The [American] Economic Expansion Turns 10!

[Rasulis]

It's still a big deal. 10 years of growth does NOT equal a 'healthy economy', because that growth is not evenly applied and not everyone is seeing any benefit from it.

People care about their individual personal economic picture, not the overall country. Steelworkers in the midwest who are just hearing about furnaces being idled are not going to take any comfort in hearing that tech companies on the west coast are booming, because none of that money is going to help them in any way.

There is a lot of truth to this. The latest US Bureau of Economic Analysis GDP numbers shows that eight western states plus TX and FL drove US economy in 2018. California GDP grew by 0.25 trillion to 3.02 trillion. It went from 14.1% of US GDP to 14.5%.

[Felya]

There is a lot of truth to this. The latest US Bureau of Economic Analysis GDP numbers shows that eight western states plus TX and FL drove US economy in 2018. California GDP grew by 0.25 trillion to 3.02 trillion. It went from 14.1% of US GDP to 14.5%.

Uhm... We (WA) nearly had the growth of Texas and Florida... combined... they drove it?

[Spectral]

Both not true. Glassdoor reports what businesses and people tell them to report.

They report what businesses and people tell them to report? The fuckers. Imagine doing that. I can't imagine reporting what businesses and people say to report.

[Vash The Stampede]

it has not boomed for 17 months now.

we keep hitting the same "records" that were hit in jan 2018

That is kinda a bear market, as in nothing decreases. A bust should have happened long ago.

[Omega10]

Uhm... We (WA) nearly had the growth of Texas and Florida... combined... they drove it?

Amazon's second (third?) HQ ended up being Bellevue, Washington.... just across the lake from Seattle.

Have you been in Bellevue lately? The buildings are MUCH taller than before. Down side is traffic is MUCH worse. In Bothel, 15 minutes north, you can't get a decent house for a family of 3 for 600k.

This does not include all of the other companies that have moved to downtown Seattle and downtown Bellevue. There is a lot of banking business in the Everett and Seattle area. Money is coming to the Seattle area.

There is a reason for the homeless problem. Lots of new people with lots of money buying up all the housing. We COULD build more housing (they are trying)… but then how do you have enough roads and sewage and water for all of these people?

The Seattle area gets bad headlines or no headlines. We need to do a better job of getting the word out that SEATTLE IS A HORRIBLE TERRIBLE PLACE TO MOVE HERE. STAY AWAY!!! <Just kidding, my wife and I are happy to be here >

The Seattle area has grown in a HUGE way. My wife and I have been beneficiaries of this growth. OK not as much as others, but we are doing pretty well for ourselves

[Rasulis]

Uhm... We (WA) nearly had the growth of Texas and Florida... combined... they drove it?

I did say “eight western states” of which Washington State is one of them. In term of contribution to the US GDP increase, since Washington State only accounts for 2.8% of the US GDP, overall Texas and Florida which account for 8.7% and 5.1% of US GDP still contribute more to the overall US GDP increase in 2018. Still 5.7% is incredible and placed the state as the one with the highest percentage increase in 2018.

I just want to point out that 10 states (8 in the west) did the heavy carrying of US GDP in 2018.

- - - Updated - - -

That is kinda a bear market, as in nothing decreases. A bust should have happened long ago.

Its not that easy to bust the US stock market. It has numerous sectors which are independent of each other. In 2018 the tech and health sectors were doing the heavy lifting through September. When the tech sector falter in the last quarter of 2018, the other sectors recovered. Not to mention the companies at the top of the stock market are some of the most profitable in the world. Apple had a 20% profit margin in 2018, Google, Microsot and Oracle 30%, Facebook 40%, etc. Between the stock buyback and the profits, they are sitting on tons of liquid asset in the form of certificates. Currently Google has around 1.2 trillion. That's why they did not even blink pledging 1 billion dollars for affordable housing in the Bay Area.

[Zan15]

Look we hit another record!!

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us...sis-2019-06-19

U.S. consumer debt hit $14 trillion in the first quarter of 2019
U.S. consumer debt is now above levels hit during the 2008 financial crisis

Consumer debt is growing to worrisome levels.

Ben Mohr, senior research analyst of fixed income at investment consultant Marquette Associates, calculated that total U.S. consumer debt hit $14 trillion in the first quarter of 2019, surpassing the roughly $13 trillion of leverage accumulated in credit cards, auto loans and mortgages and other debt back in 2008, when those souring loans and securities pegged to them helped to send global markets into a tailspin

[Rasulis]

Look we hit another record!!

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us...sis-2019-06-19

U.S. consumer debt hit $14 trillion in the first quarter of 2019
U.S. consumer debt is now above levels hit during the 2008 financial crisis

Consumer debt is growing to worrisome levels.

Ben Mohr, senior research analyst of fixed income at investment consultant Marquette Associates, calculated that total U.S. consumer debt hit $14 trillion in the first quarter of 2019, surpassing the roughly $13 trillion of leverage accumulated in credit cards, auto loans and mortgages and other debt back in 2008, when those souring loans and securities pegged to them helped to send global markets into a tailspin

It becomes even more interesting when you delve deeper into the numbers behind the graph.

Outstanding mortgage is still below 2008, outstanding Home Equity revolving credit less than half of 2008, outstanding credit card debt is stable. The biggest drivers of the increasing consumer debt are student loan (more then tripled) and auto loan (more than doubled).

Evil! Pffft! Pffft!

[Vash The Stampede]

Look we hit another record!!

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us...sis-2019-06-19

U.S. consumer debt hit $14 trillion in the first quarter of 2019
U.S. consumer debt is now above levels hit during the 2008 financial crisis

Consumer debt is growing to worrisome levels.

Ben Mohr, senior research analyst of fixed income at investment consultant Marquette Associates, calculated that total U.S. consumer debt hit $14 trillion in the first quarter of 2019, surpassing the roughly $13 trillion of leverage accumulated in credit cards, auto loans and mortgages and other debt back in 2008, when those souring loans and securities pegged to them helped to send global markets into a tailspin

Amazing economic expansion! Another 10 more years of debt! Thanks Obama, thanks Trump.

[Zan15]

It becomes even more interesting when you delve deeper into the numbers behind the graph.

Outstanding mortgage is still below 2008, outstanding Home Equity revolving credit less than half of 2008, outstanding credit card debt is stable. The biggest drivers of the increasing consumer debt are student loan (more then tripled) and auto loan (more than doubled).

Evil! Pffft! Pffft!

So we moved the debt to cars from homes....and when it comes crashing down on the auto makers and banks just like mortgages did...where will we be then??

Also the transition of even more debt to student loans means even more debt on the segment of the population that has the hardest time covering that debt.
At least with mortgages they were backed by physical property.

[Low Hanging Fruit]

At least Trump didn't stop the expansion; you have to give him that much.

Usually the economy is a big issue for voters. However, after 10 years of growth, the issue might've fell off of voter's radar.

How much effect will a healthy economy have in the 2020 elections?

10 - 3 = 7

Thanks Obama.

[Lynarii]

So we moved the debt to cars from homes....and when it comes crashing down on the auto makers and banks just like mortgages did...where will we be then??

Also the transition of even more debt to student loans means even more debt on the segment of the population that has the hardest time covering that debt.
At least with mortgages they were backed by physical property.

I don't really know if this is better or worse than 2008. On the one hand, having unsustainable debt tied to housing is REALLY REALLY bad because when it falls you get homeless people and that's a very bad scenario. On the other, huge student debt crushes the ability of a whole generation to spend money needed to keep the economy moving in the years to come, and having that much tied to auto loans is a sign that the already struggling auto-industry is being propped up to an unsustainable degree. This is probably less immediately problematic than the mortgage crisis was, but could be setting up even more issues in the near future.

[Zython]

What a coincidence. That's also the exact number of people that benefited from it!

[Rasulis]

So we moved the debt to cars from homes....and when it comes crashing down on the auto makers and banks just like mortgages did...where will we be then??

Also the transition of even more debt to student loans means even more debt on the segment of the population that has the hardest time covering that debt.
At least with mortgages they were backed by physical property.

I did not say it was better. I just wanted to point out that the biggest increase, per the OP article, is from student debt and car loan. Outstanding mortgage is still slightly below peak 2008, home equity loan is less than half, and credit card debt is the same.

[Zan15]

things are looking great...on top of the manufacturing record decline reported last week, the last jobs report, 18 months of hitting the same record over and over now we got more good news


https://www.apnews.com/debc52b5c76d49a783ad253049574e37

Sales of new U.S. homes slumped 7.8% in May, as sales plunged in the pricier Northeastern and Western markets.
The Commerce Department said Tuesday that new homes sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 626,000 in May, down from 679,000 in April. During the first five months of the year, purchases of new homes have fallen 3.7% compared to the same period in 2018.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consu...140725759.html

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index tumbled to 121.5 in June, dropping from a downwardly revised reading of 131.3 in May and snapping three consecutive months of improvements.

[Rasulis]

things are looking great...on top of the manufacturing record decline reported last week, the last jobs report, 18 months of hitting the same record over and over now we got more good news


https://www.apnews.com/debc52b5c76d49a783ad253049574e37

Sales of new U.S. homes slumped 7.8% in May, as sales plunged in the pricier Northeastern and Western markets.
The Commerce Department said Tuesday that new homes sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 626,000 in May, down from 679,000 in April. During the first five months of the year, purchases of new homes have fallen 3.7% compared to the same period in 2018.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consu...140725759.html

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index tumbled to 121.5 in June, dropping from a downwardly revised reading of 131.3 in May and snapping three consecutive months of improvements.

US stock market for the last decade has been driven by a single sector. There is a reason why NASDAQ is doing better than DOW. One is tech heavy and the other not so much (tech is only #2).

We are almost at the end of the second quarter of 2019, and the S&P 500 has a gain of nearly 3% this quarter and 16% for the first quarter. The problem is the gains are not evenly distributed.

For this quarter, five of the largest stocks contributed 30% of that S&P 500 gain:

Microsoft 14.8%
Facebook 5.5%
Amazon 4.8%
Disney 4.8%
Apple 4.0%

Five companies, out of 500, contribute more than 30% of the gains.

[Draco-Onis]

A lot.

It ranks right there with health care, immigration, as the top 3 concerns of the voters.

Same thing in 2016 worked out great for President Hillary Clinton...

[Zan15]

US stock market for the last decade has been driven by a single sector. There is a reason why NASDAQ is doing better than DOW. One is tech heavy and the other not so much (tech is only #2).

We are almost at the end of the second quarter of 2019, and the S&P 500 has a gain of nearly 3% this quarter and 16% for the first quarter. The problem is the gains are not evenly distributed.

For this quarter, five of the largest stocks contributed 30% of that S&P 500 gain:

Microsoft 14.8%
Facebook 5.5%
Amazon 4.8%
Disney 4.8%
Apple 4.0%

Five companies, out of 500, contribute more than 30% of the gains.

The bigger problem is the gains for the last 18 months are less than 1% in all 3 major indexes. We've re hit the same highs now 4 times and there appears to be a celing this economy and market can't break.

So while if you were lucky to time the market with all your assets you made out. The other 95% of people who's money been invested the whole time saw zero growth after inflation.

[Rasulis]

The bigger problem is the gains for the last 18 months are less than 1% in all 3 major indexes. We've re hit the same highs now 4 times and there appears to be a celing this economy and market can't break.

So while if you were lucky to time the market with all your assets you made out. The other 95% of people who's money been invested the whole time saw zero growth after inflation.

The market is being held back because only a few big companies are doing really good. The trade war impacted the small to medium companies the most, and that's why even as the S&P is going up, the S&P midcaps are flat and the S&P Small Cap Index is down 1.8%. Companies like Google and FB barely have any exposure in China. Microsoft and Apple are diverse enough that a hit on one sector of their business does not significantly affect their overall profit margin. As for Disney, many of their movies were done in collaboration with Beijing based Wanda Group which also acts a distributor in China so they are not affected either.