Quick, go get your spawn of Horridon

[Video Games]

One day i did bt to finish my glaive set on my rouge and i did. Then i ran it on my warrior and got another one. I felt the true spirit of jesus inside me and knew i was going to get alar, so i ran tk and got it. Before and since, bad luck every day for me. Thanks jesus.

[Nefarious Tea]

You were either lucky or untruthful..

1% drop chance, three times in a row = 1 in 1.000.000 chance.
Not impossible, but very improbable.

I mean, it's a one in a million chance for a single person to see that, but if a million characters run ToT three times like that, there's a 65% chance of three drops in a row occurring. The REAL improbable occurrence is the confluence of attributes the person(s) it has happened to has to have to get it posted to MMO champion. OP had to be able to speak English, have an MMO champion account, give enough of a shit to screenshot, upload, and link, etc etc... Had this happened to someone in China, no one would have ever heard about it.

[Polarthief]

I had to run TK hundreds of times (50 of them on my Warlock) across many toons before the ashes finally dropped.

And they dropped for my goddamned Druid on his 2nd time through. FML.

Before account-bound mounts were a thing, I got 3 mounts on my alt priest too easily while farming them like mad on my main.

1. Ashes of A'lar: Tried to get this thing so many times on my main but did a random fun run on my priest with some friends. It dropped and I won the roll. Cursed a thousand times because account bound mounts weren't a thing yet.

2. When the Oculus was such a hated dungeon, getting it via random would give you a bag that had a chance to get the blue drake (Malygos 10 mount). I must have gotten 50+ bags on my main, but it only took one on my priest and I wasn't even trying for it.

3. Stonecore drops a pretty sweet cyan-colored dragon named the Vitreous Stone Drake and I wanted it for quite awhile. Main: 100+ runs. Priest: 1, while leveling.

Dunno how my priest was so lucky. It was pretty ridiculous to keep happening over and over.

[Azurenys]

Yeah it's just good RNG.

I remember getting Thoridal (legendary TBC bow) and Ashes of Al'ar in the same day on my alt hunter.
I was like WTFFFF!!! Best feeling ever

[Schizoide]

"Lucky" is getting a 1% droprate mount in 69 tries or less. More than that is unlucky.

4000 is REALLY unlucky.

[Raelbo]

Keep it up. Got mine the week before last finally at 4245 runs across all my toons.

No offence, but that is pretty much impossible. The odds are around 1/10^19. Which means a less than 1 in a hundred billion chance of any wow player in the history of the game being that unlucky

It's a 1% drop, which means:

• 63% chance of dropping off 100 kills
• 87% chance of dropping off 200 kills
• 98% chance of dropping off 400 kills
• 99.97% chance of dropping off 800 kills
• 99.9999999% chance of dropping off 1600 kills
• 99.99999999999999% chance of dropping of 3200 kills

My only explanation is that you were running the instance on normal and/or 10 man mode in which the mount doesn't drop at all.\

The only mounts that might take that long are the MoP world bosses, Rukhmar and the Love Rocket from Love is in the air, and even then, you'd have to be pretty unlucky.

Also, how did you get 4K runs in? At 50 attempts per year per toon, 4K is 8 toons every week for 10 years....

[Lucetia]

No offence, but that is pretty much impossible. The odds are around 1/10^19. Which means a less than 1 in a hundred billion chance of any wow player in the history of the game being that unlucky

It's a 1% drop, which means:

• 63% chance of dropping off 100 kills
• 87% chance of dropping off 200 kills
• 98% chance of dropping off 400 kills
• 99.97% chance of dropping off 800 kills
• 99.9999999% chance of dropping off 1600 kills
• 99.99999999999999% chance of dropping of 3200 kills

My only explanation is that you were running the instance on normal and/or 10 man mode in which the mount doesn't drop at all.\

The only mounts that might take that long are the MoP world bosses, Rukhmar and the Love Rocket from Love is in the air, and even then, you'd have to be pretty unlucky.

Also, how did you get 4K runs in? At 50 attempts per year per toon, 4K is 8 toons every week for 10 years....

You are doing statistics in a vacuum and assuming I'm the only factor. That's not the case and quite possible for people to go 4k with no mount simply because of how it works.

I've also been running about 10-15 toons per year through the instance (and others since roughly Cataclysm) and they were all on 25man not 10.

Each character would also have it's own chance on top of the chance it drops altogether. Let's say it drops 1 out of 100. Even though I run it 4245 times I could be one of the 99 people each time it doesn't drop, etc. Your statistical chance would work if I'm the only factor in the entire thing.

Also, there's 52 attempts per year for just 1 toon. Also, why choose just 1?

[Raelbo]

I mean, it's a one in a million chance for a single person to see that, but if a million characters run ToT three times like that, there's a 65% chance of three drops in a row occurring. The REAL improbable occurrence is the confluence of attributes the person(s) it has happened to has to have to get it posted to MMO champion. OP had to be able to speak English, have an MMO champion account, give enough of a shit to screenshot, upload, and link, etc etc... Had this happened to someone in China, no one would have ever heard about it.

Bear in mind that Spawn of Horridon has a greater than 1% drop chance. According to Wowhead it's 3% (although further reading would indicate that it's higher for harder modes and ~4% for 25Hc).

So the odds are actually closer to 1/37K. Integrate that over the period of a year and the odds become 1/740

[Sting]

Old guildie had 15000 attempts before getting nalaks mount, now thats unlucky

[Arainie]

You are doing statistics in a vacuum and assuming I'm the only factor. That's not the case and quite possible for people to go 4k with no mount simply because of how it works.

I've also been running about 10-15 toons per year through the instance (and others since roughly Cataclysm) and they were all on 25man not 10.

Each character would also have it's own chance on top of the chance it drops altogether. Let's say it drops 1 out of 100. Even though I run it 4245 times I could be one of the 99 people each time it doesn't drop, etc. Your statistical chance would work if I'm the only factor in the entire thing.

Also, there's 52 attempts per year for just 1 toon. Also, why choose just 1?

The only thing that would distort his assumptions is if you were doing the runs during Cata/MoP with others, the mount dropped and someone else got it. Since MoP released about 300 resets have passed, so you'd need roughly 15 characters weekly to get to your number if you did it solo every week from the MoP release. Excluding runs with other players would indeed make the maths presented completely correct assuming the 1% droprate is accurate.

[caervek]

Sometimes you just get insanely good luck, it's happened to me a few times over the years.

I think my luckiest thing in Legion so far is getting the corrupted Ashbringer in like half an hour while most people have taken days if not weeks to complete it from start to finish.

[Kaleredar]

You are doing statistics in a vacuum and assuming I'm the only factor. That's not the case and quite possible for people to go 4k with no mount simply because of how it works.

I've also been running about 10-15 toons per year through the instance (and others since roughly Cataclysm) and they were all on 25man not 10.

Each character would also have it's own chance on top of the chance it drops altogether. Let's say it drops 1 out of 100. Even though I run it 4245 times I could be one of the 99 people each time it doesn't drop, etc. Your statistical chance would work if I'm the only factor in the entire thing.

Also, there's 52 attempts per year for just 1 toon. Also, why choose just 1?

...what?

Each time you kill the boss it's a separate chance for the mount to drop; I've also seen nothing conclusive proving that 25 man runs have a better chance of a mount dropping or that having more or fewer people in a group increases or decreases the chance of a mount dropping. As far as I can ascertain, every time you kill a boss the game rolls a 100-sided dice and if it hits the exact right number then it adds the mount to the boss' loot upon death (seeing as mounts never take up a loot spot and are always extra.) There's no ulterior factors involved for rare drop boss mounts, especially not for Horridon, where you can't bonus roll the mount.

[Raelbo]

You are doing statistics in a vacuum and assuming I'm the only factor. That's not the case and quite possible for people to go 4k with no mount simply because of how it works.

My assumption is that the mount is a random 1/100 drop chance. That is all. Unless for some reason the system is giving you a lower probability for some reason, the odds of going 4000 attempts are so incredibly low that, to all intents and purposes, it is impossible.

I've also been running about 10-15 toons per year through the instance (and others since roughly Cataclysm) and they were all on 25man not 10.

Are you sure it was set to Heroic? Because Invincible only drops on Heroic 25.

Each character would also have it's own chance on top of the chance it drops altogether. Let's say it drops 1 out of 100. Even though I run it 4245 times I could be one of the 99 people each time it doesn't drop, etc.

The character you do the run on should make no difference whatsoever. Each kill is simply another 1/100 chance of the drop. And yes, for any individual run, you are likely to be in the 99/100 chance that it doesn't drop. But the statistical probability of that being the case 4000 times in a row is, as I mentioned, astronomically low.

Your statistical chance would work if I'm the only factor in the entire thing.

I am not sure what you mean by this?

Also, there's 52 attempts per year for just 1 toon. Also, why choose just 1?

I was saying that, in order to get in 4K attempts, you'd need to make use of 8 toons over a 10 year period.

[Lucetia]

The only thing that would distort his assumptions is if you were doing the runs during Cata/MoP with others, the mount dropped and someone else got it. Since MoP released about 300 resets have passed, so you'd need roughly 15 characters weekly to get to your number if you did it solo every week from the MoP release. Excluding runs with other players would indeed make the maths presented completely correct assuming the 1% droprate is accurate.

Except it never dropped until recently. Cata was 3 of us running (myself and two roomates) then switched to solo towards end of Cata on some toons, grouped on others.

Yes it's possible. Is it going to happen to everyone? No.

That's why you see some get it first try and other's take a millenia to get.

...what?

Each time you kill the boss it's a separate chance for the mount to drop; I've also seen nothing conclusive proving that 25 man runs have a better chance of a mount dropping or that having more or fewer people in a group increases or decreases the chance of a mount dropping. As far as I can ascertain, every time you kill a boss the game rolls a 100-sided dice and if it hits the exact right number then it adds the mount to the boss' loot upon death (seeing as mounts never take up a loot spot and are always extra.) There's no ulterior factors involved for rare drop boss mounts, especially not for Horridon, where you can't bonus roll the mount.

What you are saying has nothing to do with what I'm saying.

Every time you kill the boss you have exactly 1 out of 100 chance to get it. Nothing more, nothing less regardless of your previous kills. 25 man in this case definitely has an effect since it only drops on 25H, no other difficulty. So yes, that is conclusive enough evidence.

My assumption is that the mount is a random 1/100 drop chance. That is all. Unless for some reason the system is giving you a lower probability for some reason, the odds of going 4000 attempts are so incredibly low that, to all intents and purposes, it is impossible.

The drop chance is 1 out of 100. Nothing less, nothing more. Subsequent runs don't have any affect on the chance it will drop or not.

Are you sure it was set to Heroic? Because Invincible only drops on Heroic 25.

Whether you intend for it to or not, you are sounding rather insulting. Yes, I know what difficulty I ran it on. I have more knowledge on this stuff than anyone really should ><

The character you do the run on should make no difference whatsoever. Each kill is simply another 1/100 chance of the drop. And yes, for any individual run, you are likely to be in the 99/100 chance that it doesn't drop. But the statistical probability of that being the case 4000 times in a row is, as I mentioned, astronomically low.

But they aren't all in a row. They are all different times, different days. Looking at it in a row for one individual doesn't do much good, there are other factors at play.

[cuafpr]

they just need to add bad luck protection to raid mounts is all, maybe only one from 2 expacs back.. I gave up collecting due to the insanely low drop rates and frustration. several thousand lich king runs and ashes of alar tries did me in.. and that ignores the mounts they removed b4 they could drop for me.. Swift Z. Tiger >.<

[Raelbo]

Whether you intend for it to or not, you are sounding rather insulting. Yes, I know what difficulty I ran it on. I have more knowledge on this stuff than anyone really should ><

I apologise if I sound insulting. It honestly is not my intention.

Your story intrigued me because it should be impossible. I am simply curious to figure out why. The details of your story seems to indicate that your number of runs is not an exaggeration or an error on your part.

Furthermore what you said in your post "Most raid mounts I'm in the 2-4k range depending on when the raid came out and how soloable it was" is something you should probably be concerned about. There is no way that raid mounts should be taking that many attempts for you to farm. So it's kinda in your best interest to figure out why you're so incredibly unlucky. Something is definitely going on to affect your luck....

[Arainie]

Except it never dropped until recently. Cata was 3 of us running (myself and two roomates) then switched to solo towards end of Cata on some toons, grouped on others.

Yes it's possible. Is it going to happen to everyone? No.

That's why you see some get it first try and other's take a millenia to get.



What you are saying has nothing to do with what I'm saying.

Every time you kill the boss you have exactly 1 out of 100 chance to get it. Nothing more, nothing less regardless of your previous kills. 25 man in this case definitely has an effect since it only drops on 25H, no other difficulty. So yes, that is conclusive enough evidence.



The drop chance is 1 out of 100. Nothing less, nothing more. Subsequent runs don't have any affect on the chance it will drop or not.



Whether you intend for it to or not, you are sounding rather insulting. Yes, I know what difficulty I ran it on. I have more knowledge on this stuff than anyone really should ><



But they aren't all in a row. They are all different times, different days. Looking at it in a row for one individual doesn't do much good, there are other factors at play.

But what you don't seem to get is that statistically, it doesn't matter if the attempts are made with a year in between, the mathematics is still the same. If the chance of getting a mount is p=0.01, the chance of not getting a mount drop at all in N consecutive tries is (1-p)^N. It doesn't matter if someone else in a different run gets a mount in between, your chances are not altered because of that (as far as our knowledge goes). That's just how probability and statistics work, there's no room for debate on this very matter.

And for reference, using the notations above:
P(no mount in 4245 consecutive tries) = (1-0.01)^4245 = 0.99^4245 ~= 2.96 * 10^-19. In other words, 0.000000000000000000296. That's on the scale of one in a few quintillions. Heh. It's entirely possible that there's one such unlucky person in the world, but it's extremely unlikely and the chance that there are two who are equally unlucky is closing in on 1/infinity.

[Raelbo]

But they aren't all in a row. They are all different times, different days.

What I mean by "all in a row" is that they are consecutive kills without getting the mount. The time between kills is irrelevant.

there are other factors at play.

It certainly seems that way. But it's a mystery to me what those factors are, although you seem to be hinting that you might know?

[Mirishka]

Pureblood Firehawk dropped twice for me, in 2 back-to-back Firelands runs on 2 toons in the same week. I told my guildies 'hey something's amiss, 2 firehawks from Rag in 2 runs' and sure enough several of them ran H FL - and the mount didn't drop for any of them.

TLDR: RNG gonna RNG.

[Aeula]

Just ran it, got nothing. You lied to us OP!