I fear you may have misunderstood realistic expectation. I was talking about the expected outcome of forging rolls. For every single roll, the likely outcome is the garden-variety, bog standard base item. And you are also stretching and grasping. You claim doing the "easiest thing possible" will yield better results than "trying for hours to kill 7th boss in a raid". Now, that's literally true, because trying does not yield anything. If you actually kill that boss, though, the loot will be way better than what you can get from a world quest (which, I guess, is probably the easiest thing in the endgame). My experience shows harder content gets me better loot (othen than welfare epics, but again, that is a different discussion).
Also, your analogy is quite false, because we have been discussing a probability-based system and you cite education. Tests do not titanforge. Billy could get an A guessing the answers, but in that case that is an A from the beginning.