[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[Slant]

Debatable.

GE now is a win for Labour.

I think it's cute that he thinks a party with the sole program item: "Leave the EU." is electable to run a country. I mean, even if they implement their thing on day 1, what is their plan for the remainder of the term? What was it, 4 or 5 years in the UK?

Kinda demonstrates the colossal lack of a perspective this sociopath has.

[Pann]

Debatable.

GE now is a win for Labour.

I don't see this happening to be honest as I would say that the prospect of a GE is at best slim.

However the issue I see with Labour, in the event of a shock election being called, is that they have not gained any ground and at best you could say that they have stood still (some polls showing minor losses) whilst the Cons have seen pro-Brexit voters put their weight behind the pro-Brexit parties. Whilst this would in theory be enough to see a Corbyn government in No. 10 it is worth noting that in the event of a GE Lab would have to make their Brexit policy clear and they would have to pick a side to support which is likely to see some of their pro/anti-Brexit voters splinter off to other parties depending on which side they come down on.

I think if an election was to be held the most likely outcome would be a hung parliament.

[Huehuecoyotl]

Calamari style

<Boris Johnson wins Tory leadership contest>

<Puts to the commons as a vote of confidence to leave the EU with no deal>

<Vote fails - General election called.>

<Brexit party storms to power with Labour and Conservatives gone in electoral oblivion.>

Brexit party storms to power? Please, talk me through how your ~27% support translates to storming to power. I could do with a laugh. Seeing the grinding of your cognitive abilities in writing would be an insight for all of us on this thread.

[dribbles]

Brexit party storms to power? Please, talk me through how your ~27% support translates to storming to power. I could do with a laugh. Seeing the grinding of your cognitive abilities in writing would be an insight for all of us on this thread.

27% support in little more than one week. Perhaps you don't think this is an extinction level event for the Tory party, plenty of realists do. Now imagine 3 out of 5 Tory voters. who are less invested than Tory members, transfer their votes to the Brexit party. Unbelievable? Let's see...

Three out of five Party members will vote for the Brexit Party in European elections.

https://www.conservativehome.com/the...elections.html

What about...

40% of Tory councillors back Nigel Farage's new party as devastating poll shows scale of rebellion and THREE QUARTERS want Theresa May to resign

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...new-party.html

So the Brexit party have gone this past week for the low hanging Tory fruit. Next week it'll be targeting the Labour party, you can google yourself what Tom Watson thinks of that. No wonder he is worried, his constituency voted almost 70% to leave...

[Butler to Baby Sloths]

27% support in little more than one week. Perhaps you don't think this is an extinction level event for the Tory party, plenty of realists do. Now imagine 3 out of 5 Tory voters. who are less invested than Tory members, transfer their votes to the Brexit party. Unbelievable? Let's see...

Three out of five Party members will vote for the Brexit Party in European elections.

Because the Tory candidates are refusing to stand.

[JohnBrown1917]

So Farage is splitting the conservative vote even further? That only sounds good to Labour with how the UK system works.

[Butler to Baby Sloths]

So Farage is splitting the conservative vote even further? That only sounds good to Labour with how the UK system works.

Yeah, he'll take the votes from the Tories that are keeping the seats from going Labour, Lib Dem or (from the next GE) Change UK.

Of course, this is that narcissistic bastard's only way to stay relevant. If the UK ACTUALLY leaves the EU, that's his TV career and political life over. The best thing for his career is for the UK to be stuck in limbo over leaving. Otherwise he's stuffed. The TV appearances will dry up, his MEP salary goes away, presumably his MEP pension goes away, all those taxpayer funded flights to the USA, the champagne and caviar receptions, his newspaper columns. All gone.

He certainly won't want to be asked any questions about how Brexit failed to live up to expectations (he will, however, blame anything that went wrong on everybody but himself).

[dribbles]

So Farage is splitting the conservative vote even further? That only sounds good to Labour with how the UK system works.

A little naive and simplistic. 5 million Labour Brexit voters having been betrayed are looking for a new home. And our Nigel says...

The @UKLabour message to Brexit voters is “we think you’re stupid, you’ve got this wrong and you should try again”.

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/sta...46928866238464

Looks like they will find one.

[Elegiac]

An excellent visual representation of Brexit.

I'm just sad the pilot of that aircraft had to carry a cargo of human excrement.

[Slant]

I don't see this happening to be honest as I would say that the prospect of a GE is at best slim.

However the issue I see with Labour, in the event of a shock election being called, is that they have not gained any ground and at best you could say that they have stood still (some polls showing minor losses) whilst the Cons have seen pro-Brexit voters put their weight behind the pro-Brexit parties. Whilst this would in theory be enough to see a Corbyn government in No. 10 it is worth noting that in the event of a GE Lab would have to make their Brexit policy clear and they would have to pick a side to support which is likely to see some of their pro/anti-Brexit voters splinter off to other parties depending on which side they come down on.

I think if an election was to be held the most likely outcome would be a hung parliament.

I'm not even sure what a GE is supposed to fix. It's just a deflection from the reality that the UK has three choices: No-deal, No Brexit or the deal. The Parliament has ruled out no deal and the deal... so... I mean, you can wait until October, but really we all know what's going to happen...

[Kronik85]

Leading backbencher Nigel Evans called on Theresa May to step down as prime minister "as soon as possible".

The joint executive secretary of the back bench 1922 Committee and MP for Ribble Valley told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "The only way we're going to break this impasse properly is if we have fresh leadership of the Conservative Party...

"If there was an announcement today by the prime minister then of course we could start the process straight away."

He said Mrs May "had been reaching out to the Labour Party and Jeremy Corbyn, when she should have been reaching out to the people".

Anyone able to unpick what this loon is raving on about? A leadership change does not change parliamentary arithmetic nor does Evans support the PV campaign so how exactly does he intend for May to "reach out to the people"?

Then when you think national humiliation levels can't increase you read this!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48020410

We get to relive this clown fiesta again. Visit (hosted by the PM and then fuck off to play golf) whenever you like Mr Trump but I will riot in the fucking streets before you get a State Visit (meet the Queen, stay with the Queen and give a speech in Parliament).

[Fuiking]

apart from Dribbles no one wants a no-deal. But no one has a clue how to get a deal. What a mess.

[Noradin]

Really? Is that only worked for Libya because EU members already declared war on it previously?

It worked for Libya because Libya agreed to take them.

[Slant]

A GE could remove the current Tory government. A GE would give the opportunity for pro-Remain parties to campaign on a referendum and thus put pressure on Labour, that is far more likely to win it, to take a similar stance. So a GE could very likely result in a referendum that would revoke A50 or at least lead to the softest Brexit.

Which pro-Remain parties? The ones that are unelectable to the British people for most reasons other than Brexit? LibDems, Greens? What I said about the Brexit party applies here as well, a GE isn't suitable for a one-issue debate. What happens after they revoke? Greens running a country? I think not.

- - - Updated - - -

apart from Dribbles no one wants a no-deal. But no one has a clue how to get a deal. What a mess.

I mean it's not that difficult, just approve the deal.

[Noradin]

I disagree, I think you have been utterly unreasonable in attributing motivations to me that aren't supported at all.

You are being unresonable by insisting you must be the ultimate authority on what some other poster wrote even after they posted a clarification.
Not to mention that you apparenly knew it wasn't about you from the begining but decided to take offense anyway, just for the sake of it.

[LeGin Tufnel]

I would assume they would be a coalition government with the support of SNP and or Plaid Cymru? I'd also be very interested to see if things change in NI. I think a coalition government between Labour and regional parties would actually feel more representative (but I am talking a proper coalition, not a minority government).

Yep, sure - they'd also have the Greens on board too in a coalition? I wasn't really being serious; was just responding to Mr D's ludicrous idea that the Brexit Party would storm to power.

I agree with @Pann... there's little likelihood of a GE being called in the near future. And when that GE is called who knows what the polls will look like. E.g., if the leavers get their way and the UK hard Brexits, Farage's job would be finished and the Brexit Party would disappear again. All the Brexiteers would go back to voting Tory.

What the national polls look like at the moment is a bit irrelevant. I cannot envisage the circumstances in which May would call a snap GE. Therefore, it'd only happen if Tory MPs (leavers or remainers, depending on the circumstances) abstained or voted with the opposition in a motion of no confidence. Even then it wouldn't guarantee a GE, just the resignation of the government.

[Noradin]

So you think they will make one more vote? If the first vote dont count why would the second? Why not make a third? Its people in power that force their way until they get what they want as always. Why even have a vote when there is no democracy

The Brexit referendum was the second vote on the matter.

[Slant]

I am not saying any of them will run the country, just that the pressure from possible lost votes will force Labour's hand to run on the promise of a People's Vote. Labour would then win the elections but likely end with a minority and will have to either form a coalition or a minority government. I'd hope for a coalition.

Are you sure you want to predict the British with common sense and logical reason?

[Slant]

No, I am just going by the polls. Labour would win but would not have a majority. I would expect them NOT to form a coalition but rather similar to the Tories make a minority government with the backing of the SNP and/or other regional parties.

Hmm, that would by default be a Remain option then, the SNP would not have it another way.

[Kronik85]

Hmm, that would by default be a Remain option then, the SNP would not have it another way.

The SNP are not viable coalition partners for any major party. You would have to assume that the price for support would be Indyref2 and neither Labour or the Conservatives would back that.