Bull Market officially over!! Year heading negative.

[Zan15]

Trump now calling for negative rates...

Lol kiss Social Security goodbye faster...trillions in savings poof ..401ks invested in safe treasuries poof ..

Oh and don't worry your mortgage will still be 4-8% and credit cards 18%+...

Yet another massive gift to banks and corps

[Xyonai]

Leave it to this stupid asshole to tank a recovering Economy with less then two years of policies.

[Felya]

Trump now calling for negative rates...

Lol kiss Social Security goodbye faster...trillions in savings poof ..401ks invested in safe treasuries poof ..

Oh and don't worry your mortgage will still be 4-8% and credit cards 18%+...

Yet another massive gift to banks and corps

Just remember this when they start talking about not voting for corporatist democrats. Lunacy... absolute lunacy...

[jeezusisacasual]

Leave it to this stupid asshole to tank a recovering Economy with less then two years of policies.

This bubble was ready to pop regardless if he idled or not. We had been going towards the end of an expansion ( i still do not think we recovered ) regardless but he wanted to increase said bubble as the economy is his strongest selling point. We will have a recession by 2021 and likely announced by summer of next year. When you see articles from Janet Yellen talking about economic stability and more about that its time to really worry.

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Trump now calling for negative rates...

Lol kiss Social Security goodbye faster...trillions in savings poof ..401ks invested in safe treasuries poof ..

Oh and don't worry your mortgage will still be 4-8% and credit cards 18%+...

Yet another massive gift to banks and corps

People think that our financial institutions are similar to those in Nordic nations and to that i laugh at them because nothing we do is like them. Negative rates would be a DISASTER ( in sly skeevy director voice ). I think credit cards would balloon to around 30%. The 401ks could be alright but atleast 20% of them would lose some value perhaps closer to 40% of them. It would likely push some sort of UK austerity situation which in turn would compound as the grocers are reliant as is for food stamp money and more.


Good god i just had a conversation with a moron who said that once the trade war is finished they will just buy more of our soybeans except the fact that they signed on to Brazil.

[arandomuser]

god only the FINEST PEOPLE

and man were WINNING SO HARD

atleast the libs are triggered, thats why he was elected

[Felya]

god only the FINEST PEOPLE

and man were WINNING SO HARD

atleast the libs are triggered, thats why he was elected

It’s like he doesn’t believe the deficit he is causing.

[arandomuser]

It’s like he doesn’t believe the deficit he is causing.

nothing policy matters to these people, all they like is to post memes of " libs crying" thats what they get off on, the saddest part its 45% of the country

[Zan15]

nothing policy matters to these people, all they like is to post memes of " libs crying" thats what they get off on, the saddest part its 45% of the country

Nah it's about 23%, since what less than half the country votes. We can hope those kids of the 23% are not as ree Ree can't we??

[Edge-]

https://www.chicagotribune.com/busin...mry-story.html

I'm legit getting serious anxiety over the prospect of a second big recession. My only solace is knowing that the Fed is independent and consequently still has some tools to combat a recession, having not succumbed to Trump's political pressure and frequent attacks.

[Gestopft]

https://www.chicagotribune.com/busin...mry-story.html

I'm legit getting serious anxiety over the prospect of a second big recession. My only solace is knowing that the Fed is independent and consequently still has some tools to combat a recession, having not succumbed to Trump's political pressure and frequent attacks.

However the rate is less than half of where it was before the last recession. There's not a lot of cutting that can be done. Won't most of the response come down to Congress?

[Edge-]

However the rate is less than half of where it was before the last recession. There's not a lot of cutting that can be done. Won't most of the response come down to Congress?

Yes, they have fewer tools but at least they still have them. We're in better shape than the EU who already have largely bottomed out interest rates and other issues that limit their tools.

Congress is part of the picture, for sure. Stimulus helps...but it doesn't resolve longer term issues and realistically we can't keep pumping money into the economy to counter recessions and then just keep blowing up the deficit/debt in between recessions. That's completely unsustainable.

[jeezusisacasual]

https://www.chicagotribune.com/busin...mry-story.html

I'm legit getting serious anxiety over the prospect of a second big recession. My only solace is knowing that the Fed is independent and consequently still has some tools to combat a recession, having not succumbed to Trump's political pressure and frequent attacks.

I would not worry that much or atleast not enough to cause anxiety. Depending on your area of expertise you will likely be more then fine. The only thing that could prolong a recovery is the fact that the FED rate is already low to begin with and with the problems that negative rates cause i doubt they will go negative. We would have to see something akin to The Lost Decade of Japan before negative rates.

Tech got hammered today which is what has been keeping the market in a healthy area so its not shocking that it fueled the decline either. Just be happy if you do not own CVS.

[Draco-Onis]

Yes, they have fewer tools but at least they still have them. We're in better shape than the EU who already have largely bottomed out interest rates and other issues that limit their tools.

Congress is part of the picture, for sure. Stimulus helps...but it doesn't resolve longer term issues and realistically we can't keep pumping money into the economy to counter recessions and then just keep blowing up the deficit/debt in between recessions. That's completely unsustainable.

Reverse all the republican tax cuts from Trump and Bush that's a good 3-5 trillion dollars at the least or raise taxes on the rich and corporations to cover future stimulus. No one is going to feel bad for them no longer having negative tax rates.

[Felya]

https://www.chicagotribune.com/busin...mry-story.html

I'm legit getting serious anxiety over the prospect of a second big recession. My only solace is knowing that the Fed is independent and consequently still has some tools to combat a recession, having not succumbed to Trump's political pressure and frequent attacks.

Yeah, when the last one hit, I was on the job for over 5 years, so a lot of security. I’m at 5 months on my current job and am expensive... if shit hits the fan, I won’t be the first to go, but I won’t make it past the first 5. I do have a cushion to ride it out for about a year or two... but... I’d prefer not to use it.

Unfortunately, since Trump inflated the market during a economic boom, it’s inevitable. There is only so much Trump can spend to try staving it off for later... and hitting a trillion deficit during a recession is a problem. Bush’s TARP was 750 billion...

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Reverse all the republican tax cuts from Trump and Bush that's a good 3-5 trillion dollars at the least or raise taxes on the rich and corporations to cover future stimulus. No one is going to feel bad for them no longer having negative tax rates.

It’s not that simple...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/12/the-...-trillion.html

Though the tax cut lowered the rate corporations have to pay from 36% to 21%, tax receipts actually are up 3.2% year to date. Individual income tax receipts have risen just shy of 1%.

The deficit increase came largely due to increased spending on health care and the military. Medicare outlays rose 11% to $66 billion. Defense spending also was up $10 billion year over year to $53 billion.

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However the rate is less than half of where it was before the last recession. There's not a lot of cutting that can be done. Won't most of the response come down to Congress?

The solution is to fix US healthcare... Medicare can not afford to have only high risk patients, while insurance companies hog profits from low risk pools. Military cut is the other option, but I’m not going to even suggest it... it will be easier to pass healthcare reform, than to cut military spending. I think I’m going to be called unAmerican for even saying as much as I did... at least Skroe is banned, so I won’t get shit from there.

[Deletedaccount1]

https://www.newsweek.com/conservativ...x-cuts-1454024

What we need here is some kind of Tea Party movement.

Fucking lol.

Yes, but unironically.

[jeezusisacasual]

Yeah, when the last one hit, I was on the job for over 5 years, so a lot of security. I’m at 5 months on my current job and am expensive... if shit hits the fan, I won’t be the first to go, but I won’t make it past the first 5. I do have a cushion to ride it out for about a year or two... but... I’d prefer not to use it.

Unfortunately, since Trump inflated the market during a economic boom, it’s inevitable. There is only so much Trump can spend to try staving it off for later... and hitting a trillion deficit during a recession is a problem. Bush’s TARP was 750 billion...

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It’s not that simple...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/12/the-...-trillion.html



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The solution is to fix US healthcare... Medicare can not afford to have only high risk patients, while insurance companies hog profits from low risk pools. Military cut is the other option, but I’m not going to even suggest it... it will be easier to pass healthcare reform, than to cut military spending. I think I’m going to be called unAmerican for even saying as much as I did... at least Skroe is banned, so I won’t get shit from there.

The fact that Medicare can not place price controls/negotiate is the large problem for its expansion in costs and i would like to cut the military budget but that comes at a time when China is the new USSR which complicates things. The simple way to say it is that taxation is going to have to rise on all incomes of people regardless and which ever party does this will be chastised to hell and back. Going back on the Nixon 1973 insurance plan would be a nice starter at allivating healthcare costs but again i doubt it would do much as once that genie is out of the bottle good luck putting it back, its the same reason why people say that universal healthcare is hard to pass because once it passes it is set in stone forever.

[Zan15]

The fact that Medicare can not place price controls/negotiate is the large problem for its expansion in costs and i would like to cut the military budget but that comes at a time when China is the new USSR which complicates things. The simple way to say it is that taxation is going to have to rise on all incomes of people regardless and which ever party does this will be chastised to hell and back. Going back on the Nixon 1973 insurance plan would be a nice starter at allivating healthcare costs but again i doubt it would do much as once that genie is out of the bottle good luck putting it back, its the same reason why people say that universal healthcare is hard to pass because once it passes it is set in stone forever.

Well the real biggest problem is that the baby boomer generation and their parents stopped the tax increase on workers wages for Medicare and SS from increasing around the early 90's and they have not been paying enough into the system to cover their cost. Before the 1990's there was incremental increases in Medicare/SS taxes in order to keep up with cost of medical inflation.

Wage increases alone have not been enough to cover the cost of individuals own benefits.... or even close to the underfunded benefits of the baby boomer generation

Premium increases on seniors does not come close to cover their cost.

1981- 6.7
1984- 7.0
1985- 7.05
1986- 7.15
1988-7.5
1990- 7.65

19 increases from 1937 to 1981
no increases since 1990

How do they expect these two not to go bankrupt or pay out less benefits??



None of the estimations on life expectancy expected them to live as long as they are now, thus their experience rating was undercalculated and now the rest of the workforce is going to get stuck with the bill.

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The deficit increase came largely due to increased spending on health care and the military. Medicare outlays rose 11% to $66 billion. Defense spending also was up $10 billion year over year to $53 billion.

The solution is to fix US healthcare... Medicare can not afford to have only high risk patients, while insurance companies hog profits from low risk pools. Military cut is the other option, but I’m not going to even suggest it... it will be easier to pass healthcare reform, than to cut military spending. I think I’m going to be called unAmerican for even saying as much as I did... at least Skroe is banned, so I won’t get shit from there.

Most of that Medicare increase is still covered by payroll taxes specifically for Medicare so its inherently not increasing the debt anywhere near the same amount the increased deficit spending is.

[Felya]

Most of that Medicare increase is still covered by payroll taxes specifically for Medicare so its inherently not increasing the debt anywhere near the same amount the increased deficit spending is.

I totally get, that... after all, 11% of 66 billion, is only 7.26 billion. With 119 billion increase in deficit on the 12th.

But... I am suggesting that government can profit on Medicare, if the current cost of insurance is applied to Medicare, along with all of the low risk pools. I believe there are billions to be had there... 5% of insurance companies is profit, with a lot more to be had without advertising and CEOs or sales teams. I don’t know how much that is, but it’s a net gain if we assume plans remain exactly the same... minus insurance companies... is worth it.

Edit: See... even in a “socialist” argument, I aim to net a profit... how “capitalist” of me... so conflicted... gerrr?

Edit 2: and no fucking stadiums named after Medicare... wtf insurance companies? That spending isn’t profit...

https://www.metlifestadium.com/

[Rasulis]

I would not worry that much or atleast not enough to cause anxiety. Depending on your area of expertise you will likely be more then fine. The only thing that could prolong a recovery is the fact that the FED rate is already low to begin with and with the problems that negative rates cause i doubt they will go negative. We would have to see something akin to The Lost Decade of Japan before negative rates.

Tech got hammered today which is what has been keeping the market in a healthy area so its not shocking that it fueled the decline either. Just be happy if you do not own CVS.

I guess after living through 3 of them, I am meh about the whole recession thing.

Tech sector goes down.

Look at revenue, still increasing.

Look at profit, still double digit.

Look at PE ratio, Apple at the low end with 18 and Facebook at the high end with 32. Not too bad. A lot lower than what they were in 2000 when the PE ratio of the tech sector was over 60, or in 2008 when the financial sector PE ratio was over 120.

Not losing any sleep yet.

[Zan15]

I totally get, that... after all, 11% of 66 billion, is only 7.26 billion. With 119 billion increase in deficit on the 12th.

But... I am suggesting that government can profit on Medicare, if the current cost of insurance is applied to Medicare, along with all of the low risk pools. I believe there are billions to be had there... 5% of insurance companies is profit, with a lot more to be had without advertising and CEOs or sales teams. I don’t know how much that is, but it’s a net gain if we assume plans remain exactly the same... minus insurance companies... is worth it.

Edit: See... even in a “socialist” argument, I aim to net a profit... how “capitalist” of me... so conflicted... gerrr?

Edit 2: and no fucking stadiums named after Medicare... wtf insurance companies? That spending isn’t profit...

oh I agree, technically social security has run a profit for 95% of the years its been around. finally after 25 years of no increases its loosing money.




Most insurance companies btw, their health insurance divisions are sub 3% profit margins.
They have bigger margins on the other divisions they own.

but 3% of hundreds of billions in premiums is a lot.



and technically Medicare pays billions for advertising, they just pay 3rd parties to do it for them.

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I guess after living through 3 of them, I am meh about the whole recession thing.

Tech sector goes down.

Look at revenue, still increasing.

Look at profit, still double digit.

Look at PE ratio, Apple at the low end with 18 and Facebook at the high end with 32. Not too bad. A lot lower than what they were in 2000 when the PE ratio of the tech sector was over 60, or in 2008 when the financial sector PE ratio was over 120.

Not losing any sleep yet.

Earnings evaporate fast in a downturn, or a perceived downturn...….and PE's will explode.