The Brexit aftermath thread

[Kronik85]

I don't really understand where she's going with this. If the Tories are going to split over a softer Brexit, whether or not she can pin it on Labour won't help? They'll still split, and her legacy will be the PM who failed to deliver Brexit and oversaw the fracturing of her party. When the blame for the latter really should be pinned on Cameron.

I don't think we are looking at a Conservative split as such but a pitch to the right by the Cons in the next GE. With the entryism we are seeing within the Conservatives then Remain leaning Conservative MPs are looking at a very real threat of deselection, so it's not the ERG that will be splitting from the Cons but the centrists (and by that I mean they simply wont be standing as Cons, centrists are creatures of safety, they won't split but be pushed out). By palming off some of the blame of a CU Brexit onto Corbyn then May will be limiting the amount of damage done to Remainer MPs and providing cover to the party as a whole.

It's not foolproof but it's May so when she arrives at a course of action she sticks to it and lets be honest here. Have you ever read or seen Life the Universe and Everything? At one point they arrive at a planet which is covered in Rakes and stepping on them causes the handle to rise up and smack you in the face. That's Jeremy Corbyn's stint as the Labour leader so far, repeatedly bloodying his own face as he makes gaffe after gaffe. Putting the impetus into his hands is bound to result in more of the same for the man.

[Northern Goblin]

Makes sense, Macron has his own issues with far right wing populism to handle in an upcoming election. He doesn't need Farage being a performing goon in the European Parliament to drum up support for his opponent.

Meanwhile our Parliament just had it's first tie vote in over 25 years.

[Noradin]

Bad example I played Paladin and there weren't any one-shot abilities in the game when I was playing it Are you honestly saying there weren't people who thought Paladin bubble was busted OP and should be removed (didn't it *get* removed in the end?)...

Sure there were: Fall damage for example.

[Slant]

Sure there were: Fall damage for example.

Old Mortal Strike was very one-shot. It's the reason why damage abilities are harmonized now. :P

[Acidbaron]

Brits complaining about the banks, while London has been a safe haven for crooks the EU and US has been constantly asking the UK to do something about as its a high security risk and they did diddly squat.

Another thing the brits like to moan about but are unwilling to budge on. Don't worry if they move to the EU they'll be regulated here better.


Still not seeing any reason to let the brits participate in the EU election, we need less childish populism not more.

[LeGin Tufnel]

I don't think we are looking at a Conservative split as such but a pitch to the right by the Cons in the next GE. With the entryism we are seeing within the Conservatives then Remain leaning Conservative MPs are looking at a very real threat of deselection, so it's not the ERG that will be splitting from the Cons but the centrists (and by that I mean they simply wont be standing as Cons, centrists are creatures of safety, they won't split but be pushed out). By palming off some of the blame of a CU Brexit onto Corbyn then May will be limiting the amount of damage done to Remainer MPs and providing cover to the party as a whole.

It's not foolproof but it's May so when she arrives at a course of action she sticks to it and lets be honest here. Have you ever read or seen Life the Universe and Everything? At one point they arrive at a planet which is covered in Rakes and stepping on them causes the handle to rise up and smack you in the face. That's Jeremy Corbyn's stint as the Labour leader so far, repeatedly bloodying his own face as he makes gaffe after gaffe. Putting the impetus into his hands is bound to result in more of the same for the man.

Thing is, by that point (GE) it’ll be too late. The Brexiteers will have lost their no deal. What’s more important to them? No deal or their party? Because, I reckon it’d be no deal.

Of the two factions, I’d think that it’d be the Brexiteers who’d be more likely to throw their toys out of the pram. Steve (Hardman) Baker. Mark Francois. Rees-Mogg. They’re all one sandwich short of a picnic.

E.g., https://www.theguardian.com/politics...e-davis-brexit

If the lunatics take over the asylum, I can’t see the moderates / centrists being the ones to leave the party. Surely the nutters will just fuck off to Farage? Isn’t that the reason why we’re all here now?

I’m going along with the assumption that this is a tactic by May to push the cliff edge further down the line.

Douglas Adams. One of my favourite books as a teenager (just after it had come out) was Dirk Gently’s Holistic Detective Agency. Loved it. Then I went back and tried to read Hitchhiker’s etc. Just didn’t get it

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Brits complaining about the banks, while London has been a safe haven for crooks the EU and US has been constantly asking the UK to do something about as its a high security risk and they did diddly squat.

Another thing the brits like to moan about but are unwilling to budge on. Don't worry if they move to the EU they'll be regulated here better.


Still not seeing any reason to let the brits participate in the EU election, we need less childish populism not more.

IDD but

“metastasising cancer … better to cut off the sick branch to preserve the trunk” as, I think, Macron put it

The problem is, following the EP elections shortly, you'll be down to a torso, one arm and a sword.

[Slant]

IDD but

“metastasising cancer … better to cut off the sick branch to preserve the trunk” as, I think, Macron put it

The problem is, following the EP elections shortly, you'll be down to a torso, one arm and a sword.

That's one interpretation. On the other hand, the UK remains in NATO. And it is not us who is losing the EU wide arrest warrant, it's the UK that's losing it. As for the rest, we'll be losing a very obstructionist arm and a very deficient torso, as these HoC debates show quite clearly. Again, not speaking about the British people, but about the UK as an entity. In any case, it's really easy to see how this is actually getting the EU forward. It's not at all doom and gloom over here. We're fine with you crashing out, both politically and economically. We'll have a few hits, but by and large, we've had 3 years to prepare. And we actually did prepare.

[LeGin Tufnel]

Well, arms handing out swords from lakes seems to be a better form of government for England than whatever they got going on right now.

Tis but a flesh wound.

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That's one interpretation. On the other hand, the UK remains in NATO. And it is not us who is losing the EU wide arrest warrant, it's the UK that's losing it. As for the rest, we'll be losing a very obstructionist arm and a very deficient torso, as these HoC debates show quite clearly. Again, not speaking about the British people, but about the UK as an entity. In any case, it's really easy to see how this is actually getting the EU forward. It's not at all doom and gloom over here. We're fine with you crashing out, both politically and economically. We'll have a few hits, but by and large, we've had 3 years to prepare. And we actually did prepare.

Yes, yes, yes Slant... we both agree on this. I'm not being serious.

What I'm getting at is the rise of populism in general.

You think Brexit will be a unifying rather than a dividing force?

[Pann]

The Cooper-Letwin bill passes 315-310 meaning that the legal default in absence of a deal is no longer no-deal but how this plays out in practice is yet to be seen.

[Acidbaron]

IDD but

“metastasising cancer … better to cut off the sick branch to preserve the trunk” as, I think, Macron put it

The problem is, following the EP elections shortly, you'll be down to a torso, one arm and a sword.

Right now the UK parliament is under a minority tyranny of heavy anti-EU folk, so i'm not sure what we would gain. There's EU scepticism and there's the UK kind that will sacrifice everything in the name of a fantasy.

[Acidbaron]

Yes because the rest of our banks in Europe are all pillars of self-regulation and transparency. . . Just because their banks are full of shit doesn't mean ours are clean, they are just less deep in shit because their pools are more shallow.

They are being worked at, we know there's crime and blood money here but it's not comparable to the "city", where intelligence agencies are warning the nation of the risks. One could also argue that the city is the backdoor into other EU banks.

[Slant]

Yes, yes, yes Slant... we both agree on this. I'm not being serious.

What I'm getting at is the rise of populism in general.

You think Brexit will be a unifying rather than a dividing force?

Yes, in some aspects it will be. For the EU, it will give the EU an opportunity to focus on itself. See, Brexit is really one member state distracting the EU from matters that are actually important. I recognize that Brexit is important for the British people, but we still should deal with Greece (I will never neglect our duty to show solidarity and help Greece regain the status it deserves), immigration and other things that actually affect us progressively. Those things are effectively put on a slow burner while political and media attention is focused on Great Britain. I am sure that the ego boost to British politicians is massive, being observed like this, but it really, really helps no one accomplish anything.

About the UK, at this stage, division in the country is almost deeper than the division in the US between Democrats and Republicans. Not divided by party lines, but by a new direction: pro-EU vs. anti-EU. And while that division is bad for the UK, once you are out, you get to re-evaluate the anti-EU stance with clear evidence. That will, hopefully, in the medium term help unify the country behind a pro-EU stance and leave populism in the dust, where it belongs. I can say this with some confidence because most claims made by populism can easily be proven wrong by trying it out. That's the danger and the fallacy of populism. They make outrageous claims and offer simplistic solutions that are in the vast majority incompatible with each other and only lead to disaster.

So, yes. By and large, Brexit will unify both side more than it will divide. Note: I am aware that I'm trying to speak from a reasonable point of view and will most likely be proven wrong in some aspects by the irrational idiocy of Brexiteers, but my hope is that their numbers will diminish rather quickly.

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Yes because the rest of our banks in Europe are all pillars of self-regulation and transparency. . . Just because their banks are full of shit doesn't mean ours are clean, they are just less deep in shit because their pools are more shallow.

Also, they are more heavily regulated. Deutsche Bank, however, is an almost daily reminder that it's almost impossible to regulate banks enough... much to our shame.

[Acidbaron]

I disagree that countries have to become Pro-EU, that's part of the problem that fed this paranoia called the brexit. That people find you can't go in against the EU, i find EU scepticism has a mandatory place and is healthy to have, but that sentiment has to be based off by arguments not misinformation from foreign threats like US far right and Russia.

[Slant]

I disagree that countries have to become Pro-EU, that's part of the problem that fed this paranoia called the brexit. That people find you can't go in against the EU, i find EU scepticism has a mandatory place and is healthy to have, but that sentiment has to be based off by arguments not misinformation from foreign threats like US far right and Russia.

You can be both pro-EU and be an EU-critic. In fact, I would argue to be a proper EU-critic, you have to be pro-EU, because critique aims at bettering the thing you're critiquing.

What you can't be is be pro-EU and anti-EU at the same time. Anti-EU meaning the rejection of anything connected to the EU. The Brexit leave side is not just critical of the EU, they outright reject anything about the EU. That has to go before they want to rejoin. I know of no country that allows a party to exist that simply wants to dissolve its own country. Why should the EU, a supranational entity being closer to a nation than a mere trade treaty, suffer that kind of destructivism?

[LeGin Tufnel]

/snip

Yep. But that isn't, really, addressing why you think the populist concerns of individuals with axes to grind align with your concerns. E.g., as far as I'm aware, the gillet jeunes aren't rioting on behalf of the Greeks?

But...

Let's not detract from the farce being played out in parliament as we speak:

Who are the 310 turds who voted against Letwin / Cooper.

Bill Cash "I am beginning to observe that this bill is complete rubbish."

Tory MP Bob Seely says he is opposing the Article 50 bill which he describes as the "water torture of endless delay".

Seriously?

Any Leaver here want to try and justify Seely’s view? Water torture?

Like, literally, I’m casing my local Wetherspoons.

Fuck no deal. Seriously.

[Slant]

Yep. But that isn't, really, addressing why you think the populist concerns of individuals with axes to grind align with your concerns. E.g., as far as I'm aware, the gillet jeunes aren't rioting on behalf of the Greeks?

Populists aren't all riding the anti-EU wave. That's really just a platform for minorities and populists hijack their agenda... take AfD as an example. It started in Germany as an anti-EU platform not unlike UKIP and it was not at all successful, having led a rather insignificant existance for many years. And somehow, in the course of the migrant crisis, AfD got overrun by nazis, nazis that have been members of parties that were forbidden as unconstitutional before. And on that platform of anti-EU, anti-establishment, those nazis managed to gain votes in a meaningful manner for the first time since WW2. Does this mean they are anti-EU? Well, yes... but that's not their main agenda, it's not what nazis are about. Nazis, technically speaking, are very European. They're probably just as much pro-Europe as I am. The difference is, they prefer a Europe under German rule. You see, populists don't care about the subject or topic. They care about power. That's all they care about.

the gillet jeunes... forgive me, but even if this is new to you, I'm not impressed nor shocked at Paris burning. Paris burned a dozen or so times before. Just like it's customary in Germany to have Berlin and Hamburg burning on May 1st. And their main concerns aren't connected to the EU in particular, but more general about poverty and unemployment in France. Their actions are aimed at the French president specifically, not the EU.

A fact that is glossed over by silly British people trying to copy the movement by wearing yellow jackets and then... pretend they're basically the same platform. No, they're not. They're copycats, trying to leech some of that yellow vest publicity of the French cause.

[Iphie]

The Cooper-Letwin bill passes 315-310 meaning that the legal default in absence of a deal is no longer no-deal but how this plays out in practice is yet to be seen.

I really don't see how this changes anything. It's cute that the HoC says that it's no longer the legal default, but if there's no deal the 12th then that's it, no deal Brexit happens whether or not the HoC likes it.

[LeGin Tufnel]

Populists aren't all riding the anti-EU wave. That's really just a platform for minorities and populists hijack their agenda... take AfD as an example. It started in Germany as an anti-EU platform not unlike UKIP and it was not at all successful, having led a rather insignificant existance for many years. And somehow, in the course of the migrant crisis, AfD got overrun by nazis, nazis that have been members of parties that were forbidden as unconstitutional before. And on that platform of anti-EU, anti-establishment, those nazis managed to gain votes in a meaningful manner for the first time since WW2. Does this mean they are anti-EU? Well, yes... but that's not their main agenda, it's not what nazis are about. Nazis, technically speaking, are very European. They're probably just as much pro-Europe as I am. The difference is, they prefer a Europe under German rule. You see, populists don't care about the subject or topic. They care about power. That's all they care about.

the gillet jeunes... forgive me, but even if this is new to you, I'm not impressed nor shocked at Paris burning. Paris burned a dozen or so times before. Just like it's customary in Germany to have Berlin and Hamburg burning on May 1st. And their main concerns aren't connected to the EU in particular, but more general about poverty and unemployment in France. Their actions are aimed at the French president specifically, not the EU.

A fact that is glossed over by silly British people trying to copy the movement by wearing yellow jackets and then... pretend they're basically the same platform. No, they're not. They're copycats, trying to leech some of that yellow vest publicity of the French cause.

Ok, yep... I accept a lot of this, but the fact remains that

https://pollofpolls.eu/FR/53/europea...2019-in-france

These movements aren't inseparable.

[Slant]

Ok, yep... I accept a lot of this, but the fact remains that

https://pollofpolls.eu/FR/53/europea...2019-in-france

These movements aren't inseparable.

True, but while the "rise of the right" is a global problem, I contest that the yellow vests are a very specific and internal problem to France. Just like AfD is Germany's inner demon that we have to fight on our own. Just like Brexiteers and the shadows of the British Empire is a problem you'll have to deal with. Most of our countries are suffering from a long time of utter prosperity and success. So much so that we're having trouble explaining why we need to have something like the EU to keep on providing that framework that ensures our prosperity. That's the key to defeating this type of populism.

[zealo]

The Cooper-Letwin bill passes 315-310 meaning that the legal default in absence of a deal is no longer no-deal but how this plays out in practice is yet to be seen.

It doesn't change the default so much as just mandates Theresa May to ask the EU for another extension.

The default is still no-deal if that request gets rejected from the EU side, which it's fairly likely to be if the UK has no clear plan for what they want to do with an extension.