BFA subs, and someone's probably getting fired

[Lochton]

Gold is still subscription, but it could be just Americans.

It was explained a while back that tokens didn't count as subscribers.

[Siglius]

So let me get this straight. What we're discussing is WeakAuras saying that someone else told them that a third someone said that there was a leak regarding the numbers, with no specificity and no picture that either the second or third party even exist?

This is some high quality shitposting lmao.

Edit: Not your post. I meant the OP and the Weakaura stuff.

[Mixxy]

So let me get this straight. What we're discussing is WeakAuras saying that someone else told them that a third someone said that there was a leak regarding the numbers, with no specificity and no picture that either the second or third party even exist?

That's correct. I can't believe people aren't more skeptical of this.

[Lochton]

As a whole? Hell no. Certain people within the playerbase? Sure.

Yeah, no thanks to the 'whole' of the fan base bit.

[Gorsameth]

Yes and no.

Same as the past 4 expansions in overall trend, but the 50% drop this quick is new, and the starting number is much lower (so there wasn't as much excitement for BfA even at launch despite the PR Blizz tried pushing).

Also, from an overall trend, the OP is more accurate than you think. Subs were (supposedly) as high as 12.5 million back in Wrath / early Cata (supposedly because if you look at the financials at that time, revenue didn't match the concept of 12.5 million, closer to about 9 million at that time at best). If they really are down below 2 million subs, then Blizz may very well be looking to scrap WoW in the next few years (they may try one last hoorah expansion). They have other properties that likely make a lot more money for them than WoW if the subscriptions are heading to sub-1 million in a few more years (perhaps even before the end of this expansion).

Yes, Blizzard is looking to scrap WoW in a few years, despite still being the most successful MMO in existence...
Record for total number of sales at expansion launch. But hey, better quit, lolz.

Do you even read what your saying?

[stormgust]

Literally impossible, because BFA's launch sales were 3.4 mil just on one day, so for the subscriptions at launch to be 3.2mil 200k people who bought the game would have to be sub-less and that's without preorders and so on.

What is the source for the claim, that those 3.4 mil do not include preorders?

[Super Dickmann]

What is the source for the claim, that those 3.4 mil do not include preorders?

I corrected myself on that, it's with preorders, but it's without sales past day 1. See my post regarding the Mists week 1 sales and its later playerbase.

[Triggered Fridgekin]

I mean, okay, lets say we can take this report for their word and assume that it's even just one region. That's still *1.5 million subs lost in two months so it doesn't look great even when we look at the ebb and flow of MMO subscription cycles.

But like anything else when it comes to "leaks" he sums it up best:

the original post with those findings has since been deleted, not sure if because Blizzard threatened to sue or because it was false data.
keep that in mind before spreading this as a fact. Just because something ended up being written on the internet, does not mean it's true.

[Arainie]

3.4 million copies sold doesn't mean there would be 3.4 million subs at release. I know it sounds crazy, but some people might actually buy the game and then not play at release. I was sort of on the fence about playing BFA, and I almost didn't because of real life stuff, but I had preordered months before with battlenet balance that I got through WoW gold. So it's possible some people preordered months ago and then just didn't bother to sub for launch.

For those numbers to be even close to true, the first measurement had to be taken either exactly at release day and not a week or two later. History has shown us that the early sub number is usually 2-3 times higher than the release day sales (including rumored Legion & BfA numbers), so all the (other than this supposed leak) anecdotal evidence we can collect directly opposes these numbers. China is also most likely not included as they traditionally haven't been, but I personally believe this is either region specific or excludes token game time. You're free to believe what you want, but I doubt we'll ever really find out.

[Enfilade]

Oof, that's rough. Looks like a lot of people doing the "WoD 2.0" chant aren't too far off the mark.

That's disrespectful to WoD. BfA makes WoD look like a great expansion.

[Laqweeta]

So let me get this straight. What we're discussing is WeakAuras saying that someone else told them that a third someone said that there was a leak regarding the numbers, with no specificity and no picture that either the second or third party even exist?



Okay, and? That doesn't dispute the point made about how many people bought it and were playing it and assumes no purchases happened after the fact. Mists sold 2.7mil but at its lowest it had 7 million, so clearly further people purchased it after the fact.

WeakAuras explained BfA started at 3.2M though.

- - - Updated - - -

As a whole? Hell no. Certain people within the playerbase? Sure.

Agree with this 100%.

[anveena]

Not surprising at all. The bfa launch was rushed and awful. Looks like this xpack will end up being worse than WoD was.

[Gorsameth]

As a pure sub number maybe....but if I have gold and buy time they only made money from the person that purchased the token.

Which as low as the gold amount is I can't imagine they are selling a lot of tokens now. I sure wouldn't buy one for what 110k gold.

a month of sub costs 15 bucks. a token costs 20 bucks.
Every month of sub you buy with a token earns Blizzard 5 bucks more then they would have made if you just strait up bought a sub.
You might not be paying Blizzard, but someone else is paying them more.

Token subs are better for Blizzard then regular subs.

[Pratt]

50% drop is the important bit.

[SirCowdog]

It was explained a while back that tokens didn't count as subscribers.

I generally tend to disagree with Blizzard on a lot of things, but the subscription number thing is pretty inaccurate these days due to their business model. Subscription fees are only one aspect of multi-faceted design. Even if a person maintains their sub with gold, there could still be several times the $15/mo fee from race/faction swaps, character boosts, cash-shop mounts and pets, or server transfers.

It's not that subs aren't important; because they ARE a good measure of overall health of the game. But when speaking in terms of pure income, it's only a single part of a larger equation.

[SL1200]

Pretty sure falsely reporting sales figures on earnings calls would land them in significant hot water once the bean counters started adding things up. Investors tend not to like being fibbed to about money matters.

You're sure? You know this as fact? Or you're pretty sure? Honestly I don't know what the facts are. I find it hard to believe Bfa sold more copies than the previous expansions. Wow is more popular than ever? I highly doubt it.

[Super Dickmann]

WeakAuras explained BfA started at 3.2M though.

No, they didn't. They said that someone else told them that someone at Blizzard leaked that there were 3.2 million subscriptions at launch somewhere. Conveniently, no evidence of any party exists, but this data does say that 50% use WeakAuras, so you better DL it.

[Triggered Fridgekin]

That's disrespectful to WoD. BfA makes WoD look like a great expansion.

Speaking for myself I really hate WoD. It killed my guild which was around since early TBC and has ultimately changed my interest in the game as a whole especially with raiding. However, in spite of how bad it was and how bitter it has made me it at least held my subscription for more than one month whereas BFA hasn't that says a lot.

- - - Updated - - -

3.2m - 1.7m isn't 500k

Oh Gosh LOL Thought I saw 2.7m. My bad.

[SirCowdog]

a month of sub costs 15 bucks. a token costs 20 bucks.
Every month of sub you buy with a token earns Blizzard 5 bucks more then they would have made if you just strait up bought a sub.
You might not be paying Blizzard, but someone else is paying them more.

Token subs are better for Blizzard then regular subs.

That's....not actually how token sales work in WoW. You are not buying a token directly from another player. The buying and selling of tokens is separated. The number of purchases/sales effects the prices, but it's not a 1:1 ratio. The price of tokens fluctuates based on an algorithm that tracks traffic, and adjusts the price accordingly. It's kind of shady, since the price are not set by players, nor do we have any insight into the black box that controls the prices.

This was explained at one point by a blue post. I can look it up and post if you really want. But the only time Blizzard gets $20 instead of $15 is when someone buys a gold token.

[Flarelaine]

It was explained a while back that tokens didn't count as subscribers.

Could be, I never paid much attention to tokens.