[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[Nigel Tufnel]

Ah yes I remember that small local disturbance, was it this decade or last? Hardly a weekly pan continental riot though...

Meanwhile back at the polls the latest yougov is out and any guesses eurochums?

Scenario: Remain vs. May Deal vs No Deal

Remain: 46%
Leave with May deal: 27%
Leave without deal: 27%

Fieldwork: 27/11/18-4/12/18
Sample: 20,910

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/sta...527023622?s=09

That'd be Remain = 46% Leave 54%

Nice, very very nice. Did someone still want a second referendum?

Mr D - address these questions:

a) in a three way FPTP poll (not outside the realm of possibility), Remain would win
b) in a two way poll (parliament vetos No Deal) with Remain and May's Deal on the ballot paper, it'd be too close to call as not all those who would vote for May's Deal would do so if No Deal were not an option (strange but true - see raw data above)
c) in a three way preferential vote poll No Deal would always lose to Remain, even if it beat May's Deal in the first round

If there is a referendum, No Deal will not happen.

No Deal, which I thought was what you want, might happen by accident. That's it.

[dribbles]

Mr D - address these questions:

a) in a three way FPTP poll (not outside the realm of possibility), Remain would win
b) in a two way poll (parliament vetos No Deal) with Remain and May's Deal on the ballot paper, it'd be too close to call as not all those who would vote for May's Deal would do so if No Deal were not an option (strange but true - see raw data above)
c) in a three way preferential vote poll No Deal would always lose to Remain, even if it beat May's Deal in the first round

If there is a referendum, No Deal will not happen.

No Deal, which I thought was what you want, might happen by accident. That's it.

It would be odd, if not impossible, to have May's deal on the ballot paper though after parliament votes it down next week.

So that only leave or remain can be the question put back to the people. As it was last time, what will it solve? I think leave would win but even suppose remain won, what will it be then? Best of three/five and so on?

I don't think there is any chance of a new referendum, even less so a complicated, for the average Joe, three way.

Time is on the leavers side Nigel, let's just mooch along until March 2019 how we are, no one is rioting or burning the place down after all. Who knows what would happen if the government did something extremely serious like slapping a penny on fuel duty, we only have to peer across the channel lol

I bet we'd still just sup tea, or Gin.

[Nigel Tufnel]

It would be odd, if not impossible, to have May's deal on the ballot paper though after parliament votes it down next week.

Yep, but that's if you subscribe to the: it'll be voted down substantially opinion. If Pann's prediction is right, it won't be voted down substantially, May will survive and it'll come back a second time after Xmas.

I mean fundamentally, yes, you're right: there are a lot of hypotheticals.

Really, there's no point arguing about it any more... we're kind of reaching the end game and what happens, happens. Next week will be interesting / depressing / elating / comical / etc. depending on what viewpoint you hold.

[Pann]

It would be odd, if not impossible, to have May's deal on the ballot paper though after parliament votes it down next week.

So that only leave or remain can be the question put back to the people. As it was last time, what will it solve? I think leave would win but even suppose remain won, what will it be then? Best of three/five and so on?

I don't think there is any chance of a new referendum, even less so a complicated, for the average Joe, three way.

Time is on the leavers side Nigel, let's just mooch along until March 2019 how we are, no one is rioting or burning the place down after all. Who knows what would happen if the government did something extremely serious like slapping a penny on fuel duty, we only have to peer across the channel lol

I bet we'd still just sup tea, or Gin.

A referendum might be the only way May can get her deal through but it would be risky. Very risky.

I can't see the proposed questions, remain, leave May's deal or leave no deal, satisfying the referendum guidelines so I think that a three way referendum based on these options is a non-starter.

I think the chances of another referendum are slim but I wouldn't rule it out completely. I think MPs would like another one, if just to absolve themselves of making a decision, but they won't risk no-deal on the ticket and are wary of causing further division.

I've said it before but I don't think the time limit will work in leavers' favour if anything I think it will be more likely that MPs will panic vote for May's deal in order to avoid leaving without a deal.

- - - Updated - - -

Yep, but that's if you subscribe to the: it'll be voted down substantially opinion. If Pann's prediction is right, it won't be voted down substantially, May will survive and it'll come back a second time after Xmas.

I mean fundamentally, yes, you're right: there are a lot of hypotheticals.

Really, there's no point arguing about it any more... we're kind of reaching the end game and what happens, happens. Next week will be interesting / depressing / elating / comical / etc. depending on what viewpoint you hold.

My prediction is based on there being no appetite for no-deal in parliament and with time running out and no other option on the table, they will vote through May's deal.

But I could be wrong as things are moving very quickly.

[Demolitia]

In case anyone is wondering, that article title is rubbish click bait.

A single police car being put on fire during protests in a massive city like Brussels =/= BRUSSELS IN FLAMES!!!!!!!!1!!11!!!111

anything from the express is clickbait. If the random caps don't make it crystal clear, I don't know what could.

[Amalaric]

It's time to say goodbye to the country with the worlds most expensive currency. (You won't be missed)

[Pann]

It's time to say goodbye to the country with the worlds most expensive currency. (You won't be missed)

Kuwait??? What have they done?

[Kronik85]

Kuwait??? What have they done?

I'm sure they meant to say "after we leave the EU". When the pound will be made from gold and refined Unicorn shit. Oh and of course be benefiting from those incredible trade deals we will be striking that we can't get whilst being in the EU.

[Huehuecoyotl]

A referendum might be the only way May can get her deal through but it would be risky. Very risky.

I can't see the proposed questions, remain, leave May's deal or leave no deal, satisfying the referendum guidelines so I think that a three way referendum based on these options is a non-starter.

I think the chances of another referendum are slim but I wouldn't rule it out completely. I think MPs would like another one, if just to absolve themselves of making a decision, but they won't risk no-deal on the ticket and are wary of causing further division.

I've said it before but I don't think the time limit will work in leavers' favour if anything I think it will be more likely that MPs will panic vote for May's deal in order to avoid leaving without a deal.

I honestly don't think there is any point in debating this further with Dribbles. Anything any of us say will be replied to with a logic free reiteration of his baseless assertion that it's just a matter of time before no-deal. As if both the UK and EU leaders are going to sit there for the next three months with their arms folded saying "nothing we can do guvnor" in various accents.

The simple fact is we can't be certain what's going to happen in the next weeks and months. We have disagreed about how it plays out, but I believe we both agree that no-deal simply won't be allowed to happen, and certainly not by accident. At this point it's the May deal, or it's no Brexit. With a variety of hilarious* routes to either.

Even if it does get to a second referendum, I can't see no-deal being allowed on it. Could they really take the chance that it wins, considering the damage it would do?

*Really not fucking hilarious at all.

[Kronik85]

I honestly don't think there is any point in debating this further with Dribbles.

I know this is probably one of my main assertions in this thread but at what point did you ever think that you were "debating" with dribbles? It almost makes me feel crazy, like you guys are having a conversation with a mannequin and I'm sat there screaming at you "it's a fucking doll! It won't answer you!" but you guys are all sat nodding along pretending you're getting some feedback from it.

[Pann]

I honestly don't think there is any point in debating this further with Dribbles. Anything any of us say will be replied to with a logic free reiteration of his baseless assertion that it's just a matter of time before no-deal. As if both the UK and EU leaders are going to sit there for the next three months with their arms folded saying "nothing we can do guvnor" in various accents.

The simple fact is we can't be certain what's going to happen in the next weeks and months. We have disagreed about how it plays out, but I believe we both agree that no-deal simply won't be allowed to happen, and certainly not by accident. At this point it's the May deal, or it's no Brexit. With a variety of hilarious* routes to either.

Even if it does get to a second referendum, I can't see no-deal being allowed on it. Could they really take the chance that it wins, considering the damage it would do?

*Really not fucking hilarious at all.

Thanks for the advice. To be honest I quite like debating with dribbles. Whilst I don't agree with him, once you take away the frequent wind ups (which you all fall for time and time again) he does know what he is talking about. Unfortunately this thread is such an echo chamber that point scoring against him has become so important that even when he makes a factually correct point it is disregarded.

dribbles is quite correct when says that there are substantial obstacles that make leaving without a deal through inaction a very real possibility. I don't think that the obstacles are as insurmountable as dribbles portrays but nonetheless they cannot be ignored and the fact remains he might be right and I might be wrong.

[Nigel Tufnel]

It's time to say goodbye to the country with the worlds most expensive currency. (You won't be missed)

Ahh... it’s the squid-loving Michael Caine fan.

Thanks for your sage words.

[Slant]

I honestly don't think there is any point in debating this further with Dribbles. Anything any of us say will be replied to with a logic free reiteration of his baseless assertion that it's just a matter of time before no-deal. As if both the UK and EU leaders are going to sit there for the next three months with their arms folded saying "nothing we can do guvnor" in various accents.

The simple fact is we can't be certain what's going to happen in the next weeks and months. We have disagreed about how it plays out, but I believe we both agree that no-deal simply won't be allowed to happen, and certainly not by accident. At this point it's the May deal, or it's no Brexit. With a variety of hilarious* routes to either.

Even if it does get to a second referendum, I can't see no-deal being allowed on it. Could they really take the chance that it wins, considering the damage it would do?

*Really not fucking hilarious at all.

Small reality check from the EU here, because this doesn't seem to have struck, yet...

When Brexit happens is not in question. It will happen on March 30th, given nothing else happens. That's the default state. That is the automatism that everyone needs to avoid. If you do not avoid this automatism, the default state, the new "natural state of affairs", you will have a no deal scenario.

Given that both Tory and Labour are still giving interviews daily about "time extensions" and "renegotiation", I am not sure if your people actually understand the seriousness of your predicament. They still think they have time. They think they can "talk to the EU" and come to an amiable solution. The EU is done with Brexit. There is no more political play to make. The British politicians may think they are the centre of the world, and to their tiny country they are... but even if they agree to May's deal, which by the way isn't "her deal", it's the negotiated position of the EU and the UK. And certainly she wasn't the one coming up with it, it is the only way the EU can endorse that doesn't outright break the EU or the GFA. There is no renegotiating to be done.

But as I was saying, even if they agree to this agreement, only one member state in the EU has to fail in ratifying it and reject it for it to fly out the window. Even if the UK did all it could, you still have that risk of a no deal scenario, whether you want it or not.

Your only card left to play, the only thing that is 100% under your control: No Brexit. That is your only, your safest option. This deal, let's be honest... it's a makeshift compromise you shouldn't take. Really, don't take it... from my point of view, it's the best deal the EU could possibly get. Heck, if you're accepting it, I'd actually go back in time to watch this unfold all over again. The UK would be absolutely dependent on the EU in a vassal state, following all of our regulation, remaining in the same position they are in now... but having no say in it. Not even about when this state ends. You cannot possibly take this deal. It would be treasonous.

[Mayhem]

Thanks for the advice. To be honest I quite like debating with dribbles. Whilst I don't agree with him, once you take away the frequent wind ups (which you all fall for time and time again) he does know what he is talking about. Unfortunately this thread is such an echo chamber that point scoring against him has become so important that even when he makes a factually correct point it is disregarded.

dribbles is quite correct when says that there are substantial obstacles that make leaving without a deal through inaction a very real possibility. I don't think that the obstacles are as insurmountable as dribbles portrays but nonetheless they cannot be ignored and the fact remains he might be right and I might be wrong.

Aren't you the "don't bash britain" guy? Oh, no, sorry, it was "don't bash nations", I confused you with someone who stays true to themselves. Silly me.

So, since he knows what he's talking about, you have some examples? A post number would be enough, no need to c/p. I just want to know what you're talking about here.

edit: and while you're at it, could you show us when you were debating with dribbles? You know, because you like it, so it was a number of times in this thread, right?

[dribbles]

Small reality check from the EU here, because this doesn't seem to have struck, yet...

When Brexit happens is not in question. It will happen on March 30th, given nothing else happens. That's the default state. That is the automatism that everyone needs to avoid. If you do not avoid this automatism, the default state, the new "natural state of affairs", you will have a no deal scenario.

Given that both Tory and Labour are still giving interviews daily about "time extensions" and "renegotiation", I am not sure if your people actually understand the seriousness of your predicament. They still think they have time. They think they can "talk to the EU" and come to an amiable solution. The EU is done with Brexit. There is no more political play to make. The British politicians may think they are the centre of the world, and to their tiny country they are... but even if they agree to May's deal, which by the way isn't "her deal", it's the negotiated position of the EU and the UK. And certainly she wasn't the one coming up with it, it is the only way the EU can endorse that doesn't outright break the EU or the GFA. There is no renegotiating to be done.

But as I was saying, even if they agree to this agreement, only one member state in the EU has to fail in ratifying it and reject it for it to fly out the window. Even if the UK did all it could, you still have that risk of a no deal scenario, whether you want it or not.

Your only card left to play, the only thing that is 100% under your control: No Brexit. That is your only, your safest option. This deal, let's be honest... it's a makeshift compromise you shouldn't take. Really, don't take it... from my point of view, it's the best deal the EU could possibly get. Heck, if you're accepting it, I'd actually go back in time to watch this unfold all over again. The UK would be absolutely dependent on the EU in a vassal state, following all of our regulation, remaining in the same position they are in now... but having no say in it. Not even about when this state ends. You cannot possibly take this deal. It would be treasonous.

Hard to believe this but I would have liked to, and in the past perhaps tried, have written exactly the same.

After 500 odd pages the Anglo Saxons are as one once again, only one most important thing missing from this excellent piece that ought to be in there, and I feel I must add it, as a post script is....

Tick tock.

[Xarkan]

Race riots have been a thing in England since the 1950s, Notting Hill, Brixton (several times), Toxteth and most recently Bradford.

And though not race related, in 2011 rioting broke out across England.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_England_riots

The picture was, as far as i know, from 2011. The picture was a link to the article were that picture is from (though i searched for the "uk 2011 riot" and just picked a random picture, the article was linked only because the picture is theirs. The articles content was irrelevant to the message, i really do not care if riots are due to community spirit or maybe i care because that is just crazy)

But that was as dribbles put it

Ah yes I remember that small local disturbance, was it this decade or last? Hardly a weekly pan continental riot though...

[Amalaric]

Ahh... it’s the squid-loving Michael Caine fan.

Thanks for your sage words.

You are welcome.

[Gigantique]

I can't believe I need to explain this, but no, "one in the same" is not a correct usage, it's a mistake. No, it doesn't mean something subtly different. It doesn't mean anything. You heard the phrase wrong and didn't think about the component words and how they would make grammatical sense.


https://www.quora.com/Which-is-corre...ne-in-the-same

"One in the same" is an eggcorn:


https://grammarist.com/usage/one-in-the-same/

An eggcorn is... well I'll give you a definition of that phrase because you probably don't know it:



"Eggcorn" is a mishearing of "acorn", that's where the word comes from. The idea is that someone who doesn't know how to spell "acorn" mishears "eggcorn", and assumes this makes sense because an acorn kind of looks like an egg and/or kernel of corn, ie egg-corn.

Kind of like how you've misheard "one and the same" as "one in the same" (which is easy to do, because "and" and "in" often reduce to the unstressed pronunciation "ən" in common speech due to being short syllables - this is why you sometimes see "and" spelled "'n"), and you've assumed they're different things.

P.S. I only speak one language, my native tongue. I repeat, learn the freaking language.

Rarely do I post as I mainly just lurk around, but man, you didn’t even give the poor guy a CHANCE at getting himself out of that. Bravo to you!

[Kronik85]

Dribbles confirmed not british or from the UK.

In the early days of the thread their location was USA. Double points for you though considering you've been a female anarchist and a male war veteren.

[Teleros]

When Brexit happens is not in question. It will happen on March 30th, given nothing else happens.

/dance

Given that both Tory and Labour are still giving interviews daily about "time extensions" and "renegotiation", I am not sure if your people actually understand the seriousness of your predicament. They still think they have time. They think they can "talk to the EU" and come to an amiable solution. The EU is done with Brexit.

The impression I get is that the EU would be willing to give more time if it meant no Brexit (or Brexit-in-name-only). Rather hoping you're right on this one.

Your only card left to play, the only thing that is 100% under your control: No Brexit.

Yeah, let's burn London to the ground again :P . Do you want to bring the rope for the MPs, or should I?

That is your only, your safest option.

No and no. Full steam ahead for a real (WTO rules) Brexit.

This deal, let's be honest... it's a makeshift compromise you shouldn't take. Really, don't take it... from my point of view, it's the best deal the EU could possibly get. Heck, if you're accepting it, I'd actually go back in time to watch this unfold all over again. The UK would be absolutely dependent on the EU in a vassal state, following all of our regulation, remaining in the same position they are in now... but having no say in it. Not even about when this state ends. You cannot possibly take this deal. It would be treasonous.

And just like that we're agreeing again.