View Poll Results: 10 days left, what'll it be?

Voters
92. This poll is closed
  • Hard Brexit (crash out)

    45 48.91%
  • No Brexit (Remain by revoking A50)

    24 26.09%
  • Withdrawal Agreement (after a new session is called)

    0 0%
  • Extension + Withdrawal Agreement

    3 3.26%
  • Extension + Crashout

    9 9.78%
  • Extension + Remain

    11 11.96%
  1. #15441
    Quote Originally Posted by Iphie View Post
    I really don't see how this changes anything. It's cute that the HoC says that it's no longer the legal default, but if there's no deal the 12th then that's it, no deal Brexit happens whether or not the HoC likes it.
    It does and it doesn't. Technically, in the absence of a deal, we are reliant on the EU granting an extension to A50 which obviously this amendment changes nothing in this regard and it certainly does not change the fact that the EU may not grant an extension or they may attach conditions to one. However it is possible in the event of no agreed deal and no extension (or unacceptable terms attached to it) that this amendment compels the government to revoke A50 or return to the EU to request an extension for a ref. or GE.

    At this point in time it is a game of waiting to see whether or not this type of situation comes to pass.

  2. #15442
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    And a decent number of those protestors are votes for Mélenchon, not Le Pen. And there is a long and very faulty tradition of EU votes being used as protests votes by a public that sadly largely believes their votes don't matter anyway however untrue that may be.
    Yes. And the outcome (as being witnessed in the UK!) is more power to the eurosceptics.

    It's wishful thinking to assume a vote for National Rally isn't, both practically and ideologically, a vote against the EU.

  3. #15443
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    Quote Originally Posted by LeGin Tufnel View Post
    Yes. And the outcome (as being witnessed in the UK!) is more power to the eurosceptics.

    It's wishful thinking to assume a vote for National Rally isn't, both practically and ideologically, a vote against the EU.
    Eusceptics like my party nva is not against the EU. They are for more federal Europe. There are many EU movements that are sceptics at work so I can't list them all.

  4. #15444
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    Quote Originally Posted by zealo View Post
    It doesn't change the default so much as just mandates Theresa May to ask the EU for another extension.

    The default is still no-deal if that request gets rejected from the EU side, which it's fairly likely to be if the UK has no clear plan for what they want to do with an extension.
    The UK does have a clear plan for what they want to do with an extension. They plan to use it to negotiate another extension.

  5. #15445
    Quote Originally Posted by Acidbaron View Post
    Eusceptics like my party nva is not against the EU. They are for more federal Europe. There are many EU movements that are sceptics at work so I can't list them all.
    Your position is completely contradictory - ranting about xenophobes in Britain whilst supporting xenophobes in your own country and Germany.

    I am consistently amazed at the attitude of right-wingers who all think their country is special, somehow. Especially when it is Belgium, ffs.

  6. #15446
    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    The Cooper-Letwin bill passes 315-310 meaning that the legal default in absence of a deal is no longer no-deal but how this plays out in practice is yet to be seen.
    What I think it shows (I hope it shows) is that if we end up in the final throes of this and it comes down to a straight choice; no-deal or cancel Article 50, that we will cancel Article 50. Which leaves the ERG in a position where they know they can't force anything too drastic. Because if they leave only one way to avoid no-deal, Parliament will take it.
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  7. #15447
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post

    NVA is the Flanders' secessionists right? They caucus with ECR which is mostly hard eurosceptic but I guess as a party they are soft eurosceptics since like other secessionist parties they advocate they can have agency as a smaller nation through membership in the EU?
    The idea behind it is confederalism as north and south are very different beasts politically and often in deadlock when forming federal governments.

    So they are more for strong regions who answer to the EU were the EU decides somethings but not all like we oppose an EU wide minimum wage concept.

    They are not for dismantling the EU but reforming. There is also a larger story behind how they ended up in that group and not in alde.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by thathwotheral View Post
    Your position is completely contradictory - ranting about xenophobes in Britain whilst supporting xenophobes in your own country and Germany.

    I am consistently amazed at the attitude of right-wingers who all think their country is special, somehow. Especially when it is Belgium, ffs.
    Oh hai burner nice to trigger you again how goes the antisemitism apologist tour for labour?

    Also like how you just quote a post that the party are seperatists and like to go after Belgium as if that would offend me at all. Ah clueless as always nice to trigger you tho

  8. #15448
    Philip Hammond will say in his ITV interview this evening that any delay to Brexit will inevitably be long and that the UK will have to take part in European elections.

    That says to me that the government is planning for the the extension on offer to be until the end of 2020 (or later). I don't see the EU saying the UK can participate in the elections for an extension that until the end of Q2 or Q3 this year.


    Parliament has voted against Amendment 21 (Takes out the requirement for the prime minister to put the EU’s chosen extension date to MPs) by 313 votes to 304.

    Parliament has voted against Amendment 22 (Ensures that nothing in this bill rules out the government extending Article 50 in a different way) by 400 votes to 220

    Next up is an amendment limiting the extension to 22 May (the day before the European Parliament elections). Also unlikely to pass given the amount of "no" shouts.

  9. #15449
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    Quote Originally Posted by Butler Log View Post
    Philip Hammond will say in his ITV interview this evening that any delay to Brexit will inevitably be long and that the UK will have to take part in European elections.

    That says to me that the government is planning for the the extension on offer to be until the end of 2020. I don't see the EU saying the UK can participate in the elections for an extension that until the end of Q2 or Q3 this year.


    Parliament has voted against Amendment 21 (Takes out the requirement for the prime minister to put the EU’s chosen extension date to MPs) by 313 votes to 304.

    Parliament has voted against Amendment 22 (Ensures that nothing in this bill rules out the government extending Article 50 in a different way) by 400 votes to 220

    Next up is an amendment limiting the extension to 22 May (the day before the European Parliament elections). Also unlikely to pass given the amount of "no" shouts.
    Is there any movement to the idea that leaving might not be the best plan?

  10. #15450
    Quote Originally Posted by Butler Log View Post
    Philip Hammond will say in his ITV interview this evening that any delay to Brexit will inevitably be long and that the UK will have to take part in European elections.

    That says to me that the government is planning for the the extension on offer to be until the end of 2020 (or later). I don't see the EU saying the UK can participate in the elections for an extension that until the end of Q2 or Q3 this year.
    What's the purpose of such a long extension, do you know that?
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  11. #15451
    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    What's the purpose of such a long extension, do you know that?
    I don't. I suspect, however, that Government hopes the credibility of the bilateral talks between the government and the Leader of the Opposition (plus shadow cabinet) that are happening now and the acceptance of participation in the elections going along with a commitment to a longer delay (supported by both government and opposition) will persuade the EUCO to grant the extension.
    Last edited by Butler to Baby Sloths; 2019-04-03 at 09:46 PM.

  12. #15452
    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    What's the purpose of such a long extension, do you know that?
    Basically if they are going to give an extension long enough that elections would be required for the EU parliament they are not going to want some wanker who goes in throws bombs for a few weeks and leaves. If this gets extended then its going to have to be extended for a long enough time to make the whole election thing with UK people running worth the bother.

  13. #15453
    Clause 4 just got smashed. Ayes 105 noes 509

  14. #15454
    Quote Originally Posted by Butler Log View Post
    I don't. I suspect, however, that Government hopes the credibility of the bilateral talks between the government and the Leader of the Opposition (plus shadow cabinet) that are happening now and the acceptance of participation in the elections going along with a commitment to a longer delay (supported by both government and opposition) will persuade the EUCO to grant the extension.
    (Just as an aside, there is also a EU Commission, so that abbreviation isn't ideal... is it official?)

    My gut feeling says this extension isn't going to happen. Either the UK calls GE or a second referendum before April 10th (the Council summit) or it will get rejected. Certainly the referendum seems to be out of the question for the Commons. I think the Council made it quite clear that they will not even discuss an extension for any other reasons, certainly not for more of May's domestic political games, the success rates of which have been abysmal so far.
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  15. #15455
    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    (Just as an aside, there is also a EU Commission, so that abbreviation isn't ideal... is it official?)

    My gut feeling says this extension isn't going to happen. Either the UK calls GE or a second referendum before April 10th (the Council summit) or it will get rejected. Certainly the referendum seems to be out of the question for the Commons. I think the Council made it quite clear that they will not even discuss an extension for any other reasons, certainly not for more of May's domestic political games, the success rates of which have been abysmal so far.
    Donald Tusk's official twitter (the one for the office of the President of the European Council) is @eucopresident - I assumed it was.

  16. #15456
    Quote Originally Posted by kaid View Post
    Basically if they are going to give an extension long enough that elections would be required for the EU parliament they are not going to want some wanker who goes in throws bombs for a few weeks and leaves. If this gets extended then its going to have to be extended for a long enough time to make the whole election thing with UK people running worth the bother.
    There are voices, among which is the deputy chief negotiator for the EU (Verhofstadt), that quite rightly point out that the EU wouldn't do itself a favour in tolerating people like Farage much longer if the point of this whole debacle is for them to leave anyway. I don't see it happening. On April 10th, you'll see another Salzburg, this time a final one. I'm pretty sure of it. Macron isn't a happy bunny at all at the moment.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Butler Log View Post
    Donald Tusk's official twitter is @eucopresident - I assumed it was.
    It may be, I wasn't aware of it. It is an ambiguous abbreviation, but fuck knows what they do in Brussels... haha.
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  17. #15457
    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    It may be, I wasn't aware of it. It is an ambiguous abbreviation, but fuck knows what they do in Brussels... haha.
    Knowing the EU, it probably went through 5 deliberating committees and bureaucrats' offices before it was decided, so maybe?

    Bill passes to second reading by 313 to 312. Majority of one.
    Last edited by Butler to Baby Sloths; 2019-04-03 at 10:27 PM.

  18. #15458
    Quote Originally Posted by Butler Log View Post
    Knowing the EU, it probably went through 5 deliberating committees and bureaucrats' offices before it was decided, so maybe?

    Bill passes to second reading by 313 to 312. Majority of one.
    So... this is the one that instructs the PM to ask for an extension? Oh nevermind, it's another vote to prevent no-deal. This is so confusing.
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  19. #15459
    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    So... this is the one that instructs the PM to ask for an extension? Oh nevermind, it's another vote to prevent no-deal. This is so confusing.
    It would formally remove the "leaving date" from the Withdrawal Act and require the PM to ask for an extension if no deal is reached, if I understand the text correctly.
    Last edited by Butler to Baby Sloths; 2019-04-03 at 10:46 PM.

  20. #15460
    Quote Originally Posted by Butler Log View Post
    It would formally remove the "leaving date" from the Withdrawal Act and require the PM to ask for an extension if no deal is reached, if I understand the text correctly.
    Ah, ok so I got the gist of it correctly from the bits and pieces I saw on the livestream. Well, well, the May/Corbyn talks haven't been fruitful. It's only 6 days (until the summit, i.e. last date to ask the EU). They better start becoming constructive.
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