Mafia 103: Buffy (2)- The Chase to Transylvania.

[Krayzy]

I had pegged Dupti as the town cop before yesterday. Tells me how much I know.

Anyway.
@Blood Fox:

Full claim please.

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Also: Sorry for failing my task. I fell asleep.

I’m hoping I’ll be able to fall asleep sometime soon.

[Danner]

I don't know why, but I struggle at staying awake these days. Slept almost 10 hrs last night. That's not supposed to happen.

[Krayzy]

It’s been a while since I’ve done one of these (two years?), so I figured I’d get one out there while I’m in too much pain to concentrate on much of anything.

Blood Fox - It’s honestly real hard to get a read on him because he’s been really quiet.
Danner - I believe I can trust Danner. Haven’t had enough information to be convinced of that though.
Dsonsion - New player that I don’t know very much about. They have been contributing just enough, but not a lot of substance. Is either a VT or scum that doesn’t want to give away too much.
Dupti - Has had some comments that have made me scratch my head, but I haven’t exactly seen a reason to distrust him. It may be a toss up whether I trust him or not, but for now the coin is saying trust (and if I toss the coin again it could change).
Kryllian- Haven’t really seen him say much I agree with so if anything I’m unsure leaning towards not trusting. We’ll see what happens going forward.
Robo - DON’T TRUST. I 100% believe he is playing pro-town right now. With his role (which I’d be willing to wager large amounts of money on being true) he has absolutely no reason to stay loyal to town if things keep looking bad.
Senna - She (?) looks to be someone a few people don’t trust. I’d lynch Robo first (I hate survivors) but she’d (?) be up there on my suspect list.
Strikered - Absolutely no freakin clue. None whatsoever. That kind of worries me but it kind of doesn’t (I’m pretty damn sure he isn’t a SK this game).

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I don't know why, but I struggle at staying awake these days. Slept almost 10 hrs last night. That's not supposed to happen.

I’ve been sleeping more (or at least my body wants to sleep more) because for the first time since my transplant (and hell, the 5 years before that) I have energy to exert and I’ve been using all that energy. Between going to the gym for 1+ hours every day to coaching Little League 4 days a week and everything else I’ve been doing I’ve been wearing myself out.

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Oh and I guess I should update my Blood Fox thoughts with his claim. If it was a claim.

[dupti]

Right now he is (or should be) playing as town. Later in the game there is no way he should be left alone. He will easily change his allegiance if scum is definitely ahead. Should we lynch him today, tomorrow, or the next day is the question. I personally don’t like keeping survivors around.

I am well aware of how a survivor works, but that does not really answer my question.

The thing is instead of lynching a survivor claim you guys decided to lynch an inactive player who had just gotten back. The initial reason we started the wagon on kel started was because he disappeared, no one really had a read on him. The fact that he was still lynched after shownig up again because the alternative wagon claimed survivor is very questionable.

As for the actual survivor claim, well the problem I have is that I am not entirely sure I believe it. The abilities he claimed are very similar. I also find the second ability hard to believe, but that's mainly because I'm not a fan of RNG abilities. I am unsure as to whether Cruelle would put it in his games, so I can't say for certain Robo is lying about it. ("...but I have a chance of taking any actions directed at my target").

Another thing that bothered me was how everyone just instantly bought the claim and then voted on kel, who in my opinion should not have been a target at that point because he had showed up. Or well at least people should have a better reason to vote on him at that time, especially over a survivor claim.

On the other hand, why would Robo claim survivor as scum? Survivor is basically a policy lynch claim. I have been thinking about this and I am not sure I can come up with a good enough reason. I mean technically a survivor will show up as guilty when checked by a cop, but Robo knew Virothe checked him n1 (at least it seems like that was the case) and received no result. If Robo was aware of this he could have probably just claimed to be a commuter, although that is a questionable claim as well seeing as we have seen scum fake claim it before.

Anyway, point is perhaps Robo is telling the truth about the claim, but normally you poilicy lynch survivors and for good reasons. Does not matter if he is siding with town, he will still count towards scum majority. Scum has no reason to kill him and the fact that we killed a town over him for very weak reasons in my opinion is a really dumb move. I can understand what Virothe said, it's not fun being policy lynched as a survivor so I do understand why people feel like letting them live, but for that to be the case you have to be really certain they are in fact what they claim to be since they are not going to be killed during the night and even in that case it is still a risk, because they can easily side with scum.

The worst part now is that if Robo is indeed neutral, then it will always be a "what if" scenario for the rest of the game. A potential "mislynch" that scum can always push to just fake contribution, buy time or redirect to.

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As for Blood Fox, I am under the impression that Virothe inno checked him.

I'm still highly suspicious of Robo, but a couple people like Blood are in my good books for now.

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Virothe's flip doesn't really surprise me nor does his death. I figured it would be him or Dupti.

Wait why did you think I would die? You said you thought I was very suspicious yesterday

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@Danner, who is your strongest townread between Dsonsion, Kryllian, Senna and Strikered?

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Okay I'm just going to make a wall of text, because we need to figure out how we are going to approach today.
First of all, the setup:

Setup A:
5 scum vs 10/11 town (vs 1 neutral)

A 5 scum team would give town 2 mislynches before lylo.
If this is the case, then it would mean it is currently 5v4. If Robo is telling the truth, it's 4v4v1.


Setup B:
4 scum vs 11/12 town (vs 1 neutral)
A 4 scum team would give town 3 mislynches before lylo.
Meaning it would currently be 3v6. If Robo is telling the truth, then 3v5v1.

I find B to be the more likely scenario, but would still like to go over A.
So yeah, we are really not in a great position. I think not killing Robo yesterday was a very big risk.
In scenario A the problem is that if Robo is neutral and town wants to win, they can not lynch him because it would turn into a 4v4.
On the other hand if we do not lynch him in that case, he becomes kingmaker. want to win we can not lynch Robo because if he is neutral it becomes 4v4.
I will however say if we have a 5 man scum team, then I think extremely unlikely that we have a neutral around.
However the "good" thing is that if we have a 5 man scum team then it seems extremely unlikely that we have a neutral.
So as far as setup A goes, I believe Robo would most likely always be scum.

As for B, which I think is the more likely scenario, it would either be a 6v3 or 5v3v1. (if Robo is neutral).
If Robo is neutral and we mislynch a townie, he becomes kingmaker.
If Robo is scum and we mislynch a townie, it will be a 4v3 the next day.

If Robo is neutral and we lynch him, it will be a 4v3 the next day.
If Robo is scum and we lynch him, it will be a 4v2 the next day.

So I guess the conclusion is that if we are indeed living in setup B, the safest play is to lynch Robo today as that guarantees us at least one more day.
However I can't guarantee that this is the setup and there is one more thing that has a rather big impact on the balance, which is the day kill.

We need to be careful with our votes today. It is possible someone else has the day kill today.
I am not sure what the best way is to deal with this. If someone daykills a townie, then we are pretty much doomed.
Another big problem is that we do not currently know if the daykill just works from the get go or if some conditions have to be met first, which makes it a bit harder to play around.
I do however think it is best to assume, for now at least, that it comes from the targeted players first vote (I believe it was Kryllians first vote that killed Graeham?).

We can just let people approach the the day normally and just hope they don't end up daykilling a townie, or we can go for the "safer" play by simply having everyone put their first vote on Robo.
Obviously they should unvote after so we don't accidently lynch him out of nowhere. But I think this is the safest way to play around it.

Then if Robo ends up getting daykilled:
Setup A:
If neutral, it's 4v4, we lose
If scum, it's 5v3

Setup B:
If neutral, it's 5v3
If scum, it's 6v2

So we straight up lose if it is setup A and he is neutral. But on the other hand if that is the case then there is a pretty big risk we end up losing randomly as well if a town gets daykilled.
Overall I think the safest way to deal with the daykill is to test it out on Robo.
However I can not deny that there is a small chance that we lose because of it.
It is a bit difficult to speculate about the setup with a day kill around, especially considering we do not know exactly how it works.
It obviously has an impact on the balance of the game. Could either be great for town or terrible. It's also possible it was a one shot or something, who knows.

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Town:
Blood
Danner
Krayzy
dupti!!!!!111111111

Which leaves me with
Dsonsion, Kryllian, Robo, Senna and Strikered.

So if setup A:

5v4 or 4v4v1.
If Robo is telling the truth, then I would have to believe the rest are scum together (in this seutp).
If Robo is lying, then there is a town between them.

Obviously it's possible my townreads are wrong though.

If setup b:

6v3 or 5v3v1.
If Robo is telling the truth, then there is 1 town between the rest.
If Robo is lying, then there are 2 town between the rest.


so I guess my tl;dr would be that Robo is probably the safest lynch, but I want to clarify that the safest does not necesarrily mean the best.
It would obviously be best to lynch a scum and there is definitely a possibility that Robo is indeed neutral.

I believe the remaining scum are between Dsonsion, Kryllian, Robo, Senna and Strikered. I'm also well aware that my townreads could be wrong though.
I'm not sure whether I am looking for 3 or 4 scum between the five of them, but I am leaning it towards being 3 at the moment. (which means 2 town or 1 town + 1 neutral between them)

Oh and I believe we can play around the daykill simply by voting on Robo, seeing as he is the safest lynch, but it is possible it is going to doom town.
I just find it risky to not do anything about it though.

anyway ill be back later

[Danner]

@Danner, who is your strongest townread between Dsonsion, Kryllian, Senna and Strikered?

Now that is a very good question.
If you had asked me two days ago, I would have said Strikered. But that read is not more and more clear to me that is incorrectly based.

Premise:
We most likely only have one scum faction with a NK. The wish mechanic adds additional daykills from a game balance point of view. I am thinking we should have roughtly 4 scum left. Whether Robo counts amongst those numbers for game balance purposes or not is a question I do not know, but I assume he is what he says he is. I believe Dupti is town. I believe Krayzy is town. I am town, though you'll have to take my word on it. And I reserve judgement on Blood Fox until he makes that full claim, but town is likely. That leaves the four in your list. It's a good list.

Strikered:
- Voted Kel (town)
- Voted Lora (town)
- Trust list with BF, Robo, Virothe on town, senna and dsonion on scum.
- Voted Graeham (scum, second on train)
- Voted Dupti
- Voted Kryllian

So, what is Strikered's gameplan here? To me it seems he made an effort to save Robozerim. What to think about that depends on my read on Robozerim. Is he really what he says he is, or is that just a clever scum ploy? I am leaning heavily towards the former on a gutfeel. If true, I think that helps Strikered's case quite a bit, despite I don't actually think Robo "being saved" is a good thing at all. On the other hand, I feel he's been all over the place in votes. Still, compared to Senna I think that's much better.

I can and must add that I have made an effort to vouch for Strikered. That pushback on a strikered vote, that was me. BUT: The rationale I used to vouch for him does not add up anymore.

Senna:
- Voted Lora (town)
- Voted Kryllian
- Voted Kel (town),
I am struggling with making Senna's game plan. Senna has argued that Strikered and Lora were scum (#95), secondarily Danner if Lora flips scum (#95), Robozerim (#98), Kryllian (#194), Dsonian (#196), and expressed a desire to vote Robo (#220). It's scattered. It's inconcise. It's also lacking in drive - senna has raised several scum theories, but I don't feel it's backed by action. Which makes me suspect they're hollow.

That said, I think the constant line has been Senna going after Strikered in name, but not vote. I am thinking Strikered and Senna not being teammates, but I'm also thinking they just might be due to that lack of voting. I'm also thinking Kryllian and Senna not being teammates. Sum of those three reads - either Senna is the town amongst the lot, and Robo is scum, or I am misreading one of the people in my town bin. The latter is unfortunately more likely than Senna being town I think. I went into the day likely to put my vote on Senna.

Kryllian:
- Voted Dupti
- Voted Strikered
- Voted Fortnite (town)
- Voted Robo
- Voted Lora (town)
- Voted Graeham (scum, 5th on train, wished)
- Voted Kel (town)
That's all over the place. But half of that is D1 nonsense, and I don't sense any agenda beyond that. For better or worse. His main contribution was tagging me and dupti as teammates, though that's not actually accurate. If I am to describe my impression, it's that Kryllian is non-committal. That's just where scum want to be. Also: it would be hilarious if his vote on Graeham actually was "friendly fire". As a result I am putting him in "suspect of being scum" bin.

But - while I don't get much from Kryllian, I do get something from the people interacting with him. Both Strikered and Senna voted him. Either that's some good scumplay, or he's not aligned with the other two. I'm actually leaning the latter.

Dsonsion:
- Voted Lora (town)
- Voted Robo
- Voted Strikered
- Voted Kel (town)
- Voted Robo
My read from earlier hasn't changed much. I think he's training. Specifically, I think he is just following my votes. Is that because he's new and trying to fit in, or is that because other things? I must admit I am leaning the former. But - we are looking for scum, and I think he's a good option for being just that.

The thing that strikes me against that idea is Senna's dig earlier.

--

So, here's the question. Which player would the game be easier if we didn't have around right now?
I think that answer is Robozerim. One of us possibly has a killing wish if I read this right. We can just use it. Robo loses if he really is that survivor, but it's for a good cause.

On the other hand, if we have a chance of actually take out scum this way. I like the chances of targeting the scum pool dupti listed.

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@Danner, who is your strongest townread between Dsonsion, Kryllian, Senna and Strikered?

Oh, and I didn't actually answer that did I?

I can make a case for all of them being town. And in doing so, I think there is something wrong with my town reads.

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(Not at the same time, mind you! Most likely 3 out of 4 is scum!)

[Dsonsion]

I'll share my opinions on the people remaining. I think it's a good idea to lynch Robozerim, as he's the least trustworthy of all as of now.

On the other hand, did Blood Fox just hint he's a special role in one of his last messages?

honestly Im surprised the skum hasn't nked me yet. I guess they are saving me for a late game lynch... anyways Danner didnt visit anyone last night so thats cool

Here goes the list:
Blood Fox - No idea. I don't know what I can gather from his quoted post.
Danner - He seems all right, I guess.
Dsonsion - If I weren't me I'd doubt myself because I'm kinda shitty convincing others to trust me, but I'm town.
Dupti - I trust Dupti, I see no reason to mistrust him from all I've seen.
Kryllian- I don't know, he might be town, but he's not convinced me as much as Danner or Dupti. He did vote for Graeham, so he might be town or throwing his pal under the bus right before the end.
Krayzy- I didn't trust him that much before, but his contributions have been fine overall. The thing that bothers me is that he didn't cast a vote all that often, and did only for fortnitevbucks and kel. He might be town, but his votes don't help his case as town. I guess we'll see later on.
Senna - She smells like scum to me. I don't like her indecisive yet finger-pointing posts.
Strikered - No idea, but I'm leaning on not trusting this one.

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Dsonsion:

My read from earlier hasn't changed much. I think he's training. Specifically, I think he is just following my votes. Is that because he's new and trying to fit in, or is that because other things? I must admit I am leaning the former. But - we are looking for scum, and I think he's a good option for being just that.

The thing that strikes me against that idea is Senna's dig earlier.

Hey, I've never followed your votes, that I can remember. But I've followed other people's votes a couple of times this game.

[Danner]

On the other hand, did Blood Fox just hint he's a special role in one of his last messages?

Well, with Blood Fox you can never really know. But that claim is basically him saying he is a tracker. I asked Blood Fox to make a full claim. I think that is the only prudent thing at this point.
Awaiting Blood Fox I guess.

[Krayzy]

Dupti,

I got on here right before the day ended and all the votes had already changed. I was in my car and posting between stoplights, but I still planned to keep my vote on Robo. The only reason I changed my mind is because when Kel did come back he said he would get his thoughts outs that day. He never bothered to show back up. Him not posting or voting was, at the time, worse for the town than a survivor who was currently playing for the town.

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Krayzy- I didn't trust him that much before, but his contributions have been fine overall. The thing that bothers me is that he didn't cast a vote all that often, and did only for fortnitevbucks and kel. He might be town, but his votes don't help his case as town. I guess we'll see later on.

What game have you been playing? I missed one vote because I got home late. I have been active, possibly the most active player in this game, and voted every single day but that one.

[Senna1251]

Sorry everyone for the late show, I had a demanding 3 year old to attend to.

Here's my list and intent to vote but not wish at the moment because Dupti already eloquently pointed out how and why wishing is a very dangerous thing to do right now:

Blood Fox: I had zero notes for him, other than being very quiet (I think he did show up once day 3), and thought that he might be a lynch based on not showing up. But, he came back, with a pr claim to boot. Without pressure at all. Does a tpr Blood Fox claim without pressure? Yes, yes he does. Could he be pulling a Lora and be a VT claiming to be a tpr? Eh, not out of the realm of possibility. Could he be scum doing a play? I can't rule that out either at this point. He's a hard beast to read, but I'm always wanting to lean town on him. My read might solidify on him with more activity, but I don't think I want to wish on him as of now. NEUTRAL

Danner: He had a post day 1 that I really didn't like, and didn't vote for Graeham day 3, even after seeming to have intent with Day 2 posts and claiming to not believe Graeham. That's in a nutshell what I don't like about Danner. However, he has also had many posts that I attribute to a town-feeling Danner. Also, I didn't like Graeham's wording how we "needed" to lynch Danner. If I look at the overall consistent picture, I think I'm going to go ahead and put Danner in the town bin. TOWN

Dsonsion: I don't have much in my notes for Dsonsion, other than his votes seem kinda all over the place. At some points he seems really concerned about how people perceive him, and while I normally would put that as scummy behavior, I also think that it falls as new player behavior too. @Dsonsion can you give me a reads list of everyone alive today? kay thanks. I know you have me as scum. However, your Senna scum posts have come after Danner's #210 post where he mentioned a Dsonsion/Senna thing, and your reasonings kind of parrot what Danner already said (mixed a little bit with what Dupti said of me too). It seemed like to me that you're scum reading me for town points. Forgive me if I'm wrong, that's just the impression I get. That's why I would really like some original thoughts from you and where you want to go moving forward, I think you have some town reads by this point too. NEUTRAL

Dupti: I believe that there's only one scum team, and I don't think that he's on Graeham's team. If that wasn't enough, his content and posts scream town. TOWN

Krayzy: Another person I really don't have much notes on. However, he quickly called out Graeham, and I think post #177 is what seals the deal for me, where he's actively pushing others to lynch Graeham. I just don't see Krayzy as a person on Graeham's team. His other posts have been insightful at times too. I'm going town for Krayzy. TOWN

Kryllian: I was pretty alright with Kryllian, didn't see anything out of order or out of tune until day 3 in the post where Kryllian wished Graeham. Someone prove me wrong if this is wrong, but I don't recall Kryllian ever going over whether he believed Graeham's claim or not. He wished Graeham because of information gain. In my opinion that's the wrong reason for a lynch (you're willing to sacrifice a doctor for info?) Since then, he hasn't really gone over what information we gained, but I think I can look that over because Graeham wasn't properly lynched, but was wish-killed. Another thing is that in post #188, which is Kryllian's reaction to the wish-kill, I get the vibe that Kryllian is not actually happy with it. There's no positive remarks starting off. Maybe I'm looking into it too much, but my gut feel is really strong on that one. LEANING SCUM

Robo: Has claimed survivor. Hasn't really contributed too much to the game, though irl has definitely been a factor for him. A bit of a wildcard at this point, if you believe that he is neutral. I would like a reads list from @Robozerim if you have time as well. I believe his claim, just don't know how he's aligned. If we town can't decide on a scum lynch, Robo could be it and I would be alright with it-at this point. WILDCARD

Senna: Le town. TOWN

Strikered: Gained some interest early on in Day 1 and somewhat Day 2, but that has, well, diminished drastically. Hardly anyone talks about Strikered (the one exception I remember is Dupti, who has mentioned its odd that we talked about fortnite being a deflection Day 1 and it could have been a deflection from Lora or Strikered, we followed up on Lora but not Strikered), and I don't know if it's because people think he's town or what. I did have somewhat of a weak town read on Strikered after Day 2, but Day 3 has kind of changed my mind. First of all, in his reads list he gave out in #156, he listed me and Dsonsion as his only leaning scum reads, but he hasn't pursued either of us. Quite the opposite actually. He votes for Kryllian after me in post #199, and in post #207 he responds to Virothe saying he's town's sheep, he'll sheep anyone he has a town lean on......the last person he sheeped was me. But yet earlier in the day I was a scum lean? What's going on? He did vote for Graeham.....but then he voted for Dupti. I just don't like it. LEANING SCUM

Incoming TL;DR

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Ack! @Dsonsion sorry I must have skipped over your post, I didn't realize you already put out a reads list. Forget my request, let me go over what you have.

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Ok, so I have a town bin where I absolutely will not vote today. I feel pretty good about this bin.

TOWN: Danner, Dupti, Krayzy, Senna

I have a wildcard who could be beneficial to town, could be neutral, or scum-aligned:

WILDCARD: Robo

I'm putting everyone else in my possible scum bin:

POSSIBLE SCUM BIN: Blood Fox, Dsonsion, Kryllian, Strikered

If I could put out an intent to vote, it would be on Kryllian or Strikered at this point. If I am wrong I would hazard a guess and switch Blood Fox with Danner, but I think above is where I'm at right now.

[Blood Fox]

I never claimed tracker so I think you got my claim just by that. If you need more help:

I'm ok with pushing anyone today except my scum buddy strikered

which was also my first post of that day. I just made this one more obvious.

what is not obvious to me is why anyone is confused that I claimed without pressure. I havent been able to post much so i have little ground to strand on in terms of a defence. I also know that even though i havent said much, many people seem to be "trusting" me. I figured this either means skum has a good inkling that I was not a TPR OR they think im a good late game lynch because i have little defence. Either situation isnt the best for me. I know that i can be lynched at the drop of a hat so no shit im skipping the hullabaloo and getting stright to the point.

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Also no need for protections on me tonight. Robo I got a safe space for ya but if you promise you’re really a vivor

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let me remake my claims for clairty:

strikered is inno
Danner did not visit/leave his own home last night.

[Kryllian]

@Blood Fox

So you're claiming Joat with an inv and a track/jail/something like that. Can you please provide your character name and which nite you did your inv?

[Danner]

Well. I can confirm blood fox is telling the truth as far as I am concerned. I will trust the claim.

[Blood Fox]

I already told you what night and willow

[Krayzy]

Well. I can confirm blood fox is telling the truth as far as I am concerned. I will trust the claim.

Is there any response other than this that anyone would say? I believe he is right about you but that seems like a safe play.

[Blood Fox]

Is there any response other than this that anyone would say? I believe he is right about you but that seems like a safe play.

ehh theres a little something in what I said which will confirm my claim to danner.

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Is there any response other than this that anyone would say? I believe he is right about you but that seems like a safe play.

ehh theres a little something in what I said which will confirm my claim to danner.

[Danner]

@Krayzy: I did consider that possibility of Blood Fox just gambling here, yes. It is why I wanted the claim begore backing it up.

I cannot be certain. But I am going to bet the game on it nonetheless. I will trust the claim.

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ehh theres a little something in what I said which will confirm my claim to danner.

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ehh theres a little something in what I said which will confirm my claim to danner.

Aaw. Spoilsport. I was toning it down here. Communication verified. Blood Fox is what he claims.

[Kryllian]

I'm curious why you used your investigation on N2 vs N1. I'd think you'd want to get that done ASAP in case you died early.

[Blood Fox]

@Krayzy: I did consider that possibility of Blood Fox just gambling here, yes. It is why I wanted the claim begore backing it up.

I cannot be certain. But I am going to bet the game on it nonetheless. I will trust the claim.

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Aaw. Spoilsport. I was toning it down here. Communication verified. Blood Fox is what he claims.

its fine love

I'm curious why you used your investigation on N2 vs N1. I'd think you'd want to get that done ASAP in case you died early.

i was lynched d1 last game, noone was going to to kill me n1 and I rather widdle down the options by waiting a night I knew I wasnt going to get shot

[Krayzy]

I'm curious why you used your investigation on N2 vs N1. I'd think you'd want to get that done ASAP in case you died early.

I’d have saved the investigation until at least night three. The first two days it’s damn hard to get a feeling for who might be scum and there are other less important roles to use in the blind.

[dupti]

Very well then. I do not believe Blood and Strikered are ever scumpartners. Danner seems to confirm Blood claim, so I believe it as well, which means Strikered has an inno check on him. While he could obviously have investigation immunity, it is not one I wish to pursue.

So I do not want to lynch Blood, Danner, Krayzy or Strikered today.

I'm a bit scared of the daykill to be honest.

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Hm I feel like I’m missing something. It all feels a bit too easy