View Poll Results: 10 days left, what'll it be?

Voters
92. This poll is closed
  • Hard Brexit (crash out)

    45 48.91%
  • No Brexit (Remain by revoking A50)

    24 26.09%
  • Withdrawal Agreement (after a new session is called)

    0 0%
  • Extension + Withdrawal Agreement

    3 3.26%
  • Extension + Crashout

    9 9.78%
  • Extension + Remain

    11 11.96%
  1. #8161
    I am Murloc!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    .... It's in her power to do a complete 180° at a moment's notice.

    Is it likely? Considering her stubborness and utter ignorance of how the EU operates, no. It's not likely at all. But she could. Absolutely.
    but she has no mandate to do that 180 turn ? can she go rogue, sack DUP and call upon Corbyn etc. to back a soft deal ? she will have to step down afterwards of course, but she would save an orderly Brexit.
    or she is very brave and pulls the ultimate stunt and calls for a vote to exit from brexit, because nothing else would work

  2. #8162
    You don't listen. This is a historical moment. May can do whatever the hell she thinks is right. She can cave and surrender completely to the suggestions of the EU. That is her perogative as head of state. Negotiators being called off are a strong indication of what's going to happen, but they do not actually decide anything. They just prepare.

    It is stubbornness and ignorance. And I'll add a lack of spine to that as well. She should have realised from the beginning that this was a gordic knot and she should have told the British people that they fucked up and it could not be done, at least not the way they wanted it to be done. But instead she fell into the spineless habit of all British premiers and blamed the EU for everything. Her career dies tomorrow. And good riddance, too. She was too greedy for a PM job that she's clearly not qualified for. But how she enjoyed the spotlight.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by ranzino View Post
    but she has no mandate to do that 180 turn ? can she go rogue, sack DUP and call upon Corbyn etc. to back a soft deal ? she will have to step down afterwards of course, but she would save an orderly Brexit.
    or she is very brave and pulls the ultimate stunt and calls for a vote to exit from brexit, because nothing else would work
    Yes, sure she can. She's the premier, she can tell the DUP to fuck off and have a minority Government with the support of Corbyn. She can also agree to anything the EU says. Whether or not she'll get that through the commons is another issue, but it would buy them more time.

    I doubt that stork has the spine to call off Brexit. She'll cling to the post for as long as she can. I mean, I used to pity her, doing a shite job nobody else wanted. But she's shite at doing the shite job, too. When she said the EU disrespected her, she lost my respect.
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  3. #8163
    theresa may is the least toxic tory 'leader' to the electorate.

    she'll stay until after march 2019, or there will be a GE.

    one of those two outcomes, and if she stays until march 2019 it's EFTA likely

  4. #8164
    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    You don't listen. This is a historical moment. May can do whatever the hell she thinks is right. She can cave and surrender completely to the suggestions of the EU. That is her perogative as head of state. Negotiators being called off are a strong indication of what's going to happen, but they do not actually decide anything. They just prepare.

    It is stubbornness and ignorance. And I'll add a lack of spine to that as well. She should have realised from the beginning that this was a gordic knot and she should have told the British people that they fucked up and it could not be done, at least not the way they wanted it to be done. But instead she fell into the spineless habit of all British premiers and blamed the EU for everything. Her career dies tomorrow. And good riddance, too. She was too greedy for a PM job that she's clearly not qualified for. But how she enjoyed the spotlight.
    I'll assume this was for me.
    I do listen. Whatever deal she reaches is subject to parliament approval. She can't just decide to throw shit around and see if it sticks. That's not how politics work. Germany is so efficient because you have a system based on reasonable discussions and negotiations at every level before anything is ratified. May saying tomorrow that she has decided to change the constitution and make NI a province of the RoI will be met by the 10 dudes from the DUP blocking her vote.
    Before the snap election she might have gotten away with it. Now she doesn't have a majority. Her own party doesn't even agree on what they want.

    I'll be cynical and I've said this before, but I don't think she cares all that much. She became prime minister, the highest office she can get as a politician. She will say she tried and blame the dumbwits in her party for being unrealistic and move on to consulting, lobbying or just enjoy life on her PM pension. She know from the start she wouldn't come out as a saviour from this shitshow.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Floopa View Post
    theresa may is the least toxic tory 'leader' to the electorate.

    she'll stay until after march 2019, or there will be a GE.

    one of those two outcomes, and if she stays until march 2019 it's EFTA likely
    Nobody wants, or should, take over at this stage.

  5. #8165
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    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ure-trade-deal

    Theresa May has been told that it is up to her to deliver a “creative solution” to break the impasse that threatens to leave Wednesday’s “moment of truth” Brexit summit of EU leaders collapsing around her.

    Plans to outline a future trade deal during a leaders’ dinner on Wednesday night, a long-sought demand of Downing Street, have been scrapped. Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, said the UK government had also failed to meet the conditions necessary for a special November Brexit summit to be called.

    Tusk delivered his ultimatum despite the fact that May appears to remain in an impossible political position at home and unable to deliver progress on the crucial issue of the Northern Ireland-only backstop.


    without a november summit to drag it out for additional weeks it is really "last PM standing" tomorrow. she will spill the beans or the EU 27 dinner (sorry, no seat for Theresa) kills any orderly brexit. EU will not break down on any red lines.

  6. #8166
    Quote Originally Posted by ranzino View Post
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ure-trade-deal

    Theresa May has been told that it is up to her to deliver a “creative solution” to break the impasse that threatens to leave Wednesday’s “moment of truth” Brexit summit of EU leaders collapsing around her.

    Plans to outline a future trade deal during a leaders’ dinner on Wednesday night, a long-sought demand of Downing Street, have been scrapped. Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, said the UK government had also failed to meet the conditions necessary for a special November Brexit summit to be called.

    Tusk delivered his ultimatum despite the fact that May appears to remain in an impossible political position at home and unable to deliver progress on the crucial issue of the Northern Ireland-only backstop.


    without a november summit to drag it out for additional weeks it is really "last PM standing" tomorrow. she will spill the beans or the EU 27 dinner (sorry, no seat for Theresa) kills any orderly brexit. EU will not break down on any red lines.
    The EU won't break red lines, and neither will the UK. It might have been beneficial to accept that from the start instead of fucking around trying to agree on the impossible.

  7. #8167
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    geeez is there any reason left to rush to Brussels tomorrow for May ? i would call in sick and tell the tories to fuck off.

  8. #8168
    Quote Originally Posted by ranzino View Post
    geeez is there any reason left to rush to Brussels tomorrow for May ? i would call in sick and tell the tories to fuck off.
    I think the crux of the matter is the EU has pretended to play ball for so long hoping May would do just that. Because clearly Brussels won't budge.
    Now we can all go home, stop holding our breath, wish the UK good luck and finalize the preparations for the shitstorm that's coming. At least there will be some clarity.

  9. #8169
    Quote Originally Posted by Demolitia View Post
    I think the crux of the matter is the EU has pretended to play ball for so long hoping May would do just that. Because clearly Brussels won't budge.
    Now we can all go home, stop holding our breath, wish the UK good luck and finalize the preparations for the shitstorm that's coming. At least there will be some clarity.
    "Pretended to play ball" is a nasty lie. They have set out the boundaries they're willing to negotiate in from the start, they were largely ignored by the UK from the start, too. So sticking to your principles is now "pretending to play ball"? That's a dishonest statement if ever I've seen one.
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  10. #8170
    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    "Pretended to play ball" is a nasty lie. They have set out the boundaries they're willing to negotiate in from the start, they were largely ignored by the UK from the start, too. So sticking to your principles is now "pretending to play ball"? That's a dishonest statement if ever I've seen one.
    It's not a nasty lie. The Eu set out the boundaries, the UK did too. It feels like for the whole time both side worked on the common grounds, which were sorted out a year ago. The only real sticking point was the irish border, and no progress has been made there.
    I'm not being cynical here. It just feels as if both sides have waiting for the other to break their principles, instead of just saying let's go EFTA, or let's end this.
    Maybe I'm phrasing it in a way that feels dishonest but the last year has been pretty much a waiting game.

  11. #8171
    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    Yes, I am. What exactly makes you think it is more likely that the NHS would be privatised post Brexit? How does EU membership prevent the privatisation of health services?

    Regardless what might or might not happen with the UUP they are Unionists, like the DUP, they will not do anything that threatens to break up the union.

    The majority of what you have written is inaccurate, Northern Ireland's unemployment rate is 4.3% (compared to 6.1% in RoI) which is 0.3% higher than the UK average but the poverty rate in Northern Ireland of 19% is lower than England (21%) and Wales (24%) and the same as Scotland. The UK subsidies Northern Ireland to the tune of £6billion per annum and, as part of the UK, NI pays £374million (based on 2015 figures) into the EU which it gets £320million (mostly in CAP payments) in return.
    Because plenty of Tories would like to do it and now they're free to write the sort of trade deals that allow them to. Other EU members would have held them back in the past but now they just need to find willing partners and some in the US seem interested.

    RE Unionists - The Tories are also interested in protecting the union but that has not stopped them taking decisions that put it in danger. I don't think the UUP or DUP would intentionally risk the union but I don't trust the bumbling idiots not to.

    I misread an image here. Poverty is above Scotland and below Wales and England but unemployment is higher than all three:
    https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/povert...n-ireland-2018

    And I'm taking my stats on NI's 3.5m over 7 years from the EU's Eurostat here:
    https://ec.europa.eu/unitedkingdom/s...014-2020_1.pdf

    In the end though it just looks like I consider the Tories to be more mendacious, the Unionists much less in control of events than they seem to think and the situation in NI to be more potentially volatile than you do.

  12. #8172
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    Quote Originally Posted by ctd123 View Post
    Name the contingencies and how they will work.
    Their contingency plans are quite simple. They involve moving their money offshore, preferably to somewhere with no extradition treaties, then going to where that money is.

    Oh, you meant contingency plans for the nation? No such thing exists.

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  13. #8173
    Quote Originally Posted by Soxoffender View Post
    Because plenty of Tories would like to do it and now they're free to write the sort of trade deals that allow them to. Other EU members would have held them back in the past but now they just need to find willing partners and some in the US seem interested.

    RE Unionists - The Tories are also interested in protecting the union but that has not stopped them taking decisions that put it in danger. I don't think the UUP or DUP would intentionally risk the union but I don't trust the bumbling idiots not to.

    I misread an image here. Poverty is above Scotland and below Wales and England but unemployment is higher than all three:
    https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/povert...n-ireland-2018

    And I'm taking my stats on NI's 3.5m over 7 years from the EU's Eurostat here:
    https://ec.europa.eu/unitedkingdom/s...014-2020_1.pdf

    In the end though it just looks like I consider the Tories to be more mendacious, the Unionists much less in control of events than they seem to think and the situation in NI to be more potentially volatile than you do.
    You've provided four(or was it five?) names that support NHS privatisation, one is a soon to be ex-MEP and another is no longer a member of the Con party or an MP. However if so many Tories are up for privatising the NHS why have they not done so already? Why do they need to wait to write certain trade deals? And what the UK does or does not do with the NHS is absolutely nothing to with other EU members so I have no idea how you reached the conclusion that the Tories were held back by them.

    The fact of the matter is that there is little evidence that NHS privatisation is widely supported within the Tory party as a whole or if there was that they would act on it. In reality any party that tries to get rid of the NHS is a party that is making itself completely unelectable.

    What decisions have the Tories taken that puts the union in danger? They have rejected the EU's offer to move the Irish border to sea in between NI and the mainland and have so far (although this may change) stood by their assertion that NI must be treated the same as the rest of the UK despite the fact that it risks a no-deal Brexit.

    Unemployment may be higher, by all of 0.3%, but it is still almost 2% below that of the Republic and has recently seen the lowest rates in a decade.

    And? That still does not change the fact that the rest of the UK subsidies Northern Irish public services by over twelve times that amount each and every year or that the money NI's rich land owners receive from the EU essentially balances out what it pays in.

    The situation in NI is certainly volatile but whilst unionists continue to comprise the majority the prospect of NI leaving the UK is low.

  14. #8174
    Quote Originally Posted by Demolitia View Post
    It's not a nasty lie. The Eu set out the boundaries, the UK did too. It feels like for the whole time both side worked on the common grounds, which were sorted out a year ago. The only real sticking point was the irish border, and no progress has been made there.
    I'm not being cynical here. It just feels as if both sides have waiting for the other to break their principles, instead of just saying let's go EFTA, or let's end this.
    Maybe I'm phrasing it in a way that feels dishonest but the last year has been pretty much a waiting game.
    The EU didn't decide to do this. It never for a second felt like there was common ground. From second one Northern Ireland has been a problem. But certain people chose to ignore it. So great, the UK did the 80% that were easy. Now they should do the 20% that are hard. Oh, they can't? Well thanks for putting so much effort into the easy 80%. The EU is now the mean guy, because they kept reminding the UK to find a solution for Nothern Ireland, since everything the EU is suggesting apparently is unaccpeptable. So now you go the EU is "pretending to play ball"? Really? They've told the UK this before the referendum. They've told the UK at the beginning of the negotiations. They have told the UK during the negotiations.

    How much telling does the UK need to realise that yes, there is a problem. And no, it's not the EU's job to figure out problems for the UK that are largely an internal issue to the UK and most of all, created by the UK itself.

    The EU's job is not to babysit its member states.

    I have no idea why I have to keep repeating this every page or so. All of these considerations should have been done by a sovereign nation that wants to be treated like a serious player in global politics. That the UK is now surprised at the development is... shameful. The EU has offered what I think is a shitty compromise, but probably the best that prevents a hard border on NI and doesn't quite outright break the Union of the UK. Have a backstop, implement custom controls in the Irish Sea... yes, it'll feel weird, but...

    Get this, the UK's counter proposal? Put the entire UK in the customs union for goods. Are they on drugs or something? Do they think they can somehow use the Irish situation to circumvent the EU's mantra "the single market consists of all four freedoms, not just one" with that douchebag trickery? Seriously?

    And you say the EU is "pretending to play ball". Are you mad?

    We'll see how that pans out, I don't see that "whole UK solution" getting any serious attention. Even if the EU agrees, May would never get that through the commons, even a continental fascist like I can see that without binoculars. :P

    (Because I can't assume a mature level of understanding on this forum from some people, the last bit about me being a fascist was sarcasm. Obviously.)
    Last edited by Slant; 2018-10-16 at 10:02 PM.
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  15. #8175
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    Quote Originally Posted by CostinR View Post
    It's hard to say really. Does anyone want her job? It's a disaster regardless of how you view it.

    There's no package May can present that has a chance in hell of passing a parliamentary vote.
    i would take the pay check.

    hell ill even turn up to PMQ and just sit there blowing raspberries at old jezzah for a few hours, literally.

    i would also implement my priority policy's
    1# give a permit for fracking around jeramy's mouth so we can use that natural gas.
    2# ban any one born into a family with a joint income over 40k from wearing a flat cap
    3# ban any one who follows a religion or disagrees with LGBTQ+ or Women's rights from calling them selves a liberal
    4# kick Scotland out of the Uk, cos fuck it there just a headache at the point.
    5# build rail lines to place people actually want to go to.
    6# ban any individual or company from owning more than 2 residential property's
    7# ban ban foreigners not residing in the uk from owning residential property in the uk - ill call 6 and 7 my "fuck this crazy rental problem" law

    probably some more too. id probably legalese weed. and put a ton of cash into widening and re designing the motorway systems too cos they were really not ment for handling this many lorries and car's

  16. #8176
    Quote Originally Posted by Demolitia View Post
    It's not a nasty lie. The Eu set out the boundaries, the UK did too. It feels like for the whole time both side worked on the common grounds, which were sorted out a year ago. The only real sticking point was the irish border, and no progress has been made there.
    I'm not being cynical here. It just feels as if both sides have waiting for the other to break their principles, instead of just saying let's go EFTA, or let's end this.
    Maybe I'm phrasing it in a way that feels dishonest but the last year has been pretty much a waiting game.
    The issue is that the EU boundries are set by international law, either from WTO basically saying "You have to protect your borders in regards to trade." and GFA which basically says "No border between Northern and Republic of Ireland ever." so from EU perspective the hard border if there was to be one would have to be in the Irish sea.

    The UK could have just stopped this from happening from day 1. Day fucking one by saying "This is going to take years, let's take norway and continue talks about how the future goes." because too many in the Tories and Unionist groups are never going to accept Irish sea border. It has always been up to the UK, the one leaving to budge. The EU boundries are defined by international treaties it can't get out. If it did USA, Japan, Canada, whatever would be jumping all over it demanding new concessions.

    The UK red lines and Good Friday Agreement are incompatible and are cloud cookoo land.

  17. #8177
    At end of the day if they can't sort out a deal this is a massive failure in negotiations from both sides. The Uk and Eu should should be ashamed if they fail to make it work through compromises.

  18. #8178
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    The EU didn't decide to do this. It never for a second felt like there was common ground. From second one Northern Ireland has been a problem. But certain people chose to ignore it. So great, the UK did the 80% that were easy. Now they should do the 20% that are hard. Oh, they can't? Well thanks for putting so much effort into the easy 80%. The EU is now the mean guy, because they kept reminding the UK to find a solution for Nothern Ireland, since everything the EU is suggesting apparently is unaccpeptable. So now you go the EU is "pretending to play ball"? Really? They've told the UK this before the referendum. They've told the UK at the beginning of the negotiations. They have told the UK during the negotiations.

    How much telling does the UK need to realise that yes, there is a problem. And no, it's not the EU's job to figure out problems for the UK that are largely an internal issue to the UK and most of all, created by the UK itself.

    The EU's job is not to babysit its member states.

    I have no idea why I have to keep repeating this every page or so. All of these considerations should have been done by a sovereign nation that wants to be treated like a serious player in global politics. That the UK is now surprised at the development is... shameful. The EU has offered what I think is a shitty compromise, but probably the best that prevents a hard border on NI and doesn't quite outright break the Union of the UK. Have a backstop, implement custom controls in the Irish Sea... yes, it'll feel weird, but...

    Get this, the UK's counter proposal? Put the entire UK in the customs union for goods. Are they on drugs or something? Do they think they can somehow use the Irish situation to circumvent the EU's mantra "the single market consists of all four freedoms, not just one" with that douchebag trickery? Seriously?

    And you say the EU is "pretending to play ball". Are you mad?

    We'll see how that pans out, I don't see that "whole UK solution" getting any serious attention. Even if the EU agrees, May would never get that through the commons, even a continental fascist like I can see that without binoculars. :P

    (Because I can't assume a mature level of understanding on this forum from some people, the last bit about me being a fascist was sarcasm. Obviously.)
    id like to argue that your both wrong and the EU and UK both had no hope of solving the northern Ireland issue.

    thats why there is no solution all of the EU's proposals arnt workable and all of the UK's arnt workable because the problem is deeper than an EU vs UK issue its a problem of national identity in Ireland thats a number of century's old and needs to be solved by the Irish them selves. the EU deal pissed of the RED hand types and the UK deal pisses of the IRA types, and when one of those sides loses out it usually ends in bombs and guns. hell you know a countrys fucked when they have to have a "power sharing government" which literally dissolved its self over fucking solar panels and hasn't run the country for 638 days now https://howlonghasnorthernirelandnothadagovernment.com/

    i mean they broke the world record for the longest country without a government that kicked of over a solar panel scheme and you want there to be an agreement that docent causes shit to kick off there ?

    i mean hell there was a whole pro choice march there past an empty government. i was laughing my tits off at all these woman chanting for change at literally no one, the place is in limbo.
    Last edited by mmoc56f3565a46; 2018-10-16 at 10:29 PM.

  19. #8179
    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    You've provided four(or was it five?) names that support NHS privatisation, one is a soon to be ex-MEP and another is no longer a member of the Con party or an MP. However if so many Tories are up for privatising the NHS why have they not done so already? Why do they need to wait to write certain trade deals? And what the UK does or does not do with the NHS is absolutely nothing to with other EU members so I have no idea how you reached the conclusion that the Tories were held back by them.

    The fact of the matter is that there is little evidence that NHS privatisation is widely supported within the Tory party as a whole or if there was that they would act on it. In reality any party that tries to get rid of the NHS is a party that is making itself completely unelectable.

    What decisions have the Tories taken that puts the union in danger? They have rejected the EU's offer to move the Irish border to sea in between NI and the mainland and have so far (although this may change) stood by their assertion that NI must be treated the same as the rest of the UK despite the fact that it risks a no-deal Brexit.

    Unemployment may be higher, by all of 0.3%, but it is still almost 2% below that of the Republic and has recently seen the lowest rates in a decade.

    And? That still does not change the fact that the rest of the UK subsidies Northern Irish public services by over twelve times that amount each and every year or that the money NI's rich land owners receive from the EU essentially balances out what it pays in.

    The situation in NI is certainly volatile but whilst unionists continue to comprise the majority the prospect of NI leaving the UK is low.
    Privatisation has been steadily increasing since The [Tory] Health and Social Care Act in 2012 - it's really a matter of the scale and speed of change. Various EU nations have been interested in limiting access for US healthcare giants to national markets, which is why TTIP included exemptions for national healthcare markets. Even if a future government does want to keep up those companies out, they'll have less ability to do so when outside of a trade block.

    The Tories have been underfunding the NHS:
    https://www.parliament.uk/business/p...h/nhs-funding/
    https://fullfact.org/health/spending-english-nhs/

    And May has backed the Naylor Report's plan to sell off NHS assets to hide this funding gap, despite serious reservations in many quarters:
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politi...-huge-11941502
    https://www.opendemocracy.net/ournhs...f-gathers-pace

    1. Cameron gambled that the Scottish Nationalists would lose their referendum but it was a risk.
    2. Voices were warning before the Brexit that the GFA may be at risk if we left the EU and yet Dave still put party before country and offered the Brexit ref to appease Tory Eurosceptics and steal votes off UKIP.
    3. Rather than take the sensible approach and take time to formulate a consensus plan with a proper mandate, May triggered A50 and set in motion a legal process she couldn't stop with consequences she couldn't foresee.

    You and I disagree on NI but I do think you read my initial NI point too strongly. I think it's "plausible" but not that it's nailed on or anything like that.

  20. #8180
    Quote Originally Posted by sircaw View Post
    At end of the day if they can't sort out a deal this is a massive failure in negotiations from both sides. The UK and EU should should be ashamed if they fail to make it work through compromises.
    But this favors UK even it fails. And makes the EU look bad.



    EU is under pressure from many angles. They should make friendly negotiations with the UK but instead they are playing hardball. The longer this draws out the more it favors the UK.

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