Mafia 101: Mafia 101

[dupti]

Hm, well perhaps you could just respond to the rest of my wall of text then, I might interupt and reply to some of it if you post it in bits but I don't think thats a problem

[Danner]

Honestly it can be any of you 3 minus graeham in my eyes. The only reason I think it could be you is you might be the GF. But to me something with Senna just feels off this game. Literally besides the vote records cause I just am not feeling like I can get much from them and my ability to read this game is meh since I kinda lost the will about D3...

That's a start, but very unsubstantial. I would argue there isn't much substance to be had - but nonetheless, try to express it.

F.ex, what feels off with Senna?

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Hm, well perhaps you could just respond to the rest of my wall of text then, I might interupt and reply to some of it if you post it in bits but I don't think thats a problem

Just wondering what to reply to next. Just taking it in turns takes forever, and we're already discussing some of the latter points.
Suggestions on which part to start at?

[dupti]

Fair enough, I didn't intend for it to be such a long post.

I'm mainly interested in the things you called me out for I guess. So what about this?

The Lora trust is interesting? Oh alright, so you trusting Blood Fox for his play because it makes no sense for scum to do is alright but me trusting Lora because it makes absolutely no sense for him to fake claim doc there as scum is interesting? Don't get me wrong, what you brought up may be a valid point but I feel like you are ignoring my reasoning. Why would scum ever fake claim doc there?

[listo95]

That's a start, but very unsubstantial. I would argue there isn't much substance to be had - but nonetheless, try to express it.

F.ex, what feels off with Senna?

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Just wondering what to reply to next. Just taking it in turns takes forever, and we're already discussing some of the latter points.
Suggestions on which part to start at?

I don't know, just their placement on trains and the overall feel I get from them. Which is kinda the reason people read them as town so yeah...

[dupti]

Also you called my D5 vote on Blood Fox bad.

This was my response:

Perhaps, but day 4 I thought he was either just trolling as town or scum, neither which are good for town but when he OMGUSed me and then came up with these checks day 5 I thought he was way more scummy. As I said before, him not checking me just felt like he did not want to commit to a check seeing as he was pushing on me. He would either have to fake a guilty check on me or clear me, but if he was scum he would have no interest in clearing me then. Not only that, he checked Cru of all people. I thought that check was really bad and in fact I disliked most of his checks. I did not believe his claim at all no and was very confident he was not town.

But I would also like to add, since you townread Blood Fox by asking yourself "why would he do that as scum", I assume you are also asking yourself the same question when going over my posts.

So could you maybe explain why I as scum would vote on the cop claim who is pushing on me two days in a row only to kill him then?

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You also mentioned that I have just been going with the flow. I provided examples of the opposite, but I'd like to talk about this as well.
Who currently still alive do you believe has taken more stands/went more against the flow than me? Since you called me out for just going with the flow, does that mean you do not believe any of the other players alive have been doing that?

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Oh and actually let me just get back to the whole "why would he do that as scum". Can you explain why I would do this as scum?

D4:
I give a list of 5 people who I think are most likely town and should not be lynched. In hindsight, that list was really good so I pretty much tell town to just lynch outside them (including myself) and they will most likely win. I even included you as a possible 6th player, although I could personally not "clear" you anymore since Satsu flipped scum as well.

[Danner]

D4/290: Votes Blood Fox. Trusts Cruelle, Largehorn, Virothe, Lora. The Lora trust is interesting, because it's another point where me and Dupti disagreed. As scum, with knowledge that the N3 kill on Cruelle just failed, Lora's claim may see a lot more believable. However, hot much of this vote is due to Lora's misinformation, and how much is down to the earlier campaign of distrust on Blood Fox? I'm not sure...

The Lora trust is interesting? Oh alright, so you trusting Blood Fox for his play because it makes no sense for scum to do is alright but me trusting Lora because it makes absolutely no sense for him to fake claim doc there as scum is interesting? Don't get me wrong, what you brought up may be a valid point but I feel like you are ignoring my reasoning. Why would scum ever fake claim doc there?
I mean day 3 I even trusted Virothe for the exact same reason. Why is that not interesting?

I might indeed be hypocritical here.

I personally didn't trust Lora after that claim. Per Largehorn's #269, really. It was... too convenient.

My in-retrospect thinking here is that the mafia tried to kill Cruelle both N2 and N3. Mafia knows that kill failed on N3, town didn't. When Lora claims to have blocked a kill on Cruelle N3, so the mafia should trust Lora a lot.

Whoa.

... but I just went back and re-checked. Lora claimed to have blocked a kill on SELF N3, per post 274, not Cruelle as I thought. Which means I am actually very wrong here. There is absolutely no way the mafia would trust Lora's claim. And thus the read that you can be mafia trusting Lora with that. That turns this entire read up on its head.

I'm gonna have to officially retract this. It means the people trusting Lora are town reads, and the people distrusting Lora are scum reads.

That's a left-hook development if I ever saw one.

[Senna1251]

@listo95 I know I'm a hard sell right now, but I'm only one person. If you could convince Graeham and Danner to change their minds, then you can save yourself. And actually, if you had come into this day guns ablazing, you would have had my attention. If your town and you care about your fellow townies and this game, you know that your lynch is a mislynch and you should be fighting it tooth and nail, not this blase attitude of "what can I do?" That screams to me of scum giving up.

If it's not you, then Danner and Dupti are on a scum team together.....and we should lynch Dupti first. Sell me this idea, and I'll switch to Dupti. Or, if you're really sure on your read on me, sell that, but honestly I can't endorse that route because that will lead to a town loss.

@Graeham what do you think of Dupti's posts today?

[Danner]

But I would also like to add, since you townread Blood Fox by asking yourself "why would he do that as scum", I assume you are also asking yourself the same question when going over my posts.

So could you maybe explain why I as scum would vote on the cop claim who is pushing on me two days in a row only to kill him then?

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Oh and actually let me just get back to the whole "why would he do that as scum". Can you explain why I would do this as scum?

This is actually the main issue I have with my case against you. "Would you really do that as scum."

On the face of it, it's super heavy-handed, yes?
Going all-in to discredit/stop a lynch on Satsu or Robo (whomever survives round one).
Voting Blood Fox on D5, discrediting Blood Fox.

I can interpret it as thick-handed scummery. But that's a piece I felt never really fit. Which is why I put it out there, in case someone else want to counter or back that up. Interesting that you are the first taker. Possibly my post was too long.

I do assume that the answer to "would scum do that" being yes. The question is would you do that. I'm not convinced.

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You also mentioned that I have just been going with the flow. I provided examples of the opposite, but I'd like to talk about this as well.
Who currently still alive do you believe has taken more stands/went more against the flow than me? Since you called me out for just going with the flow, does that mean you do not believe any of the other players alive have been doing that?

Did I say you were going with the flow? If so I can't recall.
I have said you weren't doing the digging. That at least was my before-looking-into-it impression of you. Note that this was BEFORE I did the breakdown of your post history. A large part of that impression was undoubtedly down to your disappearing after D2. You had two posts on D3, one on D4, one on D5, none on D6. That's listo level. It's useful to have that as a comparison between before and after the looking-into.

Now, having looked into your post history, D2 in particular you took a lot of stances. I did not recall that before doing that looking-into. I'm not at all convinced the argument you're not digging actually rings true after looking into it.

And also, voting Blood Fox is indeed a stance. I'm not sure it is a good one even before retrospect. But it's a stance all right.

TLDR: I can't accuse you of not taking a stance after actually checking. But I don't think I did.
I did accuse you of not digging, but that's because D2 was far in the past memory at that point.

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And also:

Can you explain why I would do this as scum?
I give a list of 5 people who I think are most likely town and should not be lynched. In hindsight, that list was really good so I pretty much tell town to just lynch outside them (including myself) and they will most likely win. I even included you as a possible 6th player, although I could personally not "clear" you anymore since Satsu flipped scum as well.

My character read on you is that you do not play much different as town or scum.

Which is why I struggle with "would you do that".

[listo95]

@listo95 I know I'm a hard sell right now, but I'm only one person. If you could convince Graeham and Danner to change their minds, then you can save yourself. And actually, if you had come into this day guns ablazing, you would have had my attention. If your town and you care about your fellow townies and this game, you know that your lynch is a mislynch and you should be fighting it tooth and nail, not this blase attitude of "what can I do?" That screams to me of scum giving up.

If it's not you, then Danner and Dupti are on a scum team together.....and we should lynch Dupti first. Sell me this idea, and I'll switch to Dupti. Or, if you're really sure on your read on me, sell that, but honestly I can't endorse that route because that will lead to a town loss.

@Graeham what do you think of Dupti's posts today?

Senna my issue is I literally have no idea how to convince anyone I am town. We all know this is probably my 1 extremely weak point when it comes to mafia. Like in the MLP game I needed BF to come save me more or less because I could not get people to believe me.

[Senna1251]

Senna my issue is I literally have no idea how to convince anyone I am town. We all know this is probably my 1 extremely weak point when it comes to mafia. Like in the MLP game I needed BF to come save me more or less because I could not get people to believe me.

Then create arguments on why I should vote someone else, instead of focusing on yourself. I don't know how to convince people I'm town either. So, why Dupti or Danner over you?

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I guess I should add why Senna, Dupti, or Danner over you. Being wrong /= scum all the time.

[listo95]

Then create arguments on why I should vote someone else, instead of focusing on yourself. I don't know how to convince people I'm town either. So, why Dupti or Danner over you?

Well no one should be voting Danner unless they truly believe they might be a GF. But my issue is coming down as I have nothing that screams scum for anyone here. More or less everyone but Graeham to me is in a bin of could go either way. Which that can't be used to convince anyone I am the wrong choice. Or be used to convince people to vote on someone else.

[Danner]

Now, all that aside
@dupti:
I am still left with 4 players and 2 scum to choose from.

I don't believe Graeham is it.
So that leaves you, senna and listo.

I struggle because I think Senna and Listo ain't teammates either at this point. That senna callout on listo right now seals it. That was genuine.
I am fairly convinced you and Senna ain't teammates per earlier analysis.

Senna has been around this game. Listo and you have largely not.
Your uphill battle is less than listo's, but still steep.

Today, you have made a statement which has truly made me reconsider your read.
"I have to give Danner that he is actually attempting to game solve at this point, whereas you and listo are more just sitting back."

You have tried to live by that this gameday. It counts for a lot in my eyes.
Listo has not lived by that, as senna says he has given up. Not sure that's a scum-giveup or a town-giveup, but it's certainly a giveup.
Senna has not lived by that.
Graeham has not lived by that.

For me:
The argument about your Blood Fox vote? Not really that important. I have plenty of bad votes this game too.
The argument about your Lora trust? Turns out to be my mistake. I am sorry.
The argument of your Satsu/Largehorn read as both town, taking a lot of space? Explainable, even if I'm not fully convinced. And not alone enough to weight as scum.

What matters is that you have tried. That counts for a lot.

Against that counts the words Blood Fox, whom I have to carry since he is dead. Stating you were scum. That was his read, not his investigations. So it's not something counted in claim notes. It is still there.

[dupti]

T
Did I say you were going with the flow? If so I can't recall.

Yes, I am referring to this part:

Part of me thinks Dupti is scum. That's a feeling I cannot shake. There is no easy way to decide if Dupti is town or scum per se. It's not really down to what dupti says - because dupti always says town things. It's down to whether dupti takes the leadership. And he hasn't. Minus trying to discourage a lynch on both Robo and Satsu, encourage a lynch on BF, and now that last post, Dupti has been going with the flow rather than taking stands.

My character read on you is that you do not play much different as town or scum.

Which is why I struggle with "would you do that".

That is fair. I also agree with the sentiment that "would X do that as scum/town" is a dangerous read (hence me not liking your Blood Fox read).

However the thing is if you believe that I play the same way as town or scum, how come you called me out for not attempting to lead town? Unless you believe that I do not attempt to take control of town as scum?

[listo95]

And then looking back at #437 which is my vote analysis more or less nothing has really changed from it. All 3 of you have some shit vote placements with 1 or 2 decent placements besides dupti really.

[Danner]

Actually, with two more posts from Listo and senna since I wrote that, I must moderate my "has not lived by that".

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Yes, I am referring to this part:

It seems I did. Not fair.
I retract that statement.

It is more accurate to say you have been anonymous since the end of D2, until today.

That is fair. I also agree with the sentiment that "would X do that as scum/town" is a dangerous read (hence me not liking your Blood Fox read).

However the thing is if you believe that I play the same way as town or scum, how come you called me out for not attempting to lead town? Unless you believe that I do not attempt to take control of town as scum?

That is the core of it, yes.
I believe you normally lead the town.
I believe you normally play roughly the same as town or scum.
There is obviously SOME difference, but not necessarily heavy-handed.

I cannot in good faith accuse you of being scum on virtue of not being here.
I also dislike making scum accusations based on "not playing like normal". It happened to me, and it was not sane nor fair to deal with.
Even if that is the essence what it boils down to here. We wouldn't be here if you had kept your D2 play throughout the game.

I tried my best substantiating the case against you better than that. By picking at what I could.
Some which I belive still may have merit. Others which turned out not good - the Lora argument in particular was hugely wrong.

[Senna1251]

Well no one should be voting Danner unless they truly believe they might be a GF. But my issue is coming down as I have nothing that screams scum for anyone here. More or less everyone but Graeham to me is in a bin of could go either way. Which that can't be used to convince anyone I am the wrong choice. Or be used to convince people to vote on someone else.

Well then I don't know what to tell you. Unfortunately at this point of the game you gotta have some conviction. I understand having a difficult time to read people: I've been trying to read Dupti all game to no avail. But I have a set of beliefs, and I'm either right or wrong. IF I'M WRONG, that means either Graeham or Danner fooled me, and they played better than I did anyway, I have no problem with either of them winning the game. I'm willing to take the risk.

Danner and Graeham might be more sway-able than I am, Danner at least seems to be trying to narrow it down to the best of his ability. There's reason why all of us are waiting until the last moment to place their vote.

[listo95]

Well then I don't know what to tell you. Unfortunately at this point of the game you gotta have some conviction. I understand having a difficult time to read people: I've been trying to read Dupti all game to no avail. But I have a set of beliefs, and I'm either right or wrong. IF I'M WRONG, that means either Graeham or Danner fooled me, and they played better than I did anyway, I have no problem with either of them winning the game. I'm willing to take the risk.

Danner and Graeham might be more sway-able than I am, Danner at least seems to be trying to narrow it down to the best of his ability. There's reason why all of us are waiting until the last moment to place their vote.

Thing is you should not be willing to let someone win just because they played better than you. That is more or less how I won as Godshot and Decagon got a ton of flak for it because I never should have won that game. You should be trying to be as impartial as possible and trying to find the outcome that makes the most sense based on what is known and how you feel.

[dupti]

I'd also like to refer to a post I made around d4 or so. Given how this game evolved I do not believe association reads are worth anything. While it is indeed WIFOM, I think based on how day 1 went it is very likely that scum just distanced themselves. We know for a fact they bussed each other. It is also confirmed from my point of view that both the remaining scum were on Celtic's wagon. From your point of view assuming you are town it is obviously one confirmed one was on it. I can however not deny it that it is WIFOM, which is why we can't really form a read based on what we think the remaining scum did, so I have already said this but I believe the best approach ever since we learned that both d1 wagons were on scum is to read players individually.

I've already explained my individual reads. I thought Danner was very suspicious going into today. I will however admit that the effort he has put into his posts today in lylo and the fact that he could probably just have buried me given Graeham and Senna agreed with the lynch targets, I'm actually finding him to be more town than both listo and Senna.

With that said I don't really have a scumread on either listo and Senna. I've already mentioned how about I felt both of you before going into today, but given we are in lylo today I think it is much more interesting how you have treated it.

The issue I have with the way both of you approached this is you haven't really attempted to game solve, you have been sitting back but for what I consider to be completely different reasons. Listo sounds like he has just given up. I'm not sure that is necessarily alignment indicative, but generally I believe scum are more likely to give up in lylo if they believe can't survive. Problem I have with that is if we do have 2 scum remaining, I'm not sure what the motivation would be.
I mean it would make sense if his teammate was going to get lynched as well, but the way I am seeing it feels like I am the only other lynch candidate and I am not his teammate so that is not the case. Another explanation could be that his teammate in such a good position that they are confident that they will win it.
From my point of view this obviously makes a lot of sense. Going into today Danner, Graeham and Senna quickly agreed (actually seemed like they all agreed yesterday) that they would lynch me and listo, so it obviously does not really matter whether they win today or tomorrow.
It is obviously also a possibility that he is town, but in that case I'm honestly baffled you aren't doing more today.

As for Senna the reason for not doing much is that she does feel she is in danger of being lynched, which based on everything that has happened is most likely true. I'm not sure it says anything about her alignment at all, could be scum just not caring or town just really confident in her reads. I obviously dislike that approach very much in lylo though.

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Well then I don't know what to tell you. Unfortunately at this point of the game you gotta have some conviction. I understand having a difficult time to read people: I've been trying to read Dupti all game to no avail. But I have a set of beliefs, and I'm either right or wrong. IF I'M WRONG, that means either Graeham or Danner fooled me, and they played better than I did anyway, I have no problem with either of them winning the game. I'm willing to take the risk.

That's not a very fair way to think about this I think. If you are town then you are not the only one who loses if you mislynch.

[Danner]

It is getting to the point where I soon have to go to bed.

By my account, there is 9.5 hours left until the deadline. I can place that vote in the morning after sleep.

But I am honestly not sure where to place it.

[dupti]

Considering we all seem to be around at the moment, we should at least be careful with votes seeing as scum can hammer if someone votes wrong.