Bull Market officially over!! Year heading negative.

[Breccia]

If you look at growth in both markets

Wait, is the rabid fanbase back to using the stock market as a measurement of wealth? Because at time of writing I can think of 660 reasons why today is the worst possible day to make that argument!

[Zan15]

Wait, is the rabid fanbase back to using the stock market as a measurement of wealth? Because at time of writing I can think of 660 reasons why today is the worst possible day to make that argument!

damn trump just spoke and he is still outright lying about tariffs even after he's been rebuked by his own staff already.


will be interesting to see if the mid day trump bump holds.

[Breccia]

damn trump just spoke and he is still outright lying about tariffs even after he's been rebuked by his own staff already.

Well, let's face it, he's locked himself into two options.
A) Admit he was wrong, or
B) Continue objectively lying.

Most people don't have that problem. And, yet, here we are.

I would honestly love to see @lockedout respond. That's not sarcasm nor trolling: I legit want to see a good-faith Trump defender talk about how Trump, relying on tariffs for his economic policy, can get them this wrong this often, and yet remain supported. It'd be like, I dunno, asking Anakin Skywalker how to raise children.

But until he does, what's really weirding me out is this: yes, Trump is objectively wrong and objectively lying about tariffs. Everyone knows that, even though the rabid fanbase will pretend and Kudlow is spinning. But most people who "do" the stock market aren't that stupid or incompetent. They know Trump is lying, so does everyone else, but they stand to lose money based on Trump lying. Why are they literally buying into it? Mother Teresa herself could come to my office right now and say "Thou shouldst totally quitteth thine job and become an airline pilot" and I would be forced to say "That's just stupid, I don't know how to fly a plane" to a saint. Trump is a lot less credible than Mother Teresa. He throws nothing but empty promises. Why would anyone throw their money into that pit?

[Rasulis]

Interestingly enough, the states that voted for him are the states that are hit the hardest by the trade war.



The irony is that California had record low Chapter 12 filing in 2018. I guess it pays to be Trump's nemesis state.

[Molis]

Interestingly enough, the states that voted for him are the states that are hit the hardest by the trade war.


The irony is that California had record low Chapter 12 filing in 2018. I guess it pays to be Trump's nemesis state.

For all the weird things Jerry Brown tried (Like the Bullet Train) he left our state with a huge surplus.

Is this what winning looks like?

[Paranoid Android]

Well first your data is a little stale and picked at a time where the markets reaction had nothing to do with the trade war.
If you look at growth in both markets in the 5-10-20 year time frames Japan has no chance and catching up to the US is inevitable even though their per capita will be pathetic vs the US.

Also market cap of the US stock market means SHIT, since it includes hundreds of companies that are not even based in the US or either of the other two countries. Its where they chose to list their stock. It has very little other meaning.
Not to mention a bunch of the bigger companies are cross listed in multiple exchanges in multiple countries thus counted multiple times in any market cap discussion.
Worthless, and especially overinflates the US market the most.


Since the end of 2018 china stock market is up, including today around 16.4% and Japan 5.8% So they are easily back to #2.

"but now its dropping again and fast".
So is the Japanese market at basically the same rate in 2019

YTD results vs peak:
China drop at peak 31.2% -> 16.4% = 1.9
Jap drop at peak 11.5% -> 5.9% = 1.95


US is dropping around 1.72 so they are dropping slower, but then again China market was up at the peak around 31% vs the US 17.5%.
China still is outperforming the two at 16.4% vs 12.1% vs 5.9%.

with a higher starting point one would expect them to drop faster.

Assuming the stock market is an accurate measurement of cause and effect of the trade war is almost as worthless as the market cap of a given stock market.

- - - Updated - - -



You mean like another tax cut or allowing another huge free giveaway on "imported" overseas cash.
or do you mean like farm subsidies?
or maybe defense subsidies?
or oil subsidies?
Ethanol Subsidies?
Export Subsidies ?
Housing Subsidies?
Cash for clunkers?
Sub 0 interest on loans to banks?
Healthcare/insurance subsidies?

Yikers….

- - - Updated - - -



its not welfare

ITS SOCIALISM!!!!!!

Damn republicans trying to make us just like Venezuela!!!!!
/s

Ha! Trump, Pence and the Republican party has warned us of the oncoming socialism. I guess it's here with this administration.

[Zan15]

Welp its now flat since 1/2/18.
1/16/18 on the SP500

Nasdaq is a little better 6/18, but another 75 points and it will push that back to jan 18 levels

15 months of a flat market, seems the OP is holding up just fine.

This is not a bull market

Trump bump did not hold

[Breccia]

Interestingly enough, the states that voted for him are the states that are hit the hardest by the trade war.

Two things:
A) Duh. The people who lost the most money in Trump bankruptcies were the people who partnered with Trump. People who said, for example, "why would anyone want steaks from Sharper Image?" lost nothing.
B) This is China's doing, at least partially. Retaliatory tariffs were not chosen on whim. Oh, and I'm just going to guess the floods aren't even on that map. Yet.

Trump bump did not hold

Looks like my earlier prediction weren't all that great. Didn't go further down, but sure as hell didn't go back up.

[Blur4stuff]

Much like Trump's inheritance, had he done absolutely nothing everyone would be better off.

[Rasulis]

Two things:
A) Duh. The people who lost the most money in Trump bankruptcies were the people who partnered with Trump. People who said, for example, "why would anyone want steaks from Sharper Image?" lost nothing.
B) This is China's doing, at least partially. Retaliatory tariffs were not chosen on whim. Oh, and I'm just going to guess the floods aren't even on that map. Yet.



Looks like my earlier prediction weren't all that great. Didn't go further down, but sure as hell didn't go back up.

China did put a 15% tariff on all of California nut crops. However, turns out the Chinese really likes their nuts (pun intended).

U.S. pistachio exports to China rose 7 percent to a record 108 million pounds in the crop year through August, 2018, according to the Administrative Committee for Pistachios, and another 10 percent in the six months since. Almond receipts in 2018 was down 0.5%, but then production was also down 3.2% due to lack of rain in 2018. The walnut industry has avoided paying the full tariff through the “gray market,” or the sales of walnuts through other countries that feed into China.

The other factor is that, unlike soy beans, China is only 10% of California almond and pistachio export, and 20% of walnut export. Also, California produces 80% of the world almond (also the only place outside of Spain that grow Marcona almond) and two-third of the world English walnut, and Iran, the second largest producer of pistachio, had a bad crop in 2018. So China had no choice if they want their nuts.

We’ll have to see what will happen with the next iteration of Chinese tariff which is anticipated to go up to 50%.

Minor correction: Tariffs for the three nuts (both shelled and in-shell) as of July 6, 2018 increased to between 45% and 65%.

[Paranoid Android]

Farmers get impatient with Trump's trade war: 'This can't go on'


So is this just a media story trying to connect to the midwest. Are farmers in large enough numbers going to turn against Trump? What does that mean? Agriculture states such as Nebraska, Kansas, North and South Dakota, etc going to go blue in 2020?

Even in my state of Minnesota which has a good mix of agriculture and other businesses I'm betting Trump will hold the non-metro areas. Idk if this will say make my state a 55-60% state in 2020 for the Dem or still be a very close 52%. I still believe it will be along rural lines.

[Draco-Onis]

Farmers get impatient with Trump's trade war: 'This can't go on'


So is this just a media story trying to connect to the midwest. Are farmers in large enough numbers going to turn against Trump? What does that mean? Agriculture states such as Nebraska, Kansas, North and South Dakota, etc going to go blue in 2020?

Even in my state of Minnesota which has a good mix of agriculture and other businesses I'm betting Trump will hold the non-metro areas. Idk if this will say make my state a 55-60% state in 2020 for the Dem or still be a very close 52%. I still believe it will be along rural lines.

These people are far too stupid and brain washed to grow brain cells and start thinking now, even after Trump bankrupts their family business they will still vote for him.

[Belize]

Farmers get impatient with Trump's trade war: 'This can't go on'


So is this just a media story trying to connect to the midwest. Are farmers in large enough numbers going to turn against Trump? What does that mean? Agriculture states such as Nebraska, Kansas, North and South Dakota, etc going to go blue in 2020?

Even in my state of Minnesota which has a good mix of agriculture and other businesses I'm betting Trump will hold the non-metro areas. Idk if this will say make my state a 55-60% state in 2020 for the Dem or still be a very close 52%. I still believe it will be along rural lines.

They'll still vote Republican when the election come. Don't you worry.

[jeezusisacasual]

They'll still vote Republican when the election come. Don't you worry.

Oh here in Wyoming they could scorch their fields and they would say well this is alright please give me more!!

[Rasulis]

Oh here in Wyoming they could scorch their fields and they would say well this is alright please give me more!!

You would think that they would be smart enough to recognize that, in two short years, their so called commander-in-chief had destroyed a market that took them two decades to develop. Even if an agreement is signed tomorrow, Brazil, Indonesia & Vietnam are not going to give up the soybean market without the fight. What are we going to do? Send warships to force them not to sell soybean to China?

[jeezusisacasual]

You would think that they would be smart enough to recognize that, in two short years, their so called commander-in-chief had destroyed a market that took them two decades to develop. Even if an agreement is signed tomorrow, Brazil, Indonesia & Vietnam are not going to give up the soybean market without the fight. What are we going to do? Send warships to force them not to sell soybean to China?

I agree 100% but one of the guys here literally said it was gods will, that tells you alot about the state of that base. I am eagerly awaiting the farm bankruptcies numbers, not because i am happy to see them lose the most important asset in their family but mostly to see how much these sort of things impact the daily life of the farmland. I also think the ship is being sailed now and once you lose your position at the table it is extremely hard to get it back let alone a less then ideal situation again another reason why i am looking at how employment and other metrics are in the UK following Brexit. I recall the previous reports of this trade dispute will be over in a week then a month and then 90 days. The bigger question is if the Trump administration will buckle under the markets falling or will they stand their ground and fight it to a grinding halt?

[rda]

Well first your data is a little stale and picked at a time where the markets reaction had nothing to do with the trade war. [...] Also market cap of the US stock market means SHIT, since it includes hundreds of companies that are not even based in the US or either of the other two countries. Its where they chose to list their stock.

I was making an illustration regarding the effect of the trade war on China / the overall state and vulnerability of China's economy, the graph works well for that. The market reaction was in part due to the trade war, if you aren't aware of when tariffs started appearing, that was the beginning of 2018. I said what happened after the right end of the graph - things went up, then half-way back down, the trade war was a major driver. I posted the number for the stock market of the US for qualitative comparison - it is true that there are companies participating in the US stock market that aren't based in the US, this is true for most stock markets, and this does skew the difference towards the US somewhat, yes, but the qualitative result is correct = the US is way bigger than China if compared in that way. Nobody says that the size of the stock market is some kind of gospel, the reason I posted it is because the graph was tracking the stock market for China.

You are spending too much time trying to prove me wrong. I am fine with that, but you aren't contesting the message, you are just picking mostly inconsequential details and trying to make an elephant out of a molehill. Stop doing that. If you want to argue that the trade war has or will have little effect on China, go ahead and argue that. If you want to argue that the trade war has or will have worse effect on the US than on China, go ahead and argue that. If you want to argue that China's economy is in great shape or whatever, go ahead and argue that. Right now you are just nitpicking.

[Zaydin]

Place your bets early: What will Trumps excuse be when his pointless trade war helps lead to a recession?

[rda]

^^ I know that's a lowball, but I have a spare minute so what the hell - it isn't pointless. You know who was writing articles about how it is time to stop tolerating Chinese unfair practices? Paul Krugman. And you know what he suggested the US do?

Why, have a look:

"Some still argue that we must reason gently with China, not confront it. But we’ve been reasoning with China for years, as its surplus ballooned, and gotten nowhere: on Sunday Wen Jiabao, the Chinese prime minister, declared — absurdly — that his nation’s currency is not undervalued. (The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates that the renminbi is undervalued by between 20 and 40 percent.) And Mr. Wen accused other nations of doing what China actually does, seeking to weaken their currencies “just for the purposes of increasing their own exports.”

But if sweet reason won’t work, what’s the alternative? In 1971 the United States dealt with a similar but much less severe problem of foreign undervaluation by imposing a temporary 10 percent surcharge on imports, which was removed a few months later after Germany, Japan and other nations raised the dollar value of their currencies. At this point, it’s hard to see China changing its policies unless faced with the threat of similar action — except that this time the surcharge would have to be much larger, say 25 percent."

https://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/15/o...15krugman.html

I guess you are not old enough to remember.

And yes, that's from effing 9 years ago. That's for how long these issues existed (even longer). This rhetoric continued all the way until Trump started acting on it. Then things suddenly changed and taking China to task became a horrible, horrible mistake, a sure loss, and whatnot. And if Trump loses next elections to some dem and the issue of China is still there, things will change again, no doubt, and putting China in line will again be a worthy task, no matter the small cost bla bla bla.

[Kryctos]

Place your bets early: What will Trumps excuse be when his pointless trade war helps lead to a recession?

"its the democrats fault. if they hadnt won back the house all Americans would be making billions and billions" is my guess