Azure drake mount drop chance

[Jalatiphra]

got them both in one chest - 4th try or so^^

[Kharadin]

"Should" is not "must". "Should" denotes that something is likely or expected which is a perfectly fine way to describe something extremely probable. Was it "must" then you'd be technically correct.

Didn't you just complain about my pedantry? You're a funny guy.

Let me reformulate my statement: Should means absolutely nothing. It doesn't matter what should happen. It did not happen. Go back to farming.

Are you happy now?

[Azerate]

It's not high enough of an attempt count to say for sure it's bugged yet, and even if it is bugged, you will never get recognition for it and it will probably never be fixed anyway, so all you can do is keep trying.

Azure Drake is also pretty old, so the chances of it getting bugged recently are pretty low. If it were one of the newly converted raids to the new legacy loot, it would be more likely. Like right now Guldan and Blackhand mounts are highly suspected for being bugged by the farming community, but any kind of reports are disregarded by incompetent GMs who just brush everything of as "it's rare mate". Because of the nature of these drops, it's always easier to say you just got unlucky rather than actually consider that there is a problem.

At least it's quick to farm.

[Schizoide]

For whatever reason I got the azure at well over 100 runs also, while the blue came in very quickly. Like others said, it's all RNG.

[Zyrinx]

Does EoE still have 10/25man?

Because Azure only dropped on 25man (Blue drops on both). I don't know if raid size is still a thing for WotLK raids, I haven't been in one in forever.

[Ezekeel]

I got it a month ago or something. I casually did it with three characters from time to time and yes, I think it dropped before I did it 50 times in total, much later than the other one dropped. I think it is best to farm without actually expecting it to drop. Just stop doing it for a while to prevent burnout.

Does EoE still have 10/25man?

Because Azure only dropped on 25man (Blue drops on both). I don't know if raid size is still a thing for WotLK raids, I haven't been in one in forever.

They still exist for legacy raids, but as far as remember, both mounts drop from 10m now. I think I got one from 10m.

[Battlebeard]

It's 1% like all other raid mounts. I feel your pain. While I was lucky and got Invicible on 4th solokill back in MoP as well as head of mimiron within 20 kills, it took me about 500 kills to get the Blazing drake from dragon soul and now I am close to 400 kills on Jikun in ToT without a mount drop

[Ozyorkbourne]

Wowhead says azure drake is 2-3% drop chance, and on wowwiki it says 9-10%. I started around 1-2 years ago farming it, with 12 chars each week. I think I have way more tries on it though, since I didnt install the addon that show attempts when I started.

Each run is independent and every other run has zero impact on the possibility/probability of the mount dropping in another run. You're terribly unlucky, but that's all.

[rogoth]

Wowhead shows a 2-3% chance. You'll never have a guaranteed chance no matter how many runs, but you can calculate probability 1-((1-x)^y ) where x is the drop chance and y is attempts. If you assume 2%, then there's a 99.98313% chance at seeing it over 430 runs. Assuming 3%, it goes up to 99.99979%. If all the information is correct, you are the unlucky 0.02-0.0002% of people who won't have gotten it, so that in itself is pretty impressive!

3 things that make any and all information related to this mount totally inaccurate:

1) it used to be exclusive to the 25 man difficulty back in wrath so the data is not accurate due to having the old numbers and new numbers mixed together.

2) it now competes with the blue drake drop which used to be from the 10 man version of the raid making it statistically less likely to drop as more stuff was added to the loot pool than it used to have.

3) all mount drops unless stated otherwise (at least from older content) have a 1% drop rate the only exceptions to this used to be the rivendare deathcharger which had a sub 1% drop rate which was buffed up to 1% based on your rep standing with the argent dawn, and fiery warhorse reins from og karazhan.

so yeah it sucks for OP but RNG is RNG.

[Therionq]

2) it now competes with the blue drake drop which used to be from the 10 man version of the raid making it statistically less likely to drop as more stuff was added to the loot pool than it used to have.

Wrong.
They don't compete. Each mount is on a separate roll and can both drop at once.

[Huntaer]

Pray to this guy:

[conceptKitty]

I'm at 90 something tries. Still waiting.

[rogoth]

Wrong.
They don't compete. Each mount is on a separate roll and can both drop at once.

so you didn't understand what i said?, regardless of the fact they are independent drops from each other the fact that they are now on the same loot table as each other means that you have statistically less chance of seeing ONE OR BOTH of them now compared to how it used to be back in the day this is a fact, why you think this is wrong i dunno.

[AlmightyGerkin]

Trick I find that somehow works is do your own thing and run it completely unexpected. Happened to me with icc as had invincible drop without even caring and next week dropped again but had to discard it. Finally got the weapon demise from naxx just by not caring. Either lucky or rng takes pity on me. Sadly wont give me black hands or archimondes mount.

[Nathanyel]

That's pretty shitty though. If it is a 3% chance the chance of not getting it after 430 tries is like, 0,000205%

Which, considering [several] million players, still is bound to happen for many of them.

[Urtgard]

so you didn't understand what i said?, regardless of the fact they are independent drops from each other the fact that they are now on the same loot table as each other means that you have statistically less chance of seeing ONE OR BOTH of them now compared to how it used to be back in the day this is a fact, why you think this is wrong i dunno.

You didn't understand what Therionq said.

Assuming the chance is and was 1%:
The chance to get mount A is 1% and the chance to get mount B is 1%. Both are independent rolls.

Therefore the chance to see one or both mounts is: 0.01*0.99*2 + 0.01*0.01 = 0.0199 ≈ 2%

And 2% > 1%. If the old droprate really was higher you're correct though.

[Nathanyel]

[...] If the old droprate really was higher [...]

...which I strongly doubt.

[Therionq]

so you didn't understand what i said?, regardless of the fact they are independent drops from each other the fact that they are now on the same loot table as each other means that you have statistically less chance of seeing ONE OR BOTH of them now compared to how it used to be back in the day this is a fact, why you think this is wrong i dunno.

Why do you think there's a lower chance now?

I don't remember the exact amount of items that drop (let it be X) but both mounts act as additional items and they're independent rolls. When you kill the boss you get X items and a chance for each mount which makes X+2 the maximum amount of items you can get. They do not compete. It's not like you get one piece of gear less if the mount drops.

[Escobar19]

At least i farmed it with a demonology warlock, which at that time had hellfire spell, with an extra 50% aura radius, which made the farming incredibly fast

[Loeve]

Just wanted to say I got the mount today and thanks for believing in me!

ONLY 453 attempts!!