Bull Market officially over!! Year heading negative.

[Breccia]

That 3.5 billion has been suspect and certainly debateable, there are even reports he's not even worth that much. It wouldn't surprise me if he had as much money as I do.

Just a reminder before we go back on topic (this thread reeks of stale turnips): Trump is hiding his earnings. He is fighting even a subpoena to say what everyone since Nixon has done willingly. If this was such a non-issue old news, why didn't we know about it before? It took a leak to get these. NYState is specifically making a law to prevent Trump from blocking Congress from seeing them.

This is exactly like the China deal, or more realistically, the spin for a lack of it.

1) "We're going to have a great deal! Bigly deal! It's coming any day now! Any day! Actually wait, tariffs are better."
2) "I'm not showing you my taxes! You can't see them! You can't see them! Oh the billions in losses are no big deal, you knew about that."

It's disingenuous. It's lying. Stop responding to liars. You're better than that.

Speaking of lying, it's time for Guess the Speaker!

Talks with China continue in a very congenial manner - there is absolutely no need to rush - as Tariffs are NOW being paid to the United States by China of 25% on 250 Billion Dollars worth of goods & products. These massive payments go directly to the Treasury of the U.S....

Yep, that's a Trump tweet.

"I don't see it in his feed, which you didn't link."

He deleted it.

Probably because, as even the rabid fanbase knows but refuses to admit in public, tariffs aren't being paid by China. They're paid by US taxpayers.

[rda]

That 3.5 billion has been suspect and certainly debateable, there are even reports he's not even worth that much. It wouldn't surprise me if he had as much money as I do.

OK, that's something new (at least to me).

I typed "Trump's net worth" into google and landed on this:

https://www.forbes.com/donald-trump/#417ce7052899

They estimate his current worth at 3.1 billion.

What are your objections to that? I am not saying you have none, just asking what are they, specifically? Could you link some sources? Is the composite wrong, are any of the parts overvalued, what is it?

[Breccia]

Bank of America says the trade war could cause a global recession within hours of Trump's tweets.

The worst-case scenario: an all-out trade war, with tariffs on the remaining Chinese goods, retaliation from China, and an increased risk of auto tariffs that could push the global economy into recession.

Under a deal, we expect the S&P 500 could rally above 3000 near-term...while under a full-fledged trade war, the S&P 500 could pull back 5-10% near-term, with potential to enter a bear market

As I've posted elsewhere, the GOP doesn't want tariffs, the American taxpayer (well, the ones who actually know things like facts and context) don't want tariffs, and corporate America doesn't want tariffs, either.

Re-read Trump's tweets. He's saying tariffs are better than even a tremendous deal. Again, I think he's saying that because he can't get a deal -- you've seen my posts over the last 3 days on exactly that, it's not just today -- and I challenge anyone otherwise. But cite evidence, or else you're talking fiction.

"Wait, can't Trump get a deal by just lowering his offer? Isn't that how negotiation works?"

Yes, Trump could. But look at his history. He takes hostages, such as his worker's paychecks, and expects them to grovel and fight for part of the leftovers. He uses power to make people his bitch. He hates it when it's used on him, such as the Trump Shutdown. If China continues to refuse his demands, and he makes softer demands, he will be seen as caving to China. He might do that eventually, but don't expect it soon.

China knows full well they can wait it out. It's not a secret they're just waiting for Biden. Hell, Trump tweeted that, too. In the meantime, he spends his morning bragging about $100 billion (his numbers) new sales tax on the American taxpayer, or $500 each, because he wants to disguise failure as a success.

If tariffs were really better than the best bestiest best deal...why did he work so hard to get a deal? Why not just slap on tariffs, win, and move on? Explain the logic of wasting over half his tenure on something that, apparently, would have been a worse idea anyhow?

- - - Updated - - -

At time of writing, DOW is down 300 and change, losing all gains since March 28th.

- - - Updated - - -

Yield curve inverts a second time this year.

Investors and market analysts have largely written off the inversion as the product of central bank manipulation or a market aberration, and the S&P 500 had rallied 3% since the curve inverted on March 22 to the end of last week, before Trump's Sunday night tariff tweets erased almost all of those gains.

Yes, that's right: the market nearly shrugged off the first inverted yield curve. Then Trump tweeted.

- - - Updated - - -

Hey remember when I said China was going to target states with their retaliation? Well, the results are in.



Wow. I was really wrong, plastics was #1. Aircraft was #2, yeah, but I don't even see wheat/coal up there.

Now those states...ouch. Washington and Oregon have a lot of aircraft manufacturing, but are the only blue states in that top ten. How's it going, West Virigina? Tired of winning yet? Is "getting ass-raped by Trump's trade war" one of the Tadpole badges?

"Hold on, 0.7% GDP isn't that bad!"

Well, hold on. What's US wage growth? After inflation?

"Um, hourly 1.2%, salary 1.9%?"

More or less. Now, take off 0.7% from both of those. That's basically nongrowth. Now, let's look at GDP. Let's pretend that 3.2% was real and honest (it isn't, but we covered that). Take 0.7% off that, a number Trump bragged about, and what do you have?

"2.5%, lower than literally the majority of Obama's second term."

Exactly. Losing 0.7% when your growth is normally 1-3% is a big proportional loss. Oh, and West Virginia is hardly in a place to celebrate. The 2006-2016 compound annual growth rate for West Virginia real GDP was 0.7 percent. They've had a bad time (cough cough coal cough) and this will wipe out what little gains they have.

[rda]

^^ For completeness, you'd better look into why this trade war is waged at all, what's the history here and what specifically is the reason for the last twist. The argument that the trade war is bad would still stay, but the coverage would be way more round. I'd also post an analysis from the side of China - it's not rosy there either although whether they might bend or not depends mostly not on that and rather on the political will (and they can endure). Just a suggestion.

[Breccia]

Oh my God, when it rains it pours.

Trump's tariffs are now making the US have some of the highest tariffs on the planet.

"Says who?"

Well, heh, you're going to love this. Torsten Slok, a major economics chief for a major international monetary organization.

"...which one?"

*snicker* Deutche Bank.



That's averaged over all imports. Trump, who lets not forget calls tariffs unfair, is now king of the pack. Well, no, but near the top, and far more than pretty much any industrialized country out there. Not sure how Brazil fits in that spectrum to be honest.

- - - Updated - - -

Once again, it's time for Guess the Speaker!

I built a truly great company worth many billions of dollars. That is a big part of the reason I was elected. As President, I can make far better deals with foreign countries than Congress.

Yes, that's Trump, in the statement he made when he signed the Russian sanctions, crying like a bitch.

Let's review that, shall we?

1) We've seen his company has, in fact, lost billions of dollars. He's lucky if the Forbes estimate of $3.1 billion is right anymore. Three is not many unless you're a gully dwarf. He also claims that's why he was elected...while some people still try to handwave "he lost billions, old news non issue". Sorry, but Trump just countered your argument.

2) And no, he's not making better deals. He's making worse deals. He's putting $100 billion new sales tax on American taxpayers because he says it's better than working with China.

Are we tired of winning yet?

- - - Updated - - -

Trade talks end. No deal reached.

[Edge-]

Trade talks end. No deal reached.

I look forward to American consumers paying even more to cover the tariffs levied on foreign goods. Is this what "winning" looks like? Raising trade barriers that do nothing but raise the cost on US consumers, who are left to foot the bill as tariffs aren't paid by foreign companies?

Is "America First" shorthand for "America Pays First"?

[rda]

It's too early to be panicking (or celebrating, etc). What happened is that Trump hit the Chinese and the Chinese didn't yield. Those interested may want to learn why Trump hit, this is a rather long talk that I don't have time for right now (in a nutshell, the Chinese did renege on some of their promises last minute). More importantly is what happens now. What happens now is that there is about a two-week long period in which everything can be negotiated back without any material effect on anything (because goods take about this long to travel from China to the US). The real finale is going to be at the end of these two weeks, likely a little faster. Trump might actually win, by the way (although I wouldn't want that).

[Fahrenheit]

I can't help but to feel all of this could've been avoided if we worked from a position starting with the TPP, instead of ripping it up and starting over. Particularly in regards to China's theft of American IP.

[DarkTZeratul]

I can't help but to feel all of this could've been avoided if we worked from a position starting with the TPP, instead of ripping it up and starting over. Particularly in regards to China's theft of American IP.

No fucking shit.

[Elegiac]

I can't help but to feel all of this could've been avoided if we worked from a position starting with the TPP, instead of ripping it up and starting over. Particularly in regards to China's theft of American IP.

You don’t say.

[Fahrenheit]

No fucking shit.

You don’t say.

Trump being his normal dumbass self I suppose. Can't let Obama have the credit of initializing the trade deal.

[Breccia]

I can't help but to feel all of this could've been avoided if we worked from a position starting with the TPP

Valid opinion.

You know what else might have helped avoiding this? Not starting a trade war.

[Zan15]

It's too early to be panicking (or celebrating, etc). What happened is that Trump hit the Chinese and the Chinese didn't yield. Those interested may want to learn why Trump hit, this is a rather long talk that I don't have time for right now (in a nutshell, the Chinese did renege on some of their promises last minute). More importantly is what happens now. What happens now is that there is about a two-week long period in which everything can be negotiated back without any material effect on anything (because goods take about this long to travel from China to the US). The real finale is going to be at the end of these two weeks, likely a little faster. Trump might actually win, by the way (although I wouldn't want that).

There is no winning, what ever concessions are going to be paid by the consumer one way or another.


Also tariffs are paid on arrival not shipping date.
The tariff, along with the other assessments, is collected at the time of customs clearance in the foreign port. Goods are arriving right now that as of 12:01am are subject to a new tariff rate that must be collected and paid before it will be accepted into the country.


Billions arrive every day, there is no 2 week impact delay its instant and even if it only last a few days that cost will be passed on

[Breccia]

Also tariffs are paid on arrival not shipping date.

Goods that have already left port are ex post facto'd out. It's impressive, of all the "I'm not defending Trump, but I'm defending Trump" we've seen with nothing cited but Trump, he did actually get one fact right.

[Draco-Onis]

I look forward to American consumers paying even more to cover the tariffs levied on foreign goods. Is this what "winning" looks like? Raising trade barriers that do nothing but raise the cost on US consumers, who are left to foot the bill as tariffs aren't paid by foreign companies?

Is "America First" shorthand for "America Pays First"?

Don't forget the billions of tax payer money he is giving to farmers so that they can keep voting for him.

[Breccia]

Don't forget the billions of tax payer money he is giving to farmers so that they can keep voting for him.

"Thanks Trump for correcting the problem you yourself caused. That's what I wanted to vote for: the guy who eventually broke even."

[Draco-Onis]

"Thanks Trump for correcting the problem you yourself caused. That's what I wanted to vote for: the guy who eventually broke even."

He's got to keep breaking those deficit and debt records, he is literally trying to bankrupt the US.

[Zan15]

Goods that have already left port are ex post facto'd out. It's impressive, of all the "I'm not defending Trump, but I'm defending Trump" we've seen with nothing cited but Trump, he did actually get one fact right.

I do not believe that to be true since duties, taxes and tariffs are collected upon arrival in the host country.
The law on the books at the time of arrival would be applied since the origin is not from this country.

But I've been wrong before I will have to do some digging.

[Breccia]

I do not believe that to be true

I didn't know that either, until multiple solid sources like this one mentioned it all at once, and I saw it like four or five times whine documenting the tragedy of Trump trying to bully China and getting bitchslapped.

[Zan15]

I didn't know that either, until multiple solid sources like this one mentioned it all at once, and I saw it like four or five times whine documenting the tragedy of Trump trying to bully China and getting bitchslapped.

Ah thanks, it looks like they made special exclusions for these tariffs outside of the standards in the tax/trade laws.


unlike previous tranches of tariffs imposed by Trump, the new ones are structured to give at least a couple of weeks of cushion before the higher import taxes will be assessed on goods arriving by ship. The higher tariffs would apply to products that left China on or after 12:01 a.m. Eastern time Friday, meaning ships in transit before then would not be taxed at the new rate. Container ships from China typically take two to three weeks to reach the West Coast.