Bull Market officially over!! Year heading negative.

[Eosia]

Actually most of the centuries old retailers are dying due to predatory hedge funds. Sears and our more local shopko got wrecked by hedge funds doing leveraged buy outs aka not actually spending any money just "purchasing" a company loading it up with debt, selling off the property that was owned for decades to the hedge fund and then rented back to the company at exorbitant rates. Basically it is legalized looting and pillaging of these companies and it baffles me that this is actually legal.

In some cases, maybe. But the heir to the founder was on the board. And he was in control when he delivered what most analysts said was the mortal blow.

And it's legal because people keep voting Republican.

[Mihalik]

As much as I hate Trump and the new Grand Old Party of Morons, I really hope we can dodge the recession bullet before 2020.

I'd rather not see the economy going up in flames again, just to stick it to the Trumpkins.

On the other side...I am just waiting on the excuse how this dumpster fire is the Democrats fault. Like, we didn't believe in America hard enough or didn't fund the wall or something.

[Breccia]

I'd rather not see the economy going up in flames again, just to stick it to the Trumpkins.

It's not about that, tho for the record I agree.

It's that
a) Trump's policies are making it more, not less, likely that will happen
b) These policies are not being altered because of this risk
c) Anything that suggests this risk is being blamed on other factors and then immediately ignored

If I fire a gun at random into a crowded city street, and just happen to hit someone stealing a baby at gunpoint four blocks away, you don't give me a larger gun with more bullets and ask me to fire into a crowd some more. Because I'll probably hit a school bus, charity auction or Channing Tatum. I'm clearly a menace and should have my existing gun away.

If we dodge a recession, despite artificially pumping money into the rich with no benefit for the poor or middle class, that is not a reason to celebrate, because all that means is it happens in 2021-2024 (by giving the GOP a bigger gun with more bullets) and the recession will just be worse, because we charged ahead further and ran out of safety checks.

Basically, the existing situation will cause a recession. The sooner, the better, because we can fix it. Take the gun away before a nun gets shot in the face.

[Elegiac]

Basically, the existing situation will cause a recession. The sooner, the better, because we can fix it. Take the gun away before a nun gets shot in the face.

Yeah, we don't want the economy going nunderwater.

[Breccia]

Yeah, we don't want the economy going nunderwater.

No. We don't.

So maybe the country should be run like we don't want it going underwater. Forbes published this six hours ago and it's nothing but warning signs.

[Elegiac]

No. We don't.

So maybe the country should be run like we don't want it going underwater. Forbes published this six hours ago and it's nothing but warning signs.

Forbes' 2019 Economic Prediction, Colorized;



Yes I did just want to make a shitty pun.

[Rasulis]

As usual, California tech companies led the charge. Trump should be thanking California. Without California tech companies, last year stock market would have been a bloodbath. As in double digit losses.

[Cthulhu 2020]

I need to start book marking my posts. In those threads of Trumpkins praising Trump's market success, I pointed out that the first 1.5-2 years of a president's service always follows the economic trend of the last president. i.e. the first two years of Trump's presidency would be the Obama economy. Notice how the first two years of Obama's presidency were terrible and then after two years, it turned around into a surplus and more jobs every year?

This is largely because 1. economic policy takes time to write 2. economic policy takes time to pass 3. economic policy takes time to go into effect 4. you don't start to see the effects of economic policy until it's been in effect for many months.

So now that the economy is turning south, the Trumpkins will make excuses as to why it's the Democrat's fault, and when Dems win everything in 2020 and the economy is doing poorly because of Trump, the Trumpkins will blame Dems even harder, even if Dems turn it around 2 years later.

[Breccia]

So now that the economy is turning south, the Trumpkins will make excuses as to why it's the Democrat's fault

And they will have no evidence. Because the tax cut for the rich, and Trump's trade wars, were unilateral.

[Rasulis]

No. We don't.

So maybe the country should be run like we don't want it going underwater. Forbes published this six hours ago and it's nothing but warning signs.

The last two paragraphs are profound.

But there’s one investor who thinks we may have entered a new normal that could sustain higher profitability for a long time—and that investor, surprisingly enough, is Warren *Buffett. At the 2018 annual investor meeting for Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett acknowledged that the Internet, social media, and data revolutions have spawned an “asset-light economy,” driven by tech giants that generate floods of profits from mere trickles of capital. Amazon, Apple, Google parent Alphabet, Facebook, and Microsoft dominate their industries, and their powerful brands and enormous scale swell their revenues per customer and lower their costs of attracting new ones. It’s not coincidental that those five companies now account for 12% of the S&P 500’s profits. While they, too, face rising labor costs, they don’t need nearly as much labor (or plants, or inventories) to generate hefty sales.

The takeaway: The profitability of the tech titans will decline more gradually than margins in other industries, which should help their stocks outperform too. Overall U.S. stock returns will likely be lower than what investors have grown used to. But if workers pocketing higher wages are a reason for that slowdown, that will be a silver lining. —Shawn Tully

[jeezusisacasual]

Actually most of the centuries old retailers are dying due to predatory hedge funds. Sears and our more local shopko got wrecked by hedge funds doing leveraged buy outs aka not actually spending any money just "purchasing" a company loading it up with debt, selling off the property that was owned for decades to the hedge fund and then rented back to the company at exorbitant rates. Basically it is legalized looting and pillaging of these companies and it baffles me that this is actually legal.

This is the problem with predatory capitalism. Most people do not even know the capital groups that do these sort of things nor does the media speak or print articles about them which helps hide more of their predatory practices longer without the public eye on them. It is a layered problem from the lack of funds by the average populace being able to purchase from them combined with the previous problems listed. They need some sort of regulation to stymie this kind of thing but providing that would be almost impossible due to lobbying and having people who work directly with these funds represent in congress already.

[Zan15]

So the stock market did great under Obama? how did the under and middle class fare under the same time period? They where uttelry decimated ! thank you but i prefer Trump

If you are going to use the stock market as an indicator and assume the middle class owns a lot of stock vs the top 10%, they did much better at the same point in their terms.


https://www.macrotrends.net/2481/sto...e-by-president

Dow:

Obama- 60.1%
Trump- 34.2%

https://www.macrotrends.net/2482/sp5...e-by-president

Sp500

Obama - 65.1%
Trump - 28.7%



Not sure how someone who had multiples better of a performance in your example was "decimated" but Trump is "maga"

By other measures?
GDP trend, oh about the same as the prior 3 years continuing a trend of 2ish percent overall.

Employment, a little better under trump but continuing the 2m+ trend of the prior 3-5 years.

Wage stagnation, a little better under trump with wage growth but inflation also ticked up a little only kept down by cratering oil prices and commodity prices because of Tarrifs. Outlook negative because of 80 dollar oil

The economy is sure better than Obama's first term but we all know what he inherited, but as far as the second term its really not much better.




Also taking a 2 month look at the market instead of talking about the full year like the rest of us were...is lolercakes. It proved you can have a good Jan-March and still end the year negative.

Also timing the market my friend, if you could do it you would be a millionaire. Ask the people of the "1999-2000 era" how they liked buying stocks during the drops. it only took them how many years to break even?

[DKjaigen]

If you are going to use the stock market as an indicator and assume the middle class owns a lot of stock vs the top 10%, they did much better at the same point in their terms.

/facepalm why do you even assume the middle class owns a lot of stock? Assumption is the mother of all fuckup and this is a tremendous fuckup

[DarkTZeratul]

/facepalm why do you even assume the middle class owns a lot of stock? Assumption is the mother of all fuckup and this is a tremendous fuckup

He's not assuming that. He's accusing YOU of assuming that given that you conflated stock market performance and middle class prosperity.

[Breccia]

/facepalm why do you even assume the middle class owns a lot of stock?

Dunno, why does Trump and the rabid fanbase keep touting the stock market as a sign of the economy? If the middle class don't own much stock, then it's a bad measurement of the economy, and whether it hits a new high or not doesn't help most people.

So, pick one?

[Zan15]

/facepalm why do you even assume the middle class owns a lot of stock? Assumption is the mother of all fuckup and this is a tremendous fuckup

really that's it? That's all you have?

I mean besides the fact you did not even comprehend what I said and tried to flip it..... its very sad that is your only response.

I guess data and facts is really the kryptonite of the "maga-heads"

[DKjaigen]

Dunno, why does Trump and the rabid fanbase keep touting the stock market as a sign of the economy? If the middle class don't own much stock, then it's a bad measurement of the economy, and whether it hits a new high or not doesn't help most people.

So, pick one?

Actually im looking more at the unemployment rate and wage raise. both are in the positives so he is doing a decent job.

[Dontrike]

Yes you got loads terrible temp jobs in return that offered no security, career or stable income. Key reason why Hillary lost the blue wall

And Trump added those jobs kinds of jobs? His administration is basically temp jobs with how fast they go in and out.

[Breccia]

Actually im looking more at the unemployment rate

Dropping at an Obama-like rate. Actually, lower, by both percent and percentage points.

and wage raise.

Continued Obama-like trend.

both are in the positives so he is doing a decent job.

Then Obama was doing a better job.

Yet, Trump campaigned and ran on Obama doing a terrible job. Also, can't help but notice you failed to mention GDP and inflation. Guess who did better in those, too?

Trump routinely called out Obama's results as poor, and yet, has done similar, or worse, in every measurable metric. Oh, and that's including the blatant lies, like "unemployment 42%" and "3.1% GDP growth hasn't happened in 14 years".

Turns out, people who believe in Trump promises have nothing to show for it. Hey, how's that $4,000 raise a year he promised? Those 25 million jobs, is he on track for that? Trade wars working okay?

[Zan15]

Actually im looking more at the unemployment rate and wage raise. both are in the positives so he is doing a decent job.

How ironic that the drop in unemployment under Obama was 86% of the total since the recession but Obama did a horrible job, but at 14% trump is doing a decent job.

Wage growth is up but so is inflation.

Shit in 2015 they were touting the same thing as they are today
Real median household income was $56,500 in 2015, the bureau reported, up from $53,700 in 2014. That 5.2 percent increase was the largest, in percentage terms, recorded by the bureau since it began tracking median income statistics in the 1960s.


2014, 2015 were great years, better than 2017 or 2018. 2016 it slowed down for the first half then went back up to the trend line for the last 5-10 years.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wage-growth



You don't get it both ways when talking about economies that were performing about the same, but you sure are trying.