The Brexit aftermath thread

[Gibblewink]

Before we get too frustrated by Dribbles' silly arguments here let's remember that he is not talking about apportioning blame in any rational sense, but about selling it to the readership of the mighty British tabloid press. Thus anything that tells them that they are righteous, mighty and about to win should go over swimmingly facts notwithstanding.

[ranzino]

another round of wishful thinking: https://www.theguardian.com/politics...al-sources-say

Downing Street has insisted that Theresa May is confident of securing a Brexit deal with Brussels despite Liam Fox’s assertion that the UK appears set to crash out of the EU without reaching an agreement.

sticking fingers into ears wont solve anything, Theresa

[Kallisto]

another round of wishful thinking: https://www.theguardian.com/politics...al-sources-say

Downing Street has insisted that Theresa May is confident of securing a Brexit deal with Brussels despite Liam Fox’s assertion that the UK appears set to crash out of the EU without reaching an agreement.

sticking fingers into ears wont solve anything, Theresa

There's only 3 positions that can happen.

UK stays in EU
UK gets Norway style deal (EU without having influence)
Or crashes out with nothing.

Anything else is just fantasy land. May just desperate these days.

[Slant]

It is not begging Slanty, it is about apportioning blame. When negotiations fail it will be the fault of the side who can't stick their own internationally enshrined laws and treaties. That'd be the EU.

Having established the criminal states in these proceedings, it will be much easier to sell a tougher and tougher stance by the UK to the domestic audience against the EU to those modern day Neville Chamberlain remain appeasers who never learnt the lesson of history.

You're asking the EU to break its own treaties and core principles, because you think not giving the UK everything it wants wouldn't be giving it "special treatment" and that'd be the law violation that you condemn? I mean, your logic doesn't even make sense when letting it stand on its own feet. It's lunatic ravings, really.

There is no criminal state, this isn't a criminal court trial, it's negotiations for a trade agreement. Nobody forces the EU to do this. They're doing this because they give the UK special treatment. This is voluntarily. This, believe it or not, is the EU playing nice. Ask the US how it feels when the EU starts bullying. You're beyond delusional. You're the worst possible caricature of a Brexiteer. I'd be ashamed if I had voted Brexit and you were the representative of my side.

There is no tougher stance by the UK. The UK has outbluffed itself right at the beginning. To repeat this: The UK has no tennable stance at all at this point. There is not even the basis to begin serious talks at this stage, since the UK has confirmed that nothing is considered binding in any way. I'm all in support of the UK seling it however they want to the domestic audience. It's none of our business. I think people like you are cheating your fellow countrymen and dragging them down the wrong road, but hey, it's not my problem any longer. Nor the EU's. This has nothing to do with yet another Nazi Germany/WW2 reference, another of your faults.

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Before we get too frustrated by Dribbles' silly arguments here let's remember that he is not talking about apportioning blame in any rational sense, but about selling it to the readership of the mighty British tabloid press. Thus anything that tells them that they are righteous, mighty and about to win should go over swimmingly facts notwithstanding.

I don't think he's even trying to have an argument. He's been trolling 90% of the time. Why should he change now. It's just mad ramblings to get the rise out of people. Nothing he says even makes sense. Not even under the most favourable circumstances is any of the things he say remotely realistic. He's the worst predicter of events in the history of predicting things since the first caveman went "I bet if I gently hit this lion over the head with my club, nothing bad will happen..."

[Edge-]

Free movement within our exclusive economic zone with a no deal is not a given. So yes going around them will be very relevant. How much you going to offer again?

https://twitter.com/fishingforleave/...27259081105408

At least link where you got this from or don't crop out the identifying tag. This shit is a year old.

[Slant]

There's only 3 positions that can happen.

UK stays in EU
UK gets Norway style deal (EU without having influence)
Or crashes out with nothing.

Anything else is just fantasy land. May just desperate these days.

I agree. Not because there aren't any other option. Mostly because they can't agree to have anything but those low-effort ready-to-use solutions and time's running out. If I had to put a wager, I'd favour crashing out with close to 50% at this stage, based on how the UK Government is undecided and in a complete disarray over Brexit. If I had to choose between the two other options, I think the UK staying in the EU is out of the question. Norway would probably be the most sensible solution that comes closest to what the UK wants.

But, it's not the smartest choice, really. They'd pay more for less rights.

[Demolitia]

I agree. Not because there aren't any other option. Mostly because they can't agree to have anything but those low-effort ready-to-use solutions and time's running out. If I had to put a wager, I'd favour crashing out with close to 50% at this stage, based on how the UK Government is undecided and in a complete disarray over Brexit. If I had to choose between the two other options, I think the UK staying in the EU is out of the question. Norway would probably be the most sensible solution that comes closest to what the UK wants.

But, it's not the smartest choice, really. They'd pay more for less rights.

I wonder. I'd say joining EFTA is the only sensible option at this point, as a temporary solution. But can they negotiate a different relationship/trade deal with the EU while being an EFTA member?
I'm worried that for most access to regulatory agencies their status has to be settled as it involves reopening founding regulations in most cases. And that's not done quickly.
There is no question they can be part of EASA, Europol, Galileo and Eurojust to some degree, but the capacity in which they join depends on their relationship with the EU.
Even this would involve ECJ supervision which they're still hellbent on refusing.
This whole thing is just madness.
edit: it basically feels like kicking the can down the road
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I wonder how long until everyone cries for the EU to start fiscal policy doing from Brussels. That would solve so many problems and inconsistencies. But, at that point we're actually talking about a federal nation soon. It's one of those holy grails that make a nation. We already got currency, legislation in many areas (but not even close to all encompassing), we are discussing a EU defense force openly. Now fiscal policy doesn't look half shit, to be honest. How long until we just call the child by its name? What else is left?

Quite frankly a common fiscal policy should have been launched at the same time as the Euro. A common currency without a common fiscal and broad economic policy and government is crazy. This is something that should be sorted out immediately.

[alexw]

Oh but it is an EU problem and they are acting illegally by failing to address it. Look at Article 8 here (page 20 ish):-

https://europa.eu/european-union/sit...reaties_en.pdf

"The Union shall develop a special relationship with neighbouring countries, aiming to establish
an area of prosperity and good neighbourliness, founded on the values of the Union and
characterised by close and peaceful relations based on cooperation."

So we are a neighbouring country who the EU as per their own laws must treat as special. Are the EU lawful or lawless? Can they be trusted or not?

Stick to your laws and treaties please, that's all we ask. Is that too much to ask?

Errr lol?

Article 8 in its entirety -

"Article 8

1. The Union shall develop a special relationship with neighbouring countries, aiming to establish an area of prosperity and good neighbourliness, founded on the values of the Union and characterised by close and peaceful relations based on cooperation.

2. For the purposes of paragraph 1, the Union may conclude specific agreements with the countries concerned. These agreements may contain reciprocal rights and obligations as well as the possibility of undertaking activities jointly. Their implementation shall be the subject of periodic consultation."

Everything you posted above is pure bullshit. It doesn't have to conclude an agreement with the UK, it may do so, but it isn't a requirement.

[Mayhem]

Errr lol?

Article 8 in its entirety -

"Article 8

1. The Union shall develop a special relationship with neighbouring countries, aiming to establish an area of prosperity and good neighbourliness, founded on the values of the Union and characterised by close and peaceful relations based on cooperation.

2. For the purposes of paragraph 1, the Union may conclude specific agreements with the countries concerned. These agreements may contain reciprocal rights and obligations as well as the possibility of undertaking activities jointly. Their implementation shall be the subject of periodic consultation."

Everything you posted above is pure bullshit. It doesn't have to conclude an agreement with the UK, it may do so, but it isn't a requirement.

Don't expect of dribbles to understand the English language. All of his posts make way more sense then.

[alexw]

https://twitter.com/fishingforleave/...27259081105408

At least link where you got this from or don't crop out the identifying tag. This shit is a year old.

Its nonsense anyway. Fish don't adhere to a countries territorial waters. Thus agreements on fishing are almost always struck anyway between countries sharing boundaries, as its the only way to properly manage fish stocks and prevent over fishing.

[Slant]

I wonder. I'd say joining EFTA is the only sensible option at this point, as a temporary solution. But can they negotiate a different relationship/trade deal with the EU while being an EFTA member?

Well, the EU is not averse to renegotiating stuff. The EU loves negotiations. It's their entire purpose in life at this point, it seems. Sure, give them some temporary status as Norway and then evolve that into Norway 2.0 through further negotiations. Heck, Norway and Switzerland are constantly negotiating something with the EU. They keep their independence, the EU keeps its integrity and watches over the EU values being observed and everyone is happy.

But nope, the UK wants to be "special" and get all the fun bits without any of the responsibilities that come with it. And they'd like us to pay for it, too. That needs to change. This unicorn philosophy doesn't work. It hasn't worked for almost 2 years, it's going to crash the UK out if they don't stop the madness and get serious.

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Its nonsense anyway. Fish don't adhere to a countries territorial waters. Thus agreements on fishing are almost always struck anyway between countries sharing boundaries, as its the only way to properly manage fish stocks and prevent over fishing.

Well, if one thing's abundantly clear, it's that the UK doesn't actually care about overfishing.

[Mayhem]

Well, if one thing's abundantly clear, it's that the UK doesn't actually care about overfishing.

or really anything at all.

[Demolitia]

Well, the EU is not averse to renegotiating stuff. The EU loves negotiations. It's their entire purpose in life at this point, it seems. Sure, give them some temporary status as Norway and then evolve that into Norway 2.0 through further negotiations. Heck, Norway and Switzerland are constantly negotiating something with the EU. They keep their independence, the EU keeps its integrity and watches over the EU values being observed and everyone is happy.

But nope, the UK wants to be "special" and get all the fun bits without any of the responsibilities that come with it. And they'd like us to pay for it, too. That needs to change. This unicorn philosophy doesn't work. It hasn't worked for almost 2 years, it's going to crash the UK out if they don't stop the madness and get serious.

Switzerland negotiates stuff all the time because that is their relationship with the EU. A pile of small trade deals negotiated over the years.
I don't think Norway gets to negotiate anything on its own with the EU as their status is an EFTA member. So EFTA members as a whole negotiate with the EU. As far as I know they only get to send comments to the EU before the "commitology" process starts but EFTA's status is constantly negotiating its status with the EU. They can only choose to join agencies but don't get any representation other than observers, and they have to pay a contribution.

Anyway, if they flat out reject the ECJ they'll just crash out with no transition, which will be a shitstorm for everyone.

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or really anything at all.

undercarbonated beer?

[Vankrys]

I just watched this



it does seem UK ports are badly equipped to handle a hard brexit, with hard borders, custom inspections, the whole nine yards. according to the video, this tiny building



is the only custom facility of the port.

Oh yeah, no deal is going to be fun.

[Slant]

Anyway, if they flat out reject the ECJ they'll just crash out with no transition, which will be a shitstorm for everyone.

Agreed. But once more, it'll be on them. You have to acknowledge the right of the EU member states to choose how to run the EU. An outsider has no say in the nature of the EU. That's the core lesson for the UK to learn here.

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is the only custom facility of the port.

Oh yeah, no deal is going to be fun.

Amazing, isn't it. How all that has been said 2 years ago is now repeated and people now realise "Oh shit, this is really happening!" I wonder how long it'll be before people actually realise the actual consequences.

I wager it'll hit British citizens most when they realise they need visas to go to Mallorca or Greece to get drunk and smash local pubs up. That'll be the day when they stand at the airport and go "What visa... I just want to go for a weekend and get drunk!"

Imagine the football fans. Manchester fans wanting to go see the Champions League in Madrid or Paris... and they have to book a fucking visa 3 months ahead. Good luck doing that for the semi finals, if they get that far, because those are really within a month of the quarters. Same with the final. Continental fans are lucky, they rarely have to get to the island outside of group stages these days. But the other side would have to go pretty much every single time they play at the opponent's.

[dribbles]

Errr lol?

Article 8 in its entirety -

"Article 8

1. The Union shall develop a special relationship with neighbouring countries, aiming to establish an area of prosperity and good neighbourliness, founded on the values of the Union and characterised by close and peaceful relations based on cooperation.

2. For the purposes of paragraph 1, the Union may conclude specific agreements with the countries concerned. These agreements may contain reciprocal rights and obligations as well as the possibility of undertaking activities jointly. Their implementation shall be the subject of periodic consultation."

Everything you posted above is pure bullshit. It doesn't have to conclude an agreement with the UK, it may do so, but it isn't a requirement.

It isn't about strict legal definitions though, more about the people in the UK's perception of who is to blame for a failed negotiation. Very few will read the whole of that treaty or paragraph 1 of Article 8 let alone the second. What is important here is the spin the media put on it as we prepare for a no deal. That has already started, more people will have read this article in todays news than a boring EU treaty in entirety.

EU PLONKERS EU could break its OWN laws if UK leaves with a no-deal Brexit

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/694887...o-deal-brexit/

Believe me, by March 2019 the majority in the UK will be prepared by the press to blame the EU for anything that goes wrong when we leave with no deal. They won't blame saintly brexiteers like me, who will be screaming from the rooftops about the evil EU. Sorry remainers you lost the referendum pre brexit, you are about to lose the aftermath post brexit too. Quite exquisite from my perspective watching suckers get suckered in real time. Got to love the will of the people...

[Huehuecoyotl]

It isn't about strict legal definitions though, more about the people in the UK's perception of who is to blame for a failed negotiation. Very few will read the whole of that treaty or paragraph 1 of Article 8 let alone the second. What is important here is the spin the media put on it as we prepare for a no deal. That has already started, more people will have read this article in todays news than a boring EU treaty in entirety.

EU PLONKERS EU could break its OWN laws if UK leaves with a no-deal Brexit

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/694887...o-deal-brexit/

Believe me, by March 2019 the majority in the UK will be prepared by the press to blame the EU for anything that goes wrong when we leave with no deal. They won't blame saintly brexiteers like me, who will be screaming from the rooftops about the evil EU. Sorry remainers you lost the referendum pre brexit, you are about to lose the aftermath post brexit too. Quite exquisite from my perspective watching suckers get suckered in real time. Got to love the will of the people...

So you've given up even pretending that Brexit is going to be anything other than a disaster and you're relying on a biased media managing to fool enough people to get the idiots organising Brexit off the hook. For you that can actually be considered progress. Well done.

[Vankrys]

It isn't about strict legal definitions though, more about the people in the UK's perception of who is to blame for a failed negotiation. Very few will read the whole of that treaty or paragraph 1 of Article 8 let alone the second. What is important here is the spin the media put on it as we prepare for a no deal. That has already started, more people will have read this article in todays news than a boring EU treaty in entirety.

EU PLONKERS EU could break its OWN laws if UK leaves with a no-deal Brexit

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/694887...o-deal-brexit/

Believe me, by March 2019 the majority in the UK will be prepared by the press to blame the EU for anything that goes wrong when we leave with no deal. They won't blame saintly brexiteers like me, who will be screaming from the rooftops about the evil EU. Sorry remainers you lost the referendum pre brexit, you are about to lose the aftermath post brexit too. Quite exquisite from my perspective watching suckers get suckered in real time. Got to love the will of the people...

there is no EU law that say EU must give in into every UK tantrum. There is however a reasonable expectation that the EU governing body will keep the best interest of the EU and its citizen during the negotiation, which is what's happening.

What? you've been fed so long that the EU is so incompetent they would be completely unable to negotiate. Ans now, you're literally screaming "NOT FAIR" when you find out the EU stand strong.

Negotiation is adversarial by nature. You blaming the EU for not getting a good deal means i should congratulate the EU in not caving to UK demand. Go ahead, blame away. Delicious tears.

[dribbles]

So you've given up even pretending that Brexit is going to be anything other than a disaster and you're relying on a biased media managing to fool enough people to get the idiots organising Brexit off the hook. For you that can actually be considered progress. Well done.

I don't believe it will be anything but an unmitigated success, however with a few hiccups on the way perhaps. The problem for me is the nonsense people with your viewpoint continually spout is dangerous and a threat that ought to be fairly or otherwise countered for the good of the nation. In other times and perhaps in the future the almost treasonous behaviour of remain traitors colluding with a foreign power will need to be answered.

there is no EU law that say EU must give in into every UK tantrum. There is however a reasonable expectation that the EU governing body will keep the best interest of the EU and its citizen during the negotiation, which is what's happening.

What? you've been fed so long that the EU is so incompetent they would be completely unable to negotiate. Ans now, you're literally screaming "NOT FAIR" when you find out the EU stand strong.

No no you have me wrong, the more the EU appears unreasonable the better for me in that aim of a sweet no deal Brexit.

You know what is interesting about those videos you linked about lorry tailbacks in the UK, you must know it would be replicated in Calais too? Being from France how exactly do you think French farmers will react when they can't get their perishable produce across the channel? The streets of Paris will look interesting full of tractors on a go slow in protest? That at a minimum for sure...

[Edge-]

people with your viewpoint continually spout is dangerous and a threat that ought to be fairly or otherwise countered for the good of the nation.

Holy shit dude, that was a hard-turn towards authoritarianism.