[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[dribbles]

Excellent. So since no-deal has already been voted down in Parliament, that leaves only two options; second referendum, or cancel Article 50. Since the Brexit crew are losing heavily in polls pitching Remain against either May's deal or no-deal, those mean basically the same thing.

So, shall we just cancel Article 50 right now, and then you can all go back to whining about how unfair it is for the rest of time? That would save time and money for all of us.

No deal is the default position voted for into law by parliament should no EU agreement be forthcoming by October 31st. No no-deal has not been voted into law.

Whatcha talkin bout Willis?

To be fair dribs if you were actually serious about Brexit you would be cheering for this bill. Completely rules out a People's Vote because it would lose in a Commons vote and you would get your Brexit. But just as it has been from the get go it will be Brexiteers that fuck this up, not Remainers.

Oh we will still get our Brexit, I'm not worried about that as all roads lead there, but the worst PM in history has to go first...

[Elegiac]

No deal is the default position voted for into law by parliament should no EU agreement be forthcoming by October 31st. No no-deal has not been voted into law.

Whatcha talkin bout Willis?

If the EUMP elections are a "confirmatory vote" on Brexit then Parliament's resolution against a no-deal Brexit is the default position.

Your logic, not ours.

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Oh we will still get our Brexit, I'm not worried about that as all roads lead there, but the worst PM in history has to go first...

Wasn't Brexit supposed to happen two months ago?

[Huehuecoyotl]

No deal is the default position voted for into law by parliament should no EU agreement be forthcoming by October 31st. No no-deal has not been voted into law.

Whatcha talkin bout Willis?



Oh we will still get our Brexit, I'm not worried about that as all roads lead there, but the worst PM in history has to go first...

You don't get no-deal. You seem happy not to get a deal. I'm sorry, but all that's left is cancelling Article 50. Saying that it's the default when you know that there is a majority against it in Parliament is disingenuous at best. Sure, if nothing happens between now and the end of October, that's what happens. But there is no way Parliament sits and does nothing while that happens, and you know it.

You've lost dribbles. You've wasted an enormous amount of this countries time, effort and energy, but the end result is that you've lost and we won't leave. Cheer up, this is the best result for you. You can carry on whining about how you were cheated and how wonderful Brexit would have been and nobody can prove that you are still talking out of your arse. Whereas if we leave and the inevitable chaos occurs, you will have no choice but to own the failure.

This is your get out of jail free card. You should be happy.

[zealo]

You don't get no-deal. You seem happy not to get a deal. I'm sorry, but all that's left is cancelling Article 50. Saying that it's the default when you know that there is a majority against it in Parliament is disingenuous at best. Sure, if nothing happens between now and the end of October, that's what happens. But there is no way Parliament sits and does nothing while that happens, and you know it.

You've lost dribbles. You've wasted an enormous amount of this countries time, effort and energy, but the end result is that you've lost and we won't leave. Cheer up, this is the best result for you. You can carry on whining about how you were cheated and how wonderful Brexit would have been and nobody can prove that you are still talking out of your arse. Whereas if we leave and the inevitable chaos occurs, you will have no choice but to own the failure.

This is your get out of jail free card. You should be happy.

I wouldn't be so sure of that. They rejected every single option on the table when they got to vote on it, and there hasn't been much signs the situation will change since.

[Elegiac]

I wouldn't be so sure of that. They rejected every single option on the table when they got to vote on it, and there hasn't been much signs the situation will change since.

There's unlikely to be a majority for any option unless the sitting government supports it.

The problem is that any government that makes a firm decision on the matter isn't likely to last very long. Catch 22.

[Butler to Baby Sloths]

I wouldn't be so sure of that. They rejected every single option on the table when they got to vote on it, and there hasn't been much signs the situation will change since.

They got a bill through Parliament in less than a week to force the PM to request another extension and prevent a no-deal exit back in April though.

[Huehuecoyotl]

They got a bill through Parliament in less than a week to force the PM to request another extension and prevent a no-deal exit back in April though.

And that was when it was still theoretically three possible outcomes and a lot of political manoevering. If it comes down to a straight vote to choose between no-deal and cancelling Article 50, it won't even be close. I would be amazed if it were less than 100 majority in favour of stopping Brexit in that instance. It could easily be a lot higher.

Dribbles sees all this as good news, because it will force the issue. I don't know why he ignores the Parliamentary maths around this; maybe he prefers to stay ignorantly happy in his little Brexit bubble with all the unicorns?

Like a dinosaur, his Brexit is already dead. The confirmation of this just hasn't made its way up to the tiny pea-brain at the other end of the body.

[Butler to Baby Sloths]

And that was when it was still theoretically three possible outcomes and a lot of political manoevering. If it comes down to a straight vote to choose between no-deal and cancelling Article 50, it won't even be close. I would be amazed if it were less than 100 majority in favour of stopping Brexit in that instance. It could easily be a lot higher.

Dribbles sees all this as good news, because it will force the issue. I don't know why he ignores the Parliamentary maths around this; maybe he prefers to stay ignorantly happy in his little Brexit bubble with all the unicorns?

Like a dinosaur, his Brexit is already dead. The confirmation of this just hasn't made its way up to the tiny pea-brain at the other end of the body.

Alternative Parliamentary Maths says there is a majority in the Commons for it :P

[dribbles]

And that was when it was still theoretically three possible outcomes and a lot of political manoevering. If it comes down to a straight vote to choose between no-deal and cancelling Article 50, it won't even be close. I would be amazed if it were less than 100 majority in favour of stopping Brexit in that instance. It could easily be a lot higher.

Dribbles sees all this as good news, because it will force the issue. I don't know why he ignores the Parliamentary maths around this; maybe he prefers to stay ignorantly happy in his little Brexit bubble with all the unicorns?

Like a dinosaur, his Brexit is already dead. The confirmation of this just hasn't made its way up to the tiny pea-brain at the other end of the body.

Nope, she has to go now, I can't say it enough times.

Then,

1. Boris Johnson coronation.
2. General Election as poor Boris no longer has a majority in the House.
3. Labour and Tory leave voting marginals elect Brexit party MP's kicking out current remainer incumbents that have betrayed their electorate.
4. Tories align with 50 ish Farage BXP MP's to form a government.
5. Bye Bye EU

You read it here first, remember that, you can thank me later.

[Mayhem]

3. Labour and Tory leave voting marginals elect Brexit party MP's kicking out current remainer incumbents that have betrayed their electorate.

Which are the 50 ish constituencies where the Brexit Party stands a chance to get the majority of votes?

[Elegiac]

Nope, she has to go now, I can't say it enough times.

Then,

1. Boris Johnson coronation.
2. General Election as poor Boris no longer has a majority in the House.
3. Labour and Tory leave voting marginals elect Brexit party MP's kicking out current remainer incumbents that have betrayed their electorate.
4. Tories align with 50 ish Farage BXP MP's to form a government.
5. Bye Bye EU

You read it here first, remember that, you can thank me later.

We still need to thank you for your entirely correct prediction of a crash out Brexit on March 20th.

[LeGin Tufnel]

We still need to thank you for your entirely correct prediction of a crash out Brexit on March 20th.

Yeah, but the worrying thing is that I really don't see that scenario as being completely implausible.

But - it will be at that point that I start throwing milkshakes.

[Huehuecoyotl]

Nope, she has to go now, I can't say it enough times.

Then,

1. Boris Johnson coronation.
2. General Election as poor Boris no longer has a majority in the House.
3. Labour and Tory leave voting marginals elect Brexit party MP's kicking out current remainer incumbents that have betrayed their electorate.
4. Tories align with 50 ish Farage BXP MP's to form a government.
5. Bye Bye EU

You read it here first, remember that, you can thank me later.

Elect Brexit MPs? That's a bit optimistic, bearing in mind that they currently have literally 1 thing in their manifesto. They might get away with that going into the EU elections, but you can see from the polls already that their support more than halves if it comes to a GE. So they are not only going to have to come up with some actual stances to take on other things (which will drive voters away) they are also going to have to raise money to run in a GE while under VERY close scrutiny from the Electoral Commission (which Farage said today he wants to get rid of....I wonder why?)

And that's ignoring the fact that the Brexit party, once it starts to take other positions, is going to be in more danger of fracturing than any other party. Where do they stand on private v public ownership? Bank reform? Education? They will have to pick positions on all of them, and the chances of the disparate supporters all being happy to ignore the other shit they come up with just to continue to support Brexit is going to be pretty slim.

They are going to get a third of the votes in the EU election. If they can keep the party from falling apart for a GE, they MIGHT get 10-15%. But since the likelyhood is that they will stand on a manifesto that sits to the right of the Tories, most of those votes are going to come from the Tories. Leaving Labour and the centre parties to form a majority in any Parliament that results. And that's assuming that the Tories allow a GE to happen. If as expected it is that damaging to them, they will probably want to delay it as much as possible, especially if the fallout from cancelling Article 50 is bad for them.

Any way you slice it, it really isn't simple. And it really isn't good for your people. A new leader won't save it. A GE won't save it. Dream all you like, it's almost over now. And from your point of view the ending is going to be more disappointing than GoT.

[dribbles]

Elect Brexit MPs? That's a bit optimistic, bearing in mind that they currently have literally 1 thing in their manifesto. They might get away with that going into the EU elections, but you can see from the polls already that their support more than halves if it comes to a GE....<SNIP>

That's a no too. It is very very simple...



Compared to EU election polling...



https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-...14th-may-2019/

Halved you say? Dozens of BXP seats in a general election, holding the balance of power, are entirely possible. It is not just me saying it and the pollsters confirm it.

[Huehuecoyotl]

That's a no too. It is very very simple...



Compared to EU election polling...



https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-...14th-may-2019/

Halved you say? Dozens of BXP seats in a general election, holding the balance of power, are entirely possible. It is not just me saying it and the pollsters confirm it.

And as I said...that's with no manifesto. The second this joke of a one-trick party starts to make policy decisions that go beyond "do Brexit and magic will happen" that number will start dropping. And judging from the kind of people involved in the party, the policy decisions they make are going to be stupid, dangerous and unworkable. And probably fascist. I stand by my view that you will be lucky to get 10-15% in a GE once those policy decisions are made. Assuming that they don't do anything stupid with their funding that gets them banned from the election entirely. I rate that at about a 50-50 chance.

And even if they did hold a "balance of power", what does that mean? That other parties would side with them in going for a no-deal Brexit that would take them down with the Brexit party? It would be Brexit party and whatever is left of the ERG on one side, and everyone else on the other. Even if your numbers held up that won't give you enough to get what you want. It just isn't going to happen.

Let it go dribbles. It's the only way you can ever hope to recover your sanity.

[Edit] I thought those numbers for the GE looked a bit off. Picked pretty much the only outlier poll that showed Brexit that high, eh? More dishonesty from a rank dishonest poster. Apart from that Opinium poll, most of the rest of the recent polls show them around 18%. Which is about half, as I said. It would be nice to have an honest discussion with you for once, but you just can't manage that, can you?

[Kallisto]

https://storage.googleapis.com/d4e-m...l_9tWXv95tOHnM

New tool to help you vote tactically

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That's a no too. It is very very simple...



Compared to EU election polling...



https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-...14th-may-2019/

Halved you say? Dozens of BXP seats in a general election, holding the balance of power, are entirely possible. It is not just me saying it and the pollsters confirm it.

Or since it's been shown that many brexit party are taking votes from the tories it's splitting their vote enough to help Labour and Lib Dems in Tory held areas. Instead of being kingmakers, they're going to basically allow Labour to sneak in it seems. FPTP going against you in this one.

[Gibblewink]

Given the current HoC and their comprehensive abilities when it comes to fucking up and procrastinating beyond all reason, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the UK faceplant out of the EU without a deal.

Not that there can be any real doubt that what Huehuecoyotl is saying is the reasonable outcome.

[Butler to Baby Sloths]

That's a no too. It is very very simple...



Compared to EU election polling...



https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-...14th-may-2019/

Halved you say? Dozens of BXP seats in a general election, holding the balance of power, are entirely possible. It is not just me saying it and the pollsters confirm it.

As Kallisto said, what will actually happen is Labour, SNP and Lib Dems winning previously Tory-held seats due to how FPTP works (Tory vote splits between Tories and BP giving the other parties the numbers they need to take the seats). Then you'll have a Lib-Dem/Labour government that will pass a law on day 1 creating a "no deal, or no brexit" referendum. Or they'll pass a law cancelling Brexit. One of those two, anyway. It'd be passed with a safe majority too, because the SNP doesn't want the UK to leave the EU either.

[Kronik85]

The Grauniad put up an article earlier saying that May was willing to make the compromises needed to get the WA through Parliament but low and behold Brexiteers in the Cabinet fucked it up.

You still have to question May's sanity though, if you can get Grayling to resign and you don't take that option do you have any business being in charge of anything? Brexit has obviously frazzled her, Bez from the Happy Mondays is probably rocking more functioning brain cells at this point.

[dribbles]

And as I said...that's with no manifesto. The second this joke of a one-trick party starts to make policy decisions that go beyond "do Brexit and magic will happen" that number will start dropping. And judging from the kind of people involved in the party, the policy decisions they make are going to be stupid, dangerous and unworkable. And probably fascist. I stand by my view that you will be lucky to get 10-15% in a GE once those policy decisions are made. Assuming that they don't do anything stupid with their funding that gets them banned from the election entirely. I rate that at about a 50-50 chance.

And even if they did hold a "balance of power", what does that mean? That other parties would side with them in going for a no-deal Brexit that would take them down with the Brexit party? It would be Brexit party and whatever is left of the ERG on one side, and everyone else on the other. Even if your numbers held up that won't give you enough to get what you want. It just isn't going to happen.

Let it go dribbles. It's the only way you can ever hope to recover your sanity.

[Edit] I thought those numbers for the GE looked a bit off. Picked pretty much the only outlier poll that showed Brexit that high, eh? More dishonesty from a rank dishonest poster. Apart from that Opinium poll, most of the rest of the recent polls show them around 18%. Which is about half, as I said. It would be nice to have an honest discussion with you for once, but you just can't manage that, can you?

I fear you are clutching at remain unicorns. That poll I linked is quite pessimistic, being a week old, from a Brexit party POV as you can see from the final, again pessimistic, yougov poll released a couple of hours ago prior to tomorrows vote which was sampled before mad Theresa offered a 2nd referendum.

Final YouGov / Times European Election poll

- Brexit party on 37%
- Tories 5th in 7%
- Labour now comfortably 6 points behind the Lib Dems

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/s...72569413267457

Looks like you can add +5% for the BXP to what that gloomy opinium week old poll predicts...still think a party manifesto in this brave new world is critical to getting elected? After all, the Tory party have broken every single one of their 2017 pledges.