Mega-Thread: Mueller investigation

[Skroe]

I have a Machiavellian idea.

The Department of Homeland Security needs a budget to pass before the end of the year. Most contentious is wall money.

Trump wants wall money? Give him wall money. Give him $50 million to dig some ditches. He wants to dig some holes? Go dig some holes.

And attach a rider that protects Robert Mueller.

Lets see if Trump vetos it.

[Shalcker]

So far, Congress seemed happy enough to be Republican. But, gosh, kind of a lot's changed. And Contempt of Congress is a real crime.

So i went to check last time it was actually used, and, oh my:

On June 28, 2012, Holder became the first U.S. Attorney General in history to be held in both criminal[131] and civil[132] contempt. He was held, by a bipartisan vote,[133] in contempt by the House of Representatives in a 255–67 vote, with 17 Democrats voting for the measure, 2 Republicans voting against the measure.[133] The remaining Democrats refused to vote and marched out of the House, led by Nancy Pelosi, as a means of protesting the actions of Republicans. Holder responded to the vote, describing it as "the regrettable culmination of what became a misguided and politically motivated investigation in an election year."[134]
...
President Obama and the Justice Department declined to prosecute the attorney general on the contempt charge citing executive privilege.[138]

In September 2012, after a nineteen-month review, the United States Department of Justice Office of the Inspector General cleared the Attorney General of any wrongdoing with regard to Fast and Furious, stating that there was "no evidence" that Holder knew about the operation before early 2011. The report did cite fourteen lower ranking officials for possible disciplinary action.[139] Holder responded to the internal investigation, saying "It is unfortunate that some were so quick to make baseless accusations before they possessed the facts about these operations – accusations that turned out to be without foundation and that have caused a great deal of unnecessary harm and confusion."[140]

In retrospective, David Weigel of Bloomberg Businessweek called the contempt of Congress vote "both popular and stunningly ineffective, enraging Holder and turning him into a more outspoken and implacable foe of Republican policies on voting rights and policing."[141] In August 2014, federal judge Amy Berman Jackson ordered the Justice Department to provide Congress with some of the previously withheld documents that had led Congress to hold Holder in contempt.[142]

Right, that is going to be so scary when Trump can just refuse to prosecute him... /s

[cubby]

I have a Machiavellian idea.

The Department of Homeland Security needs a budget to pass before the end of the year. Most contentious is wall money.

Trump wants wall money? Give him wall money. Give him $50 million to dig some ditches. He wants to dig some holes? Go dig some holes.

And attach a rider that protects Robert Mueller.

Lets see if Trump vetos it.

You seriously need to resign whatever "useful" engineering/software job you currently have and join Pelosi's strategy team.

[Breccia]

Does Senate have any power over it in this matter?

Yes, but they won't use it. The GOP controls the Senate and have chosen to be 100% Trump.

[DarkTZeratul]

You seriously need to resign whatever "useful" engineering/software job you currently have and join Pelosi's strategy team.

He can do two things, surely.

Also, someone somewhere mentioned a blog in case he gets banned again, and I'm all for that...

[cubby]

He can do two things, surely.

Also, someone somewhere mentioned a blog in case he gets banned again, and I'm all for that...

I would be interested in a blog like that as well.

[Skroe]

@Dacien
We're Taking Your President Away From You.

This is what it's like to be hunted. Trump will be going to prison one day.

You get to watch.

[Breccia]

(Shows Trump is getting Horsefucked)

Well. For someone who claims financial disclosure forms are better than tax returns -- they aren't, Trump is lying and he knows it -- but for someone who claims they do, lying on them sure says something about Trump, doesn't it?

[Skroe]

Well. For someone who claims financial disclosure forms are better than tax returns -- they aren't, Trump is lying and he knows it -- but for someone who claims they do, lying on them sure says something about Trump, doesn't it?

Trump's a criminal. He's been a criminal for 30 years. His friends know it. His lawyers know it. His staff knows it. His supporters know it (and don't care).

I don't think he's yet grasped how the Democratic Majority is going to destroy his life.

The year ahead shall be a work of art.

[kaelleria]

Trump's a criminal. He's been a criminal for 30 years. His friends know it. His lawyers know it. His staff knows it. His supporters know it (and don't care).

I don't think he's yet grasped how the Democratic Majority is going to destroy his life.

The year ahead shall be a work of art.

He's going to go ballistic as soon as his tax returns get released.

[Breccia]

The year ahead shall be a work of art.

No, that would imply he's been framed. This is more like poetry, because the American people can't stanza much longer.

I'll see myself out.

[Skroe]

No, that would imply he's been framed. This is more like poetry, because the American people can't stanza much longer.

I'll see myself out.

I want a new special counsel investigation.

[Breccia]

He's going to go ballistic as soon as his tax returns get released.

Remember, whatever he's hiding is worse than what people suspect. The money he owes to Russia, either through known admitted money launderer Deutche Bank or directly through shady real estate, would sound bad enough. But we already know about that. And he's still hiding them.

Ballistic is right: his tax returns might actually get him fired. He already lied on his fiscal disclosure forms, and I'm fairly sure the Cohen thing has given Mueller -- or anyone who is involved -- enough evidence to prove that. Plus, it was before he was elected, so, good luck claiming immunity from that.

[cubby]

Remember, whatever he's hiding is worse than what people suspect. The money he owes to Russia, either through known admitted money launderer Deutche Bank or directly through shady real estate, would sound bad enough. But we already know about that. And he's still hiding them.

Ballistic is right: his tax returns might actually get him fired. He already lied on his fiscal disclosure forms, and I'm fairly sure the Cohen thing has given Mueller -- or anyone who is involved -- enough evidence to prove that. Plus, it was before he was elected, so, good luck claiming immunity from that.

You and @Skroe mentioned awhile ago that when Articles are drawn up, if the GOP controlled Senate gets behind them, they will get behind it in a big way - basically that the vote to convict would be a ground-swelling number - like 80 or more.

The tax returns might just be the catalyst to that event. If they are as bad as we seem to be seeing from his actions in trying to hide them, and we can get them out and in the public, and it shows horrific behavior and financial compromises way beyond what we already know to be (and for the record I agree it has to be something like that), the GOP (and more specifically McConnell) might see that as their ticket out. And they would still have Pence to nominate conservative justices, so he wouldn't even be losing that much.

I bring this up because the smart people left in the GOP know what the Blue Tsunami meant. And if the Dems continue to recruit and push great new candidates, and Trump continues to be the worst person to ever walk through the doors of the White House, much less sit at the Resolute Desk, McConnell might see it as the opportunity to cut his losses. Get Trump out. Pence in. And start grooming someone for 2020.

[Breccia]

The tax returns might just be the catalyst to that event.

It depends what's in them, of course, but yes. The GOP is many things, including Trump's willing cock holster, but they are not fans of Russia. If there is proof that Trump was knowingly on Putin's payroll, they'll have to cut their losses. As you pointed out, they'll still salvage a few things from the Pence admin, such as making being gay illegal.

- - - Updated - - -

This just in: Mueller is apparently tiring of Manafort stalling and refusing to cooperate. Specifically, about our good friend Roger Stone, admitted go-between between Trump and WikiLeaks, a thief working for Putin.

If Manafort breaks his plea deal and refuses to cooperate, the sentence he gets will be far harsher. @cubby will back me up on this.

[cubby]

It depends what's in them, of course, but yes. The GOP is many things, including Trump's willing cock holster, but they are not fans of Russia. If there is proof that Trump was knowingly on Putin's payroll, they'll have to cut their losses. As you pointed out, they'll still salvage a few things from the Pence admin, such as making being gay illegal.

- - - Updated - - -

This just in: Mueller is apparently tiring of Manafort stalling and refusing to cooperate. Specifically, about our good friend Roger Stone, admitted go-between between Trump and WikiLeaks, a thief working for Putin.

If Manafort breaks his plea deal and refuses to cooperate, the sentence he gets will be far harsher. @cubby will back me up on this.

Entirely. Not only that, he already admitted guilt - that ship sailed. Not to mention that he was found guilty in a court of law. Another ship sailed. The only way Manafort avoids spending most of the rest of his life in jail is with Mueller's sentencing recommendation. Which is based entirely on how much and well Manafort cooperates - as laid down in the plea deal.

Manafort going to jail, and for how long, depends now entirely on how Mueller feels about Manafort's cooperation.

[Shadowferal]

MF is probably hoping Trump will come in and save his ass...

[Breccia]

MF is probably hoping Trump will come in and save his ass...

Again, a pardon might not be the help he thinks.

For one, I don't think he gets his money back.

For two, as we've all pointed out, once he's no longer subject to prosecution he can't take the Fifth. He is, however, subject to perjury for things he says after being pardoned. It's not the silver bullet Trump hopes it is.

For three, part of the plea deal was multiple charges weren't filed. Mueller has no need to adhere to a broken plea deal, and still has all the evidence. Manafort would immediately be brought back up on the other charges.

"But Trump could pardon those, too."

At some point, even the GOP will tire of that.

[StarDog]

He's going to go ballistic as soon as his tax returns get released.

So, I am an accountant. My first job out of college was a staff level for a Tax Accounting firm and I did that for 4 years. Obviously I don't have like "Partner" level expertise, but I know some shit.

Firstly, to get something out of the way: I don't even want to think about preparing Donald Trump's tax returns. The word "complicated" doesn't even begin to describe the unbelievable shitstorm those poor staffers who work on it have to deal with. I guarantee you that there is at least one recent college graduate or low level staff accountant at that firm whose ENTIRE job--literally all they ever do--is work on some portion of Trump's taxes. Hell, they might have an entire team devoted to it.

Anyway. I have been giving some thought into what could possibly be in his returns that he so desperately doesn't want people to see. Honestly, I have a strong suspicion that there's likely to be some pretty blatant-ass fraud in there. Like prosecutable level fraud. The IRS probably knows it. They might even have prepared some files on it. But they'd never bring a case on their own. Picking a fight with Donald Trump is just... not something the IRS would ever want to do. They took that Pandora's box and locked in a closet with a big fucking sign that said "NOPE."

Generally speaking, tax fraud works as a kind of step ladder that can generally be summed as "how far do we want to push it?":

Level 1: "This is what everyone does."
Level 2: "This is what most people do, and it's rarely a big deal."
Level 3: "This is what some people do, but the guidelines are a little fuzzy."
Level 4: "This is what a few people, but the IRS might send you send you an angry letter telling you 'Nice try. Do it again.'"
Level 5: "Very few people do this. The IRS has brought a few people to trial over it."
Level 6: "People have to gone to jail for this."

Your typical tax firm normally stays at or around level 2 and 3. Occasionally they'll squeak up to level 4 if they think they can make a good argument. Respectable firms tend not to like going above level 5 and only morons hang out at level 6. The reason for that is that if a bunch of your clients regularly get chucked in prison for tax fraud, your Partners are gonna get their asses dragged to an AICPA hearing who will them of their CPA license which means THEY CAN'T DO THEIR JOBS ANYMORE (and oh, they might also go to prison themselves).

So. To Trump. Trump gets his taxes done at a Manhattan firm called "WeizerMazars."

Right of the bat this is really fucking suspicious. Not because they have a horrible reputation or anything (I honestly haven't looked to deeply into them), but because they are the 24th largest firm in the country.

24th.

For those not in the know: in the accounting world, if you are a rich-ass mother fucker, you get your books done by one these places.

1. Deloitte & Touche
2. PriceWaterHouseCoopers (PwC)
3. Ernst & Young (EY)
4. Klynveld Peat Marwick Goerdeler (KPMG)

These are "The Big 4". The 4 biggest accounting firms in the world. These are the fucking Alpha Dogs. They absolutely dominate the financial world. If you're an S&P 500 company, you get your annual SEC audit done by one of these places. If your company measures its revenues in the tens of billions, you get your taxes done at one of these places. If you go shopping for mega-yachts, your personal accountant is a Partner at one of those firms. (As a perfect example, Mitt Romney gets his personal tax return done by Deloitte).

Meanwhile, Donald Trump, who constantly brags about how wealthy and powerful he is, has his taxes done by the 24th biggest firm in the country. Not even "the world." The country. Oh, and the size of these firms do not scale linearly. KPMG is the 4th biggest firm in the world. Its annual revenues are about $25 billion. #5 Grant Thornton records annual revenues of $8 billion. #4 is 3 times bigger than #5. As you go down the list the numbers start dropping REALLY fast. So don't be fooled by "well, 24th in the country still sounds impressive." It isn't.

Donald Trump is a billionaire. According to him, he's the bigliest billionaire that ever billion'd. And billionaires do their taxes with EY or PwC. For the billionaire class, getting your taxes done by the 24th largest firm in the country is basically saying "I file my return with H&R Block."

Partners at real accounting firms with real reputations to look out for did not want to get within a mile of Donald Trump's finances without a hazmat suit. So when he went shopping around for accountants, there is no way he didn't give a Deloitte Partner a call. And they looked at his finances and told him to take a fuckin' hike. And so did the ones at EY. And KPMG. And Grant Thornton. And BKD (#12). And on and on down the list until he got to #24.

He had to go all the way down the list to #24 to find a firm sketchy enough willing to roll with dice for Donald Trump.

[Fugus]

Been busy so not been able to check for much but noticed some suggesting that Trumps tax returns might show worse than we already know and that is why he is fighting them being released so hard.

While that may be possible, it honestly could be exactly what we know too. So long as he hasn't had it officially confirmed, he has that level of deniability combined with the Republicans protecting him because of it, when it has been 100% definitively proven where they can't even make half-assed excuses, much of that falls.

Also, I have had family who are major liars and even when you catch them dead to rights, they will lie and refuse to admit it. Like literally been caught trying to steal for someone, wallet still in hand, and they will deny it to your face and just keep doubling down to absurdity rather than admit it. They act as though, as long as they don't admit it, it isn't true and they are trying to avoid accepting the full brunt of those consequences.

Either way, can't wait to see the full truth from this lying freeloading conman and probable traitor to this nation.