SpaceX Dragon 2 Launches... US regains independent manned launch capability!

[PACOX]

I don't care about countries or nations, I only care about the human race and its progress, which is going well so far here.

Really did not say anything about a particular country. NASA is the most advanced space agency by far.

[Ubermensch]

Really did not say anything about a particular country. NASA is the most advanced space agency by far.

Eh, I don't care much about which company does what either. As far as I'm concerned, any progress achieved by any human or group of humans is progress achieved by humanity as a whole.

[cubby]

Great stuff @Skroe - as usual. Thanks for the information and the analysis.

[Skroe]

Actually it did, there was also the option to assist the Russians in re-activating the Buran Space Shuttle program and this was actually discussed at length by US/Russian scientists however it ended up coming to nothing. Which is a shame really as more US/Russian cooperation is always good for the planet, and it would have allowed the US to get back in the game much quicker than waiting for SpaceX to get up to speed.

Been banned, so finally replying to this. This is an extremely inaccurate post.

Immedietly after the destruction of Space Shuttle Columbia in 2003, NASA and Roscosmos briefly discussed what it would take to stand up the Buran orbiter fleet. This was because the International Space Station was less than half constructed (most construction took place after the post-Columbia return to flight) and the entire concept of the ISS was built around the Space Shuttle, with its big payload bay, crew and robotic arm, to build it. It would be much more complex, likely necessitating a complete redesign, to have built it using just unmanned Delta IV Heavys (which didn't fly until a couple years later anyway) and Protons. If the Space Shuttle would never fly again (from the perspective of the first few weeks after Columbia), then the ISS project was over.

These discussions rapidly disintegrated. First of all, the investigation over the spring and summer of 2003 found that the Space Shuttle stack, while suffering a catastrophe, could likely be retrofitted to avoid, or at least minimize a recurrence. And that would be less expensive than restarting the Buran programme, because that is exactly what would happen.

The shuttle Buran had exactly one unmanned orbital flight in 1988. It hadn't flown in 14 years by that point. The Energia rocket that carried it, similarly only flew twice, the last flight of which, was also the only flight of Buran in 1988. It was not in production and there was no industrial base in existence to refabricate a dead rocket.

Furthermore, prior to the Columbia disaster in 2002, a hangar roof collapse destroyed the flown Buran orbit (Orbiter K1).

Before:


After:


[img]http://www.buran.fr/bourane-buran/Photos/094-Destruction%20de%20Bourane%20Energia-Destruction%20of%20Buran%20Energia-end_111.jpg[.img]

In any event the flown orbiter was not flight worthy anymore. Rebooting Buran would have been in effect, a new program, with new orbiters constructed, new facilities. It would have taken years. And it would have been expensive.

Russia did have other Burans in various phases of construction when the program was abandoned. This is them in the mid 2010s.





And keep in mind, these are mostly just air frames. There is little actually inside of them. When the USSR fell, everyone just walked off the job. And that's how Space Shuttles were abandoned in place.


So it "came to nothing" because the idea was farcical one to begin with. Russia did not take care of its Soviet inheritance, and they were not "ready to be flown" in any reasonable amount of time, and in any event, the US wouldn't pay for it.

And frankly as we saw with Dmitri Rogozin's ridiculous "trampoline" comment back in 2014, in the midst of the Crimea crisis, and with Russian Soyuz price gouging, cooperation with Russia is a dead end. It is better to not work with them than to work with them, and Congress should be applauded for legislating the separation of US-Russian space programs. Russia wants to be involved in the Lunar Orbital Platform-Gateway program. They will not be. Their Soyuz rockets can't reach the Moon. Soyuzs capsules can't survive re-entry from a lunar return trajectory. And they have nothing to offer the LOP-G program. It will be an America-European base, built by the SLS, Arianne 6 and SpaceX Falcon 9.

Rogozin suggested we build a trampoline. And we did. The best one in the world. And now Russia is screwed. And now Russia, aka Space-Portugal, is basically screwed.

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Eh, I don't care much about which company does what either. As far as I'm concerned, any progress achieved by any human or group of humans is progress achieved by humanity as a whole.

Rocket and Space technology is among the most sensitive there is because of it's dual use applications. Space Rockets and Ballistic missiles share very similar (sometimes identical) technologies, and almost every country that has ever shot something into space except Japan and the ESA used a ballistic missile as a starting point. The principles and technology relating to manned re-entry vehicles and their guidance systems are close to the types of tech required to make nuclear warhead re-entry vehicles.

Rocket and Space technology is extremely regulated, both nationally and internationally. The leading treaty for this is the Missile Technology Control Regime.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missil...Control_Regime

Europe, for example, cannot launch payloads into Space on behalf of paying customers to countries outside the MTCR, on rocket Europe itself builds, without US approval, because the United States owns the IP to irreplaceable spaceflight technologies.

NASA scientists and engineers are forbidden from coordinating with Chinese counterparts. Chinese foreign students cannot work in certain US labs, including NASA funded ones. And people from outside MTCR countries cannot work in the space launch industry without a waiver from the government. And some countries within it still require a government waiver.

Furthermore every single US-based space launch, regardless of rocket, but be granted a per-launch license by the US, and every launch around the world utilizing US-parts or US intellectual property must be approved by the US.

This is all to protect US strategic advantages (space is our domain) and prevent the spread of ballistic missile technology and know-how.

So no, Space is not for "all of humanity". Most of humanity needs a waiver to even get inside the room.

[Voidwielder]

@Skroe any thoughts on my posts? Thanks.

[mvaliz]

Been banned, so finally replying to this. This is an extremely inaccurate post.
.

Welcome back ^_^

BTW, was looking for a post on your thoughts on the Manafort sentencing in the other thread. I think that was the big thing I was really curious about your take on with that.

[Ubermensch]

Rocket and Space technology is among the most sensitive there is because of it's dual use applications. Space Rockets and Ballistic missiles share very similar (sometimes identical) technologies, and almost every country that has ever shot something into space except Japan and the ESA used a ballistic missile as a starting point. The principles and technology relating to manned re-entry vehicles and their guidance systems are close to the types of tech required to make nuclear warhead re-entry vehicles.

Rocket and Space technology is extremely regulated, both nationally and internationally. The leading treaty for this is the Missile Technology Control Regime.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missil...Control_Regime

Europe, for example, cannot launch payloads into Space on behalf of paying customers to countries outside the MTCR, on rocket Europe itself builds, without US approval, because the United States owns the IP to irreplaceable spaceflight technologies.

NASA scientists and engineers are forbidden from coordinating with Chinese counterparts. Chinese foreign students cannot work in certain US labs, including NASA funded ones. And people from outside MTCR countries cannot work in the space launch industry without a waiver from the government. And some countries within it still require a government waiver.

Furthermore every single US-based space launch, regardless of rocket, but be granted a per-launch license by the US, and every launch around the world utilizing US-parts or US intellectual property must be approved by the US.

This is all to protect US strategic advantages (space is our domain) and prevent the spread of ballistic missile technology and know-how.

So no, Space is not for "all of humanity". Most of humanity needs a waiver to even get inside the room.

I think you misunderstand what I meant by my statement, completely. I only care about the progress humans make as a species, I don't care about their politics, nations or whatever. Please understand that statement in the most literal way possible.

[Skroe]

I think you misunderstand what I meant by my statement, completely. I only care about the progress humans make as a species, I don't care about their politics, nations or whatever. Please understand that statement in the most literal way possible.

What's the point if it is not shared? "Species" is irrelevant in our context, as we are in competition against no other spacefairing species. And as a matter of "wider principle", there is no tangible gain for what amounts to a species-wide Feat of Strength.

This is the real world, not Mass Effect.

[The Stormbringer]

Re-usable rockets are the future, until we can mass manufacture graphene for projects like sky hooks, and even then they could still play a very useful goal.

What's the point if it is not shared? "Species" is irrelevant in our context, as we are in competition against no other spacefairing species. And as a matter of "wider principle", there is no tangible gain for what amounts to a species-wide Feat of Strength.

This is the real world, not Mass Effect.

No, there aren't, but we shouldn't be in competition with ourselves. We should be working together. Cooperation is how we've gotten to where we are in the first place, and it's how we'll advance beyond it.

[Ubermensch]

What's the point if it is not shared? "Species" is irrelevant in our context, as we are in competition against no other spacefairing species. And as a matter of "wider principle", there is no tangible gain for what amounts to a species-wide Feat of Strength.

This is the real world, not Mass Effect.

You still don't understand, I don't care about nations or countries, they're irrelevant as we should be working together as a species. Therefore anything that any human or group of humans have created, belongs to us all as a species. Regardless of whether or not they choose to share it with anyone right now, it belongs to us as a species.

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No, there aren't, but we shouldn't be in competition with ourselves. We should be working together. Cooperation is how we've gotten to where we are in the first place, and it's how we'll advance beyond it.

I tried to explain this to him but I'm afraid he's quite tribalistic in his mindset, there isn't much that can be said to convince him to understand.

[BlackBoss]

US has gained nothing. Space X is a privately owned company. That's like saying Shell and Chevron pump oil out the ground for the US... negative.

[The Stormbringer]

You still don't understand, I don't care about nations or countries, they're irrelevant as we should be working together as a species. Therefore anything that any human or group of humans have created, belongs to us all as a species. Regardless of whether or not they choose to share it with anyone right now, it belongs to us as a species.

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I tried to explain this to him but I'm afraid he's quite tribalistic in his mindset, there isn't much that can be said to convince him to understand.

I will say, however, that competition on a lower level is a good thing. If you've got a problem, and lots of engineers, making them into teams of engineers and having them compete with each other to come up with a solution (with prizes and reputation on the line) then you can usually get better work from them. This is, however, people working towards the same goal. Currently, every nation out there is looking out for themselves, which means all of humanity is separated by hundreds of different goals. There is competition, yes, but without our goals being the same, it's ultimately going to provide far less results, can could wind up with us destroying ourselves.

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US has gained nothing. Space X is a privately owned company. That's like saying Shell and Chevron pump oil out the ground for the US... negative.

Didn't they work with NASA on it, though? It sounds like a joint project.

[Voidwielder]

US has gained nothing. Space X is a privately owned company. That's like saying Shell and Chevron pump oil out the ground for the US... negative.

That's a stupid comment. US gained a lot, as Jim said in the presser, commercializing LEO gives NASA funds to care about things that matter more - Mars, other planetary missions. Shuttle cost 1.5 billion in the last launches (overall), they are literally saving hundreds of millions at this point.

[PACOX]

Re-usable rockets are the future, until we can mass manufacture graphene for projects like sky hooks, and even then they could still play a very useful goal.



No, there aren't, but we shouldn't be in competition with ourselves. We should be working together. Cooperation is how we've gotten to where we are in the first place, and it's how we'll advance beyond it.

The Cold War is how we got to where we are now. Hell, the feud between the US and Russia shaped the ISS and got the US back into human spaceflight a lot sooner than expected. We'd be waiting for the SLS if Russia wasn't overcharging for rides to the ISS.

[Skroe]

You still don't understand, I don't care about nations or countries, they're irrelevant as we should be working together as a species. Therefore anything that any human or group of humans have created, belongs to us all as a species. Regardless of whether or not they choose to share it with anyone right now, it belongs to us as a species.

I entirely understand. You're applying motivations that have a rationale entirely in the basis of science fiction to the real world. They have no applicability here.

-> We're not working together as "a species". The next era of Spaceflight will have far less cooperation than the prior one.

-> There no no net-gain to be working together as a species. Europe, Japan and Canada work with NASA largely in the name of cost sharing and because they have some technology that we don't want to spend money re-implimenting (see: the Orion's Service module, aka the ESA's ATV). Most countries have nothing to bring to the table, and do not stand to either contribute or benefit.

-> Any concept of some kind of "species ownership" is ridiculous. You say "nations and countries are irrelevant". Respectfully, grow up. It is nations and countries tax dollars that pay for this. All of this. I'm as big of science spending by governments as there is (I'm a software engineer and have directly benefited from it over the years). But make no mistake: its essentially any government's hobby because they got money to burn. When budgets are tight, this goes. And that is right because it is more important to keep people in their homes, and healthy, then engage in geology experiments on Mars.

Really all this species talk is making me nauseous. It's the deeply uncomfortable blending of fiction-centric science-worship with the very real and harsh realities of international cooperation, budgeting, engineering, economics and science. The final frontier will be every bit as blood soaked as the last ones. In the real world there is no "great work" to "uplift" our "species" to the next stage of and become *snicker* a Type-0 civilization or some nonsense like that.

[Voidwielder]

Looks like SLS is dead.

[Ubermensch]

I entirely understand. You're applying motivations that have a rationale entirely in the basis of science fiction to the real world. They have no applicability here.

-> We're not working together as "a species". The next era of Spaceflight will have far less cooperation than the prior one.

-> There no no net-gain to be working together as a species. Europe, Japan and Canada work with NASA largely in the name of cost sharing and because they have some technology that we don't want to spend money re-implimenting (see: the Orion's Service module, aka the ESA's ATV). Most countries have nothing to bring to the table, and do not stand to either contribute or benefit.

-> Any concept of some kind of "species ownership" is ridiculous. You say "nations and countries are irrelevant". Respectfully, grow up. It is nations and countries tax dollars that pay for this. All of this. I'm as big of science spending by governments as there is (I'm a software engineer and have directly benefited from it over the years). But make no mistake: its essentially any government's hobby because they got money to burn. When budgets are tight, this goes. And that is right because it is more important to keep people in their homes, and healthy, then engage in geology experiments on Mars.

Really all this species talk is making me nauseous. It's the deeply uncomfortable blending of fiction-centric science-worship with the very real and harsh realities of international cooperation, budgeting, engineering, economics and science. The final frontier will be every bit as blood soaked as the last ones. In the real world there is no "great work" to "uplift" our "species" to the next stage of and become *snicker* a Type-0 civilization or some nonsense like that.

You don't want to understand what I'm saying, you're too tribalistic to understand. As evidenced by your heavily political avatar, signature and the circles you engage in. You're not ready for something like this, clearly nor do you understand what it is that @The Stormbringer and I are trying to say. You're dug in too deep in this tribalistic nonsense, please help yourself and dig yourself out before it's too late.

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I will say, however, that competition on a lower level is a good thing. If you've got a problem, and lots of engineers, making them into teams of engineers and having them compete with each other to come up with a solution (with prizes and reputation on the line) then you can usually get better work from them. This is, however, people working towards the same goal. Currently, every nation out there is looking out for themselves, which means all of humanity is separated by hundreds of different goals. There is competition, yes, but without our goals being the same, it's ultimately going to provide far less results, can could wind up with us destroying ourselves.

Competition was excellent when we were still primates or tribespeople, still living a nomadic/hunter-gatherer lifestyle. Competition isn't necessary now that we're technologically advanced and it's becoming a detriment to our species. Like you said, a technologically advanced society that is competitive is going to produce far less results than what we could if we worked together.

Skroe is tribalistic in nature, it's an "us vs them" world in his mind and if you're not with him, you're against him. I feel sorry for him, he has no idea.

[cubby]

His pie in the sky plans mean exactly fuckall. We've already had supersonic jets which are no longer in service due to the enormous maintenance costs, operating costs, and ticket costs associated with rapid air travel. Rockets will not solve those issues, though they will certainly add additional dangers.

You mean the "pie-in-the-sky" plans he just delivered on? You people who hate just for the sake of hating are adorable. Musk and other privateers who are literally saving U.S. space industry and doing fantastic work, despite people like you, ignorant to the end, with nothing more to offer than basement armchair "thoughts" that have nothing to do with reality.

But please, go on about how "[r]ockets will not solve those issues".

[Voidwielder]

You mean the "pie-in-the-sky" plans he just delivered on? You people who hate just for the sake of hating are adorable. Musk and other privateers who are literally saving U.S. space industry and doing fantastic work, despite people like you, ignorant to the end, with nothing more to offer than basement armchair "thoughts" that have nothing to do with reality.

But please, go on about how "[r]ockets will not solve those issues".

Starship as Earth-to-Earth vehicle will never happen.

[cubby]

US has gained nothing. Space X is a privately owned company. That's like saying Shell and Chevron pump oil out the ground for the US... negative.

Where are they launching from again? Who has to ok every launch? U.S. has almost literally gained everything with this successful Dragon launch. Or did you think the Shuttle was free to launch?

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Been banned, so finally replying to this. This is an extremely inaccurate post.

Welcome back. Interesting info about that other shuttle program.

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Starship as Earth-to-Earth vehicle will never happen.

According to . . . the guy sitting in his basement with no reasonable knowledge or the guy who just solved the United States' manned launched problem?

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You don't want to understand what I'm saying, you're too tribalistic to understand. As evidenced by your heavily political avatar, signature and the circles you engage in. You're not ready for something like this, clearly nor do you understand what it is that @The Stormbringer or I are trying to say. You're dug in too deep in this tribalistic nonsense, please help yourself and dig yourself out before it's too late.

He does - you just don't understand what he's saying about your opinions. I love that you just throw out rhetoric with no information or analysis, like science fiction has anything to do with reality.

Competition was excellent when we were still primates or tribespeople, still living a nomadic/hunter-gatherer lifestyle. Competition isn't necessary now that we're technologically advanced and it's becoming a detriment to our species. Like you said, a technologically advanced society that is competitive is going to produce far less results than what we could if we worked together.

Skroe is tribalistic in nature, it's an "us vs them" world in his mind and if you're not with him, you're against him. I feel sorry for him, he has no idea.

Sadly, you're still sitting in a false reality where you think wanting something means you will get it. People like myself and @Skroe and others don't want it to be an us vs them world, it just is, and we've decided to live in reality, instead of inside the video game you reside.