The Brexit aftermath thread

[Slant]

I think the main concern for the Irish is their supply chains. I would assume that it would not be uncommon for Irish retailers to depend on UK wholesalers and logistics.

Not as much as the UK would like. Ireland has made efforts to diversify. Will this hurt them? Sure. Just as it will hurt the EU. But it will hurt the UK more, as this example demonstrates. This whole enterprise is a foolish endeavour.

[ranzino]

Boris Johnson 'confident' EU will back down in Brexit talks

nu nu confidence out of thin air or what gave him this idea ?

[Twdft]

Boris Johnson 'confident' EU will back down in Brexit talks

nu nu confidence out of thin air or what gave him this idea ?

And again not a single word what to actually do instead of the backstop.

[Mayhem]

And again not a single word what to actually do instead of the backstop.

Maybe they float the idea of implanting everyone and everything with a tracking device or something, you know an electronic solution.

[Slant]

I don't know, every scenario I've seen shows the RoI taking somewhat more damage than the UK (and the rest of the EU far less)

The RoI has the EU supporting it, whatever happens, unconditionally. And then there's this:

https://www.ft.com/content/eaae31b2-...5-873e61754ec6

From behind the Paywall:

Brexit has turned into a hostage situation. Boris Johnson is the kidnapper, Ireland is the captive and the backstop is the ransom. The British message to the EU is, “Drop the backstop or we’ll kill the hostage in a no-deal shootout”. Doubtless the UK could inflict much harm on Ireland, particularly in agriculture: near 70 per cent of UK beef imports come from Ireland, for example. And crashing out could badly interrupt Ireland’s global supply chain. Nearly half of the 475,000 Irish freight containers of cargo per year going through British ports go to the EU.

That said, the Irish economy is much less dependent on the UK than many Brexiters imagine. Tactically, Dublin knows that “no deal” is only “no deal” for now. The UK must eventually do a trade deal with the EU because 46 per cent of UK exports go to the EU and 53 per cent of UK imports come from the EU. No matter how the hostage drama turns out, and no matter what the political and economic fallout, the UK will be back at the table soon. The more chaos at British ports, the shorter the self-imposed mercantile lockout.

[...]

Ireland buys more from Britain because Ireland is much richer. Rich people buy stuff. On a conservative estimate, the Irish are now over 25 per cent richer than their UK counterparts. Irish income per capita rose from €13,934 in 1995 to €40,655 in 2018 — growth of 192 per cent. In contrast, UK income per capita rose from £21,716 in 1995 to £30,594 in 2018 — growth of roughly 41 per cent. Ireland is growing nearly five times faster than the UK every year. Chart showing how the share of Ireland's merchandise exports going to the UK has been steadily declining

Ireland is also a far more globalised economy. When Britain pulled out of Ireland, it took its capital too. It’s taken us a while to catch up, but eventually we deployed fresh American capital by using our tax system, transforming the economy. This export-orientation ensured that Ireland is today a formidable trading machine. Based on the most recent data, the value of all goods and services exports per employed person in Ireland was €126,630 per year, compared to just €17,627 in the UK. Total trade in Ireland was 178 per cent of Ireland’s gross domestic product, which was significantly higher than the EU overall (77 per cent) and the UK (54 per cent). If there is a Singapore of Europe, it wears green not red, white and blue.

As Ireland and the UK are in competition with each other for mobile capital and talent, arguably Brexit will be positive for Ireland. Which looks more attractive, the country that is open to everyone, with fully free access to the EU and no barriers to work, or the country that needlessly erects tariffs and borders against the trading bloc with which it does half of its trade?

Ireland can’t stop the UK if it intends to go down this route, but the EU single market and customs union are far more important for us. We understand the yearning for sovereignty, identity and independence, believe me. But just one piece of advice: the first 70 years are the hardest, after that it gets easier.

- - - Updated - - -

And again not a single word what to actually do instead of the backstop.

You haven't gotten it in 3 years, what makes you think you would get it in the last 3 months of this charade? They got nothing. I thought we established that? They got nothing but a big pile of bullshit and hate.

[Drutt]

If the EU was going to blink, it would have happened on either of the previous two deadlines.

It's not going to happen. Johnson is an imbecile, but that isn't news.

[ranzino]

You haven't gotten it in 3 years, what makes you think you would get it in the last 3 months of this charade? They got nothing. I thought we established that? They got nothing but a big pile of bullshit and hate.

as said some pages ago: he'll meet Macron tomorrow and Merkel on wednesday. just a silly bluff for the base at home or something is brewing and he maybe accepts ''NI only'' backstop and then blames EU and to rescue Brexit he gave up.

[Demolitia]

as said some pages ago: he'll meet Macron tomorrow and Merkel on wednesday. just a silly bluff for the base at home or something is brewing and he maybe accepts ''NI only'' backstop and then blames EU and to rescue Brexit he gave up.

A NI only backstop is not an option. NI doesn't want to have a separate status as the UK. Whatever bullshit he thinks he can blather after the meetings will not pass the commons.

[Kallisto]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...deal-or-remain

The name is Jeremy Corbyn and he does not want your vote or anyone's it seems.

[ati87]

When I was reading fantasy short story I kind of pictured this scene. This anime character understood his position perfectly where this F@ck is trying to bluff while showing all of his cards.

Yesterdays leak (or day before) tells us exactly what we all knew, you don't try to undermine the entire economy which you spend decades trying to build in a single stupid referendum financed by a few rich assholes.

[Fkiolaris]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...deal-or-remain

The name is Jeremy Corbyn and he does not want your vote or anyone's it seems.

You don't know what you are talking about mate! Apparently Corbyn is a pro-EU person that is simply misunderstood !!!!

[Kronik85]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...deal-or-remain

The name is Jeremy Corbyn and he does not want your vote or anyone's it seems.

It's unsurprising, expected really. He's always used "weasel words" (hate the term but it's apt) when it comes to the People's Vote and tbf he's consistent. He wants to Brexit but only with a new deal negotiated by himself (that we can only assume will look much like the WA we have but with a Customs Union rather than a Backstop despite them being functionally the same thing).

I'd complain about the incompetence on display here but the Remain contingent of the Commons have truly put Corbyn to shame really. It's tough for the Lib Dems, they are the only party that seems to actually be held to account on broken promises but I'll never be voting for Jo after she sabotaged the only shot she had at stopping BoJo.

So fuck the Remain Camp in Parlimamet, this wasn't hard and you've all fucked it. Maybe the reckoning at the next GE might serve as a lesson to you.

[Pann]

Ooh! Johnson tells Tusk that the backstop must go.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/stat...293073413?s=19

It'll be interesting to see where this goes.

[zealo]

Ooh! Johnson tells Tusk that the backstop must go.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/stat...293073413?s=19

It'll be interesting to see where this goes.

We already know where this is going, the backstop is not getting dropped, period.

[dribbles]

We already know where this is going, the backstop is not getting dropped, period.

It is getting dropped. Deal or no deal the backstop is dead.

[LeGin Tufnel]

Ooh! Johnson tells Tusk that the backstop must go.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/stat...293073413?s=19

It'll be interesting to see where this goes.

I’d laugh if the EU did actually roll over at this point.

They won’t though as they will recognise this for what it is: a letter to the Tory right / potential BXP voters via headline writers in the tabloids, not Tusk.

[Muzjhath]

It is getting dropped. Deal or no deal the backstop is dead.

The backstop will get dropped. And the "this obviously isn't the backstop because we say it isn't" will get added.

[Slant]

I’d laugh if the EU did actually roll over at this point.

They won’t though as they will recognise this for what it is: a letter to the Tory right / potential BXP voters via headline writers in the tabloids, not Tusk.

Regardless of who this is for, the EU won't compromise its outer borders. Period. There's not even a debate to be had.

[Pann]

I’d laugh if the EU did actually roll over at this point.

They won’t though as they will recognise this for what it is: a letter to the Tory right / potential BXP voters via headline writers in the tabloids, not Tusk.

Oh yeah, without doubt the letter is intended for domestic audience as well but it does have a whiff of The Backstop is dead, long live the Backstop!

Will it be enough to re-open the backstop or will it be rejected offhand? Who knows? But whatever happens I cannot see this doing Johnson any harm; if the EU back down he'll be a hero, if they don't it'll prove what the leavers knew all along.

[Xarkan]

Oh yeah, without doubt the letter is intended for domestic audience as well but it does have a whiff of The Backstop is dead, long live the Backstop!

Will it be enough to re-open the backstop or will it be rejected offhand? Who knows? But whatever happens I cannot see this doing Johnson any harm; if the EU back down he'll be a hero, if they don't it'll prove what the leavers knew all along.

The EU cannot back down

What is asked is that the EU compromise the integrity of the inner market

That cannot and will not happen