What if Classic players surpasses s BfA live player base?

[unbound]

Serious question, will Classic subs surpass current BfA subs or active player base?

And if so, and it's not just a month then they all leave Classic, but if they stay and keep a strong player base, even more players than BfA, what does Blizzard do? Does that change plans for the future of WoW?

I think Blizzard thought Classic would be a fun side project, something of a thank you to fans, but then expecting it to fade off after a month or two after release, and then just have a small niche player base. But what if Classic is a huge successes and pulls in players in numbers we haven't see in years, and destroys the amount of players in Bfa? Does Blizzard reevaluate what they plan to do in the future for the MMO?

First, to get a nitpick out of the way, there is no such thing as "Classic subs" vs "BFA subs". There is a single WoW sub model. So what we are really talking about is "What if the number of active Classic players stays above active BfA players after a couple of months?"

I would say that it would be too late for Blizz to alter their current path for the next expansion. That work is already well under way (or a very slight possibility that it is already abandoned in the shakeups of the past year) and its direction is already fixed. They are not in a position to significantly alter what they are going to do as that expansion absolutely has to launch in a year (BfA subs have almost certainly plummeted well below even worst-case internal projections; any further delays in the next expansion would be too financially devastating).

What it would likely do, however, is ensure that they talk about a BC launch in 2021 (perhaps early 2021 at that). The true test will be where things stand after a couple months post next expansion launch. If that doesn't bring numbers *well* above Classic, then something more drastic will likely happen. At that point, I would guess that they will talk about Classic+ series or some such. Maybe keep BC and Wrath servers active, and provide additional content for both (for the likely majority that don't remember, Blizz *used* to be crystal clear that your sub fee paid for constant content updates and used this rationale to defend the sub fee many years ago when it became apparent that the sub approach was dying).

For my part, (and I say this as someone who like Classic far more than Retail) I don't expect this to actually happen. I find it more likely that Classic will only be above Retail for a couple of months, and I expect it to settle down more closely to a near 50/50 activity level. I don't say this because I think everyone will or even should love Classic more, but because BfA is truly that bad. This will cause its own set of problems for Blizz however. It will likely force their hand into providing BC servers (mostly for the love of money).

Around that time (perhaps as soon as only 6 months from now), I expect Classic to experience a major blow as Blizz introduces the Shop in general, and tokens specifically, directly into Classic. Top executives at Blizz simply won't be able to resist the urge to expand income from Classic by pushing micro-transactions hard. That will likely take the wind out of Classic more than anything else.

[Doomchicken]

Only thing that gives BFA an edge over WoD is m+. WOD was horrible, but that should say something about BFA.

That you're full of shit? Like, anyone that thinks BFA's content is worse than literally sitting around doing nothing in a garrison clearly is full of shit. Like...don't get me wrong, I'm not BFA's biggest fan, but people can fuck off with that level of idiocy.

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I would say that it would be too late for Blizz to alter their current path for the next expansion.

Not only would it be too late for them to alter their current path, it would also be MONUMENTALLY stupid for them to alter anything based off 2 days of classic. Like seriously. Not only that, but they have caved into the whiners in the past to make things harder (cata) and have leveling take longer (earlier this expansion) due to the demands of the vocal minority and received such massive backlash that they had no choice but to do a full 180. The most foolish thing they could do, is to repeat the same mistake over and over again.

[Qnubi]

Well as retail right now has a ton of "high" and "medium" populated servers even with the classic hype the chances that BFA will become a ghost town is literally zero percent. The hype is done by a ton of the most popular streamers, most people are surely not even playing classic and/or just for a few days. Certainly the realm population on retail has not changed much at all.

It can't change because the algorithm is set up to compare realm to realm, not total capacity. So if The fullest servers only has 1k players it would still show as full. The blues made a post about that regarding classic "medium" servers having a queue. You can bet Classic has more players than BFA currently. The queues are gigantic.

Source: "How it worked before this hotfix
As we explained here, the system previously calculated the population labels by comparing all realms to the most-populated realm. This could result in a very crowded realm (with a lengthy queue) showing up as “Medium”, since it was being compared to the realm that had the highest population and a potentially massive queue."

Note: This only applies to Classic servers, retail still uses this method with realm vs. realm comparison. Classic is the "real" full/high/medium.

[roboscorcher]

That would be an ace move. With how much people are already flaming each other, imagine Classic gets new content and how apeshit retail players will go.

Not even saying them raging would be justified...after all we all pay our 15$ to access the game...yet one version gets patches and it is taken for granted, but I swear if Classic gets added content in a patch beyond Naxx....I swear we will have a forum in flames (once more)

Maybe. But would the rage be justified? I'm pretty sure they already have 2 separate teams for each version of the game. I'm sure there are team members that have no interest in working on the other version of WoW, so it only makes sense that both teams continue making content. The only downside to new Classic content would be the deviation from the past, which is why I expect them to instead work on reviving all the past expansions.

[Nnyco]

You cannot be seriously comparing classic with Warlods of Draenor..

I dont remember the hype and populairity of the launch of Warlords really, but I dont think it was nearly as big as it is with classic right now.. Maybe weird reference but 1.2 million views on Twitch at classic launch? Was that nearly the case with warlords?

Im suprised you dont remember the hype for WoD considerin the sub-numbers picture gets thrown around non-stop.

[Apexis]

Serious question, will Classic subs surpass current BfA subs or active player base?

And if so, and it's not just a month then they all leave Classic, but if they stay and keep a strong player base, even more, players than BfA, what does Blizzard do? Does that change plans for the future of WoW?

I think Blizzard thought Classic would be a fun side project, something of a thank you to fans, but then expecting it to fade off after a month or two after release, and then just have a small niche player base. But what if Classic is a huge success and pulls in players in numbers we haven't see in years, and destroys the number of players in Bfa? Does Blizzard reevaluate what they plan to do in the future for the MMO?

From what I have seen so far in retail, at least on Area 52. Does not look like Classic has made much of a dent. More people are saying we done this and have no interest in going backward, especially to Vanilla. Even Blizzard is expecting a huge drop off in the coming weeks and months as people, from people who did not playback then give it a try then figure it out is not for them or it was not what they thought it might be. I think, in less than 3 months we will see just how many people are still playing Classic, even more so when people finally clear Naxx.

So I do not think even Blizzards is concerned at all that Classic will surpass retail WoW. If anything, the reverse might happen in more people moving to retail to play the game.

[cparle87]

Runescape have both versions co-exist without problems, why would you think it changes here something? And we will never know which version will have more players since blizzard simply will not tell us. All we will have in the upcoming months is the typical classic vs retail bullshit on every forum and that's it for the coming years. Although the chances that classic will have more players after the inital hype is extremely low.

Are either B2P? Do you have to pay a sub for one? Does paying for one get you access to the other? These questions need to be answered before we can determine if these are equivalent situations.

[cface]

That you're full of shit? Like, anyone that thinks BFA's content is worse than literally sitting around doing nothing in a garrison clearly is full of shit. Like...don't get me wrong, I'm not BFA's biggest fan, but people can fuck off with that level of idiocy.

Now maybe you finally get it, that sitting around doing nothing actually beats BFA's bullshit. Warfront and IE, working on that silly neck, and gear progress is so fucking aids, only Ashran could be on that kind of stupid content level. I'd rather just log in for some raids and some pvp, then the shit we have now where I feel behind if I don't do this shit. Itemization wasn't even close to the bs we have now, it felt better to get gear back then atleast

[Black Goat]

Yeah that's expected I guess. But what if, 3 months in Classic is still rocking and BfA is a ghost town? Does Blizzard make some design decisions for the next expansion.

Not sure why you're adamant on this "But what if..." scenario. Classic is niche. It's not going to surpass BFA, even as bad as it is. There won't be design decisions to make, and speculating on them is rather futile. Are you just wanting someone to say, "Yes, they will make design decisions."?

[Kantoro]

Well as retail right now has a ton of "high" and "medium" populated servers even with the classic hype the chances that BFA will become a ghost town is literally zero percent. The hype is done by a ton of the most popular streamers, most people are surely not even playing classic and/or just for a few days. Certainly the realm population on retail has not changed much at all.

6 PM every server was "full" I saw queues as high as 15k. It took me 11 hours to log on to the server that my friends decided on earlier in the day.

[Nokami]

6 PM every server was "full" I saw queues as high as 15k. It took me 11 hours to log on to the server that my friends decided on earlier in the day.

Well, we have 2 Servers with higher queues (one pvp and one pve) and that's it, there are servers at medium and low. I mean if you want to play on the streamer servers it's your own fault i guess. But there are servers without queue.

[Kantoro]

Well, we have 2 Servers with higher queues (one pvp and one pve) and that's it, there are servers at medium and low. I mean if you want to play on the streamer servers it's your own fault i guess. But there are servers without queue.

No, you didn't read what I wrote. EVERY server was full.

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[bloodykiller86]

blizz don't want classic to success, as already shown blizz 'publicity' for classic is near none, they make commercials to wow since wrath yet they decided not to do this time
blizz is in deep sh8t, classic already surpassed most ppl expectation, which prove that their direction in current retail wow is total sh8t, and their entire board should just get fired
what will happen is either 1 of 2 scenarios
a- they swallow their shattered pride, accept fact that ppl prefer classic system, revert to it and make next exp similar to it or
b- they get even more stubborn, ruin wow even more effectively killing wow forever with next exp max

blizz ignore any feedback they don't like, the easiest example is artifact grind in Legion since i followed it closely, literally no one said it was ok, it was too much, some even claimed it will be worst grind in entire wow history, guess what? it is the WORST in entire wow history, even more than Timbermaw the ex-holder of most grind, and unlike Timbermaw it is must for everyone (also Timbermaw was also needed, but just to friendly)
as for cash shop u can literally buy boosts with real life cash, there are ppl who spend money to get a good gear, ppl think since u can get gear in other ways (and even better) by playing it make wow less p2w, it doesn't, p2w means u give ppl option to get good gear by just spend real life cash
Totalbiscuit was right since day 1, a sub-based game should never get a cash shop, we already pay for their money, instead of using the sub money to create mounts for cash shop they should spend it on in-game items


i disgaree that classic isn't good, wow had better exp i agree but that doesn't make classic worse
classic is still better than WoD or BFA at least, ironic since BFA has many beautiful thing but they f8cked classes so hard that it made everything else blend

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wod downfall wasn't bad start, it was 'only start'
in fact if u count just launch alone, WoD was great, higher than MoP, the problem was follow up 'patches' that were total sh8t
so it is a good judge, classic everyone know what will happen, wod on other hand no one knew, and i'm pretty sure if most wow players knew how wod would be, no one would played at launch

you are jumping to conclusions lol Classic has had a massive hype train building up for a year now. its gone into overdrive and many people returned but guess what....this is nothing new give it a month or two and a massive drop off will happen. BFA first day sold the most they ever have on a launch, 3.3 million copies of BFA so you know they sold way more than that in its entirety and yet no server issues at all due to sharding and shit. Classic will crash hard just give it time lol Also i quite enjoyed the artifact system in Legion, i didnt mind it one bit lol they made some mistakes though by allowing infinite mythic farm so glad they fixed that

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6 PM every server was "full" I saw queues as high as 15k. It took me 11 hours to log on to the server that my friends decided on earlier in the day.

less to do with the servers and more to do with the fact that they didnt allocate enough logon servers for people

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Not sure why you're adamant on this "But what if..." scenario. Classic is niche. It's not going to surpass BFA, even as bad as it is. There won't be design decisions to make, and speculating on them is rather futile. Are you just wanting someone to say, "Yes, they will make design decisions."?

thats what the classic people want though. they want to basically kill the main game and tell blizz to throw away years of game development and lore out the window

[Black Goat]

thats what the classic people want though. they want to basically kill the main game and tell blizz to throw away years of game development and lore out the window

People have a tough time when they don't get what they want. I'm glad Blizzard is remaining tough on these issues. Even I would probably enjoy a tmog system in Classic, but in reality, it's better without it.

[bloodykiller86]

Wishful thinking? BFA is a bad and unpopular game that has terrible reviews everywhere. Classic is one of the most popular and well received games ever made.

Maybe MMOs are a thing of the past, but if there is gonna be one king Blizzard MMO, its gonna be Classic.

wishful thinking on your part. you forget that theres nothing new to see in classic. I and many others dont care for it. we lived it, we know how it was and we're done with it. MMOs should never go backwards, they should never re-release an older version of the game, its just stupid. They should realize their mistakes, which its clear they have by interviews and feedback they have given, and they will adjust. If wow just stayed how classic was for all these years no one would be playing anymore and i hope to whatever fucking universal being if any exist is out there that they never add content to classic and only re-release BC and WoTLK and end it there because if not they're going to be competing with themselves and they dont want that

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People have a tough time when they don't get what they want. I'm glad Blizzard is remaining tough on these issues. Even I would probably enjoy a tmog system in Classic, but in reality, it's better without it.

i want there to never be anything new in classic. i never wanted it to come out in the first place and was actually pissed when they announced it. I was pissed that they caved to private server f*** we used to all band together to bash on. But i get it from a business point of view. They can't kill all private servers. Its a bitch to stop them so this way they kill 2 birds with one stone and make some money off of them. BFA has its issues, mainly system issues and things blizz is under-utilizing and over-utilizing but overall with 8.2 its much better than it was. I expect a big splash like Legion with 9.0 honestly

[sam86]

Also i quite enjoyed the artifact system in Legion, i didnt mind it one bit lol they made some mistakes though by allowing infinite mythic farm so glad they fixed that

if u think i hated legion u are wrong, i played legion a lot that i'm not sure if it was more than TBC or not, but that still doesn't deny the fact that blizz ignored all feedback, they insisted that once game goes live and class hall research upgrade will make it easier
but it didn't, and it still became worst grind ever in wow history
it just shows that blizz refuse to listen to feedback, they do whatever sh8t they want, and if ppl complain they go shout that someone from mars said they wanted that, blaming players that they clearly don't listen to on their own faults
The AP needed to max artifact was insane, no one even claim otherwise, just the more casual ppl (and i was casual) were annoyed but didn't try to max farm it, ppl who needed to do mythic raiding had to farm it, and it was the WORST farm ever

[Kyphael]

The only reason Classic exists is because of Retail. Classic is finite. It won't get expansions. Retail is 15 years' worth of Classic refinement.

[Relapses]

First, to get a nitpick out of the way, there is no such thing as "Classic subs" vs "BFA subs". There is a single WoW sub model. So what we are really talking about is "What if the number of active Classic players stays above active BfA players after a couple of months?"

I would say that it would be too late for Blizz to alter their current path for the next expansion. That work is already well under way (or a very slight possibility that it is already abandoned in the shakeups of the past year) and its direction is already fixed. They are not in a position to significantly alter what they are going to do as that expansion absolutely has to launch in a year (BfA subs have almost certainly plummeted well below even worst-case internal projections; any further delays in the next expansion would be too financially devastating).

What it would likely do, however, is ensure that they talk about a BC launch in 2021 (perhaps early 2021 at that). The true test will be where things stand after a couple months post next expansion launch. If that doesn't bring numbers *well* above Classic, then something more drastic will likely happen. At that point, I would guess that they will talk about Classic+ series or some such. Maybe keep BC and Wrath servers active, and provide additional content for both (for the likely majority that don't remember, Blizz *used* to be crystal clear that your sub fee paid for constant content updates and used this rationale to defend the sub fee many years ago when it became apparent that the sub approach was dying).

For my part, (and I say this as someone who like Classic far more than Retail) I don't expect this to actually happen. I find it more likely that Classic will only be above Retail for a couple of months, and I expect it to settle down more closely to a near 50/50 activity level. I don't say this because I think everyone will or even should love Classic more, but because BfA is truly that bad. This will cause its own set of problems for Blizz however. It will likely force their hand into providing BC servers (mostly for the love of money).

Around that time (perhaps as soon as only 6 months from now), I expect Classic to experience a major blow as Blizz introduces the Shop in general, and tokens specifically, directly into Classic. Top executives at Blizz simply won't be able to resist the urge to expand income from Classic by pushing micro-transactions hard. That will likely take the wind out of Classic more than anything else.

While I agree with you for the most part, at what point did it become clear the sub model was "dying"?

[kail]

I agree with you and the numbers are still very impressive, but the game has just been released. And it's 7 AM in America only. It's past noon in Europe.

It did peak at one million viewers from a chart I've seen. Has that ever happened before in WoW expanison releases?

[Dekkers]

It already has.
BFA is RIP in peace.