200k-250k Players: Classic Wow Numbers - North America Only

[Fascinate]

No matter what they do, day 1 will be a shit show. I doubt even half the number of people going to play classic has even subbed yet.

Ya im on pagle which is a pve server and its been at full status for over a week now, im expecting a 5+ hour queue there and the pvp realms might hit 10 hours or more.

[Extremities]

As of right now there are 14 servers released for Classic.
Each server has been classified as medium/high/full.

Herod is expected to have a 10k+ queue. Based on pure speculation, Herod has 40,000 players on it.

Let's say on average, each server has 15k players registered to it.
With the 14 servers released as of today, we're talking about 210k players.

Within a 32.2222222222%, repeating of course, degree of confidence; I say classic wow has 200-250k players as of today.

The good news, according to blizzard a "low" tag as of today is more players then the highest population servers of vanilla. (5k population).
We're getting the classic experience in less then a week!

And those numbers will drop significantly after the first month.

I really don't understand the massive hype for it. I loved vanilla in all its glory and still feel its among the best content the game had in terms of sense of accomplishment, challenge, etc, players knowing their classes inside and out, COMMUNITY. But, with these classic servers having a content cap, I just don't see them lasting that long. I could be 100% wrong and they last for a long time but seeing as how ppl bitch and complain about the lack of content in most games, mmos, current wow, etc, I just don't see how it can last.

[Fascinate]

And those numbers will drop significantly after the first month.

I really don't understand the massive hype for it. I loved vanilla in all its glory and still feel its among the best content the game had in terms of sense of accomplishment, challenge, etc, players knowing their classes inside and out, COMMUNITY. But, with these classic servers having a content cap, I just don't see them lasting that long. I could be 100% wrong and they last for a long time but seeing as how ppl bitch and complain about the lack of content in most games, mmos, current wow, etc, I just don't see how it can last.

You do know the content is being unlocked in stages right? You cant just kill kel'thuzad a month after the game launches lol. Once that finally does happen tho the natural progression would be fresh TBC servers, and the hype for that i assume may even surpass classic.

[roxfm]

All the pvp servers will become 99% one faction or the other.

Except Oceanic - which only has 1 PVP server right now - Arugal.

OT: I believe that at least 300-500k will play Classic when it launches (I've saved a name, but I doubt I have the time to play anymore). But yes, a lot of people will try it out, and then as many others have pointed out, I'd like to actually see trade chat spams after 3-4 months to see how easy / hard it is for DPS to get groups for 5-mans / UBRS / MC etc.

My best guess is that at least 150-200k will continually play through it all, which isn't a bad regular number for a 15 year old product.

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Edited: removed double post

[Toby451]

Almost to that 10 million mark!

[Gorgodeus]

All the pvp servers will become 99% one faction or the other.

Moving the goal posts, I see. Proof of your assertion?

[ShimmerSwirl]

Month 1-2: Crazy Busy
Month 3-4: Moderate
Month 5-6: Consolidate servers?

To each their own, but I couldn't imagine playing Retail WoW anymore, let alone for months on end.

Agreed. I think we might see retail go into maintenance mode pretty soon.

[xenogear3]

I bet people reserve names on 3+ servers.

The actually number is less than 100k.

[Sensa1]

I bet people reserve names on 3+ servers.

The actually number is less than 100k.

and you don't think Blizzard could figure that out? They wouldn't be opening new servers if there wasn't a "real" demand.

[Gratlim]

Times it by 7 and we get 1.75m. hardly close to the 10m that is thrown around as fact.

10m?! That is ridiculous. I am looking forward to classic but I personally don't expect more than 1mill steady pop 3 months in.

I mean for all we know, live probably has hardly a bit more than that (between 2 and 3 mill?).

Side note: on OP post the server list is 14. That means the pop estimate is only for the US (14 servers as of now I think). You can probably double that with EU servers (English, German, French and russian).

[Inci]

As of right now there are 14 servers released for Classic.
Each server has been classified as medium/high/full.

Herod is expected to have a 10k+ queue. Based on pure speculation, Herod has 40,000 players on it.

Let's say on average, each server has 15k players registered to it.
With the 14 servers released as of today, we're talking about 210k players.

Within a 32.2222222222%, repeating of course, degree of confidence; I say classic wow has 200-250k players as of today.

The good news, according to blizzard a "low" tag as of today is more players then the highest population servers of vanilla. (5k population).
We're getting the classic experience in less then a week!

Actually, they said "medium".

[ClassicPeon]

I bet people reserve names on 3+ servers.

The actually number is less than 100k.

you can only reserve 3 names...

[Trunksee]

Everyone knows that the launch is going to be explosive. All Blizzard games have an explosive launch. It will drop drastically a month or two in. With each phase getting a slight bump in numbers and decreasing shortly after.

Bumps are unlikely as there are no real catch up mechanics like live. If you miss out on keeping your character up to date gear wise even with new content you will be severely undergeared.

[Bladesyphon]

You know it goes both ways right... Thanks for supporting Classic development with your retail sub.

I do not understand why anyone would want either retail or classic to fail. Both boost Blizz's earnings and open the door for more projects. Both allow people to have fun. Play the one you want, or (what a concept) both, and move on with your lives. Fuck.

This, though to be fair, I imagine more of the sub money will be going towards making Retail better, since there's very little in the way of maintence needed for Classic (as said by Blizzard themselves), and it seems like they're pretty confident that doing BC and Wrath servers won't be such a gigantic under taking like Classic was.

Point still stands though - Classic and Retail subs are one and the same, the money is funneled right back into WoW to help keep the game running, and make the game better overall. I am a bit saddened though to see the numbers aren't all that impressive as of yet. I mean, it's still pretty damn amazing that a fifteen year old came can manage to get nearly half the subs of a modern MMO like FFXIV, both before it's even released and in the wake of an expansion for said game, so even if it hovers around 250-300K by launch day, that's still a damned good feat to behold.

That's also just people that have per-registered as well. We don't know yet how many people are going to be dabbling into it from Retail as well, so in theory that number could still go higher (and likely will). I'm more interested (and hopeful) that it's going to pull in more new, active subs over time rather than just maintain a healthy balance between currently existing subs.

[derpkitteh]

It's likely he doesn't play WoW anymore and is just returning for Classic.

idk, he might. modern wow does kinda work for people on them tight schedules, that's the kind of person they designed it around.

idk why it's still so surprising, or i care, when celebrities play wow. it's such a normie thing to find interesting, but i can't help it.

[Lionhearte0]

Thats not a big number to be fair, esspecially when you considerin in the fact that alot of em will bugger off in the first two months.

That's not a big number considering this is only reservation. I have 5 friends I know of that plan on playing. None of them reserved their names.

[Hottage]

Only 250,000 in NA? I thought everyone was predicting Classic would have 5 million players and outpace Retail within the first month?

[Gorgodeus]

Obviously can’t be proved but I think it’s highly likely given that every single pvp server on live was very imbalanced, as was war mode. As soon as one faction starts to dominate the other will leave.

If every single pvp server was "very imbalanced", it could be proven. Fact is, it is false.

[Moozart]

I bet people reserve names on 3+ servers.

The actually number is less than 100k.

I reserved names with 3 diff Bnet accounts just so other's couldn't get them with zero intentions on playing, many people in my guild did the same thing across different bnets.

Side note, I have Unbreakable on 2 diff servers if someone wants to pony up some gold.

[Zka]

I guess that's just the ones who went to reserve names. Surely most people didn't give a fuck to reserve name - for example me. Surely, many people won't care to sub and log in until classic release or a few days afterwards... and so on... first weeks going to be BRUTAL.