View Poll Results: 10 days left, what'll it be?

Voters
92. This poll is closed
  • Hard Brexit (crash out)

    45 48.91%
  • No Brexit (Remain by revoking A50)

    24 26.09%
  • Withdrawal Agreement (after a new session is called)

    0 0%
  • Extension + Withdrawal Agreement

    3 3.26%
  • Extension + Crashout

    9 9.78%
  • Extension + Remain

    11 11.96%
  1. #14241
    Quote Originally Posted by LeGin Tufnel View Post
    Thank you, thank you. A mini Mars bar to Master Slant at the front.
    Us movie buffs have to support each other.
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  2. #14242
    Quote Originally Posted by Demolitia View Post
    The problem here is that a second referendum will come across just as a 2nd and 3rd meaningful vote on the May's deal does. Unless there is a clear (2/3rd) majority in favor of remain or whatever else is on the table, this vulgar display of incompetence and bickering will continue in a divided country and parliament.
    I'm not sure tying yet another vote on the deal + the promise of a referendum would help.
    Oh no. Don't get me wrong. There is no version of this where the UK, and democracy in general, come out looking good. The entire Brexit Saga... from Cameron's reckless decision to hold the referendum, to his incompetence and lassitude in campaigning to Remain, to everything involved in the deals, the May government intrigue, and especially the last 4 months... it's been the worst display of governance and democracy in our life times, in any Western country.

    They'll be teaching 'Brexit' as a model of "what not to do" for a century. It's actually that bad.

    So having accepted that this entire shitshow couldn't have been handled worse, as I see it, it's time to move to mitigating the damage done. That's still keeping the UK inside the EU. Yeah, it'll mean the last 2.5 years have been for absolutely nothing. And yeah, it'll dunk the reputation of democracy and good governance one more time. But democracy and good governance can recover form that, and it'll be partnered with the EU, which will have incentive to help with that. Leave still, and a terrible saga ends on a worse note, and the shitstorm that is coming post-brexit anyway will still just damage democracy and governance even more.

    Basically, there is no winners here. None. So what's the avenue to minimizing the loss?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post


    Time's up anyway, I think. The clock will stop ticking this week.
    It was sounding like an hour or so ago, the EU would give a long extension.

    Not that the UK deserves it one bit.

  3. #14243
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    Quote Originally Posted by LeGin Tufnel View Post
    /sigh

    No-one got it. C'mon film buffs.
    Not sure if the godfather can really be applied here

  4. #14244
    Quote Originally Posted by Acidbaron View Post
    Not sure if the godfather can really be applied here
    In the context of Gabriel's original comment, yes, it can.

  5. #14245
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    Quote Originally Posted by Demolitia View Post
    The problem here is that a second referendum will come across just as a 2nd and 3rd meaningful vote on the May's deal does. Unless there is a clear (2/3rd) majority in favor of remain or whatever else is on the table, this vulgar display of incompetence and bickering will continue in a divided country and parliament.
    I'm not sure tying yet another vote on the deal + the promise of a referendum would help.
    That'll be the UK's problem to deal with soon enough. The clock is ticking down fast.

    The UK is set to leave the EU in about 11 days, and if things go in the direction they seems to be for the 21th of March EU summit, the UK will soon be out whether remainers like it or not.

  6. #14246
    Quote Originally Posted by Skroe View Post
    It was sounding like an hour or so ago, the EU would give a long extension.

    Not that the UK deserves it one bit.
    What individual member states are saying is one thing, what the EU decides to do may be another thing. Here's a couple things to keep in mind:

    1. We're in a veto situation. The acceptance of an extension has to be unanimous. And there are a couple countries that absolutely have bones to pick with Britain.
    2. The ECJ made a preliminary ruling that the revocation of A50 could be unilateral, given that it happens within the member states' constitutional requirements. A legal case could quite easily be construed that the UK is no longer able to revoke A50 while staying within its constitutional limits.
    3. The EU sees no point in extending the process unless there's something to gain from it. So far, the UK hasn't come up with any realistic plan or "use" of the extension. The EU is quite clear on that an extension will not be granted if all the UK wants to do is buy more time or as they call it, "kicking the can further down the road". If people are hoping for that, they will be disappointed this week.
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  7. #14247
    @ Brits here - what do you think is the way forward?

    I'm now genuinely stumped. I'd have reluctantly accepted May's Deal. I think this is the conclusion I've been coming to for a while.

    I'm not sure where Bercow is going with this.

  8. #14248
    Quote Originally Posted by Skroe View Post
    Oh no. Don't get me wrong. There is no version of this where the UK, and democracy in general, come out looking good. The entire Brexit Saga... from Cameron's reckless decision to hold the referendum, to his incompetence and lassitude in campaigning to Remain, to everything involved in the deals, the May government intrigue, and especially the last 4 months... it's been the worst display of governance and democracy in our life times, in any Western country.

    They'll be teaching 'Brexit' as a model of "what not to do" for a century. It's actually that bad.

    So having accepted that this entire shitshow couldn't have been handled worse, as I see it, it's time to move to mitigating the damage done. That's still keeping the UK inside the EU. Yeah, it'll mean the last 2.5 years have been for absolutely nothing. And yeah, it'll dunk the reputation of democracy and good governance one more time. But democracy and good governance can recover form that, and it'll be partnered with the EU, which will have incentive to help with that. Leave still, and a terrible saga ends on a worse note, and the shitstorm that is coming post-brexit anyway will still just damage democracy and governance even more.

    Basically, there is no winners here. None. So what's the avenue to minimizing the loss?

    - - - Updated - - -



    It was sounding like an hour or so ago, the EU would give a long extension.

    Not that the UK deserves it one bit.
    Cameron's lassitude probably came from begging and obtaining substantial concessions from the EU in marathon negotiations with the promise it would make a remain victory easy. His concessions were dismissed at home and leave won.
    Tusk and EU leaders therefore are now rather careful with UK's promises and marketing prowess.
    The problem is that no deal is an absolute disaster for all EU economies. While the general inclination is to tell the UK to fuck off and be done with it, it has tremendous implications of EU wide financing, logistics and businesses, big and small. What we'll witness in the next 10 days is EU leaders weighing whether preserving the EU's integrity is more important than preventing another major economical hit that could last for a decade or more.
    I'm not really sure what will prevail.

  9. #14249
    Quote Originally Posted by LeGin Tufnel View Post
    @ Brits here - what do you think is the way forward?

    I'm now genuinely stumped. I'd have reluctantly accepted May's Deal. I think this is the conclusion I've been coming to for a while.

    I'm not sure where Bercow is going with this.
    I'm pretty certain that he's not playing games but trying to maintain order as per the house rules. I say this because he is a remainer, or so I gather, and with this move, he could very well be forcing May's hand into either no deal or revoking A50. If he's actually doing that, then hats off to the man, because that'd have to be the biggest bluff the world has ever seen to date.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    It's now likely useless. The long extension would serve to blackmail the ERG to vote for her deal. Now the deal is off the table so the long extension doesn't really factor into this game in any way that gives a resolution that favours May or the Tories. A long extension could work with a GE since the EU knows that Corbyn is willing to sign off an even worse deal than May's Deal that is even more advantageous for the EU but the chance she will call a GE seems nonexistent.
    Now the EU could of course come out and say something clear like "We cannot justify an extension with no deal on the table unless you declare a GE or call for a referendum". And they will say that in every possible indirect way but they will not signal it directly because then they become exactly what the eurosceptics accuse them of.
    They have said that explicitely already. Numerous times. Does nobody listen to them? :P
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  10. #14250
    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    What individual member states are saying is one thing, what the EU decides to do may be another thing. Here's a couple things to keep in mind:

    1. We're in a veto situation. The acceptance of an extension has to be unanimous. And there are a couple countries that absolutely have bones to pick with Britain.
    2. The ECJ made a preliminary ruling that the revocation of A50 could be unilateral, given that it happens within the member states' constitutional requirements. A legal case could quite easily be construed that the UK is no longer able to revoke A50 while staying within its constitutional limits.
    3. The EU sees no point in extending the process unless there's something to gain from it. So far, the UK hasn't come up with any realistic plan or "use" of the extension. The EU is quite clear on that an extension will not be granted if all the UK wants to do is buy more time or as they call it, "kicking the can further down the road". If people are hoping for that, they will be disappointed this week.
    Well as I see it, the only thing big enough to justify any kind of a delay is saying the deal will require a second referendum with a remain / may deal choice. That's as "big" as things can get now.

    Every thing else is just May begging for time to twist arms. Nothing else is big enough and yeah, the EU should tell her, and the UK, to take a flying leap.

  11. #14251
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    A long extension could work with a GE since the EU knows that Corbyn is willing to sign off an even worse deal than May's Deal that is even more advantageous for the EU but the chance she will call a GE seems nonexistent.
    But - that's so vague isn't it. Corbyn signing off a worse deal implies a) Labour wins a GE b) his party agrees to it c) they have have a majority (taking into account die hard no dealers and no Brexiters) to force it through parliament. What if the Tories win a GE?

    IMO - precondition of an extension should not be a GE. It'd solve absolutely nothing. Precondition would have to be a referendum.

  12. #14252
    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    What individual member states are saying is one thing, what the EU decides to do may be another thing. Here's a couple things to keep in mind:

    1. We're in a veto situation. The acceptance of an extension has to be unanimous. And there are a couple countries that absolutely have bones to pick with Britain.
    2. The ECJ made a preliminary ruling that the revocation of A50 could be unilateral, given that it happens within the member states' constitutional requirements. A legal case could quite easily be construed that the UK is no longer able to revoke A50 while staying within its constitutional limits.
    3. The EU sees no point in extending the process unless there's something to gain from it. So far, the UK hasn't come up with any realistic plan or "use" of the extension. The EU is quite clear on that an extension will not be granted if all the UK wants to do is buy more time or as they call it, "kicking the can further down the road". If people are hoping for that, they will be disappointed this week.
    Where I would disagree with your point 1, is that you seem to be considering that in a vacuum. If a country vetoes it, causes a no-deal exit and that damages some of their fellow EU countries, that is going to be diplomatically awkward.

    I'm not saying it won't happen, but I'm saying there are going to be a lot of opposing forces acting behind the scenes. Much like the rest of the Brexit process, predicting which way things will go is going to be tricky.

    And as far as point 3 is concerned; the EU gets to gain avoiding no-deal. While it damages the UK far more, it's still going to be damaging for an EU that isn't in the best of economic shape at the moment. Don't underestimate the lengths they will go to avoid it, if they think they can use that leverage for a better result further down the line. And considering pretty much any kind of deal is going to be better than no-deal (for the EU) I can still see that happening.
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  13. #14253
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    As far as that is concerned, the EU members don't really get to pick a bone with Britain if they crash the deal now. Or at least, the bone will be far too lean on meat. Easier to pick them clean by pushing for a resolution because every resolution in this game, except maybe for Remain, is going to be in the EU's advantage zero-sum.
    The EU has bigger fish to fry... ultimately, the UK as a nation isn't big enough to warrant this much attention. Verhoefstedt has said as much in the EP already, and I think many people agree with him. The EU needs to reform, the EU wants to reform... but we're too busy pampering a child that's being very, very unruly. We need to end this tragedy and we need to end it decisively. If they can't finish it, we need to finish it for them.
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  14. #14254
    Quote Originally Posted by LeGin Tufnel View Post
    @ Brits here - what do you think is the way forward?

    I'm now genuinely stumped. I'd have reluctantly accepted May's Deal. I think this is the conclusion I've been coming to for a while.

    I'm not sure where Bercow is going with this.
    Where from here? A deal so soft it's practically staying, meaning that we can tell the Leavers they won, because we left the EU. Schisms created in the major parties, leading to the creation of a hard right ERG group, a centrist ex-Labour (with some of the wetter Tories as well) and who knows what else. A realisation that the only way to preserve power in that brave new world is going to be some form of PR. So we see the end of FPTP.

    I would take that as a win. I'd even look a Leaver in the eye and congratulate them for their win.
    When challenging a Kzin, a simple scream of rage is sufficient. You scream and you leap.
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    Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
    Quote Originally Posted by Douglas Adams
    It is a well-known fact that those people who must want to rule people are, ipso facto, those least suited to do it... anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job.

  15. #14255
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    Slant, I mean officially. We have intimated it in every way but the only way to do it officially is for there to be a Eurogroup and then after the Eurogroup for there to be an announcement. Of course the Commission and several member states have said it but not in a binding, non-negotiable manner. And it is clear that the UK still acts under the delusion that there is something to negotiate. What it would take is not to tell them it would be a great idea to declare something so we can negotiate, it would be to openly tell them not to even bother coming to Brussels without having done so first.
    Hmm, not sure how much more official it has to get than the chief negotiator, the Council President and all major member state leaders saying it, but sure, we can wait until Thursday to make it more official, with signatures and a seal on top. I get your point.
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  16. #14256
    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    We need to end this tragedy and we need to end it decisively. If they can't finish it, we need to finish it for them.
    I think the EU should make us an offer we can't refuse.

  17. #14257
    Quote Originally Posted by Demolitia View Post
    Cameron's lassitude probably came from begging and obtaining substantial concessions from the EU in marathon negotiations with the promise it would make a remain victory easy. His concessions were dismissed at home and leave won.
    I just think it's David Cameron being David Cameron. He did the exact same shit with the Syrian Bombing campaign vote in Commons that dropped a shit storm on Obama's lap and broke NATO unity. He did the exact same shit with the Scottish Referendum that saw disaster narrowly avoided, no thanks to him.

    David Cameron was a vain son of a bitch who thought making some speech he imagined in his so-called brain, that would be taught in schools for the next 75 years (nobody remembers them of course), was enough to carry the vote. And because of that he delayed campaigning until the last minute, and it wasn't enough. And worst of all, and breaking with pretty much parliamentary strategy 101 in any country, he was stupid enough to call a vote before counting heads ahead of time and making sure he'd win the vote.


    The Western World has been cursed with some rancid politicians in the last 20 years. Liars. Cheats. Demagogues. All around terrible people. David Cameron is one of the worst. He is not a demagogue like Donald Trump, nor a liar like Tony Blair, nor crooked like Sarkozy, nor naive like Obama. No. He was the politician who found new ways to be incompetent at politicking on issues that had the potential to be highly destructive.





    Quote Originally Posted by Demolitia View Post

    Tusk and EU leaders therefore are now rather careful with UK's promises and marketing prowess.
    The problem is that no deal is an absolute disaster for all EU economies. While the general inclination is to tell the UK to fuck off and be done with it, it has tremendous implications of EU wide financing, logistics and businesses, big and small. What we'll witness in the next 10 days is EU leaders weighing whether preserving the EU's integrity is more important than preventing another major economical hit that could last for a decade or more.
    I'm not really sure what will prevail.
    The EU should just eat the costs at this point, if May won't add in a second referendum. For the EU it'll be hard, but get easier. For the UK, it'll get hard, then get harder.

  18. #14258
    Quote Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl View Post
    Where I would disagree with your point 1, is that you seem to be considering that in a vacuum. If a country vetoes it, causes a no-deal exit and that damages some of their fellow EU countries, that is going to be diplomatically awkward.

    I'm not saying it won't happen, but I'm saying there are going to be a lot of opposing forces acting behind the scenes. Much like the rest of the Brexit process, predicting which way things will go is going to be tricky.

    And as far as point 3 is concerned; the EU gets to gain avoiding no-deal. While it damages the UK far more, it's still going to be damaging for an EU that isn't in the best of economic shape at the moment. Don't underestimate the lengths they will go to avoid it, if they think they can use that leverage for a better result further down the line. And considering pretty much any kind of deal is going to be better than no-deal (for the EU) I can still see that happening.
    "Diplomatic awkwardness" is not a consideration for these situations. The vetoes have been consciously implemented for a reason. The unanimousity has been implemented for a reason. Unity in the EU is more important than grudges because a country disagreed. I think it would be even more diplomatically awkward if a member state was bullied into acting against their convictions. Something Germany is often accused of doing but actually rarely does in such a drastic manner.
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  19. #14259
    Quote Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl View Post
    Where from here? A deal so soft it's practically staying, meaning that we can tell the Leavers they won, because we left the EU. Schisms created in the major parties, leading to the creation of a hard right ERG group, a centrist ex-Labour (with some of the wetter Tories as well) and who knows what else. A realisation that the only way to preserve power in that brave new world is going to be some form of PR. So we see the end of FPTP.

    I would take that as a win. I'd even look a Leaver in the eye and congratulate them for their win.
    Yep, sure. I'd definitely take that... I'm just not sure how you see that coming to pass.

  20. #14260
    The Insane Acidbaron's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl View Post
    Where I would disagree with your point 1, is that you seem to be considering that in a vacuum. If a country vetoes it, causes a no-deal exit and that damages some of their fellow EU countries, that is going to be diplomatically awkward.

    I'm not saying it won't happen, but I'm saying there are going to be a lot of opposing forces acting behind the scenes. Much like the rest of the Brexit process, predicting which way things will go is going to be tricky.

    And as far as point 3 is concerned; the EU gets to gain avoiding no-deal. While it damages the UK far more, it's still going to be damaging for an EU that isn't in the best of economic shape at the moment. Don't underestimate the lengths they will go to avoid it, if they think they can use that leverage for a better result further down the line. And considering pretty much any kind of deal is going to be better than no-deal (for the EU) I can still see that happening.
    Yes and no, also the uncertainty is causing damage, hence you have countries including mine saying rather a crash out with no deal than another extension. You also have the EU elections.

    It also assume that after an extension something productive will happen what hasn't taken place in the last 30 months.

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