Because of its thin atmosphere the dust storms on Mars are actually very mild. Similar to the temperature of the corona of the sun, which is measured in millions of the degrees (regardless of what scale you are using), but if you actually put your hand in that part it'd freeze, because the density of the plasma is so low. The only real problem with the dust storms is what has been mentioned a few times, the dust. Opportunity and Spirit were not meant to last more than three months, so there wasn't any good feature put in place to clean their solar panels. If Opportunity wasn't mobile it would have been buried underneath the dirt by now. The fact that it lasted as long as it did is kind of evidence of how easy it would be to maintain a habitat on Mars if you built it with the intent of long term functionality.
What are you willing to sacrifice?
I'm a bit more pessimistic with my guess of somewhere between 2035-2050.
And yeah, we don't want to have all our eggs in one basket.
I read somewhere that theres no way for Curiosity to reach Opportunity even if they wanted to ignore the risks involved. Its already crippled a bit. But its amazing that Opportunity lasted this long considering its twin died a long time ago.
The biggest hurdles to a manned mission to Mars is logistics and returning home (so more logistics). A craft going to Mars will probably be built/assembled in space. Thats not going to happen until the next gen of heavy launchers are operational, even then you'd wanted a replacement for the ISS as well. If we can figure out how to get the necessary supplies into orbit the the actual transist vehicle shouldn't be hard to design/implement.
The next hhurdle would be how to get make sure the astronauts can survive the journey. We're used to shooting smaller craft across the solar system that don't have biology as a weakness. Who cares if they exposed to raditation as long as their instruments still work, who cares if they get a couple of dents and scrapes, who cares if the ride turbulaent. Humans need a habitatal environment that can protect them from cosmic radiation as well as their own boredom.
Landing and getting humans off of Mars is a huge problem as well. We can't just drop people in airbag or pull of the crazy skycrane manuever like with current gen missions. Not when people are involved. None of current methods of landing humans would work due to Mars' lack of a robust atmosphere.
I think the next 10 years will be figuring out the ground work to land on Mars, assuming we finally move past LEO.
Resident Cosplay Progressive
It exceeded its expected life by 60X. One of the greatest successes for NASA ever. It deserves its rest, and eventual tourist attraction status!
Mission that was planned to last 90 days ended up lasting close to 15 years. That's definitely a GG.
Random thought: I wonder if there will be anything left of these abandoned rovers and landers by the time we actually get humans on Mars? Especially some of the really old stuff like the Viking landers. It'd be pretty awesome to bring one back and put it in a museum or something.
The radiation is more the issue. Pretty much anyone that goes on the current manned mission with current technology is going to walk away from it with like a big increased chance of cancer because of exposure and time combined. Some people spend a lot of time in the space station for example but that is still within a level of strength of the Earth's magnetic field that protects them (even though its still a much higher dose than you get on Earth from the Sun). Between Earth and Mars you will be exposed to much higher levels. On Mars, still very high levels as well. It would pretty much be a half year of being exposed to 100s of xrays an hour if the sun is being a good boy. Worse if it spits a bit in your direction. From some show I saw on the Discovery channel they think they could cut that in half with current radiation shielding tech but they either weight a lot (lead for example) or use a lot of power (making a powerful magnetic field). But even with BOTH it would be something like 25-30 xrays an hour instead of the 100 (still really bad).
People can live in space for the time being asked with current speeds. Of course faster is better. But shielding is the big one. Figure out how to keep the rads out and Mars isn't that hard.
In my headcanon, it's not dead.
It's just gone feral.
Non-discipline 2006-2019, not supporting the company any longer. Also: fails.
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Now you see it. Now you don't.
But was where Dalaran?
Unreason and anti-intellectualism abominate thought. Thinking implies disagreement; and disagreement implies nonconformity; and nonconformity implies heresy; and heresy implies disloyalty — so, obviously, thinking must be stopped. But shouting is not a substitute for thinking and reason is not the subversion but the salvation of freedom. - Adlai Stevenson