that looks too scummy, might as well lose Robo and gain some town points." After all, Celtic tied up the trains Day 1 late in the day, I pointed it out, and look he was scum. I have to decide on whether you're being sincere or not. Which is tricky as fuck to do.

@Largehorn I didn't follow nobody on nothing. Dupti unvoted, so therefore Max had 0 votes on him when I voted for him. That was based on my read on Max. As far as the Lora situation goes, can you explain to me why you think the situation doesn't matter to me? Did you want me to put Lora at L-1? Was that the only acceptable thing for me to do? You're really confusing me here.

[Lora]

No power because of storm and phone's almost dead. Just want to say you're fucking stupid for wanting to lynch a confirmed town and making it easier for scum to win.

[Largehorn]

I didn't follow nobody on nothing. Dupti unvoted, so therefore Max had 0 votes on him when I voted for him. That was based on my read on Max. [...] As far as the Lora situation goes, Did you want me to put Lora at L-1? Was that the only acceptable thing for me to do? You're really confusing me here.

I stand corrected I had missed the unvote; that said the vote doesn't sit well with me. It's following on Dupti's logic and you don't have to have a vote out right now. It just felt dodgy to me.

can you explain to me why you think the situation doesn't matter to me?

Lora: VT or Godfather. Easy to lynch, but was an early vote pile up on Celtic....and I believe that Celtic's train last day was all town. this will be controversial, but Leaning town.

This right here. "Here's all this stuff but I'm not going to do anything with it".

How else should that be read?