I don't think Blizzard is prepared/aware of what is going to happen on launch.

[Coffer]

They're prepared for it. They already said they have multiple servers prepped and ready. Underestimating with the possibility of reacting quickly is always preferable to overestimating and ending up with massive financial losses (resulting from the maintenance of dead servers + all the people unsubscribing after ~2 months because they ended up on a dead server). That's just how businesses operate.

[voidillusion]

So, this might just be anecdotal evidence from my small circle of WoW friends I know. But we are 6 people, and out of those only 3 of us are currently subscribed to WoW, the other 3 have either never played BFA or quit shortly after. They see no reason to subscribe to WoW (Classic) just for the name, they will just pick what's available once it actually launches. Although I did reserve a name for one of them since he asked, so some people might ask their friends to reserve names for them!

Now, I don't think the player-base will be +50% (based on my example) bigger than they currently think it will be, but I strongly believe there has to be a big amount of players that dislike retail so much and don't care about a name that they won't subscribe any day earlier than actual release.

What do you think? How big is the "unknown" playerbase nobody knows about.

I can only tell you about my case, i will only sub on the 26th and not a day earlier. Already played what i had to play on BFA and extremely disliked it, so my sub will be 100% towards classic and only that.

[Amerissis]

How big is the "unknown" playerbase nobody knows about.

You kind of give it away, don't you?

[Whistl3r]

Hmmm, who is more aware? The Billion dollar company who have run the most successful MMORPG for the last 15 years or some bloke of the internet and his gang of mates?

I'm expecting a smooth launch with all possibilities catered for. The biggest problems will arise from those not heeding the warning that the server they've picked is massively over subscribed and still complaining about very long queues to get into the game.

[Qnubi]

Came here to say that...thanks.

Especially since random internet posters cannot pinpoint any numbers, just vaguely claim "Blizzard has no idea" so no matter what hiccup happens, they can say "told you so"

But hey, Blizzard said they were surprised by the success of Vanilla in 2004 / 2005 and could not get more servers up quick enough...

Nah, that isn't my plan at all. I don't enjoy "told you so" moments. I am no fortune teller. I was just pointing out that while Blizzard is prepared for the known, they can't be prepared for the unknown, me asking "how big" is it gonna be was trying to get a discussion going. If I didn't I would have just stated a fact. Because yeah, even Blizzard doesn't know the unknown, that's why it's... unknown.

- - - Updated - - -

You kind of give it away, don't you?

I wanted to know estimates, how big do you think is it gonna be?

[Kolvarg]

I'm expecting a smooth launch with all possibilities catered for. The biggest problems will arise from those not heeding the warning that the server they've picked is massively over subscribed and still complaining about very long queues to get into the game.

Not so sure about that. I'm personally expecting a somewhat messy launch, at least the first few hours. Even opening the realms for name reservation was messy, at least when comparing to the recent quality of Blizzard launches (both Legion and BfA were pretty smooth for the majority of realms at least).

But personally I don't have a lot of faith in the layering technology.

https://eu.forums.blizzard.com/en/wo...ugust-21/72703

Any realm that is listed above Medium should expect queues at launch, with increasing severity from High to Full.

[deenman]

But they said they literally don't care about those numbers, lol

sure but that doesnt mean that they want the experience of those that play to be crap,and being on dead servers after spending months of your time will suck

[Sprinky]

By far the biggest mistake they have made here is allowing people to reserve 3 names. If your guild considers rerolling onto one of the fresh/lower pop servers there is no way anyone will delete their reserved names from the high pop servers. This means that we actually have no idea which server will be bombarded on launch. The latest global survey results actually point to Firemaw EU being the highest pop of all servers. This is the server that Blizz has just told everyone to reroll onto from Shazzrah.

Im particularly annoyed about this because on launch night it will be too late to do anything about it. If half your guild gets right into the server and starts levelling and the other half gets stuck in queues, nobody will want to log out and reroll on another server.

[Amerissis]

I wanted to know estimates, how big do you think is it gonna be?

FIVE million! Or maybe 1. Or 10.000.

[Shigma]

As per usual, i'd say they know what's coming perfectly, as always, but the thing is, why do extra work/pay more bills, when people already paid and you know they are going to suck it up anyway, as every other time, and it will get better eventually.

I mean, cold logid dictates that's the smart thing for them, afterall.

[Big Thanks]

FIVE million! Or maybe 1. Or 10.000.

Its impossible for a game to have more pre orders than retail sales on week 1. (statistically)

So the number will be greater than what we have today.
If lets say classic right now has 250 000 US players reserved...it will have 500 000 players on week 1 or more.

[Kumorii]

What % of current subs do you think will just ignore Classic?

Ignore completely, probably 30%. 60% who will try it once, the rest either stay or drop off later on.

[Celarent]

They presumably have tons of info we don't. Launch activity history and trends, current subscribers, resubscriptions, Classic installations, Battle.net logins, Classic logins and/or name reservations, official forum activity, and whatever they're willing and able to datamine third-party.

[outflow]

On the other hand, I think there are plenty of people subscribed to Retail who don't currently have any plans to play Classic, but have created characters anyway just to reserve the name in case they might want to play in the future (e.g. perhaps during a content drought). This would inflate the perceived interest in Classic..

I fall into the category.

[Shadochi]

Its impossible for a game to have more pre orders than retail sales on week 1. (statistically)

So the number will be greater than what we have today.
If lets say classic right now has 250 000 US players reserved...it will have 500 000 players on week 1 or more.

That argument works only if you look at the subscription as a preorder, which it is not. For many players that play retail it is completely free and they might've just reserved a name with an intention to use it down the line, not play straight away.

[HuxNeva]

Ignore completely, probably 30%. 60% who will try it once, the rest either stay or drop off later on.

So 60% of the current subs, plus those not currently subscribed coming in (back) specifically for Classic. 1M+ launchweek does not sound that impossible then, don't you agree?

[Qnubi]

FIVE million! Or maybe 1. Or 10.000.

Actually, it is at least 3, because 3 of my friends will sub on monday/tuesday. :P

Also, to make sure, I am not talking about the overall population, I am speaking of the "unknown" number, people that are not subscribed but will so once Classic launches. The current estimates Blizzard has are the character creations, the number I am speaking about can't be estimated really, only guessed. And that's where you come in.

[Dacien]

A lot of people dead set on their realm are going to be a lot more flexible when staring down the barrel of an 8 hour queue, and flip to another realm is my guess. The realms will spread out on launch I'm guessing.

[Kumorii]

So 60% of the current subs, plus those not currently subscribed coming in (back) specifically for Classic. 1M+ launchweek does not sound that impossible then, don't you agree?

depends who you ask. Some say retail have <1M subscribers... *shrug*.
Maybe I was a bit generous with the 60%, I included those who just log on and then, "meh", and log off...

[Big Thanks]

That argument works only if you look at the subscription as a preorder, which it is not. For many players that play retail it is completely free and they might've just reserved a name with an intention to use it down the line, not play straight away.

Completely true the number might be a bit inflated by CURRENT WoW subscribers.
I dont think the entire current subscription playerbase wasted their time on name reservation though.

But yeah this might be the case, completely possible.