Ironhoof Destroyer (Blackhand M) - Potentially another mount broken by personal loot

[Azerate]

UPDATE: According to a recent Wowhead comment, a GM has confirmed in a ticket conversation that some raid mounts have a lower drop chance, and Ironhoof Destroyer is among them. If this is to be believed, then it explains the situation described in this thread and pretty much solves it.

Many of us farming this mount now in BfA have noticed unusually high dry streaks and attempt counts, way too high for the expected 1% raid mount drop rate. BFA brought loot changes to WoD content, which many are suspecting caused problems with mount drops in old raids - which was confirmed by one of the recent blue posts about fixing the Azure and Blue Drake drops.

For those unacquainted with mount farming, all raid mounts are considered fairly easy drops. Their estimated chance is 1% and for most people really putting their time into it and using multiple alts, getting those is just a formality. 300-400 attempts is already considered incredibly unlucky for an average 1% raid mount. In this case, people are going 600+ or even 800+ attempts dry without getting the blackhand mount. Myself I am currently at 630 attempts without the drop. These kinds of numbers almost conclusively mean the drop rate is somehow botched / bugged.

Also, just to address the common counter-argument used against posts like these that often gets posted by people not deep in mount farming as an activity.

RNG is RNG

Yes, I know. However, there is a realistic range of attempts one can expect from a certain drop chance. This is evidenced by years of mount farming by hundreds of people.

There is no bad luck protection! Whenever you kill a boss the chance is always 1%! Doesn't matter you killed it 1000 times! Gambler's Fallacy!

Yes...the chance is always 1% for every individual kill, however once you stack attempts, the probability of receiving a positive result rises. Or in other words, it's more and more probable you will succeed if you keep trying, simply due to the number of attempts. Just to use a simple example: if you roll a dice 10 times, the probability you will get 6 at least once is higher than if you just roll the dice 1 time. It’s bordering on impossibility to do 800 tries on something that has a 1% chance to happen and not have it happened. It shows that something is clearly wrong with the mount.

More data can be seen here, where people post their attempt counts.
https://www.wowhead.com/item=116660/...royer#comments

About 2 months ago I made a reddit thread, where I got some good feedback, and some bad feedback, but overall nothing really came out of it.
https://www.reddit.com/r/wow/comment...nd_mount_drop/

Personally, I am almost sure this mount drop is currently bugged. I’ve farmed almost every single 1% raid mount in the game from wod downwards, and I know what to expect. In this situation, many people are reporting just exuberant amounts of tries that convince me it’s bugged. We need a fix, just like they fixed the Azure/Blue Drakes.

I've also posted this on the EU official forum. Please give it some attention if you care for the collector/mount farming community, so that this mount drop bug is fixed too.
https://eu.forums.blizzard.com/en/wo...nal-loot/65697

PS.

One more thing:

Someone actually getting the mount does not invalidate the claim that there is some kind of a bug. As evidenced by this thread (https://www.mmo-champion.com/threads...nt-drop-chance) the person actually got the Azure Drake during the bugged period. It's possible that the bug only prevents the mount to drop when some specific circumstances occur, so it's still possible to get it in some cases, but not for all mythic boss kills, which should be the case.

[Nerph-]

I hope for you they do take a moment to look into it and see if it's bugged... nothing like spending the time farming something that's impossible to get (if it is actually bugged).

[Lei]

Thanks for doing this. Even if the drop rate is working fine, better to recheck it than just have another heavenly onyx or azure drake situation.

[Andonais]

I got it a couple months ago with less that 100 runs

[13badluck3]

Not sure if it is broken or not, but according to my Rarity addon i am now over 300 runs for Mimiron's head. Not sure if bad luck or an issue with the consolidation of difficulties, considering less than a month ago i got the Kor'kron Juggernaut on my 24th kill of Garrosh.

[Foolicious]

Got the mount some time ago while i was farming the skip to Blackhand, so 5th try i think. But i can't recall if this was already in bfa or still in Legion.
Is there any chance rarity can tell you when you got a mount or any other idea how to track that?

[Azerate]

One more thing:

Someone actually getting the mount does not invalidate the claim that there is some kind of a bug. As evidenced by this thread (https://www.mmo-champion.com/threads...nt-drop-chance) the person actually got the Azure Drake during the bugged period. It's possible that the bug only prevents the mount to drop when some specific circumstances occur, so it's still possible to get it in some cases, but not for all mythic boss kills, which should be the case.

Got the mount some time ago while i was farming the skip to Blackhand, so 5th try i think. But i can't recall if this was already in bfa or still in Legion.
Is there any chance rarity can tell you when you got a mount or any other idea how to track that?

Rarity takes a screenshot whenever you get one of the tracked items. You can look at the date of creation of that screenshot to determine this.

Not sure if it is broken or not, but according to my Rarity addon i am now over 300 runs for Mimiron's head. Not sure if bad luck or an issue with the consolidation of difficulties, considering less than a month ago i got the Kor'kron Juggernaut on my 24th kill of Garrosh.

This is already a pretty bad luck indeed on that Mimiron's Head, but it's not yet in the crazy territory. hvae you checked if there have been similar dry streaks recently occuring en masse?

[Mardux]

One more thing:

Someone actually getting the mount does not invalidate the claim that there is some kind of a bug. As evidenced by this thread (https://www.mmo-champion.com/threads...nt-drop-chance) the person actually got the Azure Drake during the bugged period. It's possible that the bug only prevents the mount to drop when some specific circumstances occur, so it's still possible to get it in some cases, but not for all mythic boss kills, which should be the case.



Rarity takes a screenshot whenever you get one of the tracked items. You can look at the date of creation of that screenshot to determine this.

And someone not getting doesnt necessarily mean that it is bugged, like OP is telling people. Or rather, that they are 95% sure its bugged with little to back the claim other than their misunderstanding of how probabilities work and the differences between types of probabilities.

[Azerate]

And someone not getting doesnt necessarily mean that it is bugged, like OP is telling people. Or rather, that they are 95% sure its bugged with little to back the claim other than their misunderstanding of how probabilities work and the differences between types of probabilities.

Except it was confirmed by a blue that this mount was in fact bugged and they have now fixed it. It's the 2nd post on the front page of mmo-c if you missed it.

Unless you actually meant my humble self - in which case I do have info to back up my claim, check out the wowhead link I posted for example. But if you prefer to keep denying it, even in the face of other such situations being confirmed recently, be my guest.

[Nefarious Tea]

Uhh you do know that to have a 95% of chance of having looted a 1% drop rate, you need to have approximately 325 kills or something, right?

There definitely has not been 300 weeks since mythic Blackhand was killable. That's almost six years.

[Foolicious]

Rarity takes a screenshot whenever you get one of the tracked items. You can look at the date of creation of that screenshot to determine this.

I didn't even knew rarity does that. But it was still in Legion. My bad. I guess im the jerk that tells everyone it didn't took long to farm something in these threads then.

Uhh you do know that to have a 95% of chance of having looted a 1% drop rate, you need to have approximately 325 kills or something, right?

There definitely has not been 300 weeks since mythic Blackhand was killable. That's almost six years.

Most of the players that farm mounts do it with several twinks a week. Doing 15 and more id's on the same boss per week isn't unusual

[Azerate]

Uhh you do know that to have a 95% of chance of having looted a 1% drop rate, you need to have approximately 325 kills or something, right?

There definitely has not been 300 weeks since mythic Blackhand was killable. That's almost six years.

Ok, number one: the "I'm 95% sure" thing is a figure of speech meant to convery I am almost certain it's bugged. It's not calculated on anything.

Number two, you are obviously one of the people who don't do mount farming too much, which is perfectly fine, but in that case it might be better to ask before posting such comments.

Yes, there has not been 300 weeks since mythic Blackhand was killable, but you can have multiple character in this game. Mount farmers have many of them to use on weekly basis to try and beat the odds. Personally I am killing Blackhand on 15 characters a week. I have 30 total alts on which I farm the 1/200o world bosses (and only missing Sha and Nalak atm).

[Shaqthefat]

Many of us farming this mount now in BfA have noticed unusually high dry streaks and attempt counts, way too high for the expected 1% raid mount drop rate. BFA brought loot changes to WoD content, which many are suspecting caused problems with mount drops in old raids - which was confirmed by one of the recent blue posts about fixing the Azure and Blue Drake drops.

For those unacquainted with mount farming, all raid mounts are considered fairly easy drops. Their estimated chance is 1% and for most people really putting their time into it and using multiple alts, getting those is just a formality. 300-400 attempts is already considered incredibly unlucky for an average 1% raid mount. In this case, people are going 600+ or even 800+ attempts dry without getting the blackhand mount. Myself I am currently at 630 attempts without the drop. These kinds of numbers almost conclusively mean the drop rate is somehow botched / bugged.

Also, just to address the common counter-argument used against posts like these that often gets posted by people not deep in mount farming as an activity.



Yes, I know. However, there is a realistic range of attempts one can expect from a certain drop chance. This is evidenced by years of mount farming by hundreds of people.



Yes...the chance is always 1% for every individual kill, however once you stack attempts, the probability of receiving a positive result rises. Or in other words, it's more and more probable you will succeed if you keep trying, simply due to the number of attempts. Just to use a simple example: if you roll a dice 10 times, the probability you will get 6 at least once is higher than if you just roll the dice 1 time. It’s bordering on impossibility to do 800 tries on something that has a 1% chance to happen and not have it happened. It shows that something is clearly wrong with the mount.

More data can be seen here, where people post their attempt counts.
https://www.wowhead.com/item=116660/...royer#comments

About 2 months ago I made a reddit thread, where I got some good feedback, and some bad feedback, but overall nothing really came out of it.
https://www.reddit.com/r/wow/comment...nd_mount_drop/

Personally, I am almost sure this mount drop is currently bugged. I’ve farmed almost every single 1% raid mount in the game from wod downwards, and I know what to expect. In this situation, many people are reporting just exuberant amounts of tries that convince me it’s bugged. We need a fix, just like they fixed the Azure/Blue Drakes.

I've also posted this on the EU official forum. Please give it some attention if you care for the collector/mount farming community, so that this mount drop bug is fixed too.
https://eu.forums.blizzard.com/en/wo...nal-loot/65697

PS.

One more thing:

Someone actually getting the mount does not invalidate the claim that there is some kind of a bug. As evidenced by this thread (https://www.mmo-champion.com/threads...nt-drop-chance) the person actually got the Azure Drake during the bugged period. It's possible that the bug only prevents the mount to drop when some specific circumstances occur, so it's still possible to get it in some cases, but not for all mythic boss kills, which should be the case.

Got mine a bit after 8.2 came out, they could've fixed it in an undocumented change

[Azerate]

Got mine a bit after 8.2 came out, they could've fixed it in an undocumented change

Congrats mate!

It's possible it has been recently fixed, but considering how public they made the Azure/Blue Drakes fix one would think this one would also be disclosed. It's possible you received the mount despite the bug still persisting in the game. It's not that no one has received the mount recently - there are documented cases of this happening, but there are also lots of people with 600+, 700+ and even 800+ dry streaks.

[Shaqthefat]

Congrats mate!

It's possible it has been recently fixed, but considering how public they made the Azure/Blue Drakes fix one would think this one would also be disclosed. It's possible you received the mount despite the bug still persisting in the game. It's not that no one has received the mount recently - there are documented cases of this happening, but there are also lots of people with 600+, 700+ and even 800+ dry streaks.

Yeah, I think its still bugged. I thought that they fixed it with the patch but coming out and fixing the Malygos mounts make me suspicious of the Ironhoof destroyer still being bugged.. The question also has to be if it is bugged why wasn't it fixed with the Malygos mount.

[makls]

Good to see this topic on ,its needed for a lot of other mounts like guldans catche drop (does it divide the 1% to all members during the raid etc) since there is silence over every post made to blizz devs.But more on your issue.
I am not saying there are not bugs going on but not much can be done about this since i also have dry farm on nalak 2545 kills and rukhmar 1730 kills but got galleon and oondasta under 2k kills for more then 6 years of pushing.I know ppl over 8k kills on both and cant imagine the dread.
The azure and blue drakes was lets be honest dropping way higher then 1% and no one was saying anything,i know ppl who got both at the drop,maybe there was a fix recently that balanced out the drop and by that it made it not drop that much so ppl freaked out but i think it was not for a long period.
I know you are in some state of anger and this is a way to vent for you and i have been in this place for a long time and i got no feedback ,all we have is to continue to farm.

[horbindr]

It’s bordering on impossibility to do 800 tries on something that has a 1% chance to happen and not have it happened. It shows that something is clearly wrong with the mount.

1-0.99^800=0.9997. sure that is unlucky but i'd add a few nines before starting to making claims like "impossibility".

1 in 10k happen all the time. i'm sure a lot of people have seen someone roll a 100 twice in a row for example.

that said, wouldn't surprise me at all if they screwed up dropchances in those raids. it reeks of an automated system.

[Azerate]

Yeah, I think its still bugged. I thought that they fixed it with the patch but coming out and fixing the Malygos mounts make me suspicious of the Ironhoof destroyer still being bugged.. The question also has to be if it is bugged why wasn't it fixed with the Malygos mount.

It's very hard to judge whether this kind of thing is really broken or not, and even when there is somewhat sufficient data, you still get droves of apologists jumping on threads such as these with their "hurr rng is rng and also gambler's fallacy" bs. So far that reason these reports may not be treated as seriously as other stuff.

If a benthic shoulder item doesn't drop in 200 rolls, everyone agrees it's bugged, because there's only like 4 of them, all with (we can guess) equal chance to pop up. If something with a drop rate of 1% is bugged, it's easy to just brush the reports off as people complaining about not getting the mount quickly.

It doesn't help that the "GMs" that answer tickets are usually pretty clueless about the inner mechanics of the game and just give you "piss off" responses to everything without even looking into it (because they can't look into it, having no access to the actual game code).

We are pretty much left with the glimmer of hope that Blizz finally takes a moment to look into this, while churning more and more content for BfA haters to finally be satisfied

Good to see this topic on ,its needed for a lot of other mounts like guldans catche drop (does it divide the 1% to all members during the raid etc) since there is silence over every post made to blizz devs.But more on your issue.
I am not saying there are not bugs going on but not much can be done about this since i also have dry farm on nalak 2545 kills and rukhmar 1730 kills but got galleon and oondasta under 2k kills for more then 6 years of pushing.I know ppl over 8k kills on both and cant imagine the dread.
The azure and blue drakes was lets be honest dropping way higher then 1% and no one was saying anything,i know ppl who got both at the drop,maybe there was a fix recently that balanced out the drop and by that it made it not drop that much so ppl freaked out but i think it was not for a long period.
I know you are in some state of anger and this is a way to vent for you and i have been in this place for a long time and i got no feedback ,all we have is to continue to farm.

Guldan's mount also seems to be bugged, yes. But I have personally not farmed it enough to comment on it, and it's still somewhat in the elite mount farming territory, because it requires a decently geared 120 to farm reliably, which way less people have than countless 110s and basic geared 120s to farm things such as BRF.

I disagree that I am in a state of anger though. Blackhand takes me about 1,5 hour every week to do on 15 toons. Or in other words it takes no time at all. I do, however, believe it's bugged, and as such, I'd like it to be fixed. I don't mind farming stuff with lower than 1% drop rate and have been doing so (successfuly) over the recent years.

1-0.99^800=0.9997. sure that is unlucky but i'd add a few nines before starting to making claims like "impossibility".

1 in 10k happen all the time. i'm sure a lot of people have seen someone roll a 100 twice in a row for example.

that said, wouldn't surprise me at all if they screwed up dropchances in those raids. it reeks of an automated system.

Ok mate, great to hear some theoretical statements, how many 1% raid mounts have you yourself successsfuly acquired? Or people you know? Do you know of anyone who had 1000 attempts on a raid mount before getting it? No, 1 in 10k does not happen for those mounts. 400+ is already a crazy high count of attempts and most people get them way lower than that. 700+ territory is way past the usual.

[Dorph]

I managed to get it during Legion, so wouldn't know about BFA. Sorry to change to another mount though, but I wanted to take the opportunity to ask if anyone has experienced this with Midnight in the Legion Karazhan? I am somewhere between 500-600 kills without seeing it, and it's getting frustrating to say the least xD

[Azerate]

I managed to get it during Legion, so wouldn't know about BFA. Sorry to change to another mount though, but I wanted to take the opportunity to ask if anyone has experienced this with Midnight in the Legion Karazhan? I am somewhere between 500-600 kills without seeing it, and it's getting frustrating to say the least xD

I had a quick look at wowhead comments and there doesn't seem to be a mass dry-streak happening. People reporting getting the mount in various amounts of kills, but you never know:
https://www.wowhead.com/item=142236/...reins#comments

Myself I got that one on my first try in BfA (solo) which was like the 20th try overall. Got pretty lucky there.