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  1. #1

    The [American] Economic Expansion Turns 10!

    Happy 10th anniversary, growing economy!

    The U.S. economy has been growing for nearly ten years. Assuming that trend continues through July, that will break the record for the longest expansion in U.S. history. While the country has recovered a lot since the end of the Great Recession, some important indicators point to an economy that's still struggling.

    Today on The Indicator, just how big a deal is a decade of economic growth? We'll tell you some ways this expansion has been impressive and some ways it has fallen short.

    (podcast)

    https://www.npr.org/2019/06/17/73349...nsion-turns-10

    At least Trump didn't stop the expansion; you have to give him that much.

    Usually the economy is a big issue for voters. However, after 10 years of growth, the issue might've fell off of voter's radar.

    How much effect will a healthy economy have in the 2020 elections?
    .

    "This will be a fight against overwhelming odds from which survival cannot be expected. We will do what damage we can."

    -- Capt. Copeland

  2. #2
    The Unstoppable Force Ghostpanther's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by freefolk View Post
    At least Trump didn't stop the expansion; you have to give him that much.

    Usually the economy is a big issue for voters. However, after 10 years of growth, the issue might've fell off of voter's radar.

    How much effect will a healthy economy have in the 2020 elections?
    A lot.

    It ranks right there with health care, immigration, as the top 3 concerns of the voters.
    " If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher.." - Abraham Lincoln
    The Constitution be never construed to authorize Congress to - prevent the people of the United States, who are peaceable citizens, from keeping their own arms..” - Samuel Adams

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by freefolk View Post
    At least Trump didn't stop the expansion; you have to give him that much.

    Usually the economy is a big issue for voters. However, after 10 years of growth, the issue might've fell off of voter's radar.

    How much effect will a healthy economy have in the 2020 elections?
    Certainly not for lack of trying on his part.

    And Trump isn't credit for the economy. The 2020 election is a referendum on if people want another 4 years of the Donald Trump Troll Show, and nothing more. It's not the economy stupid.
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ad/3756886002/

    WASHINGTON — A newly released Quinnipiac University Poll shows that that favorable feelings about the economy aren't helping President Donald Trump's approval ratings — even though the state of the economy is one of his favorite talking points. It also shows that Joe Biden has the highest favorability ratings among the Democratic field.

    According to the poll, 71% of the voters say that the economy is "good" or "excellent," the highest proportion of favorable feelings on the economy in nearly 18 years of Quinnipiac's polling.

    Last month's economic data showed that unemployment in the United States had fallen to 3.6%, a 50-year low. That said, 45% of voters disapproved of Trump's handling of the economy, while 48% approved.

    “The nation’s economy is pretty darn good and President Donald Trump’s approval numbers are pretty darn awful,” Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, said in a statement.

    These good feelings about the economy haven't helped Trump's approval ratings. They're still lower compared to presidents with similarly well-performing economies.

    Only 38% of voters approve of Trump, and 57% disapprove. Going into 2020, 54% of voters say that they "definitely" will not vote to re-elect Trump.


  4. #4
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    It's still a big deal. 10 years of growth does NOT equal a 'healthy economy', because that growth is not evenly applied and not everyone is seeing any benefit from it.

    People care about their individual personal economic picture, not the overall country. Steelworkers in the midwest who are just hearing about furnaces being idled are not going to take any comfort in hearing that tech companies on the west coast are booming, because none of that money is going to help them in any way.

  5. #5
    It's already showing big signs of slowing. Corporate mergers, huge layoffs by big companies, buy ups, sell offs, bankruptcies, closings, I read it every day. Wages are still TERRRRRIBLE for the amount of hours of work. Give it a year 2 and see how bad it'll be then.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Galactis View Post
    It's already showing big signs of slowing. Corporate mergers, huge layoffs by big companies, buy ups, sell offs, bankruptcies, closings, I read it every day. Wages are still TERRRRRIBLE for the amount of hours of work. Give it a year 2 and see how bad it'll be then.
    Hmmm. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ay-study-shows
    " If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher.." - Abraham Lincoln
    The Constitution be never construed to authorize Congress to - prevent the people of the United States, who are peaceable citizens, from keeping their own arms..” - Samuel Adams

  7. #7
    S&P 500 hits record as Wall Street bets the Fed will lower interest rates, Dow rises 160 points

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/20/stoc...cut-hopes.html
    .

    "This will be a fight against overwhelming odds from which survival cannot be expected. We will do what damage we can."

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  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by freefolk View Post
    S&P 500 hits record as Wall Street bets the Fed will lower interest rates, Dow rises 160 points

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/20/stoc...cut-hopes.html
    Both not true. Glassdoor reports what businesses and people tell them to report. I can tell you right now, that the inflation and costs of goods have increased more than the income wage has increased. Therefore net decrease in purchasing power. Which means, STAGNANT or worse wages.

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    Quote Originally Posted by freefolk View Post
    S&P 500 hits record as Wall Street bets the Fed will lower interest rates, Dow rises 160 points

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/20/stoc...cut-hopes.html
    The economy is booming and with wage growth increasing and low employment of 3.6%, we have reached the point of more job openings then the available number of people currently unemployed. Once a China trade deal is reached and the tariffs are balanced, then we will see even a greater economy. Some companies are closing shop in China and moving back to the US. Such as Black & Decker, which just announced they are opening a new plant in Texas, to move their operations from China to the US.
    " If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher.." - Abraham Lincoln
    The Constitution be never construed to authorize Congress to - prevent the people of the United States, who are peaceable citizens, from keeping their own arms..” - Samuel Adams

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    https://www.wsj.com/articles/stocks-...ip-11561017273

    So the fed is considering lowering interest rates, something Trump has been trying to pressure them to do for awhile. After all, Trump loves borrowing money, and lower interest rates means the amount he owes isn't as much. Not that he repays debts. Trump has countless accounts that have gone unpaid for years, even decades. However, is the fed considering this in response to Trump's pressure? Well, it might be due to Trump, but not because of Trump asking.

    The fed says that if things do not improve soon, then there will likely be an economic downturn in the near future. At which point, they will drop interest rates. So the fed, the US's economic powerhouse, says that an economic downturn is coming. Prepare for the great Trump recession everyone. As if Trump hadn't already killed his chances of being reelected already, an economic downturn will be the killing blow. Of course Republicans will blame it on the next president, just like they blamed Obama on the 2007 recession.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Butter Emails View Post
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/stocks-...ip-11561017273

    So the fed is considering lowering interest rates, something Trump has been trying to pressure them to do for awhile. After all, Trump loves borrowing money, and lower interest rates means the amount he owes isn't as much. Not that he repays debts. Trump has countless accounts that have gone unpaid for years, even decades. However, is the fed considering this in response to Trump's pressure? Well, it might be due to Trump, but not because of Trump asking.

    The fed says that if things do not improve soon, then there will likely be an economic downturn in the near future. At which point, they will drop interest rates. So the fed, the US's economic powerhouse, says that an economic downturn is coming. Prepare for the great Trump recession everyone. As if Trump hadn't already killed his chances of being reelected already, an economic downturn will be the killing blow. Of course Republicans will blame it on the next president, just like they blamed Obama on the 2007 recession.
    I agree with that. The rest will take time to prove. But if the economy continues to do well and improve even, it will give him a better chance at getting reelected. Those who do not want that to happen, maybe wish the economy tanks before Nov. 2020?
    " If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher.." - Abraham Lincoln
    The Constitution be never construed to authorize Congress to - prevent the people of the United States, who are peaceable citizens, from keeping their own arms..” - Samuel Adams

  12. #12
    Isn't unemployment really low because there was some legislation put into play that meant employers had to look after full time employees better so they just sacked them all* and took on twice as many part time staff to avoid paying to look after any full time employees. So while more people have jobs, fewer jobs are actually giving enough hours to survive on, or is that all myth?
    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
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  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by AeneasBK View Post
    Isn't unemployment really low because there was some legislation put into play that meant employers had to look after full time employees better so they just sacked them all* and took on twice as many part time staff to avoid paying to look after any full time employees. So while more people have jobs, fewer jobs are actually giving enough hours to survive on, or is that all myth?
    That is correct. Been that way for the last 10 years. Unemployment doesn't account for part time or full time. Just counts people with jobs.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Butter Emails View Post
    The fed says that if things do not improve soon, then there will likely be an economic downturn in the near future. At which point, they will drop interest rates. So the fed, the US's economic powerhouse, says that an economic downturn is coming. Prepare for the great Trump recession everyone. As if Trump hadn't already killed his chances of being reelected already, an economic downturn will be the killing blow. Of course Republicans will blame it on the next president, just like they blamed Obama on the 2007 recession.
    Oh the downturn is coming, and it's coming sooner than a lot of people imagine. Transportation is almost always the last to feel any effects of a downturn, because people still buy their stuff and companies still need their materials for manufacturing. Almost all class 1 railroads as well as many trucking companies are showing losses from last year between 2-5% depending on shipments. That's huge when determining car loads and shipments in tonnage.

    We're on track for worse than the 2008 Recession, but chances are it'll happen just soon enough that Trump and his Cult will blame it on Democrat Obstructionism in the House.
    “You're not to be so blind with patriotism that you can't face reality. Wrong is wrong, no matter who does it or says it.”― Malcolm X

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  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Galactis View Post
    That is correct. Been that way for the last 10 years. Unemployment doesn't account for part time or full time. Just counts people with jobs.
    I had thought it was something about having to pay for employees healthcare (or towards it if not in full obviously) so a lot of employers, rather than pony up for this, just cut their full time staffs hours in half so they only qualified as part time, and then took on more people. The only reason I asked if it was a myth is because the low employment rate comes up a lot when talking about the strength of the American economy at the moment, and I thought it would be very disingenuous to not mention that alongside it. Better that you have 10% unemployment but that the people working actually have jobs that can support them than 0% unemployment but 20% of those are having to beg/steal/borrow to get by.
    Last edited by AeneasBK; 2019-06-20 at 09:31 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    Posting here is primarily a way to strengthen your own viewpoint against common counter-arguments.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Captain N View Post
    Oh the downturn is coming, and it's coming sooner than a lot of people imagine. Transportation is almost always the last to feel any effects of a downturn, because people still buy their stuff and companies still need their materials for manufacturing. Almost all class 1 railroads as well as many trucking companies are showing losses from last year between 2-5% depending on shipments. That's huge when determining car loads and shipments in tonnage.

    We're on track for worse than the 2008 Recession, but chances are it'll happen just soon enough that Trump and his Cult will blame it on Democrat Obstructionism in the House.
    I think the build up is a lot slower this time but, it's coming very soon. The big banks are still doing the same thing with the loss of Glass Steagall they were in 2007-08. Housing market is inflated to high hell, wages stagnant, meanwhile, reports of layoffs, bankruptcies, and mergers are already happening. News articles of big companies buying up other big companies left and right. I can't wait so people are stuck with big gas guzzling trucks and suvs again like they were in the 90's 2000's people are very dumb. Problem is now, most people are worse off than they were 10 years ago.

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    The Unstoppable Force Ghostpanther's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AeneasBK View Post
    Isn't unemployment really low because there was some legislation put into play that meant employers had to look after full time employees better so they just sacked them all* and took on twice as many part time staff to avoid paying to look after any full time employees. So while more people have jobs, fewer jobs are actually giving enough hours to survive on, or is that all myth?
    Here is a web site which explains the unemployment rate and how it is conducted. https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm The unemployment rate is overall, a good tool for business to use in reference to how confident they feel the economy is. Even part time work during the holidays is calculated differently in order to come up with a more realistic rate. The current 3.6 % unemployment rates is one sign the economy is healthy.
    " If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher.." - Abraham Lincoln
    The Constitution be never construed to authorize Congress to - prevent the people of the United States, who are peaceable citizens, from keeping their own arms..” - Samuel Adams

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Galactis View Post
    Both not true. Glassdoor reports what businesses and people tell them to report. I can tell you right now, that the inflation and costs of goods have increased more than the income wage has increased. Therefore net decrease in purchasing power. Which means, STAGNANT or worse wages.

    Write CNBC a letter. Give them hell!
    .

    "This will be a fight against overwhelming odds from which survival cannot be expected. We will do what damage we can."

    -- Capt. Copeland

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Ghostpanther View Post
    Here is a web site which explains the unemployment rate and how it is conducted. https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm The unemployment rate is overall, a good tool for business to use in reference to how confident they feel the economy is. Even part time work during the holidays is calculated differently in order to come up with a more realistic rate. The current 3.6 % unemployment rates is one sign the economy is healthy.
    The real Unemployment rate is closer to about 6.5% Currently April.

  20. #20
    The Unstoppable Force Ghostpanther's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Galactis View Post
    The real Unemployment rate is closer to about 6.5% Currently April.
    Proof. Or it is just your opinion. And you will have to use a source other than one which has a record hating Trump.

    And it is the one reported by the labor dept. which shows if the economy is good or not.
    " If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher.." - Abraham Lincoln
    The Constitution be never construed to authorize Congress to - prevent the people of the United States, who are peaceable citizens, from keeping their own arms..” - Samuel Adams

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