Nov 6, 2018 - Midterms *MEGA* Thread

[Cthulhu 2020]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Ojeda



You don't usually get attack ads like this from the Democrats I guess;

Seems the tides might shift. Republicans have been squeaking, screaching, and squealing at these "people of the earth" for a long time, promising the world and giving them nothing. Seems it's about time for them to wake up and realize Republicans aren't for them. For all the people who screamed "DEMOCRATS DON'T CARE ABOUT THE COMMON MAN", welcome to the Democratic party.

[Seiklis]

I'm tagging you into this thread, hope that's ok.

We were talking about post-Kav numbers coming in around 10/22 or so, but I'm seeing some Senate shifts. Towards the Dems *maybe* taking the Senate. They won't, but the shift is interesting.

This is fivethirtyeight material - aggregate polls, etc. But just watching his own data shift even more blue over the past few days has been interesting.

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IIRC the Dems holding the same number of Senate seats would be a minor win overall.

Yay my numbers got noticed.

But yes as I said back immediately after Kav. If you win 1000 dollars in the lottery, you'll be ecstatic the next day even the next week or two but keeping that excitement up for an entire month? That's not an easy thing to do. Honestly I think this caravan of Honduran asylum seekers will have more to do with polls in the coming weeks than any enthusiasm Kav may have given. Though the fact Trump seemingly has no idea how to handle the Saudi murder is keeping the issue more regional than it otherwise might have been. (And the awfulness of the Saudi justification story given today isn't going to help that)

Georgia though has gone full shit show. Kemp is using just about every trick in the book to disenfranchise Democratic Voters. Problem he's having is he's being too blunt about it, might end up increasing turn out with a whole bunch of angry voters. Same thing with ND. The Republicans seemingly thought the Native American issue was done and over with only to find that they're registering en masse with the street address they need to be legit voters. GOP is lucky as hell Heitkamp blew this victim's thing otherwise it might have closed the west ND margins enough for her to win.


In other news....current governor of Alaska Bill Walker (I) just threw in the towel and endorsed his Dem challenger making a definite R flip back to being a tossup

[cubby]

Yay my numbers got noticed.

But yes as I said back immediately after Kav. If you win 1000 dollars in the lottery, you'll be ecstatic the next day even the next week or two but keeping that excitement up for an entire month? That's not an easy thing to do. Honestly I think this caravan of Honduran asylum seekers will have more to do with polls in the coming weeks than any enthusiasm Kav may have given. Though the fact Trump seemingly has no idea how to handle the Saudi murder is keeping the issue more regional than it otherwise might have been. (And the awfulness of the Saudi justification story given today isn't going to help that)

Agreed. And Trump is still doing his deplorable dance every single day, causing more and more uproar and anger, bringing out more blue voters. Fivethirtyeight is showing continued shift towards an increase in House Dems - the over/under is now a 39 seat shift. I'm well aware those numbers are just that, numbers. But the shift in the same numbers is what I'm getting excited about.

Georgia though has gone full shit show. Kemp is using just about every trick in the book to disenfranchise Democratic Voters. Problem he's having is he's being too blunt about it, might end up increasing turn out with a whole bunch of angry voters. Same thing with ND. The Republicans seemingly thought the Native American issue was done and over with only to find that they're registering en masse with the street address they need to be legit voters. GOP is lucky as hell Heitkamp blew this victim's thing otherwise it might have closed the west ND margins enough for her to win.

It's looking more and more like this ND seat will be the one that keeps the Dems from taking the Senate. Polls are showing a 50-50 final in the Senate - anything can change of course. But again, and not to repeat myself too much, it's the shift I'm excited about. Last week the Dem chances of taking the Senate were around 17%. They are now pushing 21%. It won't happen of course, but again the shift. And if we actually gain a seat in what is almost literally the worst reelection calendar for Senate Dems possible, it would be amazing.

The DNC needs to put $20M into ND right now.

Re Georgia - just un-fucking-believable that anyone is ok with the current SecState ruling on voter registration, while running for Governor. The party of power-above-all-else just proves their deplorableness once again.


In other news....current governor of Alaska Bill Walker (I) just threw in the towel and endorsed his Dem challenger making a definite R flip back to being a tossup[/QUOTE]

[Vynestra]

This debate is amusing.

Gillium is clearly doing a better job.

The "BUT DID YOU PAY FOR HAMILTON" is not a good look on desantis (or anyone, probably)

Also ND is probably a lost cause, better to throw money at say Missouri where McCaskill is still favored according to 538s forecast.

Or NV, or AZ.

If we get FL, NV, AZ and MO we pick up a seat, if we keep the other states we lead in, which is A LOT to ask for. I think losing ND is fine if it means we set ourselves up to fight for the senate majority in 2020 when the map isn't as bad.

[Seiklis]

This debate is amusing.

Gillium is clearly doing a better job.

The "BUT DID YOU PAY FOR HAMILTON" is not a good look on desantis (or anyone, probably)

Also ND is probably a lost cause, better to throw money at say Missouri where McCaskill is still favored according to 538s forecast.

Or NV, or AZ.

If we get FL, NV, AZ and MO we pick up a seat, if we keep the other states we lead in, which is A LOT to ask for. I think losing ND is fine if it means we set ourselves up to fight for the senate majority in 2020 when the map isn't as bad.

Early returns are iffy for Dems in Indiana (probably, Red counties early voting is high but so is Indianapolis so it might cancel out) but are extremely good in Nevada.

[cubby]

This debate is amusing.

Gillium is clearly doing a better job.

The "BUT DID YOU PAY FOR HAMILTON" is not a good look on desantis (or anyone, probably)

Also ND is probably a lost cause, better to throw money at say Missouri where McCaskill is still favored according to 538s forecast.

Or NV, or AZ.

If we get FL, NV, AZ and MO we pick up a seat, if we keep the other states we lead in, which is A LOT to ask for. I think losing ND is fine if it means we set ourselves up to fight for the senate majority in 2020 when the map isn't as bad.

This debate is discussing our future.

ND might be a lost cause, but there are a LOT of pissed off disenfranchised voters out there who are motivated to vote. So we'll see how it plays out. Other areas where Dems are leading might also be lost causes, if we learned anything from 2016 it's that polls are only mathematical estimates - nothing is sure until the votes are counted.

It really doesn't matter if we don't take the Senate, 50-50 or 49-51. If the Blue Wave is real, and all indications are that it is a legit phenomenon, then we'll almost certainly take the Senate in 2020 - so discussion it as though we need to set up for it isn't really useful.

However, you point about making about holding fast and possibly even gaining a seat would be fantastic.

[Varvara Spiros Gelashvili]

This ad was better.

[Dontrike]

The House just voted to make the tax cuts for the middle class permanent. And almost every single Democrat opposed. Something to keep in mind this November. If tax relief and more money in your pocket are important issues for you, vote Republican.

So just because tax cuts for most Americans are permanent suddenly the tax cuts became a good thing? Republicans care about as much about middle America as I do about myself (here's a hint, it's next to zero). The tax cuts have proven to be terrible decision from the start.

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Leftists deserve to loose, do i like it, no. But democrats today dont deserve to win they are elitist assholes and most people know that and vote blue.

This is funny considering we have an elitist asshole as president right now.

[Dougie Cooper]

Just a humble Texan dropping by to wave my "Vote for Beto" flag.

[Dacien]

"Although Democrats are preferred in the national poll overall, their advantage has vanished in the House districts that matter most."

The whole article is worth a read. Surprise win for the GOP in the House? That would be disastrous for national discourse and unity as a whole, because failing to take either the House or the Senate would send many Democrats into a post-2016 election mode 2.0, a miniature version. The despondency would be palpable. And while I commiserate, we can't defer to a sort of heckler's veto in the voting booth, where if they don't win they'll confront lawmakers in restaraunts and storm the capitol and threaten violence.

But I think that's all they know. They don't know any other way. They don't think, "Well, we lost this one. The American people disagree with our message." Instead they think, in a panic, "We have to do something!"

[Fugus]

"Although Democrats are preferred in the national poll overall, their advantage has vanished in the House districts that matter most."

The whole article is worth a read. Surprise win for the GOP in the House? That would be disastrous for national discourse and unity as a whole, because failing to take either the House or the Senate would send many Democrats into a post-2016 election mode 2.0, a miniature version. The despondency would be palpable. And while I commiserate, we can't defer to a sort of heckler's veto in the voting booth, where if they don't win they'll confront lawmakers in restaraunts and storm the capitol and threaten violence.

But I think that's all they know. They don't know any other way. They don't think, "Well, we lost this one. The American people disagree with our message." Instead they think, in a panic, "We have to do something!"

Actually, by the data, the American people disagree with Trump and the conservatives. The conservatives are actively trying to cheat and disenfranchise at every chance to hold onto that victory.

Really disingenuous on your part.

A Republican win in the house would be disastrous for this nation as a whole at this point as they are actively harming us domestically and internationally acting like they are doing a final smash and grab before they are out and burning as much down as they can on the way out.

Watching this makes me glad I don't have children because I am watching them sell this nation and its children out and smiling as they are doing it.

Edit: The Democrats need to retake the house and start investigating all the stuff the Republicans have been blocking being looked into.

[cubby]

Just a humble Texan dropping by to wave my "Vote for Beto" flag.

How is he looking down there?

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"Although Democrats are preferred in the national poll overall, their advantage has vanished in the House districts that matter most."

The whole article is worth a read. Surprise win for the GOP in the House? That would be disastrous for national discourse and unity as a whole, because failing to take either the House or the Senate would send many Democrats into a post-2016 election mode 2.0, a miniature version. The despondency would be palpable. And while I commiserate, we can't defer to a sort of heckler's veto in the voting booth, where if they don't win they'll confront lawmakers in restaraunts and storm the capitol and threaten violence.

The "pro-trump" surge people are talking about seems to be all hype with no teeth. I saw this same kind of story on Faux News a few days ago. ALL the polls say that this is nonsense - not sure where the WSJ is getting their information, but aggregate polling is showing more of a Blue Wave surge, and it continues to shift towards blue.

However, if the Dems don't take the House, that will be . . . interesting.

But I think that's all they know. They don't know any other way. They don't think, "Well, we lost this one. The American people disagree with our message." Instead they think, in a panic, "We have to do something!"

Keep in mind, the American people have never agreed with Trump's message - ever. He's been in sub-50% polling since the day he took office, and he took office with 3 million less votes than his competitor. That kind of message speaks to a broken system. Which we currently have.

[Dougie Cooper]

How is he looking down there?

It's way tighter of a race than I ever expected, frankly. I get frequent updates from the Beto team to my email, and a lot of them are saying within only a few points to "too close to call." Once I'm on my break (at work atm) I should be able to give a more concrete update.

[mybackhurts]

How is he looking down there?

In the Austin area I've seen exactly 0 Cruz signs, meanwhile Beto signs are everywhere. Several friends of mine who have never voted before have registered to vote against that snake Cruz.

[Felya]

Dropping my ballot in the mail today... yes on soda and fuel tax... democrats down the ticket... Bob Dole for uncontested seats.

Washington...

[Dougie Cooper]

In the Austin area I've seen exactly 0 Cruz signs, meanwhile Beto signs are everywhere. Several friends of mine who have never voted before have registered to vote against that snake Cruz.

This is also true. I live in more conservative Williamson County, about 20 minutes away from the city proper, but even there I see more Beto signs and stickers than Cruz.

Dropping my ballot in the mail today... yes on soda and fuel tax... democrats down the ticket... Bob Dole for uncontested seats.

Washington...

[cubby]

It's way tighter of a race than I ever expected, frankly. I get frequent updates from the Beto team to my email, and a lot of them are saying within only a few points to "too close to call." Once I'm on my break (at work atm) I should be able to give a more concrete update.

I'm glad to hear it - fivethirtyeight has Beto down by 5 points. I would really like to see him win.

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In the Austin area I've seen exactly 0 Cruz signs, meanwhile Beto signs are everywhere. Several friends of mine who have never voted before have registered to vote against that snake Cruz.

I wonder how much affect the new wave of voters have on the inaccuracies of polls. I know that polling companies use new techniques to get at the younger crowd, but I wonder how inaccurate those number are.

[Dougie Cooper]

I'm glad to hear it - fivethirtyeight has Beto down by 5 points. I would really like to see him win.

Truthfully, I'm not getting my hopes up. My partner and I are getting our votes in asap, and we're absolutely encouraging those around us to vote, but I'm feeling like it'll be nothing short of a miracle if Beto actually wins.

[cubby]

Truthfully, I'm not getting my hopes up. My partner and I are getting our votes in asap, and we're absolutely encouraging those around us to vote, but I'm feeling like it'll be nothing short of a miracle if Beto actually wins.

Same here. But if he does win - whoa.

[Smitzelplix]

"Although Democrats are preferred in the national poll overall, their advantage has vanished in the House districts that matter most."

The whole article is worth a read. Surprise win for the GOP in the House? That would be disastrous for national discourse and unity as a whole, because failing to take either the House or the Senate would send many Democrats into a post-2016 election mode 2.0, a miniature version. The despondency would be palpable. And while I commiserate, we can't defer to a sort of heckler's veto in the voting booth, where if they don't win they'll confront lawmakers in restaraunts and storm the capitol and threaten violence.

But I think that's all they know. They don't know any other way. They don't think, "Well, we lost this one. The American people disagree with our message." Instead they think, in a panic, "We have to do something!"

Can't read the article because it's behind a paywall, even Google Chrome's incognito mode isn't letting me bypass it like it used to.