Russia finds International Space Station hole was made deliberately

[caervek]

Actually it hasn't.

Yes it has, I even pointed out on the first page of this thread that this is an old story that was resolved weeks ago.

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I can't imagine astronauts from any of the countries wanting to risk anything by deliberately drilling a hole in this thing

It didn't happen up there, it happened on the ground back in May, however as the person responsible (who has since been identified so wont be employed anymore lol) sealed it up it wasn't discovered until August, when after two months in orbit the sealant apparently dried out and was expelled by the cabin air pressure, opening up a leak.

[Skroe]

Yes it has, I even pointed out on the first page of this thread that this is an old story that was resolved weeks ago.

And yet *points to my post*

It hasn't.

It's the latest line in the shakedown from a failing space program that is seeing its revenues dry up as SpaceX eats its lunch.

Let me just put this in the most brutal and effective way I can for people who know anything about space: when is Angara A5 actually going to fly again? And what will it cost compared to a more capable Falcon 9?

Yeah. He's Dead, Jim.

[caervek]

And yet *points to my post*

It hasn't.

It has, hence why your post looks so silly because it looks like the person writing the article you've copied has done no research, hence not knowing it's already been resolved and claiming the hole was in the ISS.

[Skroe]

It has, hence why your post looks so silly because it looks like the person writing the article you've copied has done no research, hence not knowing it's already been resolved and claiming the hole was in the ISS.

Keith Cowing is considered one of the foremost space industry journalists in the world. This has been his beat since the 1990s. Before that, he worked for NASA. He's not some random dude with a website.

You don't know the slightest bit what you're talking about.

[caervek]

You don't know the slightest bit what you're talking about.

Actually I do, I'll spell it out for you:

This thread is about a hole that was found on a Soyuz module docked at the ISS back in August, it's an old story which has been resolved but the British Tabloids (entertainment magazines that masquerade as newspapers) only got onto it a couple of weeks ago hence the Daily Fail article linked in the OP. On the first page of the thread it was established that the damage to the module was caused back in May by a negligent worker who then tried to cover up his mistake, and that he has since been identified (and presumably reprimanded). The problem wasn't discovered until August because the cover up involved sealant that didn't fail until a couple of months in space, and the problem has since been repaired successfully.

And that was basically it, thread resolved, until a few days later when you came in spraying your usually Russophobia and super patriotism, attempting to derail the thread into the death of the Russian space program, and quoting that biased/erroneous article by that Keith dude.

[Skroe]

Actually I do, I'll spell it out for you:

This thread is about a hole that was found on a Soyuz module docked at the ISS back in August, it's an old story which has been resolved but the British Tabloids (entertainment magazines that masquerade as newspapers) only got onto it a couple of weeks ago hence the Daily Fail article linked in the OP. On the first page of the thread it was established that the damage to the module was caused back in May by a negligent worker who then tried to cover up his mistake, and that he has since been identified (and presumably reprimanded). The problem wasn't discovered until August because the cover up involved sealant that didn't fail until a couple of months in space, and the problem has since been repaired successfully.

Which is not the point at all of what I posed, on both accounts. Things like this don't happen in functioning space programs, including that negligent worker who tried to cover it up. That is unthinkable in a healthy space program. Hell it is unthinkable in the Russian Space Program 15 years ago.

So thank you for actually making my case: this is about the decline of the Russian Space Program's industrial work force, which is what I was talking about quite clearly in my first post.

And that was basically it, thread resolved, until a few days later when you came in spraying your usually Russophobia and super patriotism, attempting to derail the thread into the death of the Russian space program, and quoting that biased/erroneous article by that Keith dude.

No, you're just being a Russian apologist as usual and your asinine covering up of the decline of the Russian Space program doesn't change the fact that that this kind of problem is precisely what is leading the decline. Fact is, this stuff doesn't happen and is indicative of the Russian Space program being in a bad way, which this "Keith dude", one of the foremost journalists for this type of thing, ya know, pretty much the expert, was discussing in his follow up piece.

The Russian Space Program is basically going bankrupt and looking for a bailout. Blaming problems on the West, especially as we are about to cash out of our support of them, is a great way to do it. Also highlighted in "that Keith dude's" posts.

[Mormolyce]

How is the first assumption not some kind of error? Doesn't even make sense as a conspiracy theory.

You misspelled 'The democratic party of america there.

What the fuck are you talking about?

[caervek]

Which is not the point at all of what I posed, on both accounts.

I know, hence me pointing out what you were saying was off topic >.>

No, you're just being a Russian apologist as usual

I hate to break this to you, but not blindly hating Russia and believing 'Murica = god doesn't make somebody a Russian apologist. This is one of the big problems you and Shackler have interacting on these forums, you seem to believe anyone who doesn't agree with your fringe views are against you (hence why you often flame the same people as Russian apologists and Russiophobes).

"Keith dude", one of the foremost journalists for this type of thing

If he wants to be a journalist then maybe he should refrain from including personal bias/politics in his articles. He may want to read some of the other articles linked in the thread like the spaceflightnow one, they managed to give a much better balances/unbiased coverage of the story and a month before his attempt.

[Skroe]

How is the first assumption not some kind of error? Doesn't even make sense as a conspiracy theory.



What the fuck are you talking about?

Russia was looking for someone to blame to cover up the fact that it's current space industry workforce aren't remotely up to their predecessors standards, or their Western peer's for that matter.

A hole was drilled by accident, and a worker tried to cover it up.

That doesn't happen. Let me put this in perspective. With NASA, every piece is weighed and tested again and again. Every component. Individually. As an aggregate. There are countless independent checks to everything. About 10 years ago now, Lockheed Martin got caught trying to build structural components of the Curiosity Rover (currently on mars) of slightly-below grade Titanium. Would the Titanium had been fine? Realistically speaking, yes. But it was below the spec requirement, and so - and this was years into construction - there was an additional $300 million charge to the program to disassemble the rover and replace all the titanium structural components with new ones that met the spec. It delayed launch by 18 months.

NASA caught this, late in the game. But it still caught it. Lockheed made a mistake and tried to paper over it. The system worked, caught it, and it was fixed before flight.

This patched hole here flew to the ISS, which means Russia's system for catching problems failed. On top of repeated failures of Proton and Soyuz stages, all together it just underscores the decline of a space program that, a decade and change ago, was in pretty good shape.

[caervek]

Things like this don't happen in functioning space programs

You're saying this is the first ever case of negligence in a space program? Really? :P

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A hole was drilled by accident, and a worker tried to cover it up.

He didn't try he succeeded, the patch passed inspection, just like it would have done at the ESA or NASA (as the only way to discover it was to cut out the section and look at the inside, and nobody randomly cuts chunks out of their spacecraft for no reason).

[Skroe]

I know, hence me pointing out what you were saying was off topic >.>

No. It was entirely on topic. And consistent with the topic: it's all indicative of the decline of Russia's space program.

I hate to break this to you, but not blindly hating Russia and believing 'Murica = god doesn't make somebody a Russian apologist.

Your posting history is quite clear. And this is so black and white the position you're asuming is farcical.

Healthy Space Programs don't allow worker cover-ups to get into space. You're arguing an absurdity. This is not some misassembled car or a GPU with a bad fan. This is a spacecraft. These are not mistakes that happen, and certainly not handled like this.

If he wants to be a journalist then maybe he should refrain from including personal bias/politics in his articles. He may want to read some of the other articles linked in the thread like the spaceflightnow one, they managed to give a much better balances/unbiased coverage of the story and a month before his attempt.

Ummm, he's an expert on these topics and has been covering them every day for over 20 years. And yeah, he offers his opinion, as an expert. You just don't like what you're reading.

Hence *points upward to prior quote*. Yeah.

I'll ask again, why isn't Angara A5 flying soon? I'll tell you why: it's because it's too expensive for Russia and agency leaders don't think they can build a new rocket and fly it safely because of the workforce issues. They don't want to blow up a launch pad. Building more Protons and Soyuzes, they'll do, because their simpler and more "known quantities" to the work force, than an all new rocket. And keep in mind, the Angara A1 and A5 were supposed to replace essentially all Russian rockets, years ago now.

And it isn't happening.

It's not because of the Rocket. Angara A5 is actually a fine design. It's pretty much a Russian Atlas V. It's very late to the game for what it is, and it's badly overpriced in the post-SpaceX Falcon 9 world, but it's a fine design on its own.

The problem is: the Russian Space industrial work force can't build them, at least at any rate that will allow retirement of the Soyuz2 and Proton as intended.

There is a direct line between an industrial workforce where covered up errors by workers like this actually fly into space and is responsible for repeated launch accidents over the last few years, and one that can't build new rockets. It all points to exactly the same thing: industrial decline.

[kenthovind]

Would not surprise me, Illuminati wants to collapse both China and Russia since they stand in their way of taking over Syria and Iran (natural resources).

[caervek]

No. It was entirely on topic. And consistent with the topic: it's all indicative of the decline of Russia's space program.

1: It wasn't on topic, you bumped the thread back to life just to derail it and take shots at Russia. If you want to discuss the decline of Russia's space program (which in fairness is still in muuuuuch better shape than the Soviet program they inherited) I suggest you make a thread for it.

2: This could just have easily happened at the ESA or NASA, all it requires is a worker of lax morales to make a mistake then cover it up in the hope it will never be discovered.

Your posting history is quite clear.

I know, I take shots at Russia, the USA and whoever else is in the wrong. Hence why I often end up getting called a Russophobe and a Putinista on the same day lol.

Healthy Space Programs don't allow worker cover-ups to get into space.

As above, this isn't something that could have possibly been discovered (hence why it's so bad that the **** covered it up), could just have easily happened to ESA/NASA/SpaceX.

[Skroe]

You're saying this is the first ever case of negligence in a space program? Really? :P

Of this nature? A worker covering something up? And then it actually *flying*? Nothing remotely resembling this has ever happened in the US Space Program or ESA.

Hell in the last year, a part of the James Webb Space telescope had to be disassembled and rebuilt because a worker accidentally installed the screws upside down. Again, caught. Not covered up. The Mars INSIGHT lander was delayed for 2 years in 2016 at the last minute because of a design problem with it's primary scientific payload that required a redesign. Caught.

Failures that the US does have in space are usually something systemic that isn't the fault of any one individual, and usually is the result of system-wide oversight. A good example of this was the problem with Hubble's mirror that required correction. Another is with foam falling off the tank of the Space Shuttle - a known issue for years but hundreds of launches dismissed it as a minor concern. These types of things are very different than what I'm talking about. And in the latter case, let's recall, return to flight after Columbia came in two stages. There was the first launch, and when foam still fell off in excess of what was predicted, return to flight was delayed yet another year for another correction, which fixed the issue.

That is how healthy space programs tackle problems.



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He didn't try he succeeded, the patch passed inspection, just like it would have done at the ESA or NASA (as the only way to discover it was to cut out the section and look at the inside, and nobody randomly cuts chunks out of their spacecraft for no reason).

Jesus Christ on the cross....

What you're describing here never would have even happened at ESA or NASA. It never would have been patched and needed to be discovered later. Managers would have caught it before it was integrated. And want to know why they wouldn't have had to cut out a section? Because they X-ray and use other scanning and measurement technologies (lasers) to make sure every piece fits the spec perfectly. Fun fact about your random space probe. Building them is pretty cheap. Measuring, confirming, testing and verying every component, no matter how small? That's hard. That's expensive. And very time consuming.

The way you talk you act like this is shop class. It's a bit more than that. These things get caught. That's why it's outrageous it even happened. Something you're evidently, quite okay with excusing.

And that is why Russia will never go beyond low Earth Orbit.

[ipaq]

Haha classic case of Whataboutism.
We are done here.

Done?

Not even near.

200k+ civilian japanese women, children, and old people nuked instead of their military.

You haven't won a war you started since your civil war.

Trump is the USA the World sees for more than 100y. Only now you're figuring out that you're failures taking credit from winners.

[Skroe]

1: It wasn't on topic, you bumped the thread back to life just to derail it and take shots at Russia. If you want to discuss the decline of Russia's space program (which in fairness is still in muuuuuch better shape than the Soviet program they inherited) I suggest you make a thread for it.

I've had a busy week. I was @'d a few days ago. I elected to respond now. Deal with it.

2: This could just have easily happened at the ESA or NASA, all it requires is a worker of lax morales to make a mistake then cover it up in the hope it will never be discovered.

Not, it couldn't have "just as easily happened at the ESA and NASA", because our workforces don't do that. They have a higher standard, better training, better pay, and a system which catches errors. That's precisely the issue at hand here.

I just want you to understand, when you say "just as easily happened at the ESA and NASA", it's complete nonsense. Those agencies have had their own problems. They don't have this one, and this one is really bad.

I know, I take shots at Russia, the USA and whoever else is in the wrong. Hence why I often end up getting called a Russophobe and a Putinista on the same day lol.

I mean, you have a history of picking weird and pointless hills to die on.

This is one. Fact is, NASA's severely declining confidence in the Russian Space Program for reasons entirely unrelated to non-Space Russian/US issiues is indicative of the seriousness of the concerns I've expressed that this incident underscores.

Basically they're rushing Commercial Crew from SpaceX and Boeing, the first of which launches in June 2019, because they know Russia is pretty much counting the days now until it loses a crew on a Soyuz. Either going up or coming down.

Russia's space workforce is deeply troubled. It's bizarre you seem hell bent on downplaying it with this silly "just as easily happened at the ESA and NASA". Well no, it couldn't. For a lot of reason.

As above, this isn't something that could have possibly been discovered (hence why it's so bad that the **** covered it up), could just have easily happened to ESA/NASA/SpaceX.

Bullshit. It would have been discovered before it was integrated, and a worker never would have done it in the first place. In the Lockheed Martin example, there was no indication in the investigation that ensued that anyone working with Curiosity knew the titanium was just below the required grade. It was either ordered by Lockheed management to cut costs or was intentionally or purposefully mislabeled by their raw materials supplier.

Intentional coverups like this for errors made by workers? No. They don't happen, and any mistake of this type gets caught before integration. The screws on the JWST example I provided is indicative of that.

[Deleted]

Yeah let's talk about whats going on here.

The first thing you need understand is that the production time for space hardware is extremely long. Basically 5 years for most things. Not uncommonly, closer to 10. Over the next few years there are rockets and payloads that will be launched that were constructed back in 2013 and 2014. Some of the components for the most important space hardware could have been manufactured many years ago (such as James Webb Space Telescope pieces being manufactured back in 2009).

The second thing you need to understand is that Russia has experienced truly epic industrial decline, particularly when it comes to space hardware, over the last 15 years as what was left of its Soviet-era workforce finally retired. When the Soviet Union fell, the United States moved heaven and Earth to make sure that while the rest of the fomrer USSR entered an economic depression, that those rocket and space factories would stay open and it's workers - from engineers to weilders - would remain gainfully employed. The US did this because it was concerned that, should those workers find unemployment was in their future, they'd be poached by China, Iran, North Korea, Iraq, Syria, Cuba, Libya and Pakistan. Some Soviet scientists and engineers did find there way to those places. But the US effort was largey successful. The ISS - formerly Space Station Freedom - was largely a part of that effort, as it mereged the SSF concept with some aspects of Mir-2. In no small part to keep the Russian Space agency in business.

But time happened, and now those engineers and production people who were in their 30s and 40s in the 1980s are in their 60s and 70s today.

Most of them have retired by now. And a lot of institutional knowledge was lost.

In any big project, there is the written spec, set by the design team. But the production team on the floor knows things that exist outside the spec... perhaps even tricks to complete tasks to produce faster and/or safer. These things are rarely written down. They are passed from experienced worker to novice.

The financial problems of the Russian Space Agency, coupled with the retirements has wiped out decades of institutional knowledge that will be impossible to recover. As a result Russia is seeing repeated rocket failures, production delays and major fabrication errors.... all for rockets that have only been iterated on for decades and aren't at all clean sheet, new designs.

Furthermore SpaceX has largely wiped out the Russian commercial launch service option, draining the Russian Space Program of direly needed funds.


So what is going on here? The decline of Russia is being felt first at the most high tech aspect of its industrial portfolio. It will get worse and spread, particularly if Russia seeks to become involved in future multinational projects.

Russia is saying it was made deliberately to cover for its own failure of course. But the fact is, it inherited a world class space program and that inheritance has largely been pissed away.

It's likely that post-ISS, Russia will do little more in space than fly a Soyuz once a year to show the flag, perhaps to a Chinese Space Station. As it stands right now, it cannot afford to be part of the Lunar Orbital Platform-Gateway program.

Great post, but no mention of corruption?


Wasn't there pics of baikanor director driving a diamond encrusted mercedes not too long ago?

http://siberiantimes.com/other/other...ed-in-belarus/

[Shibito]

Tyranids finally reached Terra?!

[Skroe]

Great post, but no mention of corruption?


Wasn't there pics of baikanor director driving a diamond encrusted mercedes not too long ago?

Corruption is at the root of it of course. In a sense, what befell the Russian Space Program is similar to what befell United Launch Alliance in the US.

Back in the day, seats on the Soyuz cost $21 million. Right now, they cost about $80 million. In 2016, Russia raised prices by 372%.
https://www.businessinsider.com/spac...t-soyuz-2016-9



Also back in the day, Russian Proton and Soyuz rockets were among the most affordable in the world for launching commercial payloads ($70-110 million). This is important, because the Russian Space Program is not fully taxpayer subsizied. It's a strange public-private thing... a state owned entity with management and mangerial overlap between the Space Agency Roscosmos, and its manufacturers. So it has long relied on commercial launches, plus NASA money, along with its share of the Russian Federal budget, to pay for everything.

And what did it do? Blew it all. It came up with a lot of concepts for next generation launches and vehicles. But no flight hardware besides solitary Angara A1 and A5 launch. Their new Cosmodrome is years behind schedule.

When times were good, instead of investing in itself, the program, namely its leaders, profiteered. Billions of dollars were siphoned off. ULA did something similar in the US, though without the corruption per se. It enjoyed its de facto government subsidy as the sole launch provider for medium and heavy space missions, and profiteered and did not invest, until SpaceX came along with superior technology, and ULA found itself 10 years behind the curve.

Today, Russia's commercial launches have dried up, and NASA astronauts will stop flying on Soyuz in the next couple of years. The Russian Space program has seen an aggregate 45% budget cut over the last few years. Workers are getting laid off and facilities closed.

ULA for its part, is seeing a similar thing go on. It's share of Government launches has dried up as SpaceX offered the government an unbeatable price. The Atlas V will be gone in a few years. The Delta IV a few years after that. The Delta II flew its last flight last month.

Both Russia's space program and ULA are alike in that they profiteered when times were good, and now that a competitor is devouring them, and they have bleak future prospects, their ability to invest into a healthier, sustainable future is sharply curtailed. The Russian Space program needs billions of dollars it will never get. ULA, in order to compete with SpaceX, needs billions of dollars, and years it doesn't have. Why would anyone fly on a $110 million Vulcan-Centaur rocket, when they can fly for $60 million million on a Falcon 9? Even for government, with its insurance requirements for National Security Missions, tops out at $90 million for SpaceX.

I've been predicting for the past two years that what will happen around 2021, is SpaceX will keep dropping its Falcon 9 prices (as it already has), and the Air Force, which is in bed with them now, will express no interest in the ULA Vulcan-Centaur, especially once Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin starts flying reusable rockets at a price similar to SpaceX. I think ULA will largely leave the launch market, and maybe just focus on upper stages. It will do it because it won't have the cash on hand to invest in technologies to compete with the market leaders.

I think something similar will happen with the Russian Space Program. It won't get the billions it needs, which means it'll probably cut its losses and focus on a core rocket of two or three Soyuz variants (and retire the Proton rocket line), and abandon Angara entirely.

Profiteering... however it is done, it's invariably ruinous. ULA and the Russian Space Program are not the first dominant market players who have seen their entire position evaporate due to profiteering.

[caervek]

200k+ civilian japanese women, children, and old people nuked instead of their military.

Okay firstly 200k is a LOT better than the 10-15 million that would have died in the invasion of Japan had the nukes not forced a surrender. Secondly that happened after the emperor called the people to arms to defend the empire (effectively conscripting anyone over the age of 12). Thirdly, this is even more off topic than Skroe's rant.

You haven't won a war you started since your civil war.

That's not true, they beat Iraq in 2003, Afghanistan in 2001, Grenada in 1983, et al.