[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[Pann]

Malthouse comprise has been voted down.

[Skroe]

Scrapping HMS Ocean is absolutely nothing to do with Brexit.

You're missing the point. Maybe intentionally.

The HMS Ocean was scrapped 20 years early, shortly after a major overhaul mind you, so the British Government could save some money on its ongoing operations. Directly, correct, that has nothing to do with Brexit.

The point I'm making is that post-Brexit Britain needs the HMS Ocean, and a lot of things like it, in order to be relevant.

The Uk cannot say on one hand, "we're leaving the EU to be more influential in the world, richer, more security, and we'll only expand our security relationship through NATO and with America", and then on the other hand, scrap the HMS Ocean, among countless other instruments of that policy it has retired early the past seven years.

There would be a logical consistency with Brexit if the "Brexit Policy" was paired with an equal policy of rejuvenating the things that makes the UK independent powerful (i.e. like the power projection provided by the HMS Ocean). But there isn't a soul in the foreign policy world that thinks that is realistically going to happen, especially if the UK faces the projected budget woes.

Or let me put it another way. It is more likely that post-Brexit Britain delays activation of it's F-35Bs, thus forcing the HMS Ocean's nominal successor, the HMS Queen Elisabeth, to ferry around US Marines and their F-35Bs a few months a year, than it is for post-Brexit Britain to say "now that we're out of the EU, we need to redouble our power. Let's buy a third carrier and MORE F-35Bs and buy it quicker".

Or if you want to have a non-military dimension to this. how does post-Brexit Britain plan on being more influential in the world, when its foreign service is a fraction of the size of the one it had before the Iraq War? That is the very heart of Brexit. Just "Brexiting" isn't going to make it magically happen. The UK has to do it. It has to pay for the things that make it influential and powerful on its own, independent of the EU.

And there is no sign the UK is ready to do that.

[Pann]

Hmm,

Laura Kuenssberg
‏
@bbclaurak
MP s inside the voting lobbies report they've seen ministers abstaining - Cabinet ministers ignoring the whip

[ati87]

And seeing as we have nothing else that something else is likely to be May's deal or a variation of it. The Cons are not going to push for a 2nd ref so it is up to Lab to put an amendment before the house (as per their policy) but it looks like Jeremy has returned to his seat on the fence so I am not sure what will happen with that and I honestly don't see anyone in Parliament supporting a motion rescinding A50.

No-deal is still a very real risk.

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Scrapping HMS Ocean is absolutely nothing to do with Brexit.

What would the 2e referendum be about? If you have the same vote again and stay wins the hard-line leave camp wouldn't accept that result.

May has two real options. Call the whole thing off or just call for a new general election and hope that the next winner calls this whole thing off. The first referendum wasn't binding and should have never been called for without having a clear plan on what to do.

if a country wants to leave the EU make sure you have a strong majority support for your plan and push for it as part of your election campaign. Then if you win the election discus between the opposition and your own coalition what's feasible for your country first and then invoke article 50.

May on the other hand just randomly invoked article 50 and only pushed the conversation more to the extreme right. May never tried to win votes from the opposition parties which is frankly stupid when your trying to achieve a long lasting policy change. Obama for example tried to get the GOP aboard when he was pushing for the Affordable Care Act for a good reason, ofc he failed to win over any republicans but he had to try because he knew that when he left office that the Republican party would try to gut his achievements.

[Dizzeeyooo]

That's ask for a short delay for a "managed" no deal right?

That's "request a short extension to plan for no deal, offer to pay for one year transition, go for no deal immediately afterwards" - completely idiotic in every way from the moment it was conceived and something the EU would never, ever agree to.

What would the 2e referendum be about? If you have the same vote again and stay wins the hard-line leave camp wouldn't accept that result

Good for them, who else cares?

[Pann]

The government is in disarray and May's deal could be set to return from dead, again.

[CostinR]

This has nothing to do with Brexit.

It has everything to do with Brexit. @Skroe just highlighted many of the foolish, short-sighted decisions that the UK has taken over the years because it wants to have it both ways: It wants to be a respected world power that stands on it's own but it doesn't have the capability or will to be able to achieve that, not anymore at least.

This is the crux of Brexit, that Britain wants to stand on it's own, but the current situation makes it clear: The UK can't do it, and all the arrogant posturing by British politicians is not going to change that. As I've told my British friends time and time again as they wax poetic about their great Empire: The Empire is gone and Britain as it stands is no longer the most important player in Europe.

[Pann]

That's ask for a short delay for a "managed" no deal right?

This explains it better than I can; https://news.sky.com/story/what-is-t...march-11627852

[Pann]

Nigel is waving his victim card around but he can hardly contain his grin as he says that he thinks that the UK will have to take part in the European election. I guess the career as Trump's friend in the US is not going as well as he'd hoped.

[CostinR]

No, most don't want that. I don't know what friends you have but they are fucking weird.

It's about a certain level of arrogance I've seen on display from a lot British, especially the pro-brexit crowd, because they think Britain is so special.

Well not anymore, and although most of Europe hasn't reached this point yet I'd say good riddance if the UK goes: No one should assume Europe will just wait for Britain to make up their minds.

[Fuiking]

I should copy some comments of Skroe, Slant and Nymrhod, so i can show them to Nexiters. Destroy that argument from those people straight away.

[Pann]

Some high level ministers abstained against May's wishes.

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1105925190435983360

[Skroe]

I care about infant mortality, food banks, public services and the economy.

Couldn't give a fuck about the Royal Navy, their delusions of grandeur, "Britain's place in the world" or idiot American wars. None of those things affect me or the vast majority of voters.

All those things you mentioned are crucially important. No doubt about that.

However giving the UK independence in global affairs (security, economic, political, legal) was a leading motivation for separation from the EU. The Brexiters arged constantly that beyond economic / regulation conflicts with the EU,the UK's clout around the world was greatly lessened by being a part of the EU.

The things that I mentioned are crucially important to that argument.

This is, after all, fundamentally about how the UK handles its external affairs, and right now it has less to offer on that front than ever before. And that will have a direct impact on its ability to service the things you do give a fuck about about.

Look, all I'm saying, is that if the UK is legitimately going to Brexit, then it actually has to mean it and do the things necessary to grow its influence around the world in order to be able to pull off those things that directly, and positively effect the lives the everyday people in the UK. Right now, there is very little confidence it will actually do that. The most likely outcome if the UK Brexits, is just a further decline of all the things I mentioned, in a chipping away as budgets contract, little by little, until it starts to dig into the services you do care about when you can't cut those things you don't anymore.

I just don't want there to be any illusion, and it is one that Captain Brexit or whatever the hell is name is up there seemed to have, that post-Brexit UK is owned or entitled anything by anybody, least of all the US. Obama made it clear in 2016: leave the EU, and the UK goes to the back of the line. With US interests largely focused in Asia-Pacific now, the litteral other side of the planet with the UK has little influence, that stands true, even with Trump as President... Trump who has done nothing to help Brexiters other than tweet a few words, months ago. It's not like May can dangle a new treaty with the US. She can only talk in generalities about things she'd like to do.

The words and the actions by UK on the topic of Brexit is disjointed, and there is no reason to expect that will change, and that only leads, inextricably and ironically, to further British decline and paradoxically, a growth in EU power and influence.

[Vermented]

Not for the UK they are not.

Thanks to Brexit the bond market is stable, EU have caved on derivatives, better than expected fabulous UK GDP figures released yesterday, low unemployment, rising wages, low inflation, unwanted EU immigration coming down. Did you mean euroland?

Germany is in deep doo dah with no or contracting growth, UK no deal tariffs announced today will hit their car exports and will be “absolutely disastrous” for Ireland according to their government and the Greeks have announced that "only" 40% youth unemployment is fantastic...

Yeah you must have meant euroland.

The EU is in recession if not depression and pretty much fucked, we did tell them no deal brexit would hurt them more, they can't say they weren't warned.

You EUfanatics and remainers must be gutted as the EU economy crumbles yet because of brexit the UK economy booms...

Just wait for more of the Brexit dividend to be spread around with Hammonds spring budget statement this afternoon and from himself a remainer....how that will hurt, watch it and weep remainers!

Your vivid imagination will inspire a lot of children all over MMO-C. Thank you!

[Flarelaine]

(2) I know you have this strange nuclear weapons fetish, but you need to understand that the UK's nuclear deterrent is not a popular thing in the actual UK. About a fourth the population supports unilateral nuclear disarmament, and another 30% on top of that wants to cut spending on Trident and replace it with a cheaper deterrent. Only about 35% of the population wants to keep spending on their arsenal as is.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but as I recall, British nuclear deterrence consists of 4 submarines at this point, one (maybe two?) of which is at sea at any given time.

[Skroe]

Those sentiments are confined to an inbred contingent of the upper class, Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees Mogg for example. They are very visible but not representative. The people who actually voted for Brexit were people who don't like immigrants and disaffected working-class people lashing out at a lack of political representation.

But thanks for reminding me some good might come out of this fucking horrible mess.

Warmongering is not popular on either the left or right. The conservatives used to support a big military but lost interest after the Iraq war and have slashed military spending to the bone, this happened long before Brexit. The left have always hated the military.

You focus on Warships and what not. I pulled those out because they are an easy to understand, tangible thing. A retirement of ship like the HMS ocean is something people can wrap their heads around pretty simply.

The gutting of the British foreign service - diplomats - which has also transpired since the early 2000s, is a bit less tangible in that sense. But more severe, because those people did a lot of good work around the world, in advancing British interests, expanding economic opportunities for the UK, and standing for human rights and democracy.

And now most of them are gone.

You may not lament gutting of an "amphibious assault ship". But anyone interested, even remotely, in a more just, verdant and peaceful world should lament that your government told so many of your diplomats to take a hike. And keep in mind, the British Foreign service was once one of the best in the world. It was the benchmark for decades, until the US stood up its own of such a scope after World War II, largely modeled on the UKs.

What is post-Brexit UK going to logically need, to make sure those working class people aren't taken to the cleaners by Chinese business or American financiers? A large, dynamic, enthusiastic and professional foreign service.

Does the UK have one? Has a plan been published to build one over the next 3-5 years?

No.

It's more likely Her Majesty's Diplomatic Service gets another round of savage cuts and Britain shows up in even less rooms around the world, where decisions that effect its people are made.

[Vermented]

The EU has been more than patient... and more than patient than it should have been... in my view. Not to overly state the obvious, but the UK is "just" 65 million people while the post-Brexit EU will have about 450 million people to defend from the UK being utterly incapable of pulling this thing off.

The EU is doing exactly what could be expected from the EU. It is steadily shoveling brexit towards the abyss slowly enough to give many brexiteers the opportunity to jump ship. It's just all bout trying to keep the UK on board, while maintaining stability across the continent.

[Skroe]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but as I recall, British nuclear deterrence consists of 4 submarines at this point, one (maybe two?) of which is at sea at any given time.

I really don't want to turn this thread into one of those, but just for the sake of replying, correct, and it's one, sometimes. It used to be year round. Now its once a year and when not on patrol it is able to fire while at port.

The only reason they don't do it like they did 10 years ago is because deployed anything costs money.

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The EU is doing exactly what could be expected from the EU. It is steadily shoveling brexit towards the abyss slowly enough to give many brexiteers the opportunity to jump ship. It's just all bout trying to keep the UK on board, while maintaining stability across the continent.

Well, I hope it works. The UK has not deserved the EU's patience on this one bit. Theresa May and her carnival of horros give representative democracy a bad name at a time it needs a good name.

[Pann]

Now let's see if she dares sack them

One, Sarah Newton, has already resigned and there are unconfirmed rumours of more going tonight.

[Pann]

Apparently May is saying that she will only ask for a short extension if MPs back her deal! Fucking hell!

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1105930449879265280