Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[Dontrike]

How has nobody explained tariffs to him yet?

Yes, they have, and that's the problem.

[Zaydin]

Yes, they have, and that's the problem.

Yep. He won't listen to people who tell him anything that challenges what he already believes to be true.

He did a similar thing a year or two ago when he was whining about the deal between Amazon and the US Post Office when his aides were telling him it was actually a good deal for the Post Office and he wouldn't believe them because it didn't feel true to him.

[Dontrike]

Yep. He won't listen to people who tell him anything that challenges what he already believes to be true.

He did a similar thing a year or two ago when he was whining about the deal between Amazon and the US Post Office when his aides were telling him it was actually a good deal for the Post Office and he wouldn't believe them because it didn't feel true to him.

Even people on Fox have said what tariffs are and what they do and he ignores that. There's just some information that you cannot convince him of because of his feelings.

[Breccia]

The numbers are in.

Despite what Trump tweets, multiple studies (including this one, this one and this one) have found that:

A) China is not paying for the tariffs. In fact, 100% of the tariffs are being paid for by US consumers -- which is not normally the case. Normally, the supplier cuts the price and eats a loss (but still does not technically pay the tariff). That hasn't happened here. China didn't cut prices at all.

B) The cost per household per year is about $832

C) And China's money has devalued, but not nearly enough to make a difference.

I'm actually a little pissed off that Princeton actually took the time to do this study at all, but the results are clear. Trump can tweet whatever he wants, it doesn't magically become true.

[Zaydin]

I'm actually a little pissed off that Princeton actually took the time to do this study at all, but the results are clear. Trump can tweet whatever he wants, it doesn't magically become true.

Unfortunately, it doesn't matter. The Trump cult believes everything he says no matter how often it gets debunked. They are unreachable and irredeemable.

[Xeones]

The numbers are in.

Despite what Trump tweets, multiple studies (including this one, this one and this one) have found that:

A) China is not paying for the tariffs. In fact, 100% of the tariffs are being paid for by US consumers -- which is not normally the case. Normally, the supplier cuts the price and eats a loss (but still does not technically pay the tariff). That hasn't happened here. China didn't cut prices at all.

B) The cost per household per year is about $832

C) And China's money has devalued, but not nearly enough to make a difference.

I'm actually a little pissed off that Princeton actually took the time to do this study at all, but the results are clear. Trump can tweet whatever he wants, it doesn't magically become true.

Fake news.

Fake doesn't mean false, it just means bad news. The only good news is their money devalued you can leave out the rest.

[Breccia]

In the ongoing effort to express their appreciation for the end of the Nuclear Deal, Iran up and seizes an oil tanker.

For added fun, Mitch McConnell was giving a speech in a church in Kentucky and people wearing Moscow Mitch T-shirts showed up to protest. That's right, he's having issues in his own state. In a church.

Miller was caught sending emails to customs, demanding they invent new rules to slow down green cards. As a reminder, Miller is in charge of the nothing department. He's an advisor. He has zero authority.

[D Luniz]

The numbers are in.

Despite what Trump tweets, multiple studies (including this one, this one and this one) have found that:

A) China is not paying for the tariffs. In fact, 100% of the tariffs are being paid for by US consumers -- which is not normally the case. Normally, the supplier cuts the price and eats a loss (but still does not technically pay the tariff). That hasn't happened here. China didn't cut prices at all.

B) The cost per household per year is about $832

C) And China's money has devalued, but not nearly enough to make a difference.

I'm actually a little pissed off that Princeton actually took the time to do this study at all, but the results are clear. Trump can tweet whatever he wants, it doesn't magically become true.

Sony is warning that the PS5 will be MUCH higher priced because of the tariffs, Microsoft and Nintendo said the same
so the "they'll move their production here" is gonna be proven as BS to a large group in the most salient way with estimates saying a 25% price jump ($400 system now $500, not counting extra controllers and such)

[shimerra]

Yeah we should probably give up on asking for a fair deal with China when our gaming consoles are at stake.

Neither you or trump were smart enough to understand what the deal was in the first place let alone get a better one.


And again we literally crafted a trade regime with all the major players in the region, excluding China, with America basically in charge. Trump cancelled that. All Trump is doing now is forcing Americans to pay more while flailing about like an idiot.


If this is your idea of trying yes please give up. The "bad" deal we had before is infinitely preferable to your current idiocy.

[D Luniz]

Neither you or trump were smart enough to understand what the deal was in the first place let alone get a better one.


And again we literally crafted a trade regime with all the major players in the region, excluding China, with America basically in charge. Trump cancelled that. All Trump is doing now is forcing Americans to pay more while flailing about like an idiot.


If this is your idea of trying yes please give up. The "bad" deal we had before is infinitely preferable to your current idiocy.

Trump is seeing that the now "Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership" is working, and is talking about he might ask to have the US let back in

they are saying it will cost us IF they even allow us back in cause, surprise!, they dont trust Trump

- - - Updated - - -

Yeah we should probably give up on asking for a fair deal with China when our gaming consoles are at stake.

unless your trying to claim what Trump is doing with tariffs either is, or will work, I dont see what your point is. Assuming there is one and your post isnt just some "nuh uh! Everything is fine" delusion

[pathora44]

unless your trying to claim what Trump is doing with tariffs either is, or will work, I dont see what your point is. Assuming there is one and your post isnt just some "nuh uh! Everything is fine" delusion

The only point Trumpsters ever have is "Trump good, everyone else bad" beyond that it is all circular ramblings that lead to that point.

- - - Updated - - -

"Sandy Hook marked the end of the US gun control debate. Once America decided killing children was bearable, it was over." --Dan Hodges

That right there is not only a top quote about America of the 2010's, not only will it be a top quote about America of the twenty first century, it is a quote that should go down in the history books about America as a whole.

[Bodakane]

Trump offers thoughts and prayers as 19 more people are shot to death in El Paso. Early reports say it's a white guy with an assault rifle so nothing will be done.

I know this isn't funny. I'll save the A-material for something we haven't seen this dozens of times in 2019 alone. "Thoughts and prayers" is as far as we're going until at the very least Mitch McConnell stops blocking everything in the Senate.

I wish antifa members had been there to stop yet another right wing terrorist.

[Endus]

Yeah we should probably give up on asking for a fair deal with China when our gaming consoles are at stake.

Applying heavy tariffs like this is explicitly an attempt to make trade with China an "unfair deal", for China. Because the status quo where trade was allowed to continue without restriction or price manipulation (which was "fair") was deemed unacceptable.

What's going on here is that anarcho-capitalists have realized that anarcho-capitalism doesn't work out well for them, so they're trying to stick their thumbs on the scales. While still thumping their chests about anarcho-capitalism.

[Breccia]

"they'll move their production here"

That's seemingly an easy call for the manufacturers.

Making them abroad, then having the consumers pay tax, is probably still a less expensive price tag overall than paying US workers to make them. But, the price tag from the manufacturer's point of view is definitely lower, because they don't pay tariffs, the consumer does.

Now, just to estimate here, 20% of so of a car's cost appears to be labor. Let's pretend a video game console has that as well. The highest minimum wage in China seems to be Beijing at 24Y/hr. That's $3.46 by today's rate and almost half the US minimum wage.

The PS4 retails for $400 suggesting that Sony paid about $200 to make it, labor was 20% or $40, and there, labor in the US would have been $80, adding +$40 to the price. The PS4, called a consumer electric or toy, I think is due for a 10% tariff Sept 1 but let's pretend it's 25% (either now, or eventually).

25% of $200 is $50, and therefore, higher than the $40 price increase for making it in the USA.

"That's great! Trump wins again! MAGA!"

Except!

"Oh right."

Except that

A) Sony has over triple the employees in Japan as they do in the USA, and roughly equal in China. That's where they're made, not here. There are currently no factories in the USA designed for PS4 and one would assume PS5 making. This 2014 article suggests a video game factory costs about $7.5 billion US. While Sony has sold 92 million PS4 units, that division would still suck, +$80 or more each and outstripping the cost of labor.

I could stop there. But I won't. Because I'm an evil bastard.

B) I compared the highest minimum wage in China vs. the lowest minimum wage in the USA. That's cherry picking, and if I wasn't doing it to prove a point, I'd be intentionally disingenuous. There are places in China where the minimum wage is half that. Also, BLS suggests that the US wage would be much higher, realistically double (or more?) the minimum wage.

That means, even ignoring benefits, that the labor difference isn't $40 for China vs. $80 for the US, but could be as bad as $20 in China vs. $240 in the US, a price jump of $220, which incidentally, you could use to buy a PS4 right now.

"But Breccia! You based the 25% tariffs off the $200 cost-to-make price! Surely it should be on the $400 end price!"

Well, no, Sony is likely selling the PS4 to Best Buy, GameStop, Target etc. for less than the $400 they started. But even if I pretend you're correct, 25% is $100 and still way less than the price gap.

Now, is there more to the story than napkin math? Probably. Making the units in the USA probably cuts the cost of shipping down a bit. But even with details like that added, I see no reason why Sony would choose to pay American workers more, when they could actually cut the final price tag on shelves by letting consumers just eat the tariffs, while Sony pays the much lower price. The gap is just too wide to cross without multiple cranes moving overhead to swing from.

For more information, this Reuters article titled "Get Ready For Higher Prices If New Tariffs Hit Goods From China, Retailers Warn" came out two days ago.

The White House pressed the tariff threat on Friday, even as Trump announced a new agreement aimed at boosting beef exports to Europe. A day earlier, Trump threatened to set a new 10% tariff on $300 billion worth of products imported from China.

Rising trade tensions prompted another sell-off on Wall Street on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down nearly 100 points, or 0.4%, recovering from steeper losses earlier in the day.

More than 40% of all the clothes sold in the United States are made in China, as are nearly 70% of the shoes and 88% of the toys.

These items have been largely untouched by the tariffs the president has already imposed on China over the past year. But they'll almost certainly be on the target list if additional tariffs are imposed Sept. 1.

"What really does set this list of products apart from all of the earlier tariffs are it's basically consumer goods," said Chad Bown, a trade analyst at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. "It's clothing, and toys, iPhones. All of that stuff has been shielded so far, and that's what's likely on the list this time around."

Retailers say they support the president's goal of altering China's unfair trading practices, but they argue tariffs are the wrong way to go about it.

"All of this is just going to add up," said David French, senior vice president at the National Retail Federation. "At some point, whether it's this holiday season or some time next year, the full pain is going to come home to roost."

- - - Updated - - -

Oh, goodie. Mexico is going to take legal action against the USA because of the mass shooting which killed Mexican citizens of Mexico.

Awesome.

Can't fucking wait to see how this plays out.

- - - Updated - - -

77 year old Mitch McConnell trips and breaks his shell.

I'm not even going to guess how the leader of the Senate working from home will affect things. Yes, I know the Senate is in a five-week recess. I'm dubious of anyone older than the original King Kong movie recovering from a broken collarbone in a month.

[DarkTZeratul]

Oh, goodie. Mexico is going to take legal action against the USA because of the mass shooting which killed Mexican citizens of Mexico.

Awesome.

Can't fucking wait to see how this plays out.

Especially given that they were specifically TARGETED by the attack and not just in the wrong place at the wrong time.

[Breccia]

Especially given that they were specifically TARGETED by the attack and not just in the wrong place at the wrong time.

See, I don't think that's 100% true. I don't think the white supremacist mass murdering terrorist Trump supporter was actually looking to kill Mexican citizens of Mexico. He seemed concerned, gee I wonder why, about being replaced. Mexicans crossing the border to shop at Wal-Mart were no threat to him. They were, in fact, supporting jobs.

Oh, and this motherfucker lived 650 miles away. He chose to drive 13 hours or whatever to do this. He wasn't even worried about his own community. He picked someone else's.

[Belize]

77 year old Mitch McConnell trips and breaks his shell.

I'm not even going to guess how the leader of the Senate working from home will affect things. Yes, I know the Senate is in a five-week recess. I'm dubious of anyone older than the original King Kong movie recovering from a broken collarbone in a month.

Fuck. It could have been his hip. Why couldn't it be his hip.

[Lanrefni]

Fuck. It could have been his hip. Why couldn't it be his hip.

Neck would have been better.

[Breccia]

Hurd, fleeing the GOP as fast as his legs can take him, calls the attack white nationalism terrorism just before slamming the door.

Because the GOP seems to have strong ethics and morals the second they're no longer running for re-election.

...that's not fair, Hurd criticized Trump routinely. Fuck. This whole thing is just horrifying.

[Paranoid Android]

President Trump speaks after the mass shootings in El Paso and Dayton, praising law enforcement who responded: "As bad as it was, it could have been so much worse" https://t.co/ukF0I7ggWe https://t.co/VuhpgSLYh4

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1...943413256?s=19

Could have been worse??

Why did you elect such an effin moron President!

I wish we could have a compassionate President and one who can convey a well thought out statement.