Mafia 109 - Game Thread - Russian Roulette

[Dendrek]

@Lysah I know you'll hate to do it, you'll drag your feet, crying that I'm being unreasonable, but can I get your reads list, please?

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@Crackleslap, mah boi. Who are your scum buddies?

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@Largehorn Can I get your reads list?

[Lysah]

I don't really bother town reading people at all. To me that feels more like WIFOM than anything else, "is this person contributing because they are town and trying to find scum or are they scum faking contributions to look like town trying to hunt scum." It's also ironically easier for scum to scum hunt since they know the alignment of all players in games with one scum team.

That being said I can give you my bigger scum reads. Danner is probably least scummy so far and pointed out the obvious but correct logic regarding Lora. Lora is playing extremely suspiciously but can't ignore the fact that he got a scum killed on day 2, even still he seems to be implying that he flat out lied to us on day 2 regarding his night action being random or not. Largehorn also pointed this out a bit ago which makes me want to put him lower down on the scum list. Dendrek is playing a pretty normal Dendrek game which doesn't really mean anything to me, this puts him and Graeham on about the same level as "not acting suspiciously yet" as far as I'm concerned.

Crackle hasn't said much, Virothe hasn't said much, listo hasn't said much that I remember, this puts them high as I actively suspect anyone who is being quiet. Bagel and Veredyn have both, in my opinion, held a few conversations without actually saying anything which is scummy to me, but I know this is usual for bagel and I think Veredyn is new or at least I haven't seen him before so not sure if that's just how he is too. Think I got everyone still alive in this post?

[listo95]

Marack(7) - Danner(#44), Veredyn(#100), Crackleslap(#107), Bageloaf(#122), Listo95(#128), Virothe(#129), Lysah(#143)
Virothe(5) - Lora(#6), Graeham(#95), Krayzy(#127), Dendrek(#139), Marack(#144)
Lora(2) - Largehorn(#7), Robozerim(#20)
Dupti(1) - Dupti(#1)

Krayzy(11) - Lora(#159), Graeham(#206), Largehorn(#213), Dendrek(#226), Danner(#238), Crackleslap(#248), Veredyn(#250), Dupti(#263), Virothe(#282), Lysah(#283), Listo95(#289)
Lysah(2) - Bageloaf(#161), Krayzy(#296)

So those are the 2 lynches that have occurred so far. Based on those the big question for helping me find scum is going to be Virothe's alignment. But based on these 2 lynches and not knowing what Virothe is as of now I would say these are my town reads.

Graeham, Dendrek, and maybe Large? Large is kinda I would say is my slightly leaning town.

Scum would have to be I think: Virothe, Lysah, and Crackle. Not any real reasons just they are in spots I would expect to find scum on trains.

[Dendrek]

Graeham, Dendrek, and maybe Large?

Thank you, Listo. I'm not sure I understand why you picked us three to be honest.

Looking at D1: There are only two "unconfirmed" players on Virothe's wagon, Graeham and me. And the last unconfirmed player who is not on Marack's train is Largehorn (who was voting for Lora). In other words, your three town reads were not on Marack's train. What I find interesting is that you seem to imply the remaining 4 scum are all on Marack's train. Why is that?

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@Virothe: Hi. Lora hasn't given any results yet. I can't imagine a more perfect time for you to do something that progresses the game. Considering how annoyed you were yesterday with what was happening, this is an ideal situation for you.

[listo95]

Thank you, Listo. I'm not sure I understand why you picked us three to be honest.

Looking at D1: There are only two "unconfirmed" players on Virothe's wagon, Graeham and me. And the last unconfirmed player who is not on Marack's train is Largehorn (who was voting for Lora). In other words, your three town reads were not on Marack's train. What I find interesting is that you seem to imply the remaining 4 scum are all on Marack's train. Why is that?

Like I said before. A big thing that would change that up depends on what Virothe flips as town we would know scum wouldn't care who got lynched in the end so they would likely be spread at that point. However if Virothe flips scum I feel like scum would have tried everything in their power to make sure that Marack had the greater odds of being lynched. Also I didn't realize my 3 town reads were the people not on Marack's train >.> Like I said I don't have many good reads with literally no one from the Marack train being dead yet.

[Dendrek]

Like I said before. A big thing that would change that up depends on what Virothe flips as town we would know scum wouldn't care who got lynched in the end so they would likely be spread at that point. However if Virothe flips scum I feel like scum would have tried everything in their power to make sure that Marack had the greater odds of being lynched. Also I didn't realize my 3 town reads were the people not on Marack's train >.> Like I said I don't have many good reads with literally no one from the Marack train being dead yet.

Fair enough. But if Virothe flips scum, that means scum piled up in an obvious way to save him. At least based on the logic you're applying here. (To note, I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm just trying to understand why this is the conclusion you came to.)

If Virothe flips town, would that change your reads on me, Graeham and Large?

[listo95]

Fair enough. But if Virothe flips scum, that means scum piled up in an obvious way to save him. At least based on the logic you're applying here. (To note, I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm just trying to understand why this is the conclusion you came to.)

If Virothe flips town, would that change your reads on me, Graeham and Large?

It would probably change everything to be fair. My lists are always changing on a day to day basis due to flips and trains. The only one who "might" stay leaning town in that case would be Graeham in that situation.

[Dendrek]

Veredyn have both, in my opinion, held a few conversations without actually saying anything which is scummy to me, but I know this is usual for bagel and I think Veredyn is new or at least I haven't seen him before so not sure if that's just how he is too.

I was about to call out Veredyn, so I figured I'd respond to this point while doing so.

Veredyn actually said a number of useful things yesterday. (Whether or not I agree with them is a different matter.) He wasn't super active, but he was engaged. He was analyzing and FoSing people, which is pretty rare for someone who is new to the community. So to say he hasn't done much isn't really fair. But with that said, I'm kind of leaning towards being suspicious of him as well. Though he's on the weaker side of my scum lean, for now.

@Veredyn can you provide your reads list? You labeled a number of players suspicious yesterday. Have your reads changed? Who would you most like to see lynched?

[Lora]

I don't really bother town reading people at all. To me that feels more like WIFOM than anything else, "is this person contributing because they are town and trying to find scum or are they scum faking contributions to look like town trying to hunt scum." It's also ironically easier for scum to scum hunt since they know the alignment of all players in games with one scum team.

That being said I can give you my bigger scum reads. Danner is probably least scummy so far and pointed out the obvious but correct logic regarding Lora. Lora is playing extremely suspiciously but can't ignore the fact that he got a scum killed on day 2, even still he seems to be implying that he flat out lied to us on day 2 regarding his night action being random or not. Largehorn also pointed this out a bit ago which makes me want to put him lower down on the scum list. Dendrek is playing a pretty normal Dendrek game which doesn't really mean anything to me, this puts him and Graeham on about the same level as "not acting suspiciously yet" as far as I'm concerned.

Crackle hasn't said much, Virothe hasn't said much, listo hasn't said much that I remember, this puts them high as I actively suspect anyone who is being quiet. Bagel and Veredyn have both, in my opinion, held a few conversations without actually saying anything which is scummy to me, but I know this is usual for bagel and I think Veredyn is new or at least I haven't seen him before so not sure if that's just how he is too. Think I got everyone still alive in this post?

i didnt lie at all.

[Dendrek]

It would probably change everything to be fair. My lists are always changing on a day to day basis due to flips and trains. The only one who "might" stay leaning town in that case would be Graeham in that situation.

Why Graeham?

[Nefarious Tea]

I'm working on it... been pretty busy today with trying to pack shit up today.

[listo95]

Why Graeham?

Being 2nd on the Krayzy vote would be the main reason. While it is possible he was doing some heavy bussing I just don't see it right now.

[Dendrek]

i didnt lie at all.

For now, I'd suggest not giving details about how your ability works. I personally do not think you lied (though the information I have is exactly the same as everyone else's). You said random. You didn't say ambiguous. Large and Lysah seem to be assuming there was some ambiguity to the result you received N1. That is something I sincerely doubt. Both because of how certain you were in your result, and because I doubt Kryllian would put a cop in a game that has 5 scum out of 15 players and then give that cop results they cannot trust.

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I'm working on it... been pretty busy today with trying to pack shit up today.

Don't worry. There's no rush. I just wanted to express my interest in your opinions.

[Nefarious Tea]

I was thinking Lora was town yesterday with the accurate claim on Krayzy... but he didn't get murdered last night so I think that's a fairly strong signal that he knew Krayzy's name and role because he's also mafia. Sacrificing Krayzy to throw us off the trail of the rest of the mafia is a really clever play, but made slightly weaker with how weakly Krayzy fought back. The biggest people dogpiling were Lora, Dendrek, and Dupti so that's mighty suspicious of the three of them in this interpretation. The latter two, however, could have just seen a weakness and exploited it. Certainly Dupti ended up town.

I think Virothe, Bageloaf, and Crackleslap are suspicious for not posting much. Flying under the radar is pretty standard mafia but could also be a doc or cop trying to stay out of the crosshairs. Bageloaf does have a history of random and immediate left field votes, like he's trying to start a train on townies, but maybe he's hoping to shotgun a mafia with the RNG lynch system. I thought for a while Largehorn might be mafia but I guess a random Lysah vote on day one isn't super indicative. He does strike me as a bit odd but this is the internet, where no one knows you're made of cups.


So my top three townies are probably: Lysah, Largehorn, and Dendrek

Top three mafia are: Lora, Virothe, and Bageloaf.

I think Veredyn is new or at least I haven't seen him before so not sure if that's just how he is too.

I'm about as new as one can get - I haven't played a game of Mafia since an old WoW guild died to Heroic Spine of Deathwing. We used to have small games with 2-3 mafia out of about eight people on our guild forum, so a starter pool of 15 is huge for me. I'm just trying to stay active in a thread where I don't know people well enough to even think about metagaming.

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Addendum: Dendrek also got pretty uppity about Krayzy's doc claim, which suggests he might be either the cop or doc.

[Dendrek]

I was thinking Lora was town yesterday with the accurate claim on Krayzy... but he didn't get murdered last night so I think that's a fairly strong signal that he knew Krayzy's name and role because he's also mafia. Sacrificing Krayzy to throw us off the trail of the rest of the mafia is a really clever play, but made slightly weaker with how weakly Krayzy fought back. The biggest people dogpiling were Lora, Dendrek, and Dupti so that's mighty suspicious of the three of them in this interpretation. The latter two, however, could have just seen a weakness and exploited it. Certainly Dupti ended up town.

Ignoring game-setup context, this is not an unreasonable theory. It's entirely reasonable to be suspicious of Lora in this situation. Why didn't he die last night? Of course, we know we have a doc, so it's possible the scum delayed going after Lora for one night in order to guarantee a kill for that night, and then go for Lora the next night.

Something I find interesting about your theory is this:

So my top three townies are probably: Lysah, Largehorn, and Dendrek

If you should be suspicious of Lora, you should absolutely be suspicious of me. If scum skipped Lora because they thought they couldn't kill him, then they should have killed me. The only reason to kill Dupti then is if they had a strong TPR read on him. If they did, I'm impressed (I personally did not). If they didn't, then why him and not me?

So why am I in your town list?

Addendum: Dendrek also got pretty uppity about Krayzy's doc claim, which suggests he might be either the cop or doc.

Does this have anything to do with your townread on me? Like I said, I should die soon regardless. But to call me out as a possible TPR is to paint a target on my back if there wasn't already one there. I'm curious why you'd point this out.

[Nefarious Tea]

@Dendrek You present very compelling arguments which I have yet to be able to poke holes in. Ergo, you're either town or I'm fucked.

[Dendrek]

@Dendrek You present very compelling arguments which I have yet to be able to poke holes in. Ergo, you're either town or I'm fucked.

Can you explain where your town read on me came from? Ignoring everything I just said (if that's even possible for you to do now) why was I town?

[Lysah]

i didnt lie at all.

Yesterday you said you had 100% confidence that Krayzy was scum, and that there was no RNG in your role at all despite Krayzy's claims that TPR might have RNG. Today you made a post implying the possibility that all powers might have RNG attached.

[Dendrek]

If Lora had said there was no RNG in his role yesterday, I'd have immediately stopped believing he was the cop.

[Lora]

Yesterday you said you had 100% confidence that Krayzy was scum, and that there was no RNG in your role at all despite Krayzy's claims that TPR might have RNG. Today you made a post implying the possibility that all powers might have RNG attached.

quote me where i said there was no rng. i'll wait.