[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[Kallisto]

I don't like May and agree she doesn't listen but I'm left feeling what else could she do? I, also, agree that the deal is crap but, again, what else could she do? It's all well and good saying I don't like it but unless there is an alternative where we will end up is worse.

It seems to me that the majority of parliament has been happy to snipe from the sidelines but when the time comes to offer a solution, they snipe some more.

She could call Corbyn's bluff and see if his idea goes through parliament (even if the EU says no), she could call for the people's vote, she could call on parliament to basically reverse Article 50. Hell she can tell the ERG to fuck off out of the conservative party and call a general election, watch as other conservatives take their place instead.

Her deal is dead. She is officially the worst prime minister to have held office post WW2 if we go by how many times the PM has lost in parliament (41 and counting) with 2 of the biggest 4 defeats. She had a 3 line whip that was defied by her own ministers and yet somehow hasn't fired them which means her credibility is gone, she's lost control of her party. She's the lamest of Lame ducks, more so than the last few years of Brown. She holds no authority over the commons.

(Maybe alternative is someone sneak into the palace and remind Elizabeth that technically she has powers that could be used in an emergancy that never really were got rid of in law /s)

[Kronik85]

That's fine. I'm looking forward to dangling the heroic "Battle of Germany" over your head for decades, if not possibly centuries as the sole thing that defeated you in the end while the rest of the world facepalms and says "Yeah... that and the rest of the world bombing the shit out of them..."

Well...I have no idea how to deal with that really. I guess I just kind of accept that the Future Fascist Empire did some really terrible things and we should maybe educate our children so that they do better and don't repeat the horrible mistakes we made?

Also the Queen Kathrine was the best Droneship of WWIII. Fight me.

[Slant]

Well...I have no idea how to deal with that really. I guess I just kind of accept that the Future Fascist Empire did some really terrible things and we should maybe educate our children so that they do better and don't repeat the horrible mistakes we made?

Also the Queen Kathrine was the best Droneship of WWIII. Fight me.

Nah, we'll let Russia do the fighting. And as a reward, we'll give them England. Wales and Scotland will be independent countries and Northern Ireland will become a isolated island of itself, surrounded by the sea and... a wall. Naturally. 40 years onwards the world will celebrate as NI is finally reunited, ending that discussion once and for all. Sinn Fein will continue to suffer a meaningless existance as the once-important party that nobody gives a shit about because they never learned how to do actual policy. :P

[Fuiking]

"Next Exiters" - people that think a super successful no deal Brexit will lead to multiple other EU countries also choosing to leave the EU.

Actually Nexit refers to Netherlands Exit. Which is economic suicide, 20million people vs the world?

[Xarkan]

Actually Nexit refers to Netherlands Exit. Which is economic suicide, 20million people vs the world?

There were other groupings in the EU hoping for a good brexit so they could use it for their own exit campaign

[Corvus]

As an Australian, I'm glad that finally we have another parliament that can finally make ours look partially sane. The last decade in Australian politics has been an embarrassment from all sides of politics but we can at last point out that there is another one doing even worse than ours.

From reporting over here, it sounds like the Conservatives are tearing themselves in two and it isn't like Labour is doing much better as the majority of MPs would rather get rid of Corbyn but they can't and everyone is just playing politics and point scoring with the current debacle.

The EU have said that there is going to be no further extensions or negotiations, correct? Is there even a chance that they would reconsider or is that it?

If so, there would be no time for another election or referendum given how short a period of time is left, which leaves only two options, either a hard brexit or cancelling A50. Is that it?

Its going to be a very bumpy ride over the net couple of weeks if that is the case.

[Northern Goblin]

So long as the Irish border and the Good Friday agreement exists, no deal is a dead start. You'll see an 11th hour revoke of A50 before you see no deal.

[Crispin]

As an Australian, I'm glad that finally we have another parliament that can finally make ours look partially sane. The last decade in Australian politics has been an embarrassment from all sides of politics but we can at last point out that there is another one doing even worse than ours.

From reporting over here, it sounds like the Conservatives are tearing themselves in two and it isn't like Labour is doing much better as the majority of MPs would rather get rid of Corbyn but they can't and everyone is just playing politics and point scoring with the current debacle.

The EU have said that there is going to be no further extensions or negotiations, correct? Is there even a chance that they would reconsider or is that it?

If so, there would be no time for another election or referendum given how short a period of time is left, which leaves only two options, either a hard brexit or cancelling A50. Is that it?

Its going to be a very bumpy ride over the net couple of weeks if that is the case.

For the EU to give a short extension, they’ll need a solid plan for what the Brit’s will do. Sadly solid plans aren’t their strong side, and May have lost all credibility. Hard brexit or revoking is probably where it’s at, one could speculate that this was the plan all along.

Currently all EU news is brexit at this point, there’s 27 other eu countries who are sick and tired of the UK acting like the crazy teenage girl in the house, and wants to focus on the EU parliament elections, and not another short version of “will May fuck it up again?”

[Corvus]

An 11th hour revoke seems to be a minefield all of its own.

So basically the current parliament has spent two and a half years destabilising the UK economy and destroying what credibility they had left on both sides all for nothing. There will be a lot of very angry voters out there in both camps. The next GE will be interesting to watch. From a very safe distance.

[Northern Goblin]

An 11th hour revoke seems to be a minefield all of its own.

So basically the current parliament has spent two and a half years destabilising the UK economy and destroying what credibility they had left on both sides all for nothing. There will be a lot of very angry voters out there in both camps. The next GE will be interesting to watch. From a very safe distance.

There isn't a good ending to this in any scenario, but there are degrees of how crap a bad ending we can have. No deal is the ultimate bad ending for this, and if we reach the 11th hour, any option will be open to prevent it.

We can't have the Good Friday agreement broken, that is a risk to the UK that is simply not acceptable.

[Corvus]

Sounds like a complete disaster no matter what happens.

From reporting over here, neither main party sounds like they are particularly sane any more. Is there any indication how all of this is going to impact the next GE? Rise of populists given they are all the rage at the moment elsewhere, the emergence of a slightly more sane third party or just more of the same insanity?

[Flarelaine]

So long as the Irish border and the Good Friday agreement exists, no deal is a dead start. You'll see an 11th hour revoke of A50 before you see no deal.

I wish.

I have a bottle of 18-year old Glenlivet somewhere, I'll break it open if you are right.

[Twdft]

We can't have the Good Friday agreement broken, that is a risk to the UK that is simply not acceptable.

What I am seeing from Parliament they don't really give a fuck if it's broken? Fighting the "backstop" tooth and nails, the very thing that guarantees the Good Friday Agreement. But also not coming up with specific alternatives to it.

[Shalcker]

The Uk cannot say on one hand, "we're leaving the EU to be more influential in the world, richer, more security, and we'll only expand our security relationship through NATO and with America", and then on the other hand, scrap the HMS Ocean, among countless other instruments of that policy it has retired early the past seven years.

There would be a logical consistency with Brexit if the "Brexit Policy" was paired with an equal policy of rejuvenating the things that makes the UK independent powerful (i.e. like the power projection provided by the HMS Ocean). But there isn't a soul in the foreign policy world that thinks that is realistically going to happen, especially if the UK faces the projected budget woes.
...
Or if you want to have a non-military dimension to this. how does post-Brexit Britain plan on being more influential in the world, when its foreign service is a fraction of the size of the one it had before the Iraq War? That is the very heart of Brexit. Just "Brexiting" isn't going to make it magically happen. The UK has to do it. It has to pay for the things that make it influential and powerful on its own, independent of the EU.

And there is no sign the UK is ready to do that.

Isn't it chicken and the egg problem?

Britain only needs those capabilities while independent; conversely, it can only build them up (slowly) while being independent as well - because the only way to get political will to do that is by getting pressured into it.

They don't need that power while everything is perfectly fine as is.

"Politicians with a spine" that could make important snap decisions then resign as proper are results of "overpressured" Cold War, and are slowly dying out.

[Shalcker]

There is absolutely nothing to stop them from building them as part of the EU.

That's like "there is absolutely nothing that is stopping Russia from building ten thousands of nuclear missiles like it had in USSR days"... sure, it's technically possible if you devote entire country to the effort - but why would you do that?

They had them before they joined the EU, they kept them for most of their time within the EU and then they decided to squander them. Make an effort, this argument is worth zero turnips.

They squandered it because they didn't need it. Because it is actually expensive to maintain.

They can build it up again when they have no other option and no sooner.

[Pann]

General elections mean people can change their mind every 5 years about who should govern them, I see no problem changing your mind after 2 1/2 years of the shitshow we all witness.

That said, I don't think remain would even win in a new referendum. If the people actually changed their mind about it, there would be mass demonstrations expressing this. News of such have not reached me here in germany.

To be honest I am not a fan of holding a second referendum but I am increasingly thinking that it is the only way forward.

[Shalcker]

But they did need it.
A strong military gave them the ear of the US and preferential treatment.

They still had it for quite a while though. Probably still do, it's a long process.

Russia is World #2 military power, does it gets preferential treatment? Maybe in a negative way.

UK oscillates between #6 and #8 as it is quite close to South Korea and Japan, both non-NATO; slightly below France which takes #5.

A strong foreign corps gave them the ability to act as a mediator worldwide; something desperately out of a second tier power with only France essentially left to play that role (and they have too much baggage for it).

Why continue to act independently when most major things go on EU level anyway?

What can they actually substantially offer on their own while being part of EU? Just work of their companies?

At least French still have remnants of their African colonial empire to manage.

If anything they also needed it to have a stronger voice in the EU. One of the main complaints of Brexit is that Germany is dominating the EU; if it is doing so to any extent it is because Germans actively seek roles in the commission (and largely the leadership of parliament and the roles in the commission show that it is not just Germans but multiple countries but whatever). If the UK wanted a stronger representation befitting their economy, they should have invested in a stronger diplomatic force, both outside the EU so that it can serve the EU's interests and within the EU so it can serve the UK's interests. They did NEITHER.

They just wanted to limit freedom of movement - they were fine with most of everything else. Take your money and goods but not people. They made strong, multi-year effort before Brexit to get such concessions from EU - primarily Germany.

They failed. Their strength wasn't enough. Why do you think persisting would work any better? What would actually change with time?

Currently Yaroufakis is the one pursuing your preferred strategy - getting into EU institutions to change them from within.

[Pann]

She could call Corbyn's bluff and see if his idea goes through parliament (even if the EU says no), she could call for the people's vote, she could call on parliament to basically reverse Article 50. Hell she can tell the ERG to fuck off out of the conservative party and call a general election, watch as other conservatives take their place instead.

Her deal is dead. She is officially the worst prime minister to have held office post WW2 if we go by how many times the PM has lost in parliament (41 and counting) with 2 of the biggest 4 defeats. She had a 3 line whip that was defied by her own ministers and yet somehow hasn't fired them which means her credibility is gone, she's lost control of her party. She's the lamest of Lame ducks, more so than the last few years of Brown. She holds no authority over the commons.

(Maybe alternative is someone sneak into the palace and remind Elizabeth that technically she has powers that could be used in an emergancy that never really were got rid of in law /s)

Corbyn's idea seems to be staying in the EU but giving up most of the benefits that we currently enjoy, not only would this be a bad idea, it would not satisfy the ref. result and it would split the Tory party (which I don't doubt Corbyn is well aware of). Even if she could tell the ERG where go calling another GE would likely end up, once again, in a hung parliament and therefore would resolve nothing.

It's all well and good saying her deal is dead but let's be practical about this - what is the alternative? We're two weeks away from leaving and we're in a situation where no-one has another deal, the Tories couldn't agree on what the weather is like outside, Labour are rejecting the proposal on the grounds of it potentially keeps us in the CU permanently whilst championing the idea of a permanent CU as well as saying that they would not seek to renegotiate the WA they've just voted down, the SNP are trying to use the situation to leverage their own referendum, the Lib Dems - has anyone seen the Lib Dems? and to top it all off the EU are so fed up with us that they are essentially saying this is the deal, take it or leave it.

I am baffled as to how we go forward from here.

I think at this point in time no-deal is well and truly out of our hands and there is a very real risk that that is where we will end up simply because the EU have ran out of patience with us.

[Dhrizzle]

Putting aside feelings about May, what else could she do? It's taken almost two years to agree this deal with the EU and with the clock ticking there is no consensus within parliament as to what they want to take its place.

She could have put her deal to the vote in December, accepted the loss and started working towards either cross-parliament negotiations that remove the power of the DUP and ERG or a second referendum. Instead she delayed, went back to Europe for talks everyone knew would be fruitless and ran down the clock hoping to panic MPs into supporting her deal.

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I think it would make the matter worse. The divisions can't be healed by ignoring those who voted leave - they need to brought around to the idea of remaining.

How many have been brought around to the idea of Remaining as the reality sets in? How many would rather Remain than accept May's deal or no deal?

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She completely pandered to the ERG up until the point that she had to actually start writing things down on paper - Brexit means Brexit, no deal is better than a bad deal, etc etc etc, all of those utterly meaningless slogans were all red meat for the ERG, nothing more.

Refusing to consider a customs union is for the ERG, I daresay the public don't care if Mogg and co get to make their dirty little deals.

[Dhrizzle]

You can't abandon your parents when they get dementia and start shitting themselves in public. Sometimes you have to take them in and provide the care they need.

I think the US sees the EU as a sort of nursing home for its elderly relatives - one if the nice ones where residents are encouraged to rely on one another and have the chance to be productive. It must be alarming seeing the UK decide to go live in the shed.