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  1. #161
    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    His actions there were approved by majority of population though.
    Not that I believe any statistics conducted in Putin's Russia, but if that were true, Russians are starting to figure out that Putin was full of shit the whole time and all his cunning plans have just gotten them more fucked than ever.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tojara View Post
    Look Batman really isn't an accurate source by any means
    Quote Originally Posted by Hooked View Post
    It is a fact, not just something I made up.

  2. #162
    Quote Originally Posted by Mormolyce View Post
    Not that I believe any statistics conducted in Putin's Russia, but if that were true, Russians are starting to figure out that Putin was full of shit the whole time and all his cunning plans have just gotten them more fucked than ever.
    One opportunity closes, another opportunity opens.

    West is far from being "indispensable".

  3. #163
    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    One opportunity closes, another opportunity opens.

    West is far from being "indispensable".
    This is a nice way of saying "I hope we're not screwed".

    Spoiler: you are, because when China sees Russia, it sees an all you can eat buffet.

    Remember, the biggest loser of the Belt-Road initiative is Russia.

  4. #164
    Quote Originally Posted by Skroe View Post
    This is a nice way of saying "I hope we're not screwed".
    So what if we are? Sometimes you have to make a gamble; and sometimes it doesn't pay off.

    Wheel is still spinning though.

    Spoiler: you are, because when China sees Russia, it sees an all you can eat buffet.
    And it sees that you look at both like that too.

    Remember, the biggest loser of the Belt-Road initiative is Russia.
    We got their belt-road going through Russia as well, so you got to be more specific where do you think we'll be "biggest loser".

    There is also the matter of Arctic Passage being good option for Chinese trade route.

  5. #165
    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    So what if we are? Sometimes you have to make a gamble; and sometimes it doesn't pay off.

    Wheel is still spinning though.
    It's a terrible gamble.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    And it sees that you look at both like that too.
    No. Quite the contrary. China sees in America something it desperately wants to take on head to head, but isn't quite sure it can win. The United States is the only country in the world China sees as a legitimate peer, and China is the only country in the world the United States calls a would-be rival (with Russia, it mostly uses adversary or competitor).

    The geopolitical contest of the 21st century is the struggle between the US and China for dominance of the global system. The EU, Russia and everybody else, should they exist through the century in one form or another, will be subject to the waves from that titanic struggle.





    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    We got their belt-road going through Russia as well, so you got to be more specific where do you think we'll be "biggest loser".
    No. You got a little bit of the tail end going through Moscow. The rest goes around Russia (and with good reason).

    You're the biggest loser because if the One-Belt Road actually works to cement China's geopolitical influence (as is its intent), it'll bring the countries along Russia's soft underbelly firmly into China's sphere. Look at that map. Except for Turkey, the Countries within the Eurasian center that the road goes through are mostly countries that have had close relations with Russia (in one form or another) and, at best, transactional relations with America.

    America's concerns with the One-Belt Road are more along the lines of a matter of high-level principle (a hegemonic power in Eurasia is a security threat to us and snuffing one out is historic Grand Strategy), and along the coast of the Indo-Pacific region. Or to put it another way, the US is concerned about trade routes and freedom of navigation and about an abstract "hegemonic power" arising, whereas for dozens of countries Russia would move from being the primary partner, to somewhere behind China

    Like imagine if that road went deeper into Kazakhstan, through the Caspian Sea, and into Georgia. What a disaster for Russia that would be.

    And that's why Russia is the biggest loser. For its part, Russia knows this. Your government has been trying to push back against the latest infringement on its borderlands. But it's ability to push back is much more limited than the US-Allied response.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    There is also the matter of Arctic Passage being good option for Chinese trade route.
    It'll never do the volume of the traditional routes. Even when its opened seasonally, it'll require ships with entirely different building standards. You just can't take any old cargo ship above the Article Circle, even in summer.

  6. #166
    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    One opportunity closes, another opportunity opens.
    How have "opportunities" worked out for Russia in the last century or so?
    Quote Originally Posted by Tojara View Post
    Look Batman really isn't an accurate source by any means
    Quote Originally Posted by Hooked View Post
    It is a fact, not just something I made up.

  7. #167
    Quote Originally Posted by Mormolyce View Post
    How have "opportunities" worked out for Russia in the last century or so?
    Quite decently - we managed to win WW2, got permanent seat in UN Security Council, and built up space, nuclear and other industry from 90% agrarian population start.

    Only started lagging behind "West" in growth in 70s.

    Our current position is still better then 2/3 of the world in GDP PPP per capita, while our nominal GDP fluctuates around top 10-top 15.

    That isn't bad position to be at all.

  8. #168
    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    Our current position is still better then 2/3 of the world in GDP PPP per capita, while our nominal GDP fluctuates around top 10-top 15.
    Below Trinidad and Tobago.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tojara View Post
    Look Batman really isn't an accurate source by any means
    Quote Originally Posted by Hooked View Post
    It is a fact, not just something I made up.

  9. #169
    Quote Originally Posted by Skroe View Post
    It's a terrible gamble.
    Difference is only between accepting slow strangulation and fighting it.

    Obviously the ones doing the strangling would tell "don't resist, it's for your own good".

    No. Quite the contrary. China sees in America something it desperately wants to take on head to head, but isn't quite sure it can win. The United States is the only country in the world China sees as a legitimate peer, and China is the only country in the world the United States calls a would-be rival (with Russia, it mostly uses adversary or competitor).
    Show what got you convinced in that.

    Competitor where exactly?

    You're the biggest loser because if the One-Belt Road actually works to cement China's geopolitical influence (as is its intent), it'll bring the countries along Russia's soft underbelly firmly into China's sphere. Look at that map. Except for Turkey, the Countries within the Eurasian center that the road goes through are mostly countries that have had close relations with Russia (in one form or another) and, at best, transactional relations with America.
    Central Asian ones? They are our "Mexico" - mostly source of cheap labour. We don't need much more from them.

    Like imagine if that road went deeper into Kazakhstan, through the Caspian Sea, and into Georgia. What a disaster for Russia that would be.
    Why exactly? We're increasing our trade with China as well.

    It'll never do the volume of the traditional routes. Even when its opened seasonally, it'll require ships with entirely different building standards. You just can't take any old cargo ship above the Article Circle, even in summer.
    Not "entirely different", just "ice-class".

    We had ships going through several times already - Russian LNG tanker in 2017 (with integrated icebreaker tech - here is project history and specs) and Maersk cargo ship trial this year.

    Even if noone else will build ships to navigate it, we can build them ourselves. Shaving two weeks is quite a lot, and with global warming situation should only get better with time.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Mormolyce View Post
    Below Trinidad and Tobago.
    Yes, below small countries riding gas or oil riches. A bit too big for that.
    Last edited by Shalcker; 2018-12-12 at 03:04 PM.

  10. #170
    Deleted
    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    Why exactly?
    Because the Chinese are attempting to steal your sphere of influence, the Central Asian nations, and bring them into the Chinese sphere of influence. Quite simple.

  11. #171
    Quote Originally Posted by Prabog View Post
    Because the Chinese are attempting to steal your sphere of influence, the Central Asian nations, and bring them into the Chinese sphere of influence. Quite simple.
    I wish them luck with local corruption, tribalism, bloody uprisings and wars (both civil and between them).

    Integrating them into Chinese sphere isn't going to be easy.

  12. #172
    Deleted
    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    I wish them luck with local corruption, tribalism, bloody uprisings and wars (both civil and between them).

    Integrating them into Chinese sphere isn't going to be easy.
    It will take time, money and will. The Chinese have all three, and then they shall be at your soft underbelly. Everything east of Urals is then compromised and threatened by Chinese presence in Central Asian nations.

    You seem rather reluctant to understand the Chinese ambitions.

  13. #173
    Quote Originally Posted by Prabog View Post
    It will take time, money and will. The Chinese have all three, and then they shall be at your soft underbelly. Everything east of Urals is then compromised and threatened by Chinese presence in Central Asian nations.

    You seem rather reluctant to understand the Chinese ambitions.
    I understand Chinese ambitions but we really cannot afford to properly integrate Central Asian republics again.

    They just don't have enough of we really need for that to be worth it. They would be dead weight.

    And our Far East is more vulnerable anyway then Central Asian adjacent territories (and far more legitimate claim for Chinese).

    Our expansion vector at the moment is Middle East (making real Oil cartel between all major producers can hold Chinese ambitions in check) and Africa (Libya, Egypt, CAR).

  14. #174
    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    Yes, below small countries riding gas or oil riches. A bit too big for that.
    Your optimism is commendable LOL.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tojara View Post
    Look Batman really isn't an accurate source by any means
    Quote Originally Posted by Hooked View Post
    It is a fact, not just something I made up.

  15. #175
    Quote Originally Posted by Mormolyce View Post
    Your optimism is commendable LOL.
    Reality is that Russia is doing pretty well.

    Not "best in the world", but quite decently. And all that while being world second in plenty of areas (like immigration or military).

    Arrangements that allowed Western world to get their place cannot be repeated, and Western powers are quite wary of expanding them to those who can actually hold some weight once in the system.

    So, got to stop dreaming "joining West" (and "solving all problems" with that) and just slowly get better without them.
    Last edited by Shalcker; 2018-12-13 at 11:37 AM.

  16. #176
    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    Reality is that Russia is doing pretty well.

    Not "best in the world", but quite decently. And all that while being world second in plenty of areas (like immigration or military).

    Arrangements that allowed Western world to get their place cannot be repeated, and Western powers are quite wary of expanding them to those who can actually hold some weight once in the system.

    So, got to stop dreaming "joining West" (and "solving all problems" with that) and just slowly get better without them.
    Your economy has been stagnant if not declining since 2014. Hmm, what happened in 2014 again? Oh yes, Crimea.

    Almost as if the sanctions are crippling you, just like the thread says.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tojara View Post
    Look Batman really isn't an accurate source by any means
    Quote Originally Posted by Hooked View Post
    It is a fact, not just something I made up.

  17. #177
    Quote Originally Posted by Mormolyce View Post
    Your economy has been stagnant if not declining since 2014. Hmm, what happened in 2014 again? Oh yes, Crimea.
    It was predicted to be dropping in growth due to capital under-investment in 2013, without any sanctions and oil shocks.

    Almost as if the sanctions are crippling you, just like the thread says.
    It is almost like you like to get full credit where you actually contributed very little.

  18. #178
    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    It was predicted to be dropping in growth due to capital under-investment in 2013, without any sanctions and oil shocks.

    It is almost like you like to get full credit where you actually contributed very little.
    Was it predicted to continue for 5+ years? LOL.

    Your mental gymnastics should try out for the Olympics.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tojara View Post
    Look Batman really isn't an accurate source by any means
    Quote Originally Posted by Hooked View Post
    It is a fact, not just something I made up.

  19. #179
    Quote Originally Posted by Mormolyce View Post
    Was it predicted to continue for 5+ years? LOL.
    We are already past recession and on robust path of modest growth - barring global financial crises.

    And we're best positioned to survive global financial crisis as well.

  20. #180
    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    We are already past recession and on robust path of modest growth - barring global financial crises.

    And we're best positioned to survive global financial crisis as well.
    Still not even back to 2014 levels.


    https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp-per-capita-ppp

    Which, again, is behind Trinidad and Tobago.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tojara View Post
    Look Batman really isn't an accurate source by any means
    Quote Originally Posted by Hooked View Post
    It is a fact, not just something I made up.

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