Why TRUMP will win in 2020

[CostinR]

Reading here and in other places it seems to me nothing's changed since 2016 where many people predicted that Trump would lose largely driven by them wanting him to lose as opposed to actual data that was there, the biggest pile of manure to come out of that year was the idea the "polls were wrong".

No they weren't the polls were off by slightly over 1% in terms of the difference between Clinton and Trump, yet the way those polls were read as some indication that not only Trump would lose but as almost an absolute certainty was what led to so much surprise.

I suggest people really look at hard data, analysis and political predictions and NOT from the very same people that got it so wrong in 2016.

As a note here's Politico making a point that Trump would win in a landslide if the election were held today based on economic models: https://www.politico.com/story/2019/...ection-1230495

[Fahrenheit]

Reading here and in other places it seems to me nothing's changed since 2016 where many people predicted that Trump would lose largely driven by them wanting him to lose as opposed to actual data that was there, the biggest pile of manure to come out of that year was the idea the "polls were wrong".

No they weren't the polls were off by slightly over 1% in terms of the difference between Clinton and Trump, yet the way those polls were read as some indication that not only Trump would lose but as almost an absolute certainty was what led to so much surprise.

I suggest people really look at hard data, analysis and political predictions and NOT from the very same people that got it so wrong in 2016.

As a note here's Politico making a point that Trump would win in a landslide if the election were held today based on economic models: https://www.politico.com/story/2019/...ection-1230495

No one knows. But the 'hard data' suggests he won in 2016 by the skin of his teeth and has since alienated a percentage of moderates (particularly Caucasian women) that helped put him over the top. He has little room for error, and he's made several errors, as such, he's in a significantly worse position for reelection than Clinton, Bush or Obama were at this point in reelection bids. It's still possible, but he needs to make a strong push to the center and reign in some of his bad habits to attempt to woo back the women that voted for him in 2016 and were hoping for a more Presidential Trump once he was sworn in but jumped ship in 2017/2018. He also won't get several benefits this time around that he got in 2016; He doesn't have the political unknown factor working for him and people are no longer expecting the Presidential pivot, he doesn't have the 1 party fatigue after 2 terms by a Democrat, won't be going up against Clinton and her 30+ years of baggage, won't have DNC shenanigans working in his favor, won't have the Democratic candidate ignore the entire upper Midwest. His saving grace right now is the economy, which by all accounts is softening and trending downwards in the next year. Hell, the UK could shit the bed with Brexit in the next few weeks and it would ripple across the pond over the next several months/years and hurt his chances even more.

[Polyxo]

Trump won't lose Texas. He's in a great position.

He's polling between +4, and dead even with DNC candidates.

[Blur4stuff]

Trump is in a significantly worse position now than in 2016. The only thing helping him is the economy still coasting which, as we all know, isn't going to last to 2020 election day.

[Fugus]

Trump is in a significantly worse position now than in 2016. The only thing helping him is the economy still coasting which, as we all know, isn't going to last to 2020 election day.

Hell, the DOW has basically erased an entire year of gains under his first year of policies as his first actual year was under Obama's stuff till December.

[SirBeef]

That's an incorrect way to use vote swings. You cannot just look at once election to determine that. All 4 states are moving to the right overall over the last several elections. That's never a straight line. There can be steps back here or there but OVERALL all 4 are trending republican.

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Obama's EC margin of victory was also around 300k votes across 3 states in 2012.

And he also crushed the popular vote.

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Reading here and in other places it seems to me nothing's changed since 2016 where many people predicted that Trump would lose largely driven by them wanting him to lose as opposed to actual data that was there, the biggest pile of manure to come out of that year was the idea the "polls were wrong".

No they weren't the polls were off by slightly over 1% in terms of the difference between Clinton and Trump, yet the way those polls were read as some indication that not only Trump would lose but as almost an absolute certainty was what led to so much surprise.

I suggest people really look at hard data, analysis and political predictions and NOT from the very same people that got it so wrong in 2016.

As a note here's Politico making a point that Trump would win in a landslide if the election were held today based on economic models: https://www.politico.com/story/2019/...ection-1230495

Fools predicted that. Most outlets predicted Clinton wining within the margin of error, meaning Trumps win, was not a shocker to the data.

[TheramoreIsTheBomb]

What matters today is voting in counties against the popular candidate in the election. I theorize Trump will win Virginia, Vermont and New York.

[Guchie]

Trump is in a worse position now than he was in 2016. He can no longer make big promises and pretend he can follow through. We know for a fact he cannot. This may not matter to his base, but Trump has lost millions of voters in the middle. And then there's the long string of fuck ups. And then there's the 17 investigations into Trump and his people.

None of the current dem candidates are as bad or worse than Clinton. Trump will not win those states in which he barely beat Hillary.

In order for Trump to have had a chance in 2020, he needed to do a good job. He has not so far. He's been a very poor president. The only people who will think otherwise are those brainwashed by conservative media like Fox News. They were always going to vote republican anyways.

If republicans had nominated someone like Kasich, not only would he have beaten Clinton but he'd had a better than 50/50 shot at winning 2020. Republicans fucked up.

He can say the left stopped him on many fronts.

There is a few things to think about from here until 2020.

1. They will have their first tax year in 2020 where they had tax cuts AND no more ACA Mandate looming at the end of the year.

2. If the economy goes down that will be bad for Trump, his biggest boon has been the beaming economy as of late. Hopefully the signs of the recession are incorrect (not for trump for all of us).

3. It's hard to predict, even with polls, how many people still support trump. There is such a stigma for people who are trump supporters that they remain silent. My co worker is a super hard trump supporter (she used to hate him pre election). She said "Im on a bus and I have to hide my phone cause if some crazy leftist sees me talking to my BF about anything Trump they will likely break my phone."

Trump is hard to predict because the press is so negative, no one wants to admit support, even in private.

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And he also crushed the popular vote.

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Fools predicted that. Most outlets predicted Clinton wining within the margin of error, meaning Trumps win, was not a shocker to the data.

Yes obviously he had a chance to win within a margin of error cause he won.

The problem is that margin for him to win was so slim no one thought he was going to win, until he did. The only way trump had an absolute zero chance of winning, is if he dropped out, dont be daft.

[SirBeef]

The problem is that margin for him to win was so slim no one thought he was going to win, until he did. The only way trump had an absolute zero chance of winning, is if he dropped out, dont be daft.

No shit. Did you read the comment I responded to? He claimed everyone was predicting a landslide for Clinton, when no one was. Yeah she had, up to a 12 pt margin in some polls prior to Comey opening his mouth and inserting his foot. But the months, weeks, and days leading to the vote, pretty much everyone said it would be close.

[Fugus]

He can say the left stopped him on many fronts.

There is a few things to think about from here until 2020.

1. They will have their first tax year in 2020 where they had tax cuts AND no more ACA Mandate looming at the end of the year.

2. If the economy goes down that will be bad for Trump, his biggest boon has been the beaming economy as of late. Hopefully the signs of the recession are incorrect (not for trump for all of us).

3. It's hard to predict, even with polls, how many people still support trump. There is such a stigma for people who are trump supporters that they remain silent. My co worker is a super hard trump supporter (she used to hate him pre election). She said "Im on a bus and I have to hide my phone cause if some crazy leftist sees me talking to my BF about anything Trump they will likely break my phone."

Trump is hard to predict because the press is so negative, no one wants to admit support, even in private.

Just wanted to chime in on a few things with your stuff.

1) His tax cuts largely didn't help the working class or poor much at all. The amount saved by many of them over the course of a year would be enough for maybe a tank of gas. So not really a selling point for him. Especially after 2025 and their rates go up compared to even before.

2) The economy started improving 7 years before Trump took office. While he has been riding it and claiming it for his own, the success isn't his and anyone paying attention already knew he was coasting on his predecessors success and all he could claim is he hadn't screwed it up. If it turns, then he actually is stuck owning that he ruined the economy and his policies didn't contribute to that success in any tangible way.

3) I can see some of the Trump supporters do that, I know a few who are very vocal about their support of him but they are deluded enough to see pretty much anyone to the left of the Tea-Party in that light. So I can definitely see some thinking that.

As far as the press being so negative towards him, it is well warranted negative coverage of him and it would pretty much require them to lie on his behalf to make it positive otherwise just ignoring all the stuff he has done just to give puff pieces about him.

[Guchie]

Just wanted to chime in on a few things with your stuff.

1) His tax cuts largely didn't help the working class or poor much at all. The amount saved by many of them over the course of a year would be enough for maybe a tank of gas. So not really a selling point for him. Especially after 2025 and their rates go up compared to even before.

2) The economy started improving 7 years before Trump took office. While he has been riding it and claiming it for his own, the success isn't his and anyone paying attention already knew he was coasting on his predecessors success and all he could claim is he hadn't screwed it up. If it turns, then he actually is stuck owning that he ruined the economy and his policies didn't contribute to that success in any tangible way.

3) I can see some of the Trump supporters do that, I know a few who are very vocal about their support of him but they are deluded enough to see pretty much anyone to the left of the Tea-Party in that light. So I can definitely see some thinking that.

As far as the press being so negative towards him, it is well warranted negative coverage of him and it would pretty much require them to lie on his behalf to make it positive otherwise just ignoring all the stuff he has done just to give puff pieces about him.

1. How can you provide a tax cut to people who dont pay taxes? I will say I received a benefit, not a huge benefit, but a benefit. I also wont be paying an ACA penalty again, thanks Trump you saved me 1300 a year in taxes alone on that one.

2. Right, but the stocks took off almost immediately after Trump won the election. Jobs shot up month over month, jobs that people thought were gone came back, or the now popular, "Those manufacturing jobs aren't coming back." speech, well they did. "Trump's figure is close. The U.S. has added 454,000 manufacturing jobs since Trump took office in January 2017, some of the biggest gains in twenty years, according to jobs data. Trump’s numbers mark an acceleration of a trend that began in 2010"

Further If you say that the economy 2 years into Trumps term isn't his responsibility, you just admitted that the economy reversing 1 year into Obama's was the result of Bush's policies, not Obama's.

3. I live in a very liberal city, there are a lot more people who support Trump privately because the left has become so deranged over Trumps presidency that if they catch wind you have any conservative views they will just cut you out entirely.

[Fugus]

1. How can you provide a tax cut to people who dont pay taxes? I will say I received a benefit, not a huge benefit, but a benefit. I also wont be paying an ACA penalty again, thanks Trump you saved me 1300 a year in taxes alone on that one.

2. Right, but the stocks took off almost immediately after Trump won the election. Jobs shot up month over month, jobs that people thought were gone came back, or the now popular, "Those manufacturing jobs aren't coming back." speech, well they did. "Trump's figure is close. The U.S. has added 454,000 manufacturing jobs since Trump took office in January 2017, some of the biggest gains in twenty years, according to jobs data. Trump’s numbers mark an acceleration of a trend that began in 2010"

Further If you say that the economy 2 years into Trumps term isn't his responsibility, you just admitted that the economy reversing 1 year into Obama's was the result of Bush's policies, not Obama's.

3. I live in a very liberal city, there are a lot more people who support Trump privately because the left has become so deranged over Trumps presidency that if they catch wind you have any conservative views they will just cut you out entirely.

1) I was referring to those who did pay taxes. You saved on the ACA, now don't get hurt or you might go bankrupt or die.

2) Wrong, the stocks had been gaining for years under Obama and continued under Trump and then repeatedly toppled when he opened his mouth. Just as he took over, it did have a steep increase but also had an equally steep decrease just a week or two prior making that a rebound.

Again, Jobs had been improving for years under Obama and continued under Trump.

Also, Trumps first year was under OBAMA'S policies, Trumps and the GOP weren't implemented till December of 2017. So you can thank Obama for that.

And no, Obama's first year was under Bushes policies which is why it still tanked. Trumps first year was under Obama's policies which is why the first year still was improving.

3) Congrats on your anecdote. It might be true, it might not. But isn't representative of the nation as a whole and statistically, it is on the other end of the equation.

[Blur4stuff]

I don't know any liberals that cut people out of their lives for having conservative views. I do, however, know some that will if you support a person that bragged about routinely getting away with sexual assault. And the long list of other despicable things.

Kind of hard to have respect for a person that worships a guy you can't leave your daughter alone with.

[Guchie]

1) I was referring to those who did pay taxes. You saved on the ACA, now don't get hurt or you might go bankrupt or die.

2) Wrong, the stocks had been gaining for years under Obama and continued under Trump and then repeatedly toppled when he opened his mouth. Just as he took over, it did have a steep increase but also had an equally steep decrease just a week or two prior making that a rebound.

Again, Jobs had been improving for years under Obama and continued under Trump.

Also, Trumps first year was under OBAMA'S policies, Trumps and the GOP weren't implemented till December of 2017. So you can thank Obama for that.

And no, Obama's first year was under Bushes policies which is why it still tanked. Trumps first year was under Obama's policies which is why the first year still was improving.

3) Congrats on your anecdote. It might be true, it might not. But isn't representative of the nation as a whole and statistically, it is on the other end of the equation.

1. In case it wasnt obvious I was paying the penalty because I didnt have insurance, now I have 1300+ a year in case something happens, go me.

2. Obviously you have no idea what a rebound is or the state of the market, the market was in a steady, but minimal decline until the election, there was major uncertainty on election night but shortly after stocks shot up and kept shooting up. It wasnt a trend continued from Obama policies, it was the market reflection on a pro business president.

Obamas presidency was hardly recognized as an economic boon, recovery maybe but thats it. I love the revisionism though, All those things Obama said werent going to happen again? Sure glad he planned his economy to peak right as he left and only for that year he wasnt around, reallllly thoughtful of him lol.

3. You provided an anecdote, I provided one back, congrats on not having the logical capacity to understand that.

[Felya]

1. In case it wasnt obvious I was paying the penalty because I didnt have insurance, now I have 1300+ a year in case something happens, go me.

When have you been in an ambulance last time? 1300 gets you a ride to the hospital... 1300 is how much you need to spend a year, before insurance even kicks in. I really hope you never get hurt, because people like me will end up paying for it.

[Cthulhu 2020]

>Trump already lost by the largest margin any president has won the electoral college and still lost the popular vote.
>Trump's polling numbers have dropped since 2016 significantly.
>He was up against the "worst Democratic candidate in history" said most Trumpkins. Guess what happens when he goes up against a great Democrat without a checkered past?
>Of the past 5 presidents who have lost the popular vote, none won reelection except Bush Jr, who had a war to bump his approval sky high.
>Trump's administration has been plagued by illegal activity, mismanagement, lack of positions being filled, scandals, lawlessness, and general shittiness.
>Democratic candidates are already giving a ton of attention to the states that barely carried Trump, and their approval is shooting sky high.

Trump is fucked in 2020 unless he gets a wartime miracle that sky rockets his approval.

[Somewhatconcerned]

>Trump already lost by the largest margin any president has won the electoral college and still lost the popular vote.
>Trump's polling numbers have dropped since 2016 significantly.
>He was up against the "worst Democratic candidate in history" said most Trumpkins. Guess what happens when he goes up against a great Democrat without a checkered past?
>Of the past 5 presidents who have lost the popular vote, none won reelection except Bush Jr, who had a war to bump his approval sky high.
>Trump's administration has been plagued by illegal activity, mismanagement, lack of positions being filled, scandals, lawlessness, and general shittiness.
>Democratic candidates are already giving a ton of attention to the states that barely carried Trump, and their approval is shooting sky high.

Trump is fucked in 2020 unless he gets a wartime miracle that sky rockets his approval.

Correct me if I am wrong, but I think his aggregate polling numbers are slightly higher, especially when compared to when he was first elected.

Problem is that the Dems will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by nominating a Biden and/or the Mueller report will be an irreparable, fatal wound the6will struggle to recover from. Not to mention people like AOC and Omar scaring away more voters with their rhetoric.

At this point I have zero faith in the Dems to put together a cohesive campaign.

[Independent voter]

If the dems run a far left candidate, I can see a Trump win.

Independents will see Trump as the lesser of two evils.

[Sky High]

If the dems run a far left candidate, I can see a Trump win.

Independents will see Trump as the lesser of two evils.

that only works when he's put up against someone like Clinton. I realize Trump's noticeably left leaning policies during the campaign are quickly forgotten by his defense league but people don't forget and polls don't lie.

[TheramoreIsTheBomb]

No collusion. Now he’s going to win vote from other areas unlike before. Thanks Democrats for trying to beat the Republicans at their greatest game: Theories