Macron.. Europe should build Army to protect itself from Russia, China & the USA ??

[Mayhem]

Think of it from even their perspective.

I can't get myself to be stupid enough.

[Muzjhath]

As crazy as that sounds, it is really an apt assessment of the mood across Europe. I can't stress enough how mainstream this type of "be wary of the US" thinking has become. And I remember a time when the US literally could do no wrong, when people glorified basically everything American. Perhaps this is a healthier direction for us. Simply deny the US and everyone that wants to play with them their playground in Europe. We don't need to be the battlefield for anyone anymore. And we need to protect Africa from the same fate. Mostly, because we couldn't cope with the aftermath, but also because that's the right thing to do. Africa doesn't need to suffer the same constant anxiousness that we had to endure during the cold war.

Well, if nothing else it's true because a retreat by the US would destabilize the world and passively create more conflicts. Even if with the poster you quoted in mind. He thinks that the US is the threat.

[Low Hanging Fruit]

I would LOVE for Europe to build its own fucking Army so we don't have to have an entire theater of war covered by a bunch of nations of which only about 3-4 of them do anything about there own defense.

[s_bushido]

Europes to stupid to have a unified army. One thing the US gets right is it takes people from all backgrounds and gets them under 1 roof to fight. Europe is a continent full of people with long histories of war against each other. They are not going to be a cohesive fighting force because they never were, If anything they are going to let germany call the shots and when WWIII starts we will know why.

Jesus...

Well, I guess it makes sense. In this thread we had someone else cheerleading for generations-old accomplishments of one country, so why not imply that the generations-old atrocities of another are somehow intrinsic to their culture.

[Skroe]

Well, if nothing else it's true because a retreat by the US would destabilize the world and passively create more conflicts. Even if with the poster you quoted in mind. He thinks that the US is the threat.

The US is not retreating from the world.

It's dropping unprecedented sums of money into expanding its global reach.

It's a bunch of overplayed malarkey from the jilted Davos crowd that the US is retrenching. Countries retrenching don't drop $80 billion on a new generation of stealth bombers, or accelerate ship production and grow the overall fleet size.

I'll say it again. America in 2015, post-Crimea, said the right words, but actions were mostly promises. America in late 2018 is quintupling down on actions, while the words of our idiot in chief who just badly lost an election, are wrong.

Wait a few years. The world will have an America whose words and actions are both a return to defending the liberal international order.

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As crazy as that sounds, it is really an apt assessment of the mood across Europe. I can't stress enough how mainstream this type of "be wary of the US" thinking has become. And I remember a time when the US literally could do no wrong, when people glorified basically everything American. Perhaps this is a healthier direction for us. Simply deny the US and everyone that wants to play with them their playground in Europe. We don't need to be the battlefield for anyone anymore. And we need to protect Africa from the same fate. Mostly, because we couldn't cope with the aftermath, but also because that's the right thing to do. Africa doesn't need to suffer the same constant anxiousness that we had to endure during the cold war.

That stuff isn't anything new, and it's always transient. At various points in the Cold War, such as with the Pershing 2 incident, or the height of Gaulism, the US wasn't the most popular kid in the block. And of course, there is the Iraq War.

The biggest problem going forward between the US and Europe in terms of its relationship is that the US is rapidly adjusting its posture for the new era of Great Power competition, and Europe says the right thing but actions have been limited (though there are some promising trends).

Basically, ten years from now, if European countries choose building more missiles over expanding the welfare state, they'll have adjusted to the new reality that we're all going to spend the rest of our lives in.

[Muzjhath]

The US is not retreating from the world.

It's dropping unprecedented sums of money into expanding its global reach.

It's a bunch of overplayed malarkey from the jilted Davos crowd that the US is retrenching. Countries retrenching don't drop $80 billion on a new generation of stealth bombers, or accelerate ship production and grow the overall fleet size.

I'll say it again. America in 2015, post-Crimea, said the right words, but actions were mostly promises. America in late 2018 is quintupling down on actions, while the words of our idiot in chief who just badly lost an election, are wrong.

Wait a few years. The world will have an America whose words and actions are both a return to defending the liberal international order.

I am aware. Just putting a US retreat into perspective as to "why" from a... reasonable point of view such a retreat would be bad as things currently stand. Even if I am personally wary of where the US will go with the breakdown of political civility. If a constitutional change can happen to put the rules now flaunted into place and as actual rules and not guidelines I see hope. Otherwise I personally see autocracy. The fact that a 55% voter turnout is considered "good" in the US is you know, not a thing that speaks volumes about the population actually throwing an autocracy off themselves if it fixes the mess.

However, this is off topic. Kangodo is a US hater who thinks the US is what stands between him and a communist utopia. Which I mostly just pointed out to Slant, with what he responded too.
Personally I want a consolidated EU army for reasons you've often talked about. On this however, it is true that the US is the "biggest threat" to peace. Just in the exact opposite way Kangodo means.

[Slant]

That stuff isn't anything new, and it's always transient. At various points in the Cold War, such as with the Pershing 2 incident, or the height of Gaulism, the US wasn't the most popular kid in the block. And of course, there is the Iraq War.

The biggest problem going forward between the US and Europe in terms of its relationship is that the US is rapidly adjusting its posture for the new era of Great Power competition, and Europe says the right thing but actions have been limited (though there are some promising trends).

Basically, ten years from now, if European countries choose building more missiles over expanding the welfare state, they'll have adjusted to the new reality that we're all going to spend the rest of our lives in.

The US is largely responsible for the instability in recent years. That you've created these problems and then muster up your defences in "response" to a situation that the US created itself is worrisome and speaks volumes about misunderstanding the problem. China isn't a military opponent, they're an economical one. A misjudgement on your part that I will keep repeating for a while longer, because I'm not convinced your assessment is correct regarding China.

As for Russia, they are a regional power, don't give them more credit than they're due. Arming up against them is not as important as you think it to be. Your direction is too militant and doesn't solve problems, it creates another cold war trench warfare situation where nothing gets resolved. Let's be honest here, the US spending on military is way, way out of proportion. And it's killing your budget. Money you could use to mend your country instead. That you even have to discuss universal healthcare speaks about how far behind the US actually is in terms of evolution. You have wide spread poverty. Oh, not the fancy "I can only afford caviar once a week" poverty we have in Europe, I mean the actual starving and crime inducing poverty that is ravaging through your nation. You have build yourselves nice illusions in those suburbs, but Trump is a symptom of an illness that goes beyond anything that you could spend with military spending.

We've noticed a trend in the US, when they fuck up domestically, they tend to gloss over it with international agendas. You're doing just the same. Fix your own country first, then talk about grand global cold wars.

That reality you are about to live in? Not Europes reality. I dare say we'll divert and just "get along" with other people.

[Skroe]

@Skroe: I hate to cut the quote and narrow this down to bullet points, but we're once more exceeding the limit of what is reasonable in a forum. So, I won't be able to comment on every point you made, but I'll comment on those that tickled me the most in the hopes that, unlike Trumpkins, you're able to remember what you wrote a day ago...

The US isn't an empire, you're right about that. But the talk about Empires isn't strictly speaking about Empires. It's about nations of any sort that peak and then go into decline. Not many nations come back from that, and certainly not any Empire that projected force outside its natural borders. A system of alliances may work and is probably the best shot at controlling such a vast system, but as you can see now, US projection is being rejected in Europe. Oh, we're nice about it, but at least now everyone, including the US, knows there's a limit... even in pacified Europe. This is a weakness. Trump has exposed that, it wasn't necessary but it's there. Up until now, our brotherhood was impenetrable. Russia now knows it is actually possible, albeit hard, to drive a wedge between us. That was a mistake and for that alone Trump should be impeached, does it not go strictly against US interests?

Except it's really nots. You say it is being rejected, and yet military-to-military and country-to-country coordination is at levels it hasn't been at since the Cold War, and is set to expand further. The US in 2013 was looking at a pull out from Europe, and now in 2018, it's looking at breaking up it's vulnerable post-Cold War "super bases" and building hundreds of distributed smaller bases (more survivable).

Talk is cheap. Obama talked a lot. He acted little. Congress forced the action, which is paying dividends now. Similar to Macron here. Talk is cheap. In actuality, his own armed forces are seeking more cooperation with the US.

The US system of international alliances, which is far more durable than any empire, isn't going anywhere. With the focus on China in years ahead, more likely it will be expanding. Remember: the US has been building a secret weapon against China for years. It'll be decades more before it's ready. But when it is... it'll change everything in Eurasia. That weapon? India.

The US still does Grand Strategy.

Interesting that you know about the peace of Westphalia and its significance. I think while the core has been an important evolutional step for nations and shouldn't be neglected, we're a bit beyond talking about that collection of contracts and see the apex of European integration, the EU treaties. That's the new shiny thing outperforming what was essentially a peace treaty to a German civil war by a metric ton. Just throwing it out there, because people still do not grasp the historic chance Europe has right now.

I mean, Westphalia is one of the most important geopolitical events of the past 1000 years. To the world it is far more than just a peace treaty for a German civil war. That's rather provincial. It's the foundation of everything that's come since.

The EU treaties may be the seed of what comes next. It may not. But something will come next. The US will likely play the defining role in shaping that. It's in the Western interest to make sure China does not.

Be mindful of complacency. Yes, even you... one of the more attentive Americans are prone to it. Your position is not granted without working for it. If you do not earn your spot at the top, it will be taken from you. And right now, let's be honest, you're not developing into the right direction. Trump isn't the problem here, it's the literal Idiocracy you're building. Your political system is outdated and it is a problem for you. Your country is divided and it keeps on widening the rift. I see no political will to mend the rift and heal the country. You need to start turning the ship around, because we won't help you if you guys decide to duke it out once more. Trumpkins are openly flirting with the idea... don't scoff at it. Ignoring the power of their utter stupidity won't make it go away.

Europeans have been moralizing over the divided US since our founding, when they scarcely believed that a collection of colonies with distinct political, geographic, economic and religious differences could unify under one banner.

There is nothing new about it, and it's always been wrong. The fact is, such a comment, as old as it is, reflects the fact that until the second half of the 20th century, the only parts of Europe that were Unified and really worked at all, were monocultural, monoethnic, mostly monoreligious, mostly monoeconomic. Basically, 250 years of Europeans have been consistently wrong in transposing their own experience on their cousins across the ocean who, on this issue, we have very little in common.

Americans have always been kicking each others political asses. We will ALWAYS be having it out with our neighbor here. It is basically the American way. 200 years from now, we'll find something new to argue over, just as we were arguing over the important issues of the time 200 years ago. And it'll be nasty.

This "unity" talk - and Americans do it too sometimes - is a load of facile nonsense. It's inserting an unrealistic and dare I say, undesirable prerequisite to efficiency and action because some folks (not accusing you of this) can't handle Americans being nasty to their fellow Americans.

I look at it a different way. The internal political fighting is usually rather darwinian. The most rotten of policies pushed by one side or another during a political fight survive for long. If a policy can't survive a sustained, uncompromising assault, then the policy wasn't well formed to begin with.

Unity is for the birds. Show me my political battle ax. There will ALWAYS be another fight. And that's a very good thing. But it's not for the timid.

These people you see here whining about unity (not you, generally not Europeans). They're timid. The political fight won't go away just to make their anxiety over raised voices easy on them.

And make these idiots stop poking at Europe. Everytime they do that, they influence people like me to push back. This isn't about me. This is happening all over Europe. Nothing, NOTHING forges a nation better than outside pressure. We already have a European identity... and we can endure a lot of suffering. But at some point, if you apply enough pressure, you will create a diamond. And you won't have any control over it. This is not what you want, because while you want to think that everyone follows US' lead, Europe does it grudgingly more often than not, because let's face it... the US is making all the mistakes we've already made. We know why going into Iraq was a bullshit idea. We've told you before. Oh, I know... fangirl Britain squealed with delight because you asked her on a date in Iraq, but they've done the walk of shame immediately afterwards.

You're not immune. And your success is not guaranteed. Don't fuck it up, man. If we have to throw this on our own, I swear we will recolonise the shithole that is the third world...

(yes, Mods, the last bit is sarcastic, stop with the infraction :P)

Oh we've been trying. These people are just completely embarrassing.

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The US is largely responsible for the instability in recent years. That you've created these problems and then muster up your defences in "response" to a situation that the US created itself is worrisome and speaks volumes about misunderstanding the problem. China isn't a military opponent, they're an economical one. A misjudgement on your part that I will keep repeating for a while longer, because I'm not convinced your assessment is correct regarding China.

China is definetly a military opponent, and thinking of them in other terms is obsolete. It just makes it easy on Europe.

Or let me put it like this. When China is developing military equipment specifically to counter where we are vulnerable, and then deploying them in a fashion compatible with that, that by definition makes them a military opponent.

We are here, in 2018, because of nearly 20 years of thinking through China through economic terms. It's never been that. And we're in a lot worse shape than we should be because of that.

And all that instability we have wrought? Small potateos. Really. Big picture? Entirely irrelevant. Refugees. Brushfire wars. Expressions of discontent from Brussels about disproporatinate actions. No matter the suffering, no matter the faults... meaningless.

US vs China is the big one. The one that will lead to either Cold War II or World War III. And both mean that the long tail of the 20th century will finally be over and shape what comes next. There is a thought historians have, that the 19th century really didn't end until 1913, when World War I broke out. The same is true of the 21st century. It may not have really started until when Russia invaded Crimea in 2014, or when China started to island build or the 2007-2008 Financial Crisis. It could still be ahead of us.

But the 20th century mode of things that things are comfortable to Europeans and organized through economic terms? Obsolete.

As for Russia, they are a regional power, don't give them more credit than they're due. Arming up against them is not as important as you think it to be. Your direction is too militant and doesn't solve problems, it creates another cold war trench warfare situation where nothing gets resolved. Let's be honest here, the US spending on military is way, way out of proportion.

We don't spend enough. We will be spending more.

And it's killing your budget.

No entitlements do.

Money you could use to mend your country instead.

The things that need "mending" are the responsibility of state and local taxes, not federal taxes. Our combined Federal+state+local budget is about twice the federal budget alone. Infrastructure, for example, is not the job of the Federal government. The feds assist. The states pay for most of it.

That you even have to discuss universal healthcare speaks about how far behind the US actually is in terms of evolution.

Defense expenditure is more important than universal healthcare, the end.

You have wide spread poverty.

State and local issue, not federal. State and local taxes.

Oh, not the fancy "I can only afford caviar once a week" poverty we have in Europe, I mean the actual starving and crime inducing poverty that is ravaging through your nation. You have build yourselves nice illusions in those suburbs, but Trump is a symptom of an illness that goes beyond anything that you could spend with military spending.

State and local issue.

To put it bluntly, I really don't care to be taxed more to have my federal dollars fight poverty in Kentucky. To fight it in Massachusetts, I'd happily see a raise in my taxes.

We are highly federalized.

We've noticed a trend in the US, when they fuck up domestically, they tend to gloss over it with international agendas. You're doing just the same. Fix your own country first, then talk about grand global cold wars.

We can walk and chew bubblegum. We did during the Cold War after all.

I mean what you're suggesting here is intrinsically ridiculous. The US was riven in a way that makes today look quaint during the 1960s and 1970s. Did we just take our global responsibilities off?

Fuck no. We expanded them.

We got problems. When don't we? But we can address them bit by bit while doing our global role, and it's absurd to suggest otherwise. Different people and different monies doing different things.

That reality you are about to live in? Not Europes reality. I dare say we'll divert and just "get along" with other people.

Europe doesn't dictate reality. It isn't powerful enough and it won't be.

The US and China are the ones dictating reality, and god help the rest of the world caught between them.

I really think people, especially Europeans on this, the 100th anniversary of the end of World War I, are underestimating how bad this can, and is likely to get. The US is about to be the defending team in the Thucydides trap. Keep in mind how the US reacts to threats.

I put the chances of a major conflict in the Indopacific region between the US and China in the next 30 years at about 60% (or better than 50/50 odds). The world just isn't big enough for the both of us.

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I am aware. Just putting a US retreat into perspective as to "why" from a... reasonable point of view such a retreat would be bad as things currently stand. Even if I am personally wary of where the US will go with the breakdown of political civility. If a constitutional change can happen to put the rules now flaunted into place and as actual rules and not guidelines I see hope. Otherwise I personally see autocracy. The fact that a 55% voter turnout is considered "good" in the US is you know, not a thing that speaks volumes about the population actually throwing an autocracy off themselves if it fixes the mess.

However, this is off topic. Kangodo is a US hater who thinks the US is what stands between him and a communist utopia. Which I mostly just pointed out to Slant, with what he responded too.
Personally I want a consolidated EU army for reasons you've often talked about. On this however, it is true that the US is the "biggest threat" to peace. Just in the exact opposite way Kangodo means.

I mean part of this gets back to the classic definition of "what is peace".

As for unity, see above in my reply to Slant. We're not Europe. Europeans have been waiting for America to stop ripping itself apart for 250 years.

[Slant]

Europe doesn't dictate reality. It isn't powerful enough and it won't be.

The US and China are the ones dictating reality, and god help the rest of the world caught between them.

I really think people, especially Europeans on this, the 100th anniversary of the end of World War I, are underestimating how bad this can, and is likely to get. The US is about to be the defending team in the Thucydides trap. Keep in mind how the US reacts to threats.

I put the chances of a major conflict in the Indopacific region between the US and China in the next 30 years at about 60% (or better than 50/50 odds). The world just isn't big enough for the both of us.

Oh, Europe is absolutely dictating its own reality. The US isn't calling the shots here. We're already past that. You're here, because you're our guests. Because we're still in NATO and because we're still friends. But this blip called Trump has put that in question for some already. You think this is some... temporary moodiness? Remember the 60s and our resistance to those nuclear weapons? That largely resolved itself around a stout pro-American Government seeing the value in the NATO umbrella. If we got that same movement today, we might just quit NATO and drag the rest of the EU with us, aka NATO lite without the US. We'd simply bank on you not having a good reason to attack Europe, while we remind everyone just why Europe is the master of warfare and buildup. You make the same mistake everyone else does, you keep thinking.. oh Europe, those socialists, they don't spend enough, their military is shit. Yes, it is shit. And we don't spend a lot. By choice. Don't delude yourself into thinking that grabbing German scientists and their innovations somehow means you invented spaceflight or the jet age. Or heck, even stealth. Your radars? Based on British technology. All the cool toys you have? You have because of Europe in no small part.

So yes, we will dictate our own reality. It's up to you if you want to be on our side or not. Entirely up to you. And if you don't care about Europe, that's fine, but don't pretend like we owe you shit. We're getting along fine with China. We will not help you there. If you provoke them into a conflict, you're on your own. And make no mistake, you are the provocateur. China has made it very clear in the past 100 years or so that their interest is very, very regional. Protect Japan if you must, but Taiwan is none of your business. And you have no idea how close to desaster you were when your idiot president Trump even talked about Taiwan that one time. That flew over everyone's radar, but that was way more dangerous than the whole clownshow with NK.

Btw, India? Really? They're more likely to drag you into yet another pointless regional conflict with a Muslim state than help you. Their entire arsenal of aircraft is Russian. How exactly are you "building them up"? Because the only one equipping them seems to be Russia.

[Acidbaron]

I disagree with the notion that there's something as an european identity, as Europe is relatively new and constantly changing. Last but not least people first and foremost identify with the region they are from not even the nation at times.

[Everwake]

It's a great idea. Europe has millions of migrants sitting around doing nothing, so why not conscript them into military service?

[zealo]

Europes to stupid to have a unified army. One thing the US gets right is it takes people from all backgrounds and gets them under 1 roof to fight. Europe is a continent full of people with long histories of war against each other. They are not going to be a cohesive fighting force because they never were, If anything they are going to let germany call the shots and when WWIII starts we will know why.

That hyper-militarism the German state inherited from Prussia upon unification in 1871 has been thoroughly scrubbed from modern Germany.

It's nothing short of delusion to believe the Germany of 2018 is the same as the one that started two world wars.

[Eveningforest]

England, Czech Republic, Norway, Switzerland, Denmark, Poland etc are not using the Euro currency. You don't get to dictate us. The EU is not even a country so this army wont exist. You will never become like the United States of America.

You have so many poor countries to support yet you think you can sustain a new military army?. Give me a break. You will keep bowing down to the Americans for years to come because you need them for protection. They have many military bases worldwide so you wont get rid of them. They rebuilt Europe after WW2.

Without our British soldiers and the Americans fighting in WW1 and WW2, you lot would be speaking German. Europeans are backstabbers. Just like the French.

What an absolutely ridiculous post. Half of those countries are not even in the EU and currency is irrelevant to any of this. And if you think a small and insignificant country like the Czech Republic is going to distance itself from the EU currently, you're sorely mistaken. After centuries of experience with major European powerhouses like the Holy Roman Empire and the Habsburg Monarchy, those people know when it's time to stay quiet and go along with things. It's a matter of survival.

Time to show off some American ignorance again. But I guess you realize that's what it is, that's why you made a brand new account just to make this post.

[Azadina]

In order for EU to have proper deterrence against any hostilities from Russia or USA, EU will need to build a fleet of nuclear submarines. Anything else won't do. They are not going to care, until they know for sure, that EU has a capability to exact extreme damage in case of an attack against it.

[Felya]

In order for EU to have proper deterrence against any hostilities from Russia or USA, EU will need to build a fleet of nuclear submarines. Anything else won't do. They are not going to care, until they know for sure, that EU has a capability to exact extreme damage in case of an attack against it.

Oh jeebus... we went through this 60 years ago... everyone having a shit ton of nukes isn’t a good idea. Someone like Trump should explain why, not create demand for it.

[Azadina]

Oh jeebus... we went through this 60 years ago... everyone having a shit ton of nukes isn’t a good idea. Someone like Trump should explain why, not create demand for it.

I'm sure you're more than willing to dismantle your nuclear subs, as well as all nuclear weapons then? No? Thought so. Precisely why EU would need the ability aswell. Not for MAD, but enough to make cities on coasts disappear is deterrence enough. In Russias case, Moscow.

[Independent voter]

I support a European Army.

More European countries should embrace the euro as well.

The US will withdraw from the world stage and return to our insular nation. If there's trouble and Europe needs help, we can send troops there in a week or two.

I don't see why the US should keep 65,000 soldiers in Europe, it's a waste of money.

[zealo]

Oh jeebus... we went through this 60 years ago... everyone having a shit ton of nukes isn’t a good idea. Someone like Trump should explain why, not create demand for it.

European countries like France already have their own nukes, along with nuclear disarmament as a concept dying. Germany is also a latent nuclear power to the point where they could start building them very quickly.

Such a move would be more about increasing European ability to deliver them as a deterrence.

[Mayhem]

I disagree with the notion that there's something as an european identity, as Europe is relatively new and constantly changing. Last but not least people first and foremost identify with the region they are from not even the nation at times.

Well, polls suggest something different, but ok. Considering the amount of travel I do within Europe year by year it becomes harder and harder for me to identify not with Europe as a whole.

[Deleted]

The US system of international alliances, which is far more durable than any empire, isn't going anywhere. With the focus on China in years ahead, more likely it will be expanding. Remember: the US has been building a secret weapon against China for years. It'll be decades more before it's ready. But when it is... it'll change everything in Eurasia. That weapon? India.

Considering that my country closest ally is America by far, it is in my interest to see you survive and win the incoming Sino-American clash that shall define the future of our world.

India has failed to capitalize on its massive population like China has. Manufacturing has been proven again and again to be one of the best ways of absorbing a large youth demographic into a workforce and get them contributing to productivity. With the incoming automation, the time frame for India to become anything even remotely comparable to China is coming to a end.

Around 50% of Indian workforce is employed in agriculture and related activities which is only 13.7% of GDP. That is the reason of huge number of poor people. The farming sector in India is plagued with lack of irrigation, storage system, lack of modern equipment and methods, and also organized markets. There is also a great risk of India becoming like Latin America. A combination of extreme inequality and extreme crime level. It is also worth mentioning that India has now entered the demographic danger zone. This is the period when there are increasingly greater number of people entering adulthood every year. Without job avenues they will bring the system to a massive bottleneck. Combine this with the fact that India is filled with many ethnic groups, languages, religions, separatist movements and you have a country whose political future looks rather grim.

India and Russia will remain friendly because there are no real areas of contention, and because of mutual interests in making sure China does not become aggressive to them. India and China will remain neutral to one another, neither side has any political desire to wage war upon the other because of American interests.