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  1. #1

    Wow Realm Population

    People have recently been discussing WoW population in one of the big threads, and in general, this is an often discussed topic.

    I want to post a new site which hasn't been around before, which is relevant to that:

    https://www.wowrealmpopulation.com/

    They use a combination of one of the traditional approaches = seeded armory scans (you first seed your database with names of characters / guilds on each server, then you do armory requests for these characters and guilds, this gets you the names of new characters and guilds, and then you just do this periodically and the scans keep the database up to date), as well as something new = auction house scans (which quickly gets you tons of names of characters and guilds as well, a clever thing to do, because it is very fast and picks up tons of activity).

    They have been doing it for some time, I watched them for the last year or so, their numbers were at first sporadic, then started becoming stable and useful wrt various big server groups, then wrt regions, and 6 months or so ago they felt confident enough to start reporting totals per region. Their totals qualitatively matched all important tendencies reported / seen on other sites, so I think we can now count this new site in as reasonably accurate.

    So, what they report (for totals, scroll down):

    EU characters in database: 3 759 008 of which 1 390 493 is currently considered being active within 2 week period.
    US characters in database: 2 983 430 of which 1 091 575 is currently considered being active within 2 week period.

    The definition of "active" character is:

    "Active character: a character that has performed any of the following activities within 14 days since it was last seen: gained levels, looted something notable (my remark: to appear in the API log, that log skips loot that it does not think is notable in order to be manageable), made a honorable kill, changed or transmogged gear or placed something in the Auction House."

    So, according to the site, US + EU currently have 2.5 million *characters* active. Given that this includes alts and that the period for doing something notable is fairly big (two weeks) and that something notable includes utterly trivial things like placing something onto the AH (covers tons of max-levels) or gaining a level (covers all of leveling chars), the number of active players is perhaps something like 1/2 or 1/3 of that -- although this is where we can make big errors, it is unclear what the coefficient for translating character counts into player counts should roughly be.

    This misses China. They have some tracking for Taiwan (and Korea), but that's different (and small comparably).

    In any case, the usual roster of warcraftrealms + wowprogress + arenatrackers got a new member, and it's good.

    Please note that I am not saying that the game is dying or whatever. To clarify, it's rather obvious that BFA is doing terribly, and it has been obvious before. But 8.2 - if they really try - can perhaps stabilize things. And if they really try in 8.2, then who knows what's next, maybe they'll continue trying. This post is there simply to inform others interested in population figures / stats of a relatively new site that wasn't on the horizon before.
    Last edited by rda; 2019-04-15 at 03:28 PM.

  2. #2
    Obviously just a best guess, as was this post:

    https://www.reddit.com/r/wow/comment..._google_trend/

    but sure, 3-4 million seems like a reasonable estimate. That's 3/4 of a billion dollars per year in subscriptions alone, and we know microtransactions and tokens are profitable as well. That's why ActiBlizzard is refocusing on WoW as it has much more lasting retention than their other franchises like Overwatch, which has been largely eclipsed by the flavor of the month, Battle Royales.

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by Schizoide View Post
    ... but sure, 3-4 million seems like a reasonable estimate. That's 3/4 of a billion dollars per year in subscriptions alone, ...
    I think you are saying that's 3-4 million players. The site is talking about 2.5 million active *characters*, not players. We have to divide the number, just not sure by how much, because people have alts. Like bank ones (which are going to be captured, because they post things on the AH, and that's captured).

  4. #4
    Warchief Gungnir's Avatar
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    Seems fairly accurate.
    China has historically had twice the amount of players as EU and US, so a combined 7mil characters seems reasonable.
    That's likely around 3 - 4 million players as very, VERY few people have only one character they log on.

  5. #5
    People have alts, but the site can't capture every account either. They're all just at best guesses. Based on the machine learning extrapolation, we're probably under 2 million subscribers right now.

    The OP's site does not include China, just Taiwan and Korea, but the official numbers and machine learning extrapolations did include China.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Gungnir View Post
    Seems fairly accurate.
    China has historically had twice the amount of players as EU and US, so a combined 7mil characters seems reasonable.
    That's likely around 3 - 4 million players as very, VERY few people have only one character they log on.
    This seems like a very realistic guess

  7. #7
    I have 9 active alts, so ... and WoW is not popular at all in China so ... maybe < 1M

  8. #8
    All just guesses, anyway. All we actually know is Legion revitalized the game and BFA, after its initial launch window, did not. But we can't put numbers to it with even rough accuracy.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Schizoide View Post
    People have alts, but the site can't capture every account either. They're all just at best guesses. Based on the machine learning extrapolation, we're probably under 2 million subscribers right now.

    The OP's site does not include China, just Taiwan and Korea, but the official numbers and machine learning extrapolations did include China.
    Regarding that particular machine learning incident - I am not high on it, this is a misuse of statistics (here's an explanation), but in the end it also arrives at about the same result as everyone else (and that's unsurprising and also has a statistical explanation).

    So, wrt to the site in the first post of this thread: I guess, that's one more source showing what we already knew from a new angle, yes.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by rda View Post
    People have recently been discussing WoW population in one of the big threads, and in general, this is an often discussed topic.

    I want to post a new site which hasn't been around before, which is relevant to that:

    https://www.wowrealmpopulation.com/

    They use a combination of one of the traditional approaches = seeded armory scans (you first seed your database with names of characters / guilds on each server, then you do armory requests for these characters and guilds, this gets you the names of new characters and guilds, and then you just do this periodically and the scans keep the database up to date), as well as something new = auction house scans (which quickly gets you tons of names of characters and guilds as well, a clever thing to do, because it is very fast and picks up tons of activity).

    They have been doing it for some time, I watched them for the last year or so, their numbers were at first sporadic, then started becoming stable and useful wrt various big server groups, then wrt regions, and 6 months or so ago they felt confident enough to start reporting totals per region. Their totals qualitatively matched all important tendencies reported / seen on other sites, so I think we can now count this new site in as reasonably accurate.

    So, what they report (for totals, scroll down):

    EU characters in database: 3 759 008 of which 1 390 493 is currently considered being active within 2 week period.
    US characters in database: 2 983 430 of which 1 091 575 is currently considered being active within 2 week period.

    The definition of "active" character is:

    "Active character: a character that has performed any of the following activities within 14 days since it was last seen: gained levels, looted something notable (my remark: to appear in the API log, that log skips loot that it does not think is notable in order to be manageable), made a honorable kill, changed or transmogged gear or placed something in the Auction House."

    So, according to the site, US + EU currently have 2.5 million *characters* active. Given that this includes alts and that the period for doing something notable is fairly big (two weeks) and that something notable includes utterly trivial things like placing something onto the AH (covers tons of max-levels) or gaining a level (covers all of leveling chars), the number of active players is perhaps something like 1/2 or 1/3 of that -- although this is where we can make big errors, it is unclear what the coefficient for translating character counts into player counts should roughly be.

    This misses China. They have some tracking for Taiwan (and Korea), but that's different (and small comparably).

    In any case, the usual roster of warcraftrealms + wowprogress + arenatrackers got a new member, and it's good.

    Please note that I am not saying that the game is dying or whatever. To clarify, it's rather obvious that BFA is doing terribly, and it has been obvious before. But 8.2 - if they really try - can perhaps stabilize things. And if they really try in 8.2, then who knows what's next, maybe they'll continue trying. This post is there simply to inform others interested in population figures / stats of a relatively new site that wasn't on the horizon before.
    To be honest this website is garbage. The data itself that it contains might be amazing, but the way it gets presented is just stupid. I feel like I have to scroll for ages and there isn't anywehere a page where I can get all EU realms listed with all kinds of statistics that I can look at, like on realmpop.com

  11. #11
    The Insane Aeula's Avatar
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    I reckon 3-4 million subs sounds about right. Maybe as low as 2 million. I wonder how many subs are people who forgot to cancel their subs and have been paying for the game for years without realising it...

    That said, I was active (By the standards of the study) on all 30ish of my characters before my sub expired two days back. So it could be much less. Though I’d be surprised.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ohmmega View Post
    I have 9 active alts, so ... and WoW is not popular at all in China so ... maybe < 1M
    WoW is insanely popular in China, just look at how well the movie did there compared to the west. I’d expect double the EU/US numbers from Asia.

  12. #12
    The Undying Lochton's Avatar
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    In the end, this is all guesses and theories, nothing solid and with fact.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Ohmmega View Post
    I have 9 active alts, so ... and WoW is not popular at all in China so ... maybe < 1M
    It what?

    China was the best selling country for the movie even.
    FOMO: "Fear Of Missing Out", also commonly known as people with a mental issue of managing time and activities, many expecting others to fit into their schedule so they don't miss out on things to come. If FOMO becomes a problem for you, do seek help, it can be a very unhealthy lifestyle..

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Greyscale View Post
    My analysis is that WoW has some players.
    Your analysis is the most correct one. We should go with that.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Gungnir View Post
    Seems fairly accurate.
    China has historically had twice the amount of players as EU and US, so a combined 7mil characters seems reasonable.
    That's likely around 3 - 4 million players as very, VERY few people have only one character they log on.
    Except China is punishing Video game players now , and WOW is on a list there. China is not Blizzards saving grace any more

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Gehco View Post
    In the end, this is all guesses and theories, nothing solid and with fact.

    - - - Updated - - -



    It what?

    China was the best selling country for the movie even.
    That was before the Social Credit program starting
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  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Gungnir View Post
    Seems fairly accurate.
    China has historically had twice the amount of players as EU and US, so a combined 7mil characters seems reasonable.
    That's likely around 3 - 4 million players as very, VERY few people have only one character they log on.
    If this game had more subs then WoD I promise you as a stock trader ATVI would be shouting that crap from the mountain top on investor calls.

  16. #16
    The Undying Lochton's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dystemper View Post
    Except China is punishing Video game players now , and WOW is on a list there. China is not Blizzards saving grace any more

    - - - Updated - - -



    That was before the Social Credit program starting
    The social credit doesn't matter if your credit is already in good standing to keep your connection open.
    FOMO: "Fear Of Missing Out", also commonly known as people with a mental issue of managing time and activities, many expecting others to fit into their schedule so they don't miss out on things to come. If FOMO becomes a problem for you, do seek help, it can be a very unhealthy lifestyle..

  17. #17
    I am Murloc! crakerjack's Avatar
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    BFA's issue is that it lacks meaningful content. Sure there's "Content" but it's nothing the average player cares for. How often have you seen someone get excited to farm island expeditions? How about farming warfronts? How fun is it to farm WQ's? If you're not doing those 3, then you're doing M+, raiding or old legacy content. The population is thinning out because there just isn't enough meaningful content to keep people engaged. What is there to love about BFA aside from BoD?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Well I'd assume that the average player has more than 5 alts. I'm guessing this because if someone still plays this game and doesn't have some grudge against it, chances are they're heavily involved w/ xmog/mount farming which is helps to have ample amounts of alts. I personally have 12 alts I cycle through and this week I went ahead and did atleast 1 timewalking on each of them for the 500 badges.
    Most likely the wisest Enhancement Shaman.

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Gehco View Post
    The social credit doesn't matter if your credit is already in good standing to keep your connection open.
    If you play games more then a a hour a day, it kills your standing . Pretty fast way to not be able to buy goods and services. As it stands now, if you play video games, post on social media or buy "frivolous things" like games , in game purchases etc then you get punished. Once of the punishments is getting your internet throttled way way way back. another is not being allowed public transportation like buses and trains . and this is only with the system not 100% in place, When it goes nation wide in 2020 is where you will see the massive nagative impact on the video game industry . It can potentially kill the mobile phone game business
    Last edited by Dystemper; 2019-04-15 at 08:30 PM.
    Non nobis Domine, non nobis, sed nomini tuo da gloriam

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by rda View Post
    People have recently been discussing WoW population in one of the big threads, and in general, this is an often discussed topic.

    I want to post a new site which hasn't been around before, which is relevant to that:

    https://www.wowrealmpopulation.com/

    They use a combination of one of the traditional approaches = seeded armory scans (you first seed your database with names of characters / guilds on each server, then you do armory requests for these characters and guilds, this gets you the names of new characters and guilds, and then you just do this periodically and the scans keep the database up to date), as well as something new = auction house scans (which quickly gets you tons of names of characters and guilds as well, a clever thing to do, because it is very fast and picks up tons of activity).

    They have been doing it for some time, I watched them for the last year or so, their numbers were at first sporadic, then started becoming stable and useful wrt various big server groups, then wrt regions, and 6 months or so ago they felt confident enough to start reporting totals per region. Their totals qualitatively matched all important tendencies reported / seen on other sites, so I think we can now count this new site in as reasonably accurate.

    So, what they report (for totals, scroll down):

    EU characters in database: 3 759 008 of which 1 390 493 is currently considered being active within 2 week period.
    US characters in database: 2 983 430 of which 1 091 575 is currently considered being active within 2 week period.

    The definition of "active" character is:

    "Active character: a character that has performed any of the following activities within 14 days since it was last seen: gained levels, looted something notable (my remark: to appear in the API log, that log skips loot that it does not think is notable in order to be manageable), made a honorable kill, changed or transmogged gear or placed something in the Auction House."

    So, according to the site, US + EU currently have 2.5 million *characters* active. Given that this includes alts and that the period for doing something notable is fairly big (two weeks) and that something notable includes utterly trivial things like placing something onto the AH (covers tons of max-levels) or gaining a level (covers all of leveling chars), the number of active players is perhaps something like 1/2 or 1/3 of that -- although this is where we can make big errors, it is unclear what the coefficient for translating character counts into player counts should roughly be.

    This misses China. They have some tracking for Taiwan (and Korea), but that's different (and small comparably).

    In any case, the usual roster of warcraftrealms + wowprogress + arenatrackers got a new member, and it's good.

    Please note that I am not saying that the game is dying or whatever. To clarify, it's rather obvious that BFA is doing terribly, and it has been obvious before. But 8.2 - if they really try - can perhaps stabilize things. And if they really try in 8.2, then who knows what's next, maybe they'll continue trying. This post is there simply to inform others interested in population figures / stats of a relatively new site that wasn't on the horizon before.
    No clue how they come up with their data (I understand you said they have to have guilds/players seeded), but the realm information for my server couldn't be more wrong.... Some of the biggest, most active, most progressed guilds aren't listed as active at all and the top HK guy on the server isn't listed... And I know he's active because he heads up the RBG group I play with..

    My guess is that if people have to forcibly search for their guild/character to initiate the process then it's likely a huge number of guilds and players are absent.
    Last edited by Haloswin; 2019-04-15 at 08:30 PM.

  20. #20
    Considering that WEST is sitting around 1M or less subs, seems pretty accurate.

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