Bull Market officially over!! Year heading negative.

[DocSavageFan]

We're currently experiencing the longest economic expansion in US history...and we're long overdue for a recession. However, we may avoid it if the Fed doesn't do anything stupid.

[Crispin]

Something something, pull yourself up by your bootstraps and become a CEO.

Because there's unlimited amounts of job openings as a CEO.

[Thekri]

We're currently experiencing the longest economic expansion in US history...and we're long overdue for a recession. However, we may avoid it if the Fed doesn't do anything stupid.

Ah, I see you are jumping full on the Trump/Fox News strategy of blaming the Fed for not fixing all the problems caused by a listless, poorly planned, and arbitrarily implemented economic policy of this current administration. The Fed can't really do very much, they essentially get control only over interest rates, which is powerful, but scarcely the only economic variable. When you break the entire rest of the economy, interest policy isn't going to save you.

In fact none of our previous recessions have been caused by interest rates, every single one of them has always been caused by unregulated corporate greed. Sometimes it is greed on stock markets, sometimes on subprime loans, sometimes on commodities prices, but in every case the government was very reluctant to step in and slow the obscene profits that were being made until it all collapsed.

[DocSavageFan]

Ah, I see you are jumping full on the Trump/Fox News strategy of blaming the Fed for not fixing all the problems caused by a listless, poorly planned, and arbitrarily implemented economic policy of this current administration. The Fed can't really do very much, they essentially get control only over interest rates, which is powerful, but scarcely the only economic variable. When you break the entire rest of the economy, interest policy isn't going to save you.

In fact none of our previous recessions have been caused by interest rates, every single one of them has always been caused by unregulated corporate greed. Sometimes it is greed on stock markets, sometimes on subprime loans, sometimes on commodities prices, but in every case the government was very reluctant to step in and slow the obscene profits that were being made until it all collapsed.

Citation please.

[Redwyrm]

We're currently experiencing the longest economic expansion in US history...and we're long overdue for a recession. However, we may avoid it if the Fed doesn't do anything stupid.

While the economy is growing, you can in no way call this a "booming" economy. This is modest to tepid growth. This is like someone who broke their legs and is slowly beginning to walk again. Yes, they are walking but not exactly running sprints. And here comes Trump and kneecaps the guy.

And please stop with the tired Trump excuse of it's the Feds fault. The Fed reacts to signs in the market are adjusts accordingly. They saw the strain that Trumps tariffs were having globally and nationally. In a trade war that Trump started. The Fed saw that this is going to slow the modest economic growth we have been getting over the past few years and is reacting to prevent a depression/recession/slow down.

[Breccia]

Ah, I see you are jumping full on the Trump/Fox News strategy of blaming the Fed for not fixing all the problems caused by a listless, poorly planned, and arbitrarily implemented economic policy of this current administration.

Hey Thekri, who appointed the current Fed Chair, Jerome Powell?

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While the economy is growing, you can in no way call this a "booming" economy. This is modest to tepid growth.

It is actually slightly worse growth than "worst President ever" Obama had. Trump campaigned and ran against that economy, promising he could do better.

[Thekri]

Citation please.

Ok, instead of a lazy response that tries to get me to falsify an unfalsifiable claim, how about you point me to a single long term economic downturn that was caused by federal interest rates?

You can't, because research and facts are your thing, and anything that isn't covered by Brietbart and Fox News might as well be written in Mayan for you. You are just reciting a talking point, you don't know what it means or what the fed actually does.

[Dontrike]

We're currently experiencing the longest economic expansion in US history...and we're long overdue for a recession. However, we may avoid it if the Fed doesn't do anything stupid.

Uhuh, it's the Fed that will do the stupid thing, not the stupid orange man currently doing all of the stupid things.

[Thekri]

Hey Thekri, who appointed the current Fed Chair, Jerome Powell?

I know, but it won't even register on a Trump supporter. For some reason they are completely fine dumping on dozens of different Trump appointees without ever questioning the wisdom of the person appointing them.

[DocSavageFan]

Ok, instead of a lazy response that tries to get me to falsify an unfalsifiable claim, how about you point me to a single long term economic downturn that was caused by federal interest rates?

You can't, because research and facts are your thing, and anything that isn't covered by Brietbart and Fox News might as well be written in Mayan for you. You are just reciting a talking point, you don't know what it means or what the fed actually does.

Can't provide a citation for your horseshit assertion? I thought not.

The Fed caused the two back-to-back recessions in 1980-82 by raising interest rates to combat inflation.
https://www.thebalance.com/the-histo...states-3306011

Dude, you're the one regurgitating incredibly stupid talking points here...not me. Apparently if it isn't covered by Mother Jones and MSNBC it might as well be written in Mayan for you.

[Dontrike]

Can't provide a citation for your horseshit assertion? I thought not.

The Fed caused the two back-to-back recessions in 1980-82 by raising interest rates to combat inflation.
https://www.thebalance.com/the-histo...states-3306011

Dude, you're the one regurgitating incredibly stupid talking points here...not me. Apparently if it isn't covered by Mother Jones and MSNBC it might as well be written in Mayan for you.

Yay, you showed your work. Good for you.

Unfortunately, it has only caused one recession, so while it has happened it's not likely they will be the cause of it again, especially considering that Trump has been trying his best to cause one to happen.

[DocSavageFan]

Yay, you showed your work. Good for you.

Unfortunately, it has only caused one recession, so while it has happened it's not likely they will be the cause of it again, especially considering that Trump has been trying his best to cause one to happen.

A sustained increase in interest rates and unrelenting QT policy brought us to the brink. Thankfully the Fed backed off and hopefully avoided a recession.

[Thekri]

Can't provide a citation for your horseshit assertion? I thought not.

The Fed caused the two back-to-back recessions in 1980-82 by raising interest rates to combat inflation.
https://www.thebalance.com/the-histo...states-3306011

Dude, you're the one regurgitating incredibly stupid talking points here...not me. Apparently if it isn't covered by Mother Jones and MSNBC it might as well be written in Mayan for you.

Well, golf clap on finding something that technically counts. The 1980 recession was caused by inflation and commodities shock, and was badly reacted to by the fed. It is like blaming the fire department for destroying a house after the botched it after it was already on fire.

[DocSavageFan]

Well, golf clap on finding something that technically counts. The 1980 recession was caused by inflation and commodities shock, and was badly reacted to by the fed. It is like blaming the fire department for destroying a house after the botched it after it was already on fire.

It's not a mere technicality...you were wrong. Man up ffs.

[Thekri]

It's not a mere technicality...you were wrong. Man up ffs.

Basic history here man, this isn't hard.

The early 1980s recession was a severe global economic recession that affected much of the developed world in the late 1970s and early 1980s. The United States and Japan exited the recession relatively early, but high unemployment would continue to affect other OECD nations until at least 1985

. Two things to notice. First, it was a global recession, it didn't start in the US. Second, the US exited the recession early. Unemployement was already over 7% before the Fed changed rates.

The rate changes were a direct response to inflation rates that were already over 11% on an annualized basis. It wasn't the Fed messing up so much as it was the Fed deliberately tanking the economy to save the long term viability of US currency, which did work, and led to the boom of the 1990s. Then, as now, it was the Fed choosing between a host of bad options because the entire rest of the economy was fundamentally broken.

You didn't "get me", you just don't know what historical context is.

[Draco-Onis]

A sustained increase in interest rates and unrelenting QT policy brought us to the brink. Thankfully the Fed backed off and hopefully avoided a recession.

sigh interest rates were near zero if the fed does not increase interest rates when a recession does hit they will have nowhere to go but negative interest rates and that is bad place to be. The reason we are facing a recession is because of Trump's policies the tax cut was projected to be a short term buzz versus doing infrastructure or a real middle class tax cut which would have been stimulative. There's also the madness of doing stimulative policies when the economy was still going well, imagine if he had saved it for when it looked like the recession was around the corner. Trump's trade war is cause global retraction in growth because we are part of a global economy and twitter economics is fucking idiotic.

I would imagine Trump will settle for a bad deal with China to boost the economy and his poll numbers bringing us in a worse place than before. I suggest you at least understand the basics involved in this, the fed is not the one in a trade war with China, the fed is not the one destroying health care, the fed isn't the one making everyone nervous with constant tweeting.

[Fahrenheit]

Outside of my own contributions, my 403b has largely gone nowhere for awhile now.

[Low Hanging Fruit]

Does anyone get the feeling China is just sitting around awaiting election season to just pistol whip Trump? China always plays the long game and I think taking a hit to remove the only idiot willing to tariff trade would fit into the long game strategy. It will be more devastating since investors seem to blindly invest based on tweets of the same man that is so desperate for the economy to be propted up that he would say anything to acomplish it. It feels like a tweet bubble and China is holding the needle.

[D Luniz]

Does anyone get the feeling China is just sitting around awaiting election season to just pistol whip Trump? China always plays the long game and I think taking a hit to remove the only idiot willing to tariff trade would fit into the long game strategy. It will be more devastating since investors seem to blindly invest based on tweets of the same man that is so desperate for the economy to be propted up that he would say anything to acomplish it. It feels like a tweet bubble and China is holding the needle.

They have been buying ALOT of excess oil and just sitting on it. So dumping it to tank prices would hurt the shale industry rather bad as they are rather shaky as it is.

[jeezusisacasual]

Does anyone get the feeling China is just sitting around awaiting election season to just pistol whip Trump? China always plays the long game and I think taking a hit to remove the only idiot willing to tariff trade would fit into the long game strategy. It will be more devastating since investors seem to blindly invest based on tweets of the same man that is so desperate for the economy to be propted up that he would say anything to acomplish it. It feels like a tweet bubble and China is holding the needle.

I doubt this in all honesty. I think that they could have a far bigger shock to global markets by dumping US Treasuries. Now if you are talking about using both as a way to push further economic hard onto the US economy then i can start to get that idea but i still think it is rather to soon for them to show their hand so to speak. China does play the long game and will continue to do so until they feel as if they will win in a big enough push that will allow them to trade places with dominance in their backyard. I could also see China disrupting monetary markets as it is their strongest move currently.

If nothing changed from today China would supplant the US economy within a decade anyway which is why they are going slowly in regards to this trade war that they did not start, they have the leverage currently.