[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[Pann]

I doubt there will be Berlin wall style border erected overnight. It will be a bit more simple than that. EU companies and shops will not be allowed to sell food and goods manufactured after Halloween because they are not certified. There will be another layer of VAT applied to it so prices won't be competitive anymore.
For services the extra VAT will apply and UK companies aren't likely be picked as much anymore. Travelling will be more difficult for service providers which won't help.
God knows what will happen to financial services from the UK.
For car parts, airplane parts and specialized things what matters are certifications, and quality acceptance by the receiving company. French customs in Toulouse might
bitch about A400M wings import paperwork missing but I doubt Airbus will find them unsatisfactory overnight.

This will not happen. It is all well and good saying that the EU has planned for all this but it is a massive undertaking and it will take months to get the message out to businesses and for them to implement all of it.

If no-deal happens (and I not convinced it will) then politicians in both the EU and UK will spend several months scratching their heads trying to work out what to do next during that time not much will happen.

I thought that the EU had agreed to continue to recognise aviation standards for a year (not sure to the exact period) in the event of no-deal, is this not the case?

[Skroe]

So how likely is it that Ireland reunites and Scotland gains independence?

This is crazy.

I was whole heartedly against the Scottish Referendum when it occurred. I thought that the UK being dismembered would be a disaster for the US interests in Europe. I also thought dissolving a political relationship that goes back 300 years would be a historic mistake.

But watching Parliament on Youtube, and watching the conduct of three Tory British PMs in that time... the SNP are just about the only serious people in that room. Certainly nobody should count on Red Jeremy's General Election fanaticism to deliver the United Kingdom from Tory and Brexiter idiocy.

So to hell with it I say. If a segment of the British population wants to retire to be irrelevant Little England, keeping its head down so no trouble comes to it, then let them. In history, this is not unprecedented. Just before the end, Constantinople was pretty much all that was left of the Roman Empire. It's somewhat fitting that two decades out from the end of Empire, the first frontiers of British expansionism dissolve their political bonds as well.

The Scottish should get another vote and the Scottish should leave. And one day Northern Ireland too. And we can then see "the United Kingdom" replaced with "England", and it will go back to being what it was to Europe for much of history before the 1500s: a somewhat obscure backwater.

[Demolitia]

I mean, borders aren't like that anyway. It's not even about fencing the border. What will be required and what is entirely possible to have up and running very fast is custom stations. And from what I've read in Irish and UK papers, custom stations will be targets.

No, of course not, but there were discussions to have such checks in the irish sea, and it was refused because NI would be treated differently than the rest of the UK.
The border won't be fenced but there needs to be an agreement as to were the border checks will be effectively carried out. Without an agreement, the physical border is were checks will be. Maybe not today as we still get along and there is good will on both sides, but maybe in 10 years things will be different and one side will feel the need to lay some bricks down. The backstop is not there for next month. It's there to ensure there will never be a border until both sides agree to a permanent solution that removes the need for a border.

[Jessicka]

Perhaps this would be better directed at the politicians who are trying to use the Irish border to forward their respective agendas?



How do you think either the RoI or the UK will implement a hard border? Is it suddenly going to spring up at midnight? Whatever is decided will take time to implement.

Why is the UK leaving the EU going to promote people smuggling? Especially as both the UK and RoI are committed to preserving the CTA. There are already issues with cross border smuggling and I am not sure how a hard border would stop them.

Ireland is not in the Schengen. Seriously if you don't know the basics, like what the republicans and unionists stand for or that Ireland is not in Schengen, it is really difficult to talk to you.

It's not difficult to erect barbed wire and watchposts, there are almost certainly existing military plans and equipment ready to do it. And it would be a military exercise.

With WTO rules on trade, it wouldn't just be people smuggling that would be the problem. Sure, we could unilaterally apply zero-duty tariffs on goods crossing into the UK, but Ireland, or rather, the EU, would not reciprocate. Especially not with the pound worth fuck all which would destroy the border economy on the Irish side.

But, going back to wanting control over immigration, we'd need active checks on people crossing the border. You cannot have an automated system do that. It would simply become an easy crossover point to get to the UK.

Okay, I'm wrong on Schengen.

I do understand what the Unionists and Republicans stand for. It's a tiny extreme group of Unionists who want a hard border. Sure, Unionists want to remain in the UK, but polling suggests, given the choice between remaining in the EU with an open border, or staying in the UK with a closed border... things get a whole lot sketchier for the Unionists, it's a no brainer for Republicans. The trajectory in the population is towards unification with Ireland, even if a majority doesn't yet exist.

It's also worth noting that jeopardising the GFA would not go down in the USA, and Congress has said it would not ratify a trade deal with the UK in those conditions.

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This will not happen. It is all well and good saying that the EU has planned for all this but it is a massive undertaking and it will take months to get the message out to businesses and for them to implement all of it.

If no-deal happens (and I not convinced it will) then politicians in both the EU and UK will spend several months scratching their heads trying to work out what to do next during that time not much will happen.

I thought that the EU had agreed to continue to recognise aviation standards for a year (not sure to the exact period) in the event of no-deal, is this not the case?

The EU had all this ready for the last deadline. It's still ready.

[Pann]

Before you join the AEO family

Maybe I'm missing your point but AEO is an internationally recognised status and there are many companies that already meet the criteria and have been granted AEO status. What other standards would they need to apply?

[Jessicka]

Maybe I'm missing your point but AEO is an internationally recognised status and there are many companies that already meet the criteria and have been granted AEO status. What other standards would they need to apply?

Quality of goods, worker rights, environmental requirements. The usual shit that ensures you're not doing anything shady that allows you to undercut operators inside the EU.

The whole point of Brexit is to diverge on these things to get trade deals with more lax countries like the US.

[Demolitia]

This will not happen. It is all well and good saying that the EU has planned for all this but it is a massive undertaking and it will take months to get the message out to businesses and for them to implement all of it.

If no-deal happens (and I not convinced it will) then politicians in both the EU and UK will spend several months scratching their heads trying to work out what to do next during that time not much will happen.

I thought that the EU had agreed to continue to recognise aviation standards for a year (not sure to the exact period) in the event of no-deal, is this not the case?

VAT will be automatically applied overnight I'm afraid. That's the most straightforward thing that will happen post Brexit when you are considered a third country. Everything you sell to us will be 9 to 20% more expensive. Tax offices in all countries are notoriously greedy fuckers and they will have no mercy. As Slant said that bit is not about political goodwill, it's just public servants applying rules.
I'm pretty sure even Amazon is ready to turn on the button so that when I order stuff on Amazon.co.uk it will calculate import tax the way it does when I order from Amazon US.

There were discussion for aviation standards, and banking/securities/insurance standards but I don't know if this was tied to the withdrawal agreement or not. It's not in the agreement but I don't know if anything is final with regards to those. The Council has representatives in EASA's board and could easily ensure aviation standards are not recognized anymore. Especially if BoJo decides to withhold the 30 something billions (which is not relevant anymore as it was the bill as at 6 months ago).

[Pann]

It's not difficult to erect barbed wire and watchposts, there are almost certainly existing military plans and equipment ready to do it. And it would be a military exercise.

With WTO rules on trade, it wouldn't just be people smuggling that would be the problem. Sure, we could unilaterally apply zero-duty tariffs on goods crossing into the UK, but Ireland, or rather, the EU, would not reciprocate. Especially not with the pound worth fuck all which would destroy the border economy on the Irish side.

But, going back to wanting control over immigration, we'd need active checks on people crossing the border. You cannot have an automated system do that. It would simply become an easy crossover point to get to the UK.

Okay, I'm wrong on Schengen.

I do understand what the Unionists and Republicans stand for. It's a tiny extreme group of Unionists who want a hard border. Sure, Unionists want to remain in the UK, but polling suggests, given the choice between remaining in the EU with an open border, or staying in the UK with a closed border... things get a whole lot sketchier for the Unionists, it's a no brainer for Republicans. The trajectory in the population is towards unification with Ireland, even if a majority doesn't yet exist.

It's also worth noting that jeopardising the GFA would not go down in the USA, and Congress has said it would not ratify a trade deal with the UK in those conditions.

So now we've gone from checking whether chickens have been chlorinated to we need the army! Ridiculous!

Tariffs do not need to enforced at the border.

Why? Someone crossing the Irish border unless they have the legal right to reside in the UK would not be able to get a job in NI or rent a property. Nor would they be able to cross to mainland.

The EU had all this ready for the last deadline. It's still ready.

Passing laws is the easy part and devising systems. Implementing them and getting thousands of businesses ready and able to follow them is another thing altogether.

[Demolitia]

Maybe I'm missing your point but AEO is an internationally recognised status and there are many companies that already meet the criteria and have been granted AEO status. What other standards would they need to apply?

I was under the impression that you had to apply to get the criteria recognized. Right not they do as EU companies, I'm not sure whether they would keep their status or would need to get their criteria re-validated after leaving the EU.
edit: it's the first time I hear about this AEO thing so I don't know, but I'm not certain you become a member automatically if you adopt EU standards by analogy at a certain point in time. I thing you need to commit to minimum standards and it's up to review by other members. I could obviously be wrong.

[Pann]

Quality of goods, worker rights, environmental requirements. The usual shit that ensures you're not doing anything shady that allows you to undercut operators inside the EU.

The whole point of Brexit is to diverge on these things to get trade deals with more lax countries like the US.

Oh, FFS. Please stop. AEO status has nothing to do with, well, anything you've mentioned.

[Pann]

I was under the impression that you had to apply to get the criteria recognized. Right not they do as EU companies, I'm not sure whether they would keep their status or would need to get their criteria re-validated after leaving the EU.

Yes, you do. I might be wrong but as it is internationally recognised it is unlikely that much would change post Brexit.

[Jessicka]

So now we've gone from checking whether chickens have been chlorinated to we need the army! Ridiculous!

Tariffs do not need to enforced at the border.

Why? Someone crossing the Irish border unless they have the legal right to reside in the UK would not be able to get a job in NI or rent a property. Nor would they be able to cross to mainland.

Where else are the equipment and engineers going to come from? I guess we could have private contractors set it up, and Border Force agents posted along the way. But it seems more likely that it would be the Army, given things are already escalating violently over there.

Tariffs might not need to be enforced at the border, but it's easier there, and frankly immigration does need to be enforced there.

Passing laws is the easy part and devising systems. Implementing them and getting thousands of businesses ready and able to follow them is another thing altogether.

Something the EU are far ahead of the UK at dealing with, although the UK does have plans and systems, and businesses have been given help on how to get ready.

[Cantworth]

The Eu is not one country, it's 27. One or two of which have larger economies than yours. Half of your exports go to us. If you want to be a dick we can make buying anything from you extremely expensive and difficult and your economy will collapse?

I didn't vote for this shit, but I don't care what you think. You trade with us because it is your financial interest to do so, not out of the goodness of your little hearts.

And I'm not being a dick here, Nymrohd is. He stated he didn't care what happened in Northern Ireland and was solely interested in how this affects his own economy. That's essentially putting his own petty financial self-interest over what is a serious possibility of thousands of people being murdered. So he can fuck off and so can you, there's a limit to the amount of greed and self-interest even the most tolerant Brit can put up with from you people.

[Pann]

VAT will be automatically applied overnight I'm afraid. That's the most straightforward thing that will happen post Brexit when you are considered a third country. Everything you sell to us will be 9 to 20% more expensive. Tax offices in all countries are notoriously greedy fuckers and they will have no mercy. As Slant said that bit is not about political goodwill, it's just public servants applying rules.
I'm pretty sure even Amazon is ready to turn on the button so that when I order stuff on Amazon.co.uk it will calculate import tax the way it does when I order from Amazon US.

There were discussion for aviation standards, and banking/securities/insurance standards but I don't know if this was tied to the withdrawal agreement or not. It's not in the agreement but I don't know if anything is final with regards to those. The Council has representatives in EASA's board and could easily ensure aviation standards are not recognized anymore. Especially if BoJo decides to withhold the 30 something billions (which is not relevant anymore as it was the bill as at 6 months ago).

Changing VAT at the tax office is easy. Making sure businesses are aware of the new rates and charging the correct rate is another thing altogether. No-deal is going to result in a lot of confusion and businesses will not always get it right. But let's be honest VAT is just the tip of the iceberg and whilst the likes of Amazon will have no problem adapting, with their massive legal and accounting departments, smaller businesses will not be able to adapt straight away.

I'm sure that it agreed that aviation standard would be recognised for a year but I might be wrong. The EASA could do this but it is not exactly in the EU's interests.

[Noradin]

I'm not going to argue semantics with you [...]t.[/I]

Really? That's a first.

[Pann]

Where else are the equipment and engineers going to come from? I guess we could have private contractors set it up, and Border Force agents posted along the way. But it seems more likely that it would be the Army, given things are already escalating violently over there.

Tariffs might not need to be enforced at the border, but it's easier there, and frankly immigration does need to be enforced there.


Something the EU are far ahead of the UK at dealing with, although the UK does have plans and systems, and businesses have been given help on how to get ready.

What are you on about?

Neither have to enforced at the border. Just how does asking someone a few questions at Heathrow stop someone from becoming an illegal immigrant?

Maybe they are, given our government's shambolic handling of Brexit ?I would be disappointed if they weren't, but this does not change the fact that businesses, in both the EU and UK, do not know what is going to happen on Nov 1st and as such most of them cannot immediately implement new systems.

[Jessicka]

What are you on about?

Neither have to enforced at the border. Just how does asking someone a few questions at Heathrow stop someone from becoming an illegal immigrant?

Maybe they are, given our government's shambolic handling of Brexit ?I would be disappointed if they weren't, but this does not change the fact that businesses, in both the EU and UK, do not know what is going to happen on Nov 1st and as such most of them cannot immediately implement new systems.

Never been through a non-EU immigration gate have you?

It takes long enough with enough checks to get into the USA even with an ESTA. We would have no such agreement with the EU. It would still be visa free I guess, but there'd still be declarations and shit.

And you're right, we don't know what happens November 1st. No one does. That does not however mean we carry on as normal, when wholly different WTO trade rules apply, with new taxes, tariffs and duties on goods cross the border.

Again, we could unilaterally decide not to apply such tariffs (or any kind of border checks) - but no one else has to reciprocate.

[Demolitia]

Passing laws is the easy part and devising systems. Implementing them and getting thousands of businesses ready and able to follow them is another thing altogether.

I think the main problem if the UK crashes out with no deal, is that EU companies won't be sure how to deal with UK suppliers. Tariffs and taxes are straightforward, but many other uncertainties (can my consultant make it on time? Will my salads rot at the border? Will my container of windshields make it through the border on time) might make EU businesses look for suppliers elsewhere instead of taking risks.

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I didn't vote for this shit, but I don't care what you think. You trade with us because it is your financial interest to do so, not out of the goodness of your little hearts.

And I'm not being a dick here, Nymrohd is. He stated he didn't care what happened in Northern Ireland and was solely interested in how this affects his own economy. That's essentially putting his own petty financial self-interest over what is a serious possibility of thousands of people being murdered. So he can fuck off and so can you, there's a limit to the amount of greed and self-interest even the most tolerant Brit can put up with from you people.

We trade with you because you offer good services at a competitive price, with shared standards, with the understanding we can go to the ECJ if we disagree. You (or your country) seems to want to reject all of that, so yeah, I guess it won't be in our financial, or legal, interest to do so that much anymore.
I'm not sure where but the personal attack comes from but ok. fuck you too I guess.

[Pann]

In the last four years we've changed VAT rates and rules three times in Greece, the last time within a single working day

But doesn't Greece have a really casual outlook when it comes to paying tax in general?

On a serious note it is a lot easier to say that the VAT rate is changing from, say, 15% to 20% across one country (assuming this what happened) than it is to say that this product which did not attract VAT now attracts this rate of VAT if it is going to a EU country from the UK or vice versa.

But as I said I think VAT will be one of the smaller issues although I think many businesses will be hit with unexpected bills simply because they were unsure what rate to charge.

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I think the main problem if the UK crashes out with no deal, is that EU companies won't be sure how to deal with UK suppliers. Tariffs and taxes are straightforward, but many other uncertainties (can my consultant make it on time? Will my salads rot at the border? Will my container of windshields make it through the border on time) might make EU businesses look for suppliers elsewhere instead of taking risks.

I don't disagree with any of that.

[Cantworth]

We trade with you because you offer good services at a competitive price, with shared standards, with the understanding we can go to the ECJ if we disagree. You (or your country) seems to want to reject all of that, so yeah, I guess it won't be in our financial, or legal, interest to do so that much anymore.
I'm not sure where but the personal attack comes from but ok. fuck you too I guess.

This is fairly typical of the eurotrash input into this thread. You blunder into it without understanding the broader context or history in this clueless fashion, as in this case not even understanding the context of the thread, and then you are surprised when people tell you to fuck off. We do not lecture you how to run your lives don't pontificate to us.