Nov 6, 2018 - Midterms *MEGA* Thread

[cubby]

Oh you mean Republicans voted in favor of keeping the cap on state and local tax deductions. Which would mean that the middle class gets the shaft.
Trump shill...

Stop paying attention! God dammit. How the holy fuck are the GOP shrills supposed to sell their bullshit if you keep bringing up facts.

My "favorite" part of GOP policies is how they name things the opposite of what they actually do. My second favorite part is how well they lie about the nature of the laws the enact.

[Dacien]

Oh you mean Republicans voted in favor of keeping the cap on state and local tax deductions. Which would mean that the middle class gets the shaft.
Trump shill...

SALT predominately affects those earning over $100,000:

About 10 percent of tax filers with income under $50,000 claimed the SALT deduction in 2014, compared with about 81 percent of tax filers with income over $100,000.

Further:

Only about 9 percent of households would benefit from repeal of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act’s (TCJA) $10,000 cap on the state and local property tax (SALT) deduction, and more than 96 percent of the tax cut would go to the highest-income 20 percent of householdsaccording to a new analysis by the Tax Policy Center.

In short, the SALT cap overwhelmingly hurts the wealthy over the middle class,

[cubby]

Current polling looks like the North Dakota Senate seat is going to keep McConnell in charge for two more years. Obviously a LOT more things to go/happen.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...idterms-header

[lockedout]

Get the brooms out boys GOP going for a clean sweep.

[Dacien]

Get the brooms out boys GOP going for a clean sweep.

I wouldn't be too sure about that. I think we keep the Senate for sure, but I'm not holding out any hope for the House.

[lockedout]

I wouldn't be too sure about that. I think we keep the Senate for sure, but I'm not holding out any hope for the House.

You gotta have https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/...ope_Poster.jpg

[Moonstream]

Yea I wouldn't hold much hope for us N. Dakotans, here in the land of the "Ford was just trying to ruin a good mans reputation." Most are just dead set on seeing Heidi get booted because of the lack of -R by her name. Ask most why they want to vote for Kramer over her (other than to fill in the circle by an R) you just get a blank stare. Plus with the Native Americans possibly not getting to vote, it will probably tip the scales to Cramer.

But we'll see, their first debate was last night and she was far more professional and knowledgeable than he was... to the point of being noticeable even to my borderline Trumpster coworker (there may still be hope for him).

Plus farmers are starting to feel the pain, maybe enough so that they may turn their attention from RUSH or FOX long enough to join the "Real World" they are always spouting off about.

[Eveningforest]

Current polling looks like the North Dakota Senate seat is going to keep McConnell in charge for two more years. Obviously a LOT more things to go/happen.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...idterms-header

Sad but expected. At least Heidi Heitkamp (unlike others) can look at herself in the mirror in the morning, knowing she did the right thing despite the consequences.

[cubby]

Sad but expected. At least Heidi Heitkamp (unlike others) can look at herself in the mirror in the morning, knowing she did the right thing despite the consequences.

Agreed. Especially after the court ruling on Native voters.

Of course, with about three weeks to go, anything can happen. I wouldn't be surprised if the Senate stays the same numbers, with some shifts. I.e. 51-49 GOP, but seats changing hands.

- - - Updated - - -

I'm fascinated with how fivethirtyeight tracks the House and Senate data. On the Senate forecast, the line that shows the 50-50 mark, and where the open seats are leaning is a very good metric.

[Video Games]

So, right on schedule, the attack ad horror show has begun.
https://mobile.twitter.com/notlarrys...23848772378625

Not that pro-GOP factions are exclusively awful with this kind of thing (see here), but we need a lot less of this.

I laughed so hard. Hopefully they at least got paid well.

[Dacien]

I laughed so hard. Hopefully they at least got paid well.

That was my reaction as well. It's so absurd it's comical.

[Nadiru]

The problem isn't entitlements in the least. It's nice you think social programs are the issue and not out of control military spending combined with massive tax cuts though.

Social programs are the issue, though. You need roughly 3% reduction from SS, Medicaid/Medicare, and the Military to make the budget work. Together they make up something like 77% of the budget, it's incomprehensible that you could look at the budget hole and be unwilling to see a budget fix that doesn't include SS and healthcare.

[Drutt]

Naturalized purely to vote in this year's elections.

I've been pretty disgusted by what I've seen over the last 4-5 years and I'm going to do the little bit I can to try and change that.

Being that I'm in Wisconsin, my vote will probably go further than it would have in some other states, looking at the closeness of the 2016 results.

[cubby]

Social programs are the issue, though. You need roughly 3% reduction from SS, Medicaid/Medicare, and the Military to make the budget work. Together they make up something like 77% of the budget, it's incomprehensible that you could look at the budget hole and be unwilling to see a budget fix that doesn't include SS and healthcare.

But they aren't. Tax cuts for the rich is the issue.

SS was fine until the GOP started borrowing from it. SS isn't an entitlement program, it's a self funding supplemental retirement program for the United States. Or it was until the GOP started paying for their tax cuts for the rich with it.

I hear you about Medicaid/Medicare - those need to be bolstered rather than cut, with universal single payer healthcare coming out of them in the near future. Military budget is another issue, and I'm not knowledgeable enough about it to comment.

All of this could be fixed if the GOP would stop killing surplus' with their Tax Cuts for the Rich.

[Xeones]

The House just voted to make the tax cuts for the middle class permanent. And almost every single Democrat opposed. Something to keep in mind this November. If tax relief and more money in your pocket are important issues for you, vote Republican.

Of course they did. The entire tax scam needs to be repealed.

If more money in my pocket is important I will never vote republicans who favor regressive taxes and hand outs for the rich. Fuck off.

[cubby]

As I said couple pages back, week of 10/22 should get that. That said, the fact we got a generic ballot of +13 D yesterday with a tied Georgia Gov race and a +6 Ohio Gov (Might be a bit of an over sample) with a more energized R base should scare the shit out of the Pubs

Yea Maryland is a shit show of weird designs. Even so probably only costs the Pubs a single seat

I'm tagging you into this thread, hope that's ok.

We were talking about post-Kav numbers coming in around 10/22 or so, but I'm seeing some Senate shifts. Towards the Dems *maybe* taking the Senate. They won't, but the shift is interesting.

This is fivethirtyeight material - aggregate polls, etc. But just watching his own data shift even more blue over the past few days has been interesting.

- - - Updated - - -

IIRC the Dems holding the same number of Senate seats would be a minor win overall.

[Deleted]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Ojeda





You don't usually get attack ads like this from the Democrats I guess;

[Moralgy]

Ojeda seems like a guy that actually gives a shit about the country cause he isn't some fat cat that just wants a cushy job.

[Cthulhu 2020]

The House just voted to make the tax cuts for the middle class permanent. And almost every single Democrat opposed. Something to keep in mind this November. If tax relief and more money in your pocket are important issues for you, vote Republican.

So the upper class and the rich get 20-40% tax cuts, while the middle class enjoys 1-2% tax cuts. Hooray. Everyone vote Republican for 50-100 extra dollars in your pocket each year, while they wreck the national budget and the rest of the country.

[Adam Jensen]

Ojeda seems like a guy that actually gives a shit about the country cause he isn't some fat cat that just wants a cushy job.

That's the impression I got from our Maine candidate, Jared Golden, who's running for the House. He too was a combat vet who gives a shit about the country. Whereas his opponent only cares for his backers.