Mega-Thread: Mueller investigation

[zorkuus]

Excellent summary and I think it's accurate to say we're at least looking at #5 given the degree to which the campaign was penetrated. That obviously should be impeachment territory. The guy is either a traitor or so incompetent and oblivious he should not be president. Or both.

You'd be right. Trump was warned by the Obama administration about an impending effort by the russians to influence the election. He ignored it because he was either complicit, uncaring (because it would serve him) or incompetent.

[Stormspark]

Excellent summary and I think it's accurate to say we're at least looking at #5 given the degree to which the campaign was penetrated. That obviously should be impeachment territory. The guy is either a traitor or so incompetent and oblivious he should not be president. Or both.

It's not 5, it's either 6 or 7. I think it's 7, but for Trump's case he doesn't particularly care about either the US or Russia, but he will do things for Russia if they offer anything that makes Trump think he will personally financially benefit (whether he does or not is beside the point). He has no long term memory, very little short term memory, and his only thought is "how can I make as much money for me as possible" with no regard for anything else.

[Warning]

It's not 5, it's either 6 or 7. I think it's 7, but for Trump's case he doesn't particularly care about either the US or Russia, but he will do things for Russia if they offer anything that makes Trump think he will personally financially benefit (whether he does or not is beside the point). He has no long term memory, very little short term memory, and his only thought is "how can I make as much money for me as possible" with no regard for anything else.

We don't essentially disagree, but I put "worked with Russia for financial gain" under #5 and interpreted #7 more narrowly as meaning: "working with Russia on ideological grounds".

The reason I did that is that the scenarios seem to be ordered to be progressively worse. An aware Trump (#5) would be working with Russia but only to the extent it helped his personal enrichment. A compromised Trump (#6) would be working primarily for Russia with the more powerful motivation of not wanting to see his life destroyed, but still against his will. The worst case scenario of full blown Russian Agent Trump (#7) would be entirely on board with the Russian agenda.

Clearly whichever it is it's not looking pretty.

[Shalcker]

Except Clinton was impeached.....

I know.

It passed House and failed in Senate.

Easily could happen same way with Trump given current split.

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I would hate to be the guy that has to write all that.

Got to earn his turnips.

[Jtbrig7390]

Easily could happen same way with Trump given current split.

No chance of it happening. The GOP is at a great risk of losing power in 2020, If its them or Trump they will vote Trumps ass off the island in a heart beat. If they back that horse come 2020 they can kiss there majority goodbye and the fallow up would still be Trump getting impeached.

There is no outcome here where Trump stays president if by some magical way he actually wins in 2020. Trumps clock as president is ticking down and it will end before his second term "if he makes it that far" ends.

I personally want him to be President when Muller hands his ass to him and his fanbase. It will just make it all so much more sweeter.

[Shalcker]

If you ever needed proof of Shalcker's country of origin...

I think i've eaten turnips like... five times in my 39 years of life?

It is fine cooked, but our supermarkets don't even stock them.

So i don't understand what kind of Cold War trope you're trying to resurrect with it.

[Draco-Onis]

I know.

It passed House and failed in Senate.

Easily could happen same way with Trump given current split.

After the bloodbath that was the midterm that does not seem to be likely, Trump's hold on the republican party is shaky to put it lightly. As soon as enough of the base gets turned off by him they will attack him worse than democrats to cover their ass. It seems that starting to pardon people like Manafort will destroy his base but at the same time if he doesn't deliver those people will rat him out.

[Shalcker]

No chance of it happening. The GOP is at a great risk of losing power in 2020, If its them or Trump they will vote Trumps ass off the island in a heart beat. If they back that horse come 2020 they can kiss there majority goodbye and the fallow up would still be Trump getting impeached.

And Clinton impeachment failure was followed by Bush winning. That was quite close election, but it still happened.

There is no outcome here where Trump stays president if by some magical way he actually wins in 2020. Trumps clock as president is ticking down and it will end before his second term "if he makes it that far" ends.

I can imagine plenty of such outcomes.

I personally want him to be President when Muller hands his ass to him and his fanbase. It will just make it all so much more sweeter.

Except while he is President that is still going to get through House and Senate, who will ultimately decide his fate, not Mueller.

And you seem to be betting on impeachment going through being lesser evil to Republicans then denying it. I think Republicans will consider giving such big "win" to Democrats beyond what they can allow in current political climate.

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It’s almost like colloquialisms have fuck all to do with the person using them, aside from area they were raised... brilliant!

I don't see turnips being colloquialisms... where does that come from?

My quick google search only points to something fairly recent.

I'm just mirroring your image back here because it is absolutely bizarre to me.

[Jtbrig7390]

And Clinton impeachment failure was followed by Bush winning. That was quite close election, but it still happened.

Different election climate, What happen with Clinton does not matter here one bit.

I can imagine plenty of such outcomes.

if you look at the way things are going there is only the outcomes I gave you.

Except while he is President that is still going to get through House and Senate, who will ultimately decide his fate, not Mueller.

And you seem to be betting on impeachment going through being lesser evil to Republicans then denying it. I think Republicans will consider giving such big "win" to Democrats beyond what they can allow in current political climate.

The very moment Trump becomes a major danger to the GOP they will throw him to the wolves. I already told you this has two outcomes.

1. GOP backs Trump and they lose their ass in 2020 fallowed by Trump being impeached if somehow he win's re-election.

or

2. GOP sees Trump as a major danger to the power they still hold and they throw his ass to the wolves to save face. Also still being too dumb to realize they have already lost and will be losing in 2020 anyway.

Yes Republicans hate the Democrats, They hate losing power even more. Push comes to shove they will discard Trump the very moment he because a major threat to them. That moment will be when Muller reveals all. They lose come 2020 how much they lose depends on if they back Trump or not.


We are in the Endgame now.....

[Shalcker]

Different election climate, What happen with Clinton does not matter here one bit.

There are two impeachments in history total, not using closest one means drawing conclusions for outcome of next one out of exactly nothing.

if you look at the way things are going there is only the outcomes I gave you.

We have seen another variation where Trump resigns and Pence pardons him, like Nixon-Ford. That's also a possibility people discussed often.

The very moment Trump because a major danger to the GOP they will throw him to the wolves. I already told you this has two outcomes.
1. GOP backs Trump and they lose their ass in 2020 fallowed by Trump being impeached if somehow he win's re-election.

Seems most likely outcome so far. They can still fight impeachment too.

or
2. GOP sees Trump as a major danger to the power they still hold and they throw his ass to the wolves to save face. Also still being too dumb to realize they have already lost and will be losing in 2020 anyway.

"Saving face" doesn't really seem to be one of GOP values.

They still hope for another Supreme Court vacancy, you know. Got to stack it; impeachment going through can undermine gains already made.

Yes Republicans hate the Democrats, They hate losing power even more. Push comes to shove they will discard Trump the very moment he because a major threat to them. That moment will be when Muller reveals all. They lose come 2020 how much they lose depends on if they back Trump or not.

You're putting too much on Mueller.

I bet that "hush payment" is going to be much more prominent there then "Russian collusion", and it will end up exactly like Clinton's.

We are in the Endgame now.....

Likely a few years from that.

[Xyonai]

Different election climate, What happen with Clinton does not matter here one bit.



if you look at the way things are going there is only the outcomes I gave you.



The very moment Trump becomes a major danger to the GOP they will throw him to the wolves. I already told you this has two outcomes.

1. GOP backs Trump and they lose their ass in 2020 fallowed by Trump being impeached if somehow he win's re-election.

or

2. GOP sees Trump as a major danger to the power they still hold and they throw his ass to the wolves to save face. Also still being too dumb to realize they have already lost and will be losing in 2020 anyway.

Yes Republicans hate the Democrats, They hate losing power even more. Push comes to shove they will discard Trump the very moment he because a major threat to them. That moment will be when Muller reveals all. They lose come 2020 how much they lose depends on if they back Trump or not.


We are in the Endgame now.....

I think they'll stick with Trump to the bitter end if only to keep the 30% voting for them in the future, or are trying to bank on their naked power grabs (As seen in Michigan and Wisconsin) and their Gerrymandering to keep power despite how much the country is turning against their ideologies. To some of them this might be the last time their party has any major power in years and I can see them being very reluctant to give it up willingly.

The only good thing that's really come out of the Trump Residency is how much he's emboldened the worst aspects of the GOP; people who saw the base forgive Trump's shitty behavior so easily and assumed they had free reign to chip away at our democracy because they're sore losers and either do not understand that most people don't actually want them, or simply do not care. And now they're going to lose what meager power they gained in the last two or three years, and I just hope it sticks this time.

[Jtbrig7390]

I think they'll stick with Trump to the bitter end if only to keep the 30% voting for them in the future, or are trying to bank on their naked power grabs (As seen in Michigan and Wisconsin) and their Gerrymandering to keep power despite how much the country is turning against their ideologies. To some of them this might be the last time their party has any major power in years and I can see them being very reluctant to give it up willingly.

The only good thing that's really come out of the Trump Residency is how much he's emboldened the worst aspects of the GOP; people who saw the base forgive Trump's shitty behavior so easily and assumed they had free reign to chip away at our democracy because they're sore losers and either do not understand that most people don't actually want them, or simply do not care. And now they're going to lose what meager power they gained in the last two or three years, and I just hope it sticks this time.

I fully agree, No matter how this plays out the GOP loses and the only good thing they did was getting people off their ass to vote and revealing how shitty they are.

[Xyonai]

I fully agree, No matter how this plays out the GOP loses and the only good thing they did was getting people off their ass to vote and revealing how shitty they are.

Of course I'm still leaving a bit of room to be disappointed, but we're a country stronger then one orange idiot and a bunch of wanna-be fascists.

[Jtbrig7390]

You're putting too much on Mueller.

I bet that "hush payment" is going to be much more prominent there then "Russian collusion", and it will end up exactly like Clinton's.

Likely a few years from that.

(Not replying to the rest of this post cause I have already explained it to you)

As for this part.

I am far from putting too much on Mueller, All the ducks are lining up and here soon we will get the full reveal. But hey ill amuse you a little and pretend Mueller comes up short.

GOP still loses in 2020 and Trump is still out on his ass. We don't actually need the Mueller report to get rid of Trump, That's the big ass icying on the cake. Trump has already done enough that is impeachable.

Lets say Trump steps down and Pence does become President. Cool he pardons Trump. That only protects him on a Federal level, There is enough state level crimes he has committed to throw him behind bars anyway. Also if Pence did become President he wouldn't Pardon Trump at all, The moment Trump isn't in office the GOP will distance themselves from that mess fast.

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Of course I'm still leaving a bit of room to be disappointed, but we're a country stronger then one orange idiot and a bunch of wanna-be fascists.

Agreed.....

[PACOX]

I think they'll stick with Trump to the bitter end if only to keep the 30% voting for them in the future, or are trying to bank on their naked power grabs (As seen in Michigan and Wisconsin) and their Gerrymandering to keep power despite how much the country is turning against their ideologies. To some of them this might be the last time their party has any major power in years and I can see them being very reluctant to give it up willingly.

The only good thing that's really come out of the Trump Residency is how much he's emboldened the worst aspects of the GOP; people who saw the base forgive Trump's shitty behavior so easily and assumed they had free reign to chip away at our democracy because they're sore losers and either do not understand that most people don't actually want them, or simply do not care. And now they're going to lose what meager power they gained in the last two or three years, and I just hope it sticks this time.

A lot of the ones loyal to Trump are at the end of their careers or couldnt get in without him. Sticking with him is profitable. Cash in and get out.

[Dendrek]

It's not 5, it's either 6 or 7. I think it's 7, but for Trump's case he doesn't particularly care about either the US or Russia, but he will do things for Russia if they offer anything that makes Trump think he will personally financially benefit (whether he does or not is beside the point). He has no long term memory, very little short term memory, and his only thought is "how can I make as much money for me as possible" with no regard for anything else.

It very likely is 6 or 7, but can he be impeached for 6 or 7? I suspect it will require a preponderance of evidence to actually prove he was directly involved. If there's only plausible evidence, like testimony, the impeachment proceedings would potentially fail. Don't try the mob boss for murder if you can't prove murder. Try him for tax evasion instead. In this case, 5 would probably be much easier to prove. But if Mueller can prove 6 or 7, holy shit. It would be unprecedented.

[cubby]

It very likely is 6 or 7, but can he be impeached for 6 or 7? I suspect it will require a preponderance of evidence to actually prove he was directly involved. If there's only plausible evidence, like testimony, the impeachment proceedings would potentially fail. Don't try the mob boss for murder if you can't prove murder. Try him for tax evasion instead. In this case, 5 would probably be much easier to prove. But if Mueller can prove 6 or 7, holy shit. It would be unprecedented.

We can impeach him for anything. It will be a crime, and I agree it should be something solid - not necessarily flashy, but a clear crime that is 100% provable.

Agreed. Holy shit is an understatement if it turns out to be true.

[Shalcker]

GOP still loses in 2020 and Trump is still out on his ass. We don't actually need the Mueller report to get rid of Trump, That's the big ass icying on the cake. Trump has already done enough that is impeachable.

Why he isn't impeached yet then? Why do you have to wait until 2020?

Lets say Trump steps down and Pence does become President. Cool he pardons Trump. That only protects him on a Federal level, There is enough state level crimes he has committed to throw him behind bars anyway. Also if Pence did become President he wouldn't Pardon Trump at all, The moment Trump isn't in office the GOP will distance themselves from that mess fast.

You think they'll be backstabbers in this case and yet you rely on their integrity in impeachment case...

Looks contradictory to me.

[Skroe]

Ignore the propagandist above.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...=.30d57523ebbe

But Mueller’s latest court filings offer new evidence of Russian efforts to forge a political alliance with Trump before he became president and detail the extent to which his former aides are cooperating with prosecutors.

Some GOP senators were particularly shaken by this week’s revelation that former national security adviser Michael Flynn had met with Mueller’s team 19 separate times — a distressing signal to them that the probe may be more serious than they had been led to assume, according to senior Republican officials.

Even in the friendliest quarters, there are fresh hints of trouble. Fox News Channel host Tucker Carlson, a reliable prime-time booster of the president, faulted Trump in an interview this week for failing to keep his main campaign promises, understand the legislative process and learn how to govern effectively.

For now, Republicans on Capitol Hill are still inclined to stand by Trump and give the president the benefit of the doubt. But one pro-Trump senator said privately that a breaking point would be if Mueller documents conspiracy with Russians.

“Then they’ve lost me,” said the senator, noting that several Republican lawmakers have been willing to publicly break with Trump when they believe it is in their interests — as many did over Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s role in the brutal killing of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), an outspoken Trump critic and a frequent subject of his ire, said, “The president’s situation is fraught with mounting peril, and that’s apparent to everyone who’s paying any attention, which is all of my Republican colleagues.”

Another possible breaking point could come if Trump pardons his former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, who has elicited the president’s sympathy as he sits in solitary confinement in a Virginia prison following the collapse of his plea agreement with Mueller’s team, White House aides and Republican lawmakers said. Trump advisers said they understand that a pardon of Manafort could be difficult to defend and could prompt rebukes from Republican allies.

The special counsel on Friday accused Manafort of telling “multiple dis*cern*ible lies” during interviews with prosecutors. Manafort was convicted of tax and bank fraud and has pleaded guilty to additional charges, including conspiring to defraud the United States by hiding years of income and failing to disclose lobbying work for a pro-Russian political party and politician in Ukraine.

Trump’s legal team, meanwhile, is bracing not only for new Mueller developments but also for an onslaught of congressional requests. New White House counsel Pat Cipollone and his associate, Emmet T. Flood, are the leaders inside, although both have taken pains to stay out of the spotlight.

When Mueller names Trump directly - and he will - Trump will be thrown to the wolves.

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https://slate.com/news-and-politics/...epage_taps_top

The Reason Prosecutors Hammered Michael Cohen Despite His Cooperation With Robert Mueller

On Friday, federal prosecutors from both the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York and Robert Mueller’s Special Counsel’s Office filed pleadings making sentencing recommendations in the two cases to which former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen has pleaded guilty—tax, bank fraud, and election law violations in New York and one count of lying to Congress brought by Mueller. Taken together, these are remarkable documents, quite unlike anything I can recall seeing in nearly 40 years of practicing and writing about federal sentencing law.

The special counsel’s memo is fairly generous, suggesting that Cohen has provided some information valuable to that office’s inquiries and that his cooperation should be considered in imposing a sentence, specifically by allowing a sentence in the special counsel case to run concurrently to the sentence in the New York case. By contrast, the New York prosecutors’ memo paints a deeply unflattering picture of Cohen as a crooked lawyer, schemer, swindler, tax evader, and eager fixer for “Individual 1,” otherwise known as the current president of the United States. They point out that Cohen has cooperated with the U.S. attorney’s office to only a limited extent and should get no sentencing credit for doing so. They imply that Cohen’s cooperation with the special counsel may be a factor in sentencing the New York case, but end by recommending a “substantial sentence” of imprisonment.

To understand how peculiar these government sentencing pleadings are, it’s important to consider how federal prosecutors customarily deal with cooperating witnesses. First, the sentence for anyone convicted of federal felonies is heavily influenced by the defendant’s sentencing range calculated under the federal sentencing guidelines. Cohens’ guideline range is 51-63 months, essentially 4-5 years. These guidelines are now advisory, but they are still the starting point for any judge’s sentencing decision. In general, a judge will not give a defendant a sentence below the guidelines range based on the defendant’s cooperation with the government unless the government asks the court to do so by filing what is called a “substantial assistance” motion. This is what happened a few days ago with General Michael Flynn.

However, the government never (at least in my experience) makes a “substantial assistance” motion unless the defendant agrees to provide, and then does provide, full cooperation. Indeed, it is rare for the government to suggest that a defendant get any sentencing consideration at all for less than full cooperation. To a federal prosecutor, full cooperation means that the defendant is willing to answer fully, completely, and without reservation any questions about all his own criminal behavior and all the criminal behavior of others of which he is aware. The defendant does not get to pick and choose. Talk about this. Not talk about that. Rat on this co-conspirator. Not rat on that one.

From the government’s perspective, full cooperation is essential, and not merely because prosecutors naturally want all the information they can get. The real issue is that unless the cooperator is willing to talk about everything, the government can never be sure that it is getting the true story. A cooperator who keeps secrets from the government is a potential time bomb in any criminal case because the things he hides from the government have a nasty habit of popping up when the cooperator takes the stand as a witness, destroying both his credibility and that of the government’s case.

As a result, the government generally won’t have any dealings with a defendant who won’t agree to full cooperation. It is only a modest exaggeration to say that the customary response to such a defendant is to throw him out of the office with the parting admonition that he should enjoy his time in the Bureau of Prisons.

But that did not happen here. Instead, Cohen pleaded guilty to two separate sets of serious felony charges without a cooperation agreement, but has nonetheless provided partial cooperation, talking about some subjects, but not others. The picture is of a lifelong con man, trapped, wriggling furiously, but still determined to play both ends against the middle. An incurable hustler, trying to give the government just enough to induce a recommendation of leniency without fully exposing all his own crimes or entirely abandoning his old confederates (notably including “Individual 1”).

And the government’s response is, at least on the surface, very odd. In two ways. The first is the apparent tension between the positions of the New York prosecutors and Mueller. We have the New Yorkers saying to the judge, in effect, “This Cohen guy is a career dirtbag who is holding out on us and his head should be soundly smacked.” Meanwhile, Mueller is saying, “Well, he’s a helpful chap who ought to receive a modest reward.” Of course, neither office is bound to agree with the other, but in a case of this magnitude particularly, one would expect very close cooperation in the preparation of these pleadings.

The second oddity is the timing of the move to sentencing. Ordinarily, sentencings of those who cooperate with the government are delayed until all cooperation, including testimony, is complete. Both sides want that. The government’s leverage over a cooperator lies in the final sentencing recommendation it gives the judge, so it doesn’t want to make a favorable recommendation too early and then have the defendant go south after getting a sentencing benefit. The defendant wants to delay sentencing precisely because he wants the maximum opportunity to demonstrate his candor, repentance, and evidentiary value. But here the government has pushed for sentencing at a point when Cohen has not testified in any public trial or hearing and, notably, while he remains resistant to full disclosure of all he knows.

What’s going on? Here’s my best guess.

Cohen has a lot more he could give. The government knows that. They want to crack him. Moreover, even on the stuff he’s given them so far, he is a less valuable witness so long as he refuses to be fully candid. They are tired of playing his coy little game, and political considerations require speed. So they’ve accelerated sentencing, and set up a classic “good cop – bad cop” squeeze. New York has told the judge to hammer Cohen. By contrast, Mueller looks like a generous friend. Cohen—who like every white collar criminal I’ve ever known is undoubtedly scared silly of going to prison—is facing 4-5 years (and, not improbably, a good deal more if the judge is impatient with his recalcitrance). This crystallizes his choices. Either he quits fiddling around or he goes to the Big House for a long while.

Moreover, an immediate sentencing forces Cohen to make up his mind fast. If he wants to avoid a sentencing in which the Southern District of New York is calling for his head, he has to act within the next few days—his sentencing hearing is scheduled to go ahead on Wednesday. Alternatively, if he gambles and goes ahead with the sentencing and the judge hammers him, there is still one escape hatch. If he decides post-sentencing to open up and cooperate fully, the court could reduce its original sentence, but only if the government makes a special motion to allow that and only if he provides substantial assistance to the government within one year of the original sentence.

In short, the government has just put a ticking clock in front of Michael Cohen. He can’t filibuster anymore. Either he spills his guts or he goes to prison. And the time to decide is right now.

The government is squeezing Cohen.

[lockedout]

The government is squeezing Cohen.

Cohen yes, Trump? Nope. Keep hoping though just like you did with Clinton winning.