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  1. #21
    The Unstoppable Force PC2's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BoltBlaster View Post
    So? It still doesn't validate numbers made up by Skroe. Questioning those numbers? Sure, they might be a bit off. Posting alternative numbers? You need to have some evidence.

    So really he just started shitposting in this thread, like he usually does. Post claim, back it up by opinion pieces. Typical conspiracy theory.
    Evidence is good, but the reality is that not everything that is true has empirical evidence to back it up. Everybody knows that China manipulates all their data from GDP to crime rates. Chinese culture is obsessed with what they call "face", where the image they project is more important to them than accuracy.

  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by BoltBlaster View Post
    See his first post in this thread.
    I did, you need to re-read it.

  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by BoltBlaster View Post
    I don't get it. He made up numbers, I called bullshit, he backed it up with few opinion pieces and only 1 factual article that is several years old. Putting word "probably" before numbers doesn't make that post less bullshit.

    What is there to argue about? Numbers he posted are taken out of his arse. That's a fact.

    Idea that Chinese economy is shrinking is laughable at best, considering that vast majority of world's production is moving there. It takes special kind of hardcore brainwashed American (which Skroe is) to believe that Chinese economy isn't growing.
    There's a difference between saying their numbers are made up, and that their economy is not growing.

    Atleast provide some kind of proof that their numbers are correct, even the article in the OP which you point to for supporting your point, mentions that the several experts do not trust the numbers provided by China.

    Also you saying the articles are wrong does not make it so, where are they wrong? I do not have access to Financial times which is one of the references. The SCMP writer Sidney Leng is not an opinion piece, it referes to several experts aswell.

    so please point out where these different proffessors are wrong? Just going "lol dismiss 1 and 2" does not cut it.

  4. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by BoltBlaster View Post
    What proof do you have that official numbers aren't correct?


    But it is opinion piece. Those "experts" are also stating their opinions without any facts to back it up.

    The only way to disprove official figures is to make a real study that do calculations and provide actual figures. "I think numbers are off" is a subjective opinion, not fact and any article based on "I think" is speculation at best, intentional disinformation at worst.
    So you trust the numbers the Chinese Goverment is making public?

    "Opinions" of experts are often and hopefully based on indications that reality is not reflected in the numbers presented. If the chinese goverment told you that they had reached the moon in their new stealth fighter jet, you'd question them aswell (atleast I hope you would)
    Last edited by Crispin; 2019-07-16 at 09:08 AM.

  5. #25
    Merely a Setback Kaleredar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rda View Post
    Yes, absolutely.

    The war is not over yet, mind you, and who knows how it will go in the end. But the US have good reasons to fight it and they have a stronger hand than China. (The biggest problem is that the US are fighting alone, it would have been much better if they fought together with EU and Japan.)
    If only we didn't have a total stooge heading the whole endeavor, and who instead of believing (or wanting his followers to believe) that the rest of the world exists only to pilfer America's pocket, struck up a coalition with other countries to levy tariffs based at reining in China as a collective whole, instead of just working to alienate them all.


    Wouldn't that be fucking nice.

    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    The question is, why do you care if China is hurt more? Global utility is not a zero-sum game.
    If Trump cared about it any more than in a hollow effort to solicit votes, the world could use it as a strong arm to reign China in on its various human rights abuses and ever-increasingly dictatorship-like crusade of censorship and control.
    Last edited by Kaleredar; 2019-07-16 at 09:22 AM.
    “Do not lose time on daily trivialities. Do not dwell on petty detail. For all of these things melt away and drift apart within the obscure traffic of time. Live well and live broadly. You are alive and living now. Now is the envy of all of the dead.” ~ Emily3, World of Tomorrow
    Quote Originally Posted by Wells View Post
    Kaleredar is right...
    Words to live by.

  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Crispin View Post
    So you're using a strawman argument because you realised that what you were saying was nonsense?
    No, I did not mention straw men, I mentioned that growth is good. The degree of growth being good is subjective and relative. But growth is good.

  7. #27
    They still are growing and that matters. But if the trend continues, well... I would like to note that the system they have built might fail if the average citizen, who has been placated by the economic growth to ignore all the spying and controlling done by the state, wont be able to afford what he could before.

  8. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by Ghostpanther View Post
    Of course. They have more to lose than the US does.
    How does a smaller economy have more to lose?

    They also live by means much lower than the US so how do they have more to lose?

    the US relies on CHINA for debt purchase, without them rates would explode costing us trillions.

    US has no means to replace Chinese production on a real scale. Our economy is dependent on their goods. They can survive with their manufacturing alone even without us buying.


    US has way more to lose this this battle.

  9. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by Zan15 View Post
    How does a smaller economy have more to lose?

    They also live by means much lower than the US so how do they have more to lose?

    the US relies on CHINA for debt purchase, without them rates would explode costing us trillions.

    US has no means to replace Chinese production on a real scale. Our economy is dependent on their goods. They can survive with their manufacturing alone even without us buying.


    US has way more to lose this this battle.
    Uh? Every time the US imposes sanctions on China, production diverts to other countries in Asia especially Vietnam. They have a lot more to lose than the US does, the world is full of countries that are willing to sell but short of countries that are willing to buy.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Mexico too. Almost forgot that.

  10. #30
    Merely a Setback Kaleredar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zan15 View Post
    How does a smaller economy have more to lose?

    They also live by means much lower than the US so how do they have more to lose?

    the US relies on CHINA for debt purchase, without them rates would explode costing us trillions.

    US has no means to replace Chinese production on a real scale. Our economy is dependent on their goods. They can survive with their manufacturing alone even without us buying.


    US has way more to lose this this battle.
    The US has numerous other countries it could go to for cheap labor.

    If China doesn't have the EU or US to sell products to... who is hiring them for manufacturing?

    For the most part people aren't buying "Chinese goods" in that they're made from materials in China or designed by Chinese corporations. By and large, they're using China as the assembly line; the raw materials are shipped in from overseas to China where they're assembled based on designs some foreign corporation has developed.

    What "essential part" of that process relies solely on China? In that equation you can swap out China for Mexico, Sri Lanka, India, Vietnam, and so forth.

    As for "national debt," the vast majority of American debt is owned by Americans, not by foreign countries. China is about tied with Japan for "foreign debt ownership." And America really has no qualms with doing business with Japan.
    “Do not lose time on daily trivialities. Do not dwell on petty detail. For all of these things melt away and drift apart within the obscure traffic of time. Live well and live broadly. You are alive and living now. Now is the envy of all of the dead.” ~ Emily3, World of Tomorrow
    Quote Originally Posted by Wells View Post
    Kaleredar is right...
    Words to live by.

  11. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by Jonnusthegreat View Post
    No, I did not mention straw men, I mentioned that growth is good. The degree of growth being good is subjective and relative. But growth is good.
    My argument was never that growth is bad, ergo it's a strawman.

  12. #32
    Legendary! Collegeguy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zan15 View Post
    How does a smaller economy have more to lose?

    They also live by means much lower than the US so how do they have more to lose?

    the US relies on CHINA for debt purchase, without them rates would explode costing us trillions.

    US has no means to replace Chinese production on a real scale. Our economy is dependent on their goods. They can survive with their manufacturing alone even without us buying.


    US has way more to lose this this battle.
    US can find new trading partners for manufacture easily and it only a slow downturn.

    China could risk an entire revolution if people can't find their $1 jobs to pay for food.

  13. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by Crispin View Post
    My argument was never that growth is bad, ergo it's a strawman.
    You specifically said that 0.1% growth is bad. That is you saying growth is bad.

  14. #34
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    Hm... on the one hand Trump is literally the mythical satan/hitler hybrid if you ask the left. On the other he's the only one actually taking action(whether through some 4d-chess level shit or inadvertently, probably somewhere in the middle) instead of whining that they're being assholes, hurting China's ability to use actual concentration/extermination camps against muslims(he's helping not just brown people, but muslims!), forcible organ harvesting from dissidents(Holy shit, this rabbit hole just gets darker than the poor fucker's vision after they extracted his eyes without anesthetic), and clipping their growing hegemony(which is a threat to pretty much all of the western world).

    Going to be fun to watch people turn in knots.
    O Flora, of the moon, of the dream. O Little ones, O fleeting will of the ancients. Let the hunter be safe. Let them find comfort. And let this dream, their captor, Foretell a pleasant awakening

  15. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by Jonnusthegreat View Post
    You specifically said that 0.1% growth is bad. That is you saying growth is bad.
    It's basically impossible to take you seriously when you make statements like this. If pop growth is more than 0.1%, and you have 0.1% GDP growth, then 0.1% GDP growth is bad. His argument isn't that growth is bad, it's that GDP growth being lower than pop growth means your citizens are getting poorer. That's bad. When you continually deign not to apply any critical thinking, people will begin to believe you're incapable of thinking.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rudol Von Stroheim View Post
    I do not need to play the role of "holier than thou". I'm above that..

  16. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by Ripster42 View Post
    It's basically impossible to take you seriously when you make statements like this. If pop growth is more than 0.1%, and you have 0.1% GDP growth, then 0.1% GDP growth is bad. His argument isn't that growth is bad, it's that GDP growth being lower than pop growth means your citizens are getting poorer. That's bad. When you continually deign not to apply any critical thinking, people will begin to believe you're incapable of thinking.
    That might explain why I said "grow less people" in my first post. It's all relative.

  17. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by NED funded View Post
    Uh? Every time the US imposes sanctions on China, production diverts to other countries in Asia especially Vietnam. They have a lot more to lose than the US does, the world is full of countries that are willing to sell but short of countries that are willing to buy.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Mexico too. Almost forgot that.
    every time?

    and yet apple just moved a huge production line for their hardware to china.....so ya not every time and probably not even close to double digit percentages.

    on top of that it does nothing to help the US. they have to move production, pass on the cost of the move and the increase cost of production thus harming the US consumer and economy.
    Its also only a matter of time before they tariff those other countries and production moves back to china.


    and lastly, a lot of Chinese companies have production lines in other countries just like Foxconn. So production might still move but china sees all the profits.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaleredar View Post

    As for "national debt," the vast majority of American debt is owned by Americans, not by foreign countries. China is about tied with Japan for "foreign debt ownership." And America really has no qualms with doing business with Japan.

    You do not need a large disruption in the debt market to make rates skyrocket, this would include rates to "Americans" and even what the SS administration buys each day.

    There is not enough demand to make up for a full china stop on the US treasury market without a substantial cost to the US
    China can get better rates with a little more risk in other countries or wait till rates bump and buy back into the treasuries.


    Quote Originally Posted by Kaleredar View Post
    The US has numerous other countries it could go to for cheap labor.

    If China doesn't have the EU or US to sell products to... who is hiring them for manufacturing?

    For the most part people aren't buying "Chinese goods" in that they're made from materials in China or designed by Chinese corporations. By and large, they're using China as the assembly line; the raw materials are shipped in from overseas to China where they're assembled based on designs some foreign corporation has developed.

    What "essential part" of that process relies solely on China? In that equation you can swap out China for Mexico, Sri Lanka, India, Vietnam, and so forth.

    .
    The essential part is cost.
    If there was cost savings in any of these other countries these companies would have moved long before the Tariffs.

    So far the EU has stayed out and of the war so they are a non factor.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Collegeguy View Post
    US can find new trading partners for manufacture easily and it only a slow downturn.

    China could risk an entire revolution if people can't find their $1 jobs to pay for food.

    lol moving a whole manufacturing line is easy?
    nothing like moving a trillion dollars worth of manufacturing easily…. it only took 20+ years to build it up.

    On top of the fact that inflation would explode from the cost increases.

  18. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by Jonnusthegreat View Post
    You specifically said that 0.1% growth is bad. That is you saying growth is bad.
    Where did I write that growth is bad? Again you’re strawmanning because you realised you were spewing nonsense.

    If I were as stupid as you, I’d reply along the lines of “so you’re saying 0.1 growth is good for a country?” You’ll reply “its better than 0” and I’ll reply “gj sherlock” again.

    Now you got one more chance to not strawman it, since I’m not going to bother defending a position I never took, surprise.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Jonnusthegreat View Post
    That might explain why I said "grow less people" in my first post. It's all relative.
    Oh so the basis for your “0.1 is good” is not related to reality /facepalm

  19. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by Crispin View Post
    Where did I write that growth is bad? Again you’re strawmanning because you realised you were spewing nonsense.

    If I were as stupid as you, I’d reply along the lines of “so you’re saying 0.1 growth is good for a country?” You’ll reply “its better than 0” and I’ll reply “gj sherlock” again.

    Now you got one more chance to not strawman it, since I’m not going to bother defending a position I never took, surprise.
    Lol good job editing your posts. Ha. We're done here.

  20. #40
    Merely a Setback Kaleredar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zan15 View Post
    every time?

    and yet apple just moved a huge production line for their hardware to china.....so ya not every time and probably not even close to double digit percentages.

    on top of that it does nothing to help the US. they have to move production, pass on the cost of the move and the increase cost of production thus harming the US consumer and economy.
    The US economy can eat such a change, though I doubt it would be nearly as "crippling" as you portend. Seeing as... it's never been an issue in the past.

    But what would at most be annoying for the US would be crippling for China.

    You're praising the "strength" of an economy that exists solely on the whims and caprices of other countries to keep doing business with it. They have no footing to stand on but "well it'd be annoying for them to change so... they just wont."

    Its also only a matter of time before they tariff those other countries and production moves back to china.
    Which is why China needs to be collectively targeted.

    and lastly, a lot of Chinese companies have production lines in other countries just like Foxconn. So production might still move but china sees all the profits.
    ...for that one, specific company, perhaps.

    You do not need a large disruption in the debt market to make rates skyrocket, this would include rates to "Americans" and even what the SS administration buys each day.

    There is not enough demand to make up for a full china stop on the US treasury market without a substantial cost to the US
    China can get better rates with a little more risk in other countries or wait till rates bump and buy back into the treasuries.
    Here are some various congressional findings on the matter, and their opinions of it:

    "attempting to use U.S. Treasury securities as a coercive tool would have limited effect and likely would do more harm to China than to the United States." ~ national security risk assessment of U.S. federal debt held by China conducted by the Defense Department.

    "because foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities represent only a small part of total U.S. credit market debt outstanding, U.S. credit markets should be able to absorb without great difficulty any shift of foreign allocations" ~ Former Federal Reserve System Chairman Ben Bernanke

    It's almost like the United States government has looked into this before.

    The essential part is cost.
    If there was cost savings in any of these other countries these companies would have moved long before the Tariffs.
    But that's the thing, companies are moving. They have been. This might push them to move even more.

    So far the EU has stayed out and of the war so they are a non factor.
    That's why any smart administration would have worked with the EU on this trade dispute.

    But sadly Trump is a moron. Maybe the next president will have a more holistic approach to the situation.
    Last edited by Kaleredar; 2019-07-18 at 12:21 AM.
    “Do not lose time on daily trivialities. Do not dwell on petty detail. For all of these things melt away and drift apart within the obscure traffic of time. Live well and live broadly. You are alive and living now. Now is the envy of all of the dead.” ~ Emily3, World of Tomorrow
    Quote Originally Posted by Wells View Post
    Kaleredar is right...
    Words to live by.

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