The Brexit aftermath thread

[Slant]

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-b...rce=reddit.com

worth noting

No it is not. Because nobody gives a toss what the uk patliament allows them to do. It is the eu that has to give them permission. Who shat stupidity into british politicians brains? Jeez..

[slathworpe]

No it is not. Because nobody gives a toss what the uk patliament allows them to do. It is the eu that has to give them permission. Who shat stupidity into british politicians brains? Jeez..

From the article: Europe’s financial markets regulator has given UK-based derivatives clearing houses permission to continue serving EU clients in the event of a no-deal Brexit - a major boost to London’s battle to remain the central market for euro clearing.

I know, I'm trolling you by correcting obvious errors . Ban me for unfairly reading things properly....

[Omega10]

From the article: Europe’s financial markets regulator has given UK-based derivatives clearing houses permission to continue serving EU clients in the event of a no-deal Brexit - a major boost to London’s battle to remain the central market for euro clearing.

I know, I'm trolling you by correcting obvious errors . Ban me for unfairly reading things properly....

So basically he was correct, the EU DID have to provide the permission, and at least for now, the EU has given that permission. It is a good sign for Britain that here is a case of the EU making accommodations to Britain. I suspect it will be a hit and miss kind of thing - in some cases the EU will decide that Britain can keep certain segments of the market, in other cases no.

But you both seem to agree that it is the EU that makes the decision.

March 29 is 39 days away, a bit more than 5 weeks. Tick Tock.

[Floopa]

No it is not. Because nobody gives a toss what the uk patliament allows them to do. It is the eu that has to give them permission. Who shat stupidity into british politicians brains? Jeez..

did u read the article? lol

[Gibblewink]

If I remember correctly from the December paper it is a temporary permission just to avoid businesses getting caught in limbo and not really a permanent solution for London.

[Zelk]

so basically a bunch of blue labour resign that dont want an anti neoliberal party. Someone remind me about signitures and by-elections? Quite suprised they are actuslly going to give up thier meal tickets

they only trigger a by-election if they change to another party I think, right now they've just started a company which seems to be named after UKIP.

[Omega10]

did u read the article? lol

This is the first paragraph:

Europe’s financial markets regulator has given UK-based derivatives clearing houses permission to continue serving EU clients in the event of a no-deal Brexit - a major boost to London’s battle to remain the central market for euro clearing.

This seems to support the narrative that Slant and Slathworpe and others were discussing. The permission was given by the EU, which was central to what everyone has been discussing.

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If I remember correctly from the December paper it is a temporary permission just to avoid businesses getting caught in limbo and not really a permanent solution for London.

This is later on in the article:

The move, which had been expected after a draft decision in December, follows efforts by EU rival Deutsche Boerse to woo clients to its clearing house, Eurex.

This could very well be a temporary permission granted until the EU is ready to take over this business. At this point, though, the EU seems content to keep all of its options open.

[Omega10]

Yup. The EU is just not ready and won't risk it. For now it will let the UK clearing houses work. And over the next few years the ECB will pass new regulations that will increasingly make it harder while Frankfurt keeps recruiting. The clients will only move at a trickle but that is by design; they can only really be handled if they shift slowly. A switch of Euro clearing from London to Frankfurt should take a decade. Keep in mind that the ECB wanted to do this years before Brexit and the only reason they could not was that the ECJ stood by the UK over the argument that further regulations would be against fairness for Single Market members. The UK will no longer be a Single Market member.

This is the problem with the media sensationalising everything. While there will be small disasters due to legal issues on Brexit day, the actual shifts will happen slowly so that the market can adjust.

Damn. It sounds like the EU is planning this out very carefully.

This implies that, for Britain, it will be less of a single event train wreck explosion on March 29, and more of a long ongoing decline for Britain as the EU slowly takes over businesses that have been in Britain for years, but now can be done in EU territory.

It is actually kind of nice hearing something that makes sense and is consistent with the way humans and big organizations actually work.

[Dizzeeyooo]

Japanese car maker Honda is drawing up plans to close its manufacturing plant in Swindon

#Takingbackcontrol of 3,500 jobs

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Damn. It sounds like the EU is planning this out very carefully.
This implies that, for Britain, it will be less of a single event train wreck explosion on March 29, and more of a long ongoing decline for Britain as the EU slowly takes over businesses that have been in Britain for years, but now can be done in EU territory.

It is actually kind of nice hearing something that makes sense and is consistent with the way humans and big organizations actually work.

This article gives a decent overview of what a long on-going decline looks like, although its view of the immediate effects is likely to be optimistic.

[Dizzeeyooo]

so basically a bunch of blue labour resign that dont want an anti neoliberal party. Someone remind me about signitures and by-elections? Quite suprised they are actuslly going to give up thier meal tickets

these labour leavers are essentially our Howard Schultz types.

Presumably you had similar issues with Frank Field when he quit the Labour party?

[Omega10]

#Takingbackcontrol of 3,500 jobs

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This article gives a decent overview of what a long on-going decline looks like, although its view of the immediate effects is likely to be optimistic.

The article is very chilling as it is. I suspect that the bolded part might be correct.

[Beazy]

I watched the John Oliver piece on Brexit last night. How accurate was it?

[Acidbaron]

#Takingbackcontrol of 3,500 jobs

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This article gives a decent overview of what a long on-going decline looks like, although its view of the immediate effects is likely to be optimistic.

The best part are the comments how they blame this on everything but the brexit, at least those that voted for it.

It's the EU stance on diesel models, ignoring the fact that this counts for all EU manufacturing plants. Yet those aren't being closed down but restructured and reformed to carry other models.

The EU is racist against the UK, so it's making it unfair and harder for UK plants to stay open. Despite the UK being the one member state that had the most special advantages. That they voted for the brexit and that the brexit vote was for many racially motivated.

It's the EU loan to ford in turkey, despite the loan being handed out before their plant closure, despite the EU giving money to ford UK. Despite Ford pretty much relocating all their plants from west europe to elsewhere.


But i get it the last one wants to do is admit they fucked themselves over real good.

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I watched the John Oliver piece on Brexit last night. How accurate was it?

Fairly accurate.

[Omega10]

I watched the John Oliver piece on Brexit last night. How accurate was it?

I watched it just a few hours ago. It was less chilling than the article that Dizzeeyooo linked, but the combination of the article and the John Oliver piece on Brexit is quite a powerful 1-2 knockout punch.

[Kallisto]

so basically a bunch of blue labour resign that dont want an anti neoliberal party. Someone remind me about signitures and by-elections? Quite suprised they are actuslly going to give up thier meal tickets

Yes, much better to have a Maoist who is going full communist in his "Bow or leave." view towards Labour MPs and members is so much better >>. Corbynistas are the worst thing to happen to the Labour Party.

[Slant]

did u read the article? lol

I skimmed the article and thought they were talking about the House of Commons. My mistake. This doesn't include much, however. Certainly it's not saving the whole financial services sector, especially because it's addressing three specific companies. So, this is still not really noteworthy. And we'll see how it pans out.

[LeGin Tufnel]

Strangely, as a centrist, I don’t feel any pleasure in hearing that Chuka and co. have walked out. It’s just more division isn’t it? I kind of wished they’d stayed to voice their dissent within Labour. Unless the split becomes more pronounced and takes in centrists from other parties, this is just going to give the Tories free reign.

In the words of an “unknown voice” hot mic’d:

https://www.theguardian.com/media/20...plit-broadcast

More generally speaking there's a lot of stories where Brexit might be a factor or might not in something bad happening, and the story becomes a one-sided "Brexit is bad" story.

Brexit is not likely to yield especially massive hits to GDP. Capitalism is incredibly good at adaptation even if the politicians are incompetent. I don't think it is a good idea for remainers to focus on economic damage because that leaves them open to charges of scaremongering from the right if that doesn't materialize. I would expect a short recession, no more.

Sorry - I ran out of time last night and have been busy today. Sure - look, it comes down to who you choose to believe doesn’t it? My basic point is that I don’t think those Guardian articles I linked can be described ‘sensationalistic’, or whatever the word is, and I’d still choose to refer to them over and above alternative, non-mainstream sources. The fact is that you’re in the minority if you believe there will be a short recession. But I accept it’s as Huehuecoytl said above: no-one can be entirely sure what the outcome will be.

In relation to what has happened since the referendum:

https://www.ft.com/content/cf51e840-...f-99f383b09ff9

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/03/brex...exit-date.html

So - not as bad as Project Fear predicted but negative overall.

Loads more if you look. Again, it depends on who you choose to believe, doesn’t it?

And, at the end of the day, what I care most about (forgive my selfishness) is the personal circumstances of myself and my family. I posted a long time back that uncertainty in my other half’s industry (it was exactly the same in 2008) was at least partly responsible for her being made redundant. Now self-employed but earning less, without job security, no pension etc.

I’m already down because of Brexit so I’m not too interested in opinions suggesting everything’s going to be fine. Sorry about that.

[Acidbaron]

I skimmed the article and thought they were talking about the House of Commons. My mistake. This doesn't include much, however. Certainly it's not saving the whole financial services sector, especially because it's addressing three specific companies. So, this is still not really noteworthy. And we'll see how it pans out.

It's nice of the UK to try to maintain these companies while they slowly but surely move over

[downnola]

these labour leavers are essentially our Howard Schultz types.

You say that like it's worse than being Farrakhan lite. Labour became a shit show when they made "Mr. Hamas" leader.

[slartworp]

Strangely, as a centrist, I don’t feel any pleasure in hearing that Chuka and co. have walked out. It’s just more division isn’t it?

I don't find it strange. You now have two major centre-left parties splitting the vote between them, not to mention the nationalist parties which are generally centre-left also and the greens. Going to be very difficult for any of them win any seats at all with that much division.

Not that this is good for Labour either of course.

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You say that like it's worse than being Farrakhan lite. Labour became a shit show when they made "Mr. Hamas" leader.

That stuff is very weak frankly. It is all guilt by association. I've been in the same room as a terrorist, it didn't mean I endorsed terrorism.