Thread: Joe Biden- why?

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  1. #241
    Quote Originally Posted by CryotriX View Post
    All of this really well put together and long post gonna be made irrelevant by his interactions with women. There's just no way he will be able to get around that. (left) Twitter exploded with it today. Dozens of pictures, movies too, from the reactions it was clear some people were seeing them first time, even though they are a meme at this point, very well spread.

    Smelling their hair, caressing, even one random kiss (on the mouth?!???), there's just no way he can manoeuvre past all this, it will be hell for him.
    Current Pres was "grabbing them by the pussy", smelling hair seems pretty fucking innocent at that point.

    Biden will raise far more money than any of his competitors which is key, win the nomination and the Presidency.

  2. #242
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    What did the child-sniffer say about mexicans??

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    Quote Originally Posted by Crispin View Post
    Current Pres was "grabbing them by the pussy", smelling hair seems pretty fucking innocent at that point.

    Biden will raise far more money than any of his competitors which is key, win the nomination and the Presidency.
    U compare touching prostitutes n gold digging skanks to getting handsy with CHILDREN?..

  3. #243
    Quote Originally Posted by Skroe View Post
    If I were a progressive, I'd start paving the road to the mid to late 2020s, and figuring out who is going to be my post-Bernie progressive champion who can win Flordia.

    But then again, I value winning over just feeling good.
    Welcome back!

    As a Bernie supporter (though I wish he would've stayed out honestly), I harbor no illusions or expectations about any parts of my Progressive wishlist being checked off until many, many more Baby Boomers are no longer voting- so I agree that if a Democrat wins in 2020, they won't be able to accomplish much, especially if the geriatric evil chelonian is in charge of the Senate. This is also why I've framed this thread as a concern about the potential problems that the current front-runner could face, and point out that many of the same exact issues also dogged the last candidate to lose to Orange Moron.

    Biden hasn't been very specific as of yet (though apart from Warren, very few people are), so we don't know exactly what his vision is, but as I've pointed out, his record is not just conservative by Progressive standards, it's well to the right of the party establishment today. It's just "common sense" that he's "electable," and I think that the beltway class and other wealthy liberals, cosmopolitan conservatives, and Democratic Party donors would enthusiastically vote for him, but it's the rest of the country I'm not so sure about:
    Can he really win back 'working class white' voters when Trump is constantly yelling about how he supported NAFTA and TPP?
    Can he drive up turnout in Black communities while getting hammered on his efforts in the Drug War and Crime Bill?
    Can he bring younger voters out en masse when there are months of commercials showing him saying "the younger generation now tells me how tough things are- give me a break. No, no, I have no empathy for it, give me a break"?
    Clinton was attacked for her 'closeness' to Wall Street: how does "The Senator from MBNA" avoid the same? (Not to mention he was just the other day defending money in politics)
    Really, he has all of the weaknesses of Clinton, except for a vagina (which in this dumb country is still a weakness). I think it would be incredibly easy to paint him as a "male Hillary-" so while I think he could win, I think his record is out of touch enough with the Democratic Party as a whole that it could depress turnout if it isn't extensively litigated in the primary- which given the number of candidates, could be a real possibility. If Democrats point out the splotches on his record throughout the primary, he defends himself ably, and still convinces voters, that's one thing. But if he gets through the primary on charisma and Obama-stalgia, leaving the GOP to comb over his record, I will be really, really scared that he could go down in flames.

    Maybe a Centrist is a better candidate than a Progressive for 2020: we can reasonably discuss that. And I certainly hope that everybody and their extended family comes out to vote Trump the hell out of office no matter who the Democratic nominee is, but there are plenty of center/center-left candidates that aren't nearly as vulnerable as Biden.
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  4. #244
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    New Monmouth poll shows Bernie Sanders support falling from 25% in March to 15% in May.

    The biggest losses come from the 50+ cohort.
    Dropping from 19% in March to 4% in May.

  5. #245
    Quote Originally Posted by Gestopft View Post
    Welcome back!

    As a Bernie supporter (though I wish he would've stayed out honestly), I harbor no illusions or expectations about any parts of my Progressive wishlist being checked off until many, many more Baby Boomers are no longer voting- so I agree that if a Democrat wins in 2020, they won't be able to accomplish much, especially if the geriatric evil chelonian is in charge of the Senate. This is also why I've framed this thread as a concern about the potential problems that the current front-runner could face, and point out that many of the same exact issues also dogged the last candidate to lose to Orange Moron.

    Biden hasn't been very specific as of yet (though apart from Warren, very few people are), so we don't know exactly what his vision is, but as I've pointed out, his record is not just conservative by Progressive standards, it's well to the right of the party establishment today. It's just "common sense" that he's "electable," and I think that the beltway class and other wealthy liberals, cosmopolitan conservatives, and Democratic Party donors would enthusiastically vote for him, but it's the rest of the country I'm not so sure about:
    Can he really win back 'working class white' voters when Trump is constantly yelling about how he supported NAFTA and TPP?
    Can he drive up turnout in Black communities while getting hammered on his efforts in the Drug War and Crime Bill?
    Can he bring younger voters out en masse when there are months of commercials showing him saying "the younger generation now tells me how tough things are- give me a break. No, no, I have no empathy for it, give me a break"?
    Clinton was attacked for her 'closeness' to Wall Street: how does "The Senator from MBNA" avoid the same? (Not to mention he was just the other day defending money in politics)
    Really, he has all of the weaknesses of Clinton, except for a vagina (which in this dumb country is still a weakness). I think it would be incredibly easy to paint him as a "male Hillary-" so while I think he could win, I think his record is out of touch enough with the Democratic Party as a whole that it could depress turnout if it isn't extensively litigated in the primary- which given the number of candidates, could be a real possibility. If Democrats point out the splotches on his record throughout the primary, he defends himself ably, and still convinces voters, that's one thing. But if he gets through the primary on charisma and Obama-stalgia, leaving the GOP to comb over his record, I will be really, really scared that he could go down in flames.

    Maybe a Centrist is a better candidate than a Progressive for 2020: we can reasonably discuss that. And I certainly hope that everybody and their extended family comes out to vote Trump the hell out of office no matter who the Democratic nominee is, but there are plenty of center/center-left candidates that aren't nearly as vulnerable as Biden.
    I think of the entire pool, Bernie and Biden can easily beat Trump. Beto probably could if he made it out of the primary and didn't sink underwater up to this point. I think in a perfect world, Kamala Harris and Elisabeth Warren could as well, but in the places Trump has to win, both being a woman and Kamala Harris being part black would be net negatives.

    The electoral math is pretty straightforward and won't change for the next year. If Democrats can hold Virgina and Colorado, which they should be able to, they have to win some mix of the of the following four states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvannia. This is the minimalist map, in which they lose both Wisconsin and Arizona.


    By contrast Donald Trump has to win Florida, or it's all over. he also has to win North Carolina and Arizona and two of the four named. There are several permutations. Basically on election night, if he wins Pennsylvannia, he'll probably win re-election unless he loses Florida.

    example:


    In other words, the only Democratic approach that wins is one that wins Pennsylvania - a must win state - and Michigan. If a Democrat wins both of those, he can lose Wisconsin and Arizona and NC and still win.




    In other words, Trump has a narrow path to victory, but he has to win "just" two locations for sure - Florida and Pennsylvannia. Democrats have many more combinations to victory, and more can't lose.

    So who can win in Pennsylvannia and Michigan and Florida? I'd say the most conservative Democrat you can find. The people in Pittsburgh and Philidelphia are going to turn out in droves regardless of who is elected. The Democratic strategy needs to be to ninja some central-PA districts from Trump that he shouldn't lose but does, same with Florida.

    This is much easier with Biden than Bernie. You think Biden has baggage? Bernie trying to make "democratic socialism" and a "political revolution" not sound ridiculous in 2016 turned him into damaged goods. I harshly criticized him for that in 2016, because trying to win on restoring the reputation of damaged words or phrases is a fools errand. America has plenty of "socialism" - Social Security, Medicare, Public Schools - but you call it socialism and people get stupid. The way to winning isn't to make them think "oh you know, Socialism is good". The way to win is rebrand the scary thing into the new thing. This might be why, for example, Medicare-for-all hasn't cut more support. Fucking with Medicare is a red flag to people whose votes will be needed to elected people in favor of Medicare for all.

    Fact is, last time Biden was on the ballot, he and Obama went 4 for 4 on the rust belt states. And he is more liberal than progressives are pretending him to sudenly not be. I spent years discussing his foreign policy idiocy around here. Many of the bad ideas of the Obama Administration's foreign policy that opened the door to China and Russia came from him and people in his orbit, who had a difficult time dealing with the fact that their post-Great Power conflict world wasn't gonna happen.

    But the thing is, running as a centrist, or even a conservative Democrat, will likely peel of just enough people who held their nose and voted for Trump the last time. Remember: Democrats lost all those states very narrowly with Hillary fucking Clinton. It wasn't a blow out. It was a narrow loss.

    Biden will fare better. Because he has a dick. Because his last name isn't Clinton. Because Republicans haven't sent the past 10 years at war against him. Because he can speak the working class language and sound believable. Hell, he can even talk about his son who went to war, a common feature in those central PA rust belt communities he'll have to win.

    The mistake Democrats always make... and I speak as someone who has rejoiced in years of seeing Democrats get pummeled at the polls... is they think that reason and logic win win over people. No. Voting is an issue of the heart, not the brain. Bernie or any progressive appealing to people's reason is a dead end. They'll never win. Most Americans have what they perceive as too much to lose (even if it not nearly as much as they should otherwise have) and will emotionally vote for the person who says "I'll give you m ore of what you have". That's why Trump's simple message won over Hillary's complex one. And that's why a progressive policy list is just another ticket to defeat.

    The point is, Bernie or Biden or anybody else, needs to get in these communities and truly convince them, at an emotional level, they're understood and that the would-be President is one of them. Then make hollow promises that speak to that emotional drive. I think Biden can do this better than Bernie. Bernie could do it fine too, if he wanted to. It would require him not die on stupid hills, like trying to de-stigmatize Democratic Socialism. But he could.

    But Biden can do that more effortlessly.

    I want Trump out of office, and then prosecuted. I want the rule of law restored to this country and justice done upon the traitorous White House. I've said before, I'd vote for a Cabbage with a (D) next to it for President. It's irrelevant. But in order to win, we'll all, as a group of people here, and more broadly, people very interested in seeing Trump in an orange jump suit, be wasting a lot of time we just debate the finer points of policy as it appeals to us. If the policy or political approach isn't tailor made to win the 4 named rust belt states, then it's irrelevant. It's as simple as that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Slacker76 View Post
    New Monmouth poll shows Bernie Sanders support falling from 25% in March to 15% in May.

    The biggest losses come from the 50+ cohort.
    Dropping from 19% in March to 4% in May.
    No small part of this comes from the fact that there were two real progressive choices in 2016. In 2020 there will probably be three to four.

    Like last time, it won't be decided until Super Tuesday (March 3rd 2020), but if, at current voting numbers, both Harris and Sanders stay in the race (and they probably will) along with Elisabeth Warren (who possibly will), it'll just divide the progressive vote so many ways that Biden wins because of that alone.

  6. #246
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    And losing the center would be vastly more damaging.
    Running as Republican-Lite didn't work for them last time. Let's do it again!

    Smart.

  7. #247
    At this point, it doesn't matter who you elect, the USA is going down the drain regardless at some point.

    Extremism there has already hit critical mass and there's no stopping until there's a huge reset by way of a civil war and/or a one-sided massacre.
    "My successes are my own, but my failures are due to extremist leftist liberals" - Party of Personal Responsibility

    Prediction for the future

  8. #248
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    And if you actually look around the world you'll find that center-left parties that prioritized the left lost far more than center-left parties that did so with the middle. Largely because the moderates might actually vote for the opposing party if they feel disenfranchised while the left will just not show up. And you are fighting against a right party that can far more afford to move a bit towards the center because the right side will vote for it to keep the center left out at all costs because it is more important to them to keep the other out than to be petulant over ideological purity.

    Feel free to test it, the financial disaster that Trump has begun for the rest of the world is NOT going to be fixed by a different US President anyway who will rightly only give a shit about the US and not the crap they once again propagated to the rest of the planet so I'll be happy to see you suffer a bit more.
    Other countries? You mean like Australia where their right wing party is pretty much in line with US Democrats? Democrats aren't center-left, they're right wing.

    But hey, if corrupt corporate democrats didn't get the message that they weren't wanted then I guess we're going to have to endure another 4 years of Trump. Thanks for that.

  9. #249
    All of the models giving Trump a chance to win (against any of the dems) would make sense if he had been a decent president. He's been complete shit. Even if there were zero scandals, he's still done a terrible job. But, there are scandals. Dozens upon dozens of scandals. Everything ranging from idiotic fuck ups to criminal activity. And not just Trump, but people he's appointed as well.

    By any reasonable measure Trump has had one of the worst and most corrupt administrations in modern history. And we still have another 1.5 years of more fucking up to witness. He will not get the same votes he did in 2016.

    The only people who think Trump has done well are the far right brainwashed crowd that will always vote republican no matter what. That's not enough.

  10. #250
    Quote Originally Posted by Skroe View Post
    I think of the entire pool, Bernie and Biden can easily beat Trump. Beto probably could if he made it out of the primary and didn't sink underwater up to this point. I think in a perfect world, Kamala Harris and Elisabeth Warren could as well, but in the places Trump has to win, both being a woman and Kamala Harris being part black would be net negatives.
    I was hoping that Sherrod Brown would run. A Midwesterner that holds his seat in a red state would be a force to be reckoned with.

    Quote Originally Posted by Skroe View Post
    This is much easier with Biden than Bernie. You think Biden has baggage?
    Which is also why I've tried to frame this thread as 'Biden vs (x)' and not just 'Biden vs Bernie' though that's where it's mostly gone. I just can't help but wonder if one of the other middle-of-the-road candidates achieved the name recognition of Biden that they'd be a far better choice.

    Quote Originally Posted by Skroe View Post
    But the thing is, running as a centrist, or even a conservative Democrat, will likely peel of just enough people who held their nose and voted for Trump the last time. Remember: Democrats lost all those states very narrowly with Hillary fucking Clinton. It wasn't a blow out. It was a narrow loss.
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    And losing the center would be vastly more damaging.
    If only I trusted the Democratic Party to actually find the center. But they seem to think that this means "center-right on everything," when data shows the public to be center/center-right on cultural and identity issues, but center-left on economic issues. (Of course for either party, finding the economic center would require losing out on lots of donor money, which is in my view a significant part of why we are where we are.)

    Quote Originally Posted by Skroe View Post
    So who can win in Pennsylvannia and Michigan and Florida? I'd say the most conservative Democrat you can find. The people in Pittsburgh and Philidelphia are going to turn out in droves regardless of who is elected. The Democratic strategy needs to be to ninja some central-PA districts from Trump that he shouldn't lose but does, same with Florida.
    Question about Florida: to what do you attribute the fact that Andrew Gillum and Bill Nelson lost by almost exactly the same margin? Gillum being a black Sanders-backed Progressive, and Nelson a more moderate incumbent. Where were the "center" voters that found Nelson more palatable than Gillum?

    Quote Originally Posted by Skroe View Post
    I want Trump out of office, and then prosecuted. I want the rule of law restored to this country and justice done upon the traitorous White House. I've said before, I'd vote for a Cabbage with a (D) next to it for President.
    Definitely Cabbage. Neither Kale nor Arugula would have enough appeal to rural voters.
    Last edited by Gestopft; 2019-05-24 at 08:12 AM.
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  11. #251
    Quote Originally Posted by Gestopft View Post


    Question about Florida: to what do you attribute the fact that Andrew Gillum and Bill Nelson lost by almost exactly the same margin? Gillum being a black Sanders-backed Progressive, and Nelson a more moderate incumbent. Where were the "center" voters that found Nelson more palatable than Gillum?
    I think there are little lessons to be gained about Florida in the 2018 election.

    First and foremost, Bill Nelson is an asshole. The other Democrats who lost in 2018 didn't deserve to lose. Bill Nelson deserved to lose.

    The Rick Scott political machine that he built up from stratch has been reknown among political circles as one of the best in the country, if not the best. Better than Trump's. Better than Clinton's. Better than Sanders. It's lavishly funded, extremely well managed and high tech. It keeps allowing Rick Scott, who is not popular in Florida, to win election, because it has perfectly tuned itself around finding salient data, putting money and manpower to problems and getting out enough votes in just the right places. It's been a thing to be feared since Rick Scott's first election.

    Bill Nelson sat on his ass in the campaign. He barely campaigned until mid-August. He barely tried to raise money. He figured his long tenure as Senator would protect him against an unpopular governor, so he didn't take the machine seriously. And the machine ground him to bits.

    Bill Nelson could have won that campaign and defeated the machine Rick Scott built. He came within a narrow margin of doing it. He CHOSE not to, by treating Rick Scott like some random loser, rather than the guy at the top of the best political operation in the United States.

    And now Florida will be stuck with Rick Scott, a close Trump ally, probably forever. Democrats have lost a seat they badly needed, because Bill Nelson was lazy. I hope progressives realize the magnitude of this fuck up. The only reason Obama had 60 votes in the Senate early 2009 was because Democrats benefited from a wave election 2008 on top of a generational transition. There were lots of "Red State" Democrats who won their seats in the 1980s and 1990s who still held them in 2009. They may have been conservative Democrats, but they gave Harry Reid the majority. They're almost all gone now. It will take 20 years to replace them.

    In order to get back a Florida seat, a Democrat now will have to defeat Rick Scott. Good luck on that one. They could alternative defeat Marco Rubio, who is extraordinarily well funded. So insofar as finding 60 votes in the Senate for Democrats, there is no Florida option until well after 2030.

    In short, Gillum lost because Florida is really a Red State that sometimes votes Democratic. It's not a true purple state. And certainly not a state that has enough progressive votes. Gillum perhaps would have won if he had been more centrist. In that regard, he is likely a good microcosm of Bernie, and the country. Nelson lost because he decided to putz around and take his seat for granted.

    The Democratic Party problems in Florida go very deep though. Reportedly, it's a shit show. Consultancy groups and contractors which promise big, but deliver little. A patch work organization that doesn't hold people accountable. Money dispaearing into a black hole.

    And that's what it comes down to. Money. Florida is the most important electoral state in the union by far. Trump basically can't win without it. No Republican can. Democrats path to victory is extremely easy with it. There is a huge incentive for both parties to put enormous resources there. Thusly there is a huge amount of money going there. And a lot of it, particularly on the Democratic side in recent years, has gone to abject failures, grifters and sham operations who say their job is to win elections, but really, they're there to make money off elections. For his party, Mitt Romney went through this in 2012 with his "data team", a contracted group, that spun bullshit numbers because they paid him well. His internal polling said he'd win, because the people he was paying were delivering a product.

    If Democrats can somehow win Florida in 2020, defeating Trump is very easy. But their operation there has been such a shit show for so many years now - Obama himself barely won there against easy opponents - I would not seriously consider any map that has it in the blue column. I'd call Florida a reach goal, at best. Democrats should count on Trump winning it.

    Does that mean they should discount it though? No. They need to fix the shit show of an operation there in the medium term and more important in the short term, make Trump dump outrageous resources in holding in. Make him choose between Florida and Pennsylvania. But the fact that Florida will still likely go to THIS President just underscored how diseased the Democratic approach is there, regardless of who is winning.

  12. #252
    Banned JohnBrown1917's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacien View Post
    Because he's palatable. Believe it or not, most people not dedicated to one side or the other actually like them some Joe Biden. He's normal. People like normal.

    - - - Updated - - -



    I think he is. Republicans would do well to fear him. A far left (for America) candidate? Much less to be afraid of.
    Bernie is the only center-leftwinger in the race, who are those far left candidates you speak off?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Give Sethrak Blizz View Post
    To own both the leftists and cons.
    Owning the conservative by electing one.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Slacker76 View Post
    I wonder if the BErnie-or-Busters will pick up on this. In 2016 they were all about "after 4 years of Trump, the masses will be begging for Bernie."

    Here we are a few years into Trump ... Biden is the front runner.

    The hard left never realizes how much they need the center-left or a Biden in the current framework.
    So.... Bernie?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacien View Post
    I guess I just mean for the non-diehard Trump voters, which I think is something like 30%. The rest of the people who voted for him either thought Hillary was terrible, or plugged their nose. Or both.

    How he rose to get the nomination was a moment in time.
    So get somebody worse than Clinton instead?


    lol

  13. #253
    Quote Originally Posted by Skroe View Post
    I think of the entire pool, Bernie and Biden can easily beat Trump.
    You said Hillary could easily beat Trump and we know how that went.

  14. #254
    Banned JohnBrown1917's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    And if you actually look around the world you'll find that center-left parties that prioritized the left lost far more than center-left parties that did so with the middle. Largely because the moderates might actually vote for the opposing party if they feel disenfranchised while the left will just not show up. And you are fighting against a right party that can far more afford to move a bit towards the center because the right side will vote for it to keep the center left out at all costs because it is more important to them to keep the other out than to be petulant over ideological purity.

    Feel free to test it, the financial disaster that Trump has begun for the rest of the world is NOT going to be fixed by a different US President anyway who will rightly only give a shit about the US and not the crap they once again propagated to the rest of the planet so I'll be happy to see you suffer a bit more.
    What reality do you live in? All the center left parties that went to the center have only been losing popularity. Just look at the various soc dem/labour parties in Europe.

  15. #255
    Quote Originally Posted by zenkai View Post
    You said Hillary could easily beat Trump and we know how that went.
    Silly me for not having the foresight to predict Russia would attack the United States in 2016 through the intelligence operation you've spent the past two and a half years downplaying.

    Nice patriotism you got there.

    Oh sorry that's not your patriotism. That's a puff of smoke. My mistake.

  16. #256
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wyrt View Post
    Biden is right wing, not center-left. Bernie is center-left.

    You're basically asking why left wing people don't want to vote for a right wing politician. Seems pretty obvious why they wouldn't want to.
    Biden is centrist, but can be moved to the left through the primary. He represents safe, sane, solid leadership, and a return to normalcy. I think he has the overwhelmingly best shot of beating Trump in 2020 of any of the Democrat choices, even if he's one of the least 'sexy'(progressive) choices out there, and not at the top of my list.

    I think after 4 years of Trump's circus, the 40% of those more or less in the middle, are craving someone like Biden.
    Last edited by Fahrenheit; 2019-05-24 at 12:41 PM.
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  17. #257
    Quote Originally Posted by Skroe View Post
    Silly me for not having the foresight to predict Russia would attack the United States in 2016 through the intelligence operation you've spent the past two and a half years downplaying.

    Nice patriotism you got there.

    Oh sorry that's not your patriotism. That's a puff of smoke. My mistake.
    Don't worry. China will sink the next one so you don't look silly doing your second failure of pretending to be Nate Silver.

  18. #258
    Quote Originally Posted by Dextroden View Post
    Don't worry. China will sink the next one so you don't look silly doing your second failure of pretending to be Nate Silver.
    Nice illustration about the paucity of your patriotism to think that's a joking matter, regardless of any candidate's political standing.

  19. #259
    Quote Originally Posted by Skroe View Post
    Nice illustration about the paucity of your patriotism to think that's a joking matter, regardless of any candidate's political standing.
    America: If you didn't win, it was because of cheating.

  20. #260
    Quote Originally Posted by Skroe View Post
    Silly me for not having the foresight to predict Russia would attack the United States in 2016 through the intelligence operation you've spent the past two and a half years downplaying.

    Nice patriotism you got there.

    Oh sorry that's not your patriotism. That's a puff of smoke. My mistake.
    Even after the DNC email leaked you still said Trump had no chance.

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