Immigration System May Have Reached a Breaking Point

[Ozyorkbourne]

We’d them await your imminent execution by hanging for violating international law.
I’d suggest you get a spiritual advisor, but you’ve made no apologies for wanting to murder all of them as well.

Watch out for that angry letter you get for breaking 'international law'. You might get a paper cut, but that's about it.

[Logwyn]

Wasn't there a time when there were no borders really and people just went where they pleased?

[Ozyorkbourne]

Why do people always neglect the other half of the average person. Everyone going on about how they take jobs, lower wages, take taxes, etc. No one ever mentions the consumption they bring. Are some people against population growth in general because that's what immigration brings to our country in general, more bodies. More bodies that work, eat, drive, buy clothes, etc. You will have the few deadbeats and also complete criminals that enter as well, just as we have them here that are native born.

I can't sympathize with the immigration system. It's a massive mess. We have thousands coming in through the border and via plane yet only a handful of immigration courts that are backed 24/7 in this country...it needs an organizational overhaul.

Their consumption is negated by money sent out of the country and the lowering of wages (or reduced rate of increase), which strains living costs when things like food and rent don't get cheaper in turn. You vastly overstate the spending power of a migrant who enters a country with their clothes and a backpack.

[Logwyn]

Cross the border, you are an America citizen.

Just make everyone an American.....conqueror the world!

[Ozyorkbourne]

Wasn't there a time when there were no borders really and people just went where they pleased?

Yeah about 10,000-12,000 years ago before settling and agriculture became a thing, when as a species we were tribal hunters. But when people went where they pleased they also ended up fighting and killing, because they were tribes competing for resources.

[dippinsawse]

You do not understand the topic. Anywhere in the world you need to seek asylum in the first viable country you enter. THis is not the case with the US if you enter through the southern border.

The figures I quoted are for asylum seekers for Honduras 2017

Reread my comment. I literally said that I was specifically referring to international agreements that require us to process asylum seekers and that the US goes above and beyond what it is required to do to provide people with asylum even though they don't actually meet the criteria. I don't understand how this was not made clear to you. Yes, we can and do give asylum to people who don't qualify, we are allowed to let whoever we want into our country even if we don't have to. Just because we have judges who decide to give asylum to people that are coached by NGO's to say they were afraid of gangs and the judge feels bad for the person and gives them asylum it doesn't mean those people have legitimate claims to asylum. And no, the US does not have separate laws on asylum, we just leave things more open to judges to arbitrate and give asylum to people based on interpretation of their situations. We are not any more or less required according to our laws to let people and give them asylum.

I don't know where you got your info that 60 percent of hondurans were rejected in 2017. 2017 was the highest rejection rate year in a decade and that is increasing even more since then.

https://trac.syr.edu/immigration/reports/491/

This shows that rejection rates are increasing and at no point would match what you say overall. Meanwhile if you look lower down it includes rates from 2012 to 2017 which if anything would pad the numbers in your favor and yet even then the rejection rate for honduras in that period was 78 percent. You must be pulling your numbers out of your ass or received faulty information.

[Tumble]

I think it's about time the USA over threw all these shitty SA countries and just made the whole thing USA, then we can do what we want with the gangs and drug lords. Send in the military and wipe them out. If it's so shit down there that we have to take in a million refugees a year, and those are the lucky ones, we should just go back to invade and conquer. Leave the middle east alone and take care of the shit thats on our own borders right now.

[NED funded]

Natives and immigrants are both human last time I checked and operate through the same rules of economics of supply and demand. Natives will not do that job at that price point. New immigrants who cant read or speak english will. This country has not seen wage growth until now. That has been accomplished because of record unemployment making your labor valued more. Adding more people that will do the job at a lower price point brings down wages. Natives need higher wages specifically people of color.

If undocummented immigrants are performing jobs that natives wont for whatever reasons (wages in this case) how is an influx that mostly goes to sectors that natives dont work in negatively affect natives? I go back, do you compete with the wage of your local store clerk?

And this country has seen wage growth for quite a while, its mostly other expenses that eat it up. (Healthcare and housing) Which is another topic and better adressed via other programs.

[Kokolums]

Ironically, experts agree this surge is caused by right wing rhetoric leading them to believe they need to come now or they may not get in at all. Even more ironically, the way they're coming would be in no way impacted by a wall, because they're turning themselves in and looking for asylum.

If the right wing really wants to fix the problem, they need to fix the countries that are being devastated by cartels and dictatorships, not build walls. The right wing will bitch about giving foreign aid, the left wing will bitch about military action in other countries, but honestly, both need to happen.

I think if you convince the right wing that the wall doesn't work, their next move will be to declare war with Mexico (and several other central and south american countries) on the grounds that this is an invasion. They won't give foreign aid.

[Skroe]

Yeah we are.

No. You aren't. And the 1% you're getting through the military construction budget doesn't count. Because that's a tiny stretch in a small area and the part of the law that allows the DoD to reprogram funds is out of the next budget as a consequence.

Trump used his one inventory item on it.

The wall is dead and its never coming back.

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And $15 an hour wage!!!! Guess what shit will cost when you get what you want.

We can afford it.

[NED funded]

Who the fuck do you think pays for it when the immigrants work poverty wage jobs, and can't afford basic needs because of it?

THE OTHER NATIVES.

What a stupid argument. The agriculture section won't fucking pay people decent wages, so the solution? Bring in desperate people to compete. Yeah, great fucking idea.

The people who win are the business owners, who can make more profit and pay less in wages.

Imagine supporting this.

Illegal immigrants arent elligible for welfare.....

Not sure why you bring it up. And we know for a fact that removing illegal immigrants doesnt actually raise the wages as employers just automate or find other ways to cut corners by producing less.

The people who win are also the immigrants that see a substantial increase in their income that is sent to their families.

Why do you wish to deprive poor people from this opportunities? Do you want poor mexican families to starve Boomzy? Imagine supporting that /s

[Skroe]

Cool we can bring more people in to compete for low wage jobs, and then tax them to shit to pay for your endless empire-building wars, Skroe.

CAN'T WAIT.

Want less people competing for low wage jobs? Increase spending on education and job training. Get them out of them.

And I was thinking more along the lines of sustaining existing entitlements, because, you know, they aren't designed to be permanently sustainable right now, in no small part due to tax base limitations.

Look, I'm not going to need Social Security when I retire, so it doesn't effect me. I'm paying into something I'm never going to use. So if you folks who will use it want to keep out new taxpayers who will pay into it and make sure you actually get $1 out for $1 you put in, as opposed to 65 cents, you're actually making your own bed. Just keep that in mind.

The only way you get that $1 back is if you tax more now and expand the workforce. Otherwise you're boned. I'm not, because I won't need SS. You are. So pardon me for actually thinking about how the numbers work and not wanting to see the scourge of elderly poverty return to America in a way it hasn't since the Great Depression.

[bagelmanman]

Funny as I can drive 20 mins and see the cranes literally building the wall....weird.

[Skroe]

Your trump derangement syndrome is showing.

TDS isn't a thing. It's an excuse for weak people of low standards and low morals to let themselves off the hook when Americans of higher standards and morals express outrage at the abuses of our system, our norms and institutions Individual-1 commits every day.

I have a question: are you Trumpkins just tempting fate that one of your number doesn't assault Rep. Ilhan Omar? Shen's an idiot who is wrong about everything, but that's where Trump's talk is going to end up (to offer an example), while you pretend that TDS is our affliction. One of your kind is going to go after her, and it's going to be horrible, and you will mass wash your hands of it, even though us TDS people have been saying "he must do not do this sort of thing".

Your weakness is going to get people hurt.

-Sincerely, someone who believes Bush Derangement Syndrome was a thing and argued passionately about that for years.

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Wow there is so much there to unpack. You really are like Ben Shapiro. Right down to the douchey and condescending shitting on anyone who doesn't agree with you.

Well for one considering your constant anger and the fact you are male, it is much more likely you die from a stroke or heart attack before you even get to the age of retirement. Luckily death evens us all out.

Enjoy that money though.

Oh sorry did I use my outdoor voice? I mean you're the one that opened with "pay for your endless empire-building wars". You said that. Nobody made you say it. You chose to.

I got a spoiler for your Boomzy. Come close, I'll whisper it.

Those are going to happen anyway.

Compared to the cost of healthcare for 330 million people, the cost of a war is chump change. Really. It's basically a hobby. This is a country whose Medicare spending rises at 7.5% per year and Medicare by 5.5%, but Defense about 2-3%.

Have you seen the 2018, 2019 and draft 2020 budget? Democrats and Republicans are building a military that'll come full blossom around 2027 that would make Reagan blush.

So yes. This is happening. Without one more immigrant on our soil. It's bought and paid for. Too bad. So sad.

But no, my "endless empire-building wars" are not my concern in expanding the workforce. I am concerned about future American economic growth, and the ability of America to pay it's bills on chiefly entitlements. Because long before growing entitlement spending eats up the Defense Department, it'll rip its way through discretionary spending... namely things that mostly benefit the poor or offer culture and advancement to our society.

Or i'll put this simply: if you think there should be generous college loans for underprivileged kids 30 years from now, you'll let immigrants in, because the a growing tax base that grows with spending can sustain amounts at relative levels. You shrink the tax base, and we borrow more and cut. And that will not hurt people like me, period.

Yes, I have a rep as "Mr. Warhawk", but I got news for you: I consider the fact that the richest country in human history has poverty and homelessness (in particular homelessness) a far bigger deal than any aircraft carrier of fighter. I talk about missiles because folks find them interesting and I have a knack for technical explanations. But there is zero point in defending the liberal international order if more and more Americans sleep on the street. We have to finance our government to do both.

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What do you think should be done about it, what would you do to fix the problem?

I would let them all in and resettle them. I would start of programs to get them on the path to being productive citizens and taxpayers.

As for the country's their coming from, I'd spend big to help anti-corruption, counter-gang, counter-narcotics and economic development in the region.

If America wants to truly see illegal immigration end, help make all of Central America north of the Darien gap as economically developed as Poland or better.

And that includes Cuba too, unless MAGA Americans are so strategy stupid they're inclined to give China a new best friend in the Caribbean, 90 miles from Miami.

Remember the guiding rule of the 21st century: if America doesn't solve problems, China will, and the consequences for America when they do will be high.

Mexico for example, has something called the China card. If you're not afraid, you should be. Because they aren't the only one with the card, and China would very much like a naval port in Central or South America. Particularly Nicaragua.

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Alternatively: let no one else in, at all. Southern or northern border.

Labor becomes more dear= upward pressure on American's wages.

But you don't give a flip about blue-collar Americans, do you?

Your ongoing complicated relationship with object permanence is a sight to behold.

Just because cheap labor isn't within an arbitrary line on the map called a border doesn't at all mean that American labor will be insulated by it.

Companies will just move more labor to where the cheap labor is. And you can say whatever the hell you want about regulating that, but it's been nothing but talk for decades, and there is no reason to think it'll change.

You don't want to have a shit job in America: get educated. America needs to spend more money on education and job training A lot more.

It's a fucking riot some subset of Americans are so intent on protecting the EXISTENCE of the lower end, when we should instead be focused on approaches to raise the people who would be going for those jobs into better paying, more sustainable careers.

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Which is exactly what we need all need to prepare for automation and loss of jobs. Less people. Good thing we have a natural decline in births!

That being said, Trump is rich, and all rich people WANT. REALLY WANT. immigrants to work for them super cheap and keep wages low.
He says otherwise to get votes. But all rich people and corporations want immigrants. It is a huge capitalist tool

Politicians say crap to get votes. But above all he is businessman and rich. So he needs/wants immigrants. He doesn't really want a wall. That is why he waited for democrats to have the house before he asked for wall money (not that he would get the money before, but now he has an excuse)

Let me say something as a robiticist by profession and training. Its hilarious seeing people who know nothing about robotics talk about automation. It's obnoxious as hell.

Take it from an actual Roboticist with years of experience, who works at a company whose entire purpose is designing robots of various types for largely research purposes. This is my life. I went to school for this shit. I work in this shit.

Your jobs are safe.
The jobs of your children are safe.
The job of your granchildren are safe.

If you think automation is going to be of such capability it'll justify UBI, or lead to societal upheaval as America faces double digit unemployment, you're wrong.

I hate people talking about Robotics on online message boards (to be perfectly clear, not referring to your post) because so much of it is utter nonsense and absolute garbage. It's people repeating people repeating people. Most of it is lies promulgated people who didn't understand - and often don't care to understand - the state of the field and where it is going.

You know when this really got worse? When the idea of Universal Basic Income started getting kicked around. The people politically in favor of that - their right - needed a motivator. The motivator was the scarcity of work due to automation. But it is not the only one. It's now been perverted into an excuse by immigration opponents, that want to pretend that immigrants are eating up a shrinking portion of jobs, thanks to automation.

Professionally it makes me sick.

Here's the facts. Sure. On a production line, in a factory, robots are getting every better and more capable. It takes a fraction of the number of people to produce a car today compared to 30 years ago. Consumer goods are of course, increasingly robotically produced. But here's the fun part, who does that impact the most? China and South Asia, Because that is where things are produced. The Western World, where we live, the Service industry makes up the overwhelming majority of employers, and for the most part, for all we talk about big firms hiring 2000 people and stuff like that, it is small business that rules.

https://www.sba.gov/sites/default/fi..._Sept_2012.pdf

In the US, Small Businesses with less than 500 employees, represented 99.7% of all firms, 64% of job creation, and 98% of firms that export goods.
https://www.sba.gov/sites/default/fi...ted_States.pdf



Or to put this simply, in the US, small business service sector jobs are where Americans work more than any place else.

So here's why the robotics argument is trash and will remain trash for most of the 21st century. Consider the tasks that people in the service sector do. Most of them are specialized, and a human being can be inexpensively trained and comparatively inexpensively compensated to provide it.

Now let's talk robotics. Most robots are extremely expensive robots that do what I like to call "stupid pet tricks"., They can do 1 or 2 things really well, in a controlled environment. Like folding sheets. Or playing the piano. Or playing playing ping pong.

What would it take to develop an generic robot that can be used outside of controlled conditions, and easily programmed by its owner to execute a diverse number of tasks? I can't even give you a number. It is billions upon billions of dollars, and decades of development. A trained electrician can, using their eyes, brains and body, figure out how to solve an electrical issue in almost any house based on experience. A robot could never do that Consider the complexity of building a house. A contractor has to get into tight spaces, do things at weird angles, think abstracting and creatively to accomplish the task. Robots cannot do that and will not do that anytime in the years or decades to come. Maybe in the 22nd century. Not soon.

I'm sick to death of the hyperactivity by common folk about my field. They don't understand it and they don't care to understand it. They want to believe in a future that is coming without living through the painful, agonizingly slow work of earning it. It's more faith than science. It's modern day paganism... the Cult of the Inevitable March of Science, delivering a better world soon! They get wow'd by some stupid pet trick robot on YouTube and generalize, but are so far removed from the actual exciting stuff going on my my field, because they aren't specialists and don't understand. One of my earliest career experiences was meeting with Marvin Minsky as a 19 year old at the MIT media lab, around 2002. And he told me then that AI makes more progress in one year than Robotics in 10 (and yes they are different), and he's proven, in my career over the subsequent half of my life, to be absolutely on point. Except in pockets (like the one I work in, swarm robotics), the field is agonizingly slow, underfunded and parochial.

So when do we start worrying about automation's large scale effect on Western employment? When Toyota produces a $30,000 durable, intelligent, omni-skilled, trainable robot that can do hundreds of service-sector jobs in non-controlled conditions. Or in other words, the 22nd century. Totally not joking. And until that point, hiring and paying workers a wage will be cheaper and easier. Probably after that point too.

You want to know why NASA's timeline to going back to the Moon or Mars keeps getting pushed further into the future? Or why the Singularity's date keeps drifting a decade ahead? Or why truly intelligent machines haven't arrived despite it being 2018? Because in the real world, science and engineer is hard, and it is expensive and everything is earned slowly and painfully. The world we die in, 50 years from now, will still look much like the world today. Computers will be better, smaller, faster and smarter. Cars will be more efficient. Communication methods will change. Forms of entertainment will change. But houses will still be made out of stone and wood, the road will still be made of asphalt, bridges will still be made of steel and and Americans will still have to file taxes every April 15th. And paper will still be an option.

[NED funded]

Wow, those are some really shit arguments you have there Skroe.

So tell me, how much of our budget does defense spending account for, bud? Surely because it's a "hobby" the percentage is low right?



Oh wow, look at that, you're a fucking liar.

Secondly, saying the spending "rises" by 2-3% per year to make it sound low is a neat trick, but it doesn't really fool me. 2-3% year over year is BILLIONS OF DOLLARS.

Let's go ahead and look at this chart again too for the hell of it

Why are you using discretionary spending instead of non-discretionary, which includes medicare and social security?

Dishonesty is the name of the game with anti-immigration types.

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Pay "natives" better. Far better. Businesses refuse to do that?

Regulate the hell out of them until they bleed.

Ok but that doesnt have to do with anything that I just said.

[bagelmanman]

Crazy how much TDS affects certain people...

[Stormspellz]

What do you think should be done about it, what would you do to fix the problem?

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So everyone interviewed saying the system in trouble is lying? You know more than the people who actually deal with the situation?

the system is broken on purpose as its the "hey government doesn't work *proceeds to break it*, see what did I say" go to play book of republicans.

[NED funded]

....Because defense spending is discretionary?

What?

That's like asking why I called an apple a fruit instead of food.

I mean I can link the entire budget if you want, it doesn't really make it look less absurd.

The point of Skroe is that spending on medicare is much larger and rising faster than defense spending.

Linking discretionary spending doesnt prove anything.

[Mister Cheese]

TDS doesn't exist they say.

Okay.

[Stormspellz]

Crazy how much TDS affects certain people...

Righ!? That TDS that lets them ignore every corruption, lie, and failure as they always stick with team gop/trump.

TDS doesn't exist they say.

Okay.

Oh look its another link literally no one to show the "libs" are nuts, while on the flip side liberals will quote Trump, elected officials, or other people of name as they say / do ridiculous things; bonus points for trying to argue "both sides are the same"