After playing the game, do you agree with Blizzard's expected "steep drop-off"?

[Brewhan]

Yeah at least for me I'm done I just am too old now (27 yr old) and can't commit that same amount of time anymore. Even with optimal leveling guides and using proper addons I just CBA at this point. I got to like level 25 but I always feel guilty playing more than 2hrs because I got other stuff I need to do in RL first and this game requires way more than 2hrs a day to get any sense of progression. I guess back in vanilla-wotlk when I played I didn't realize how hard I no lifed the game looking back now lol since I was 60 in vanilla and one of the first 70s in BC also in a realm first raiding guild back then. I'll just watch people on twitch and check in briefly but my times done. Also screw playing BFA again so on the 26th when my sub runs out I'll probably just play borderlands 3 then wait for Halo PC.

[Kokolums]

A LOT of people do NOT understand human nature. Blizzard themselves had no idea what they had when they designed WoW. Also, the idea that the younger generation has an attention span that is somehow too short for "modern games" is a tired saw that I've been hearing since I was kid in the 1970s. Its wrong and its always wrong.

[PrairieChicken]

I have seen games that fell from bazillion queues and server crashes to a ghostland in a matter of few months, so Classic will see a significant drop in months to come.

Retail WoW had difficulties in attracting/maintaining new players because it was "too long/complicated/old/etc" for modern players, Classic will be way way worse and I expect people who started with no nostalgia to fall out quickly.

[-aiko-]

There's not much to 'agree' with, really. It's an inevitability that the hype will wear down and the game will lose players. A 15 year old game is not going to draw in enough players to cause a growth, so it's a matter of how much the numbers decline.

I don't have a clue what's going to happen, but if I had to guess based on what little factors we do have (queue times, forum activity, Twitch viewers, etc) I think 15-20% retention is likely.

I don't consider that a failure at all.

[pewpmeiser]

There's not much to 'agree' with, really. It's an inevitability that the hype will wear down and the game will lose players. A 15 year old game is not going to draw in enough players to cause a growth, so it's a matter of how much the numbers decline.

I don't have a clue what's going to happen, but if I had to guess based on what little factors we do have (queue times, forum activity, Twitch viewers, etc) I think 15-20% retention is likely.

I don't consider that a failure at all.

Blizzard expects a 10% retention rate. I think that's their bar for success, given that it's their expectation and they still went through the trouble to make this a thing.

[Byleth]

You pose an interesting question @Shadoowpunk

I think you'll find the answer is different for everyone, for me personally, I loved Vanilla 15 years ago, but my tastes have changed and I now prefer retail and FFXIV.

For me the ideal MMO is one that has small content updates very frequently. I know that's a big ask, but that's why I play the big two side by side, when one gets boring I switch to the other.

[Mgann-Morzz]

I mean I think people will enjoy the leveling experience and community aspect but once people get to end game the fact it's just the same shit as retail (GRIND REPS, DO DUNGEONS AND RAIDS) but even MORE grindy but still ultimately far easier than M+ and Modern raids but with a bunch of completely nonviable specs will lead to the PVE side yeah basically collapsing.

I can see a strong PVP community remaining though due to how different that was with all the crazy builds.

- - - Updated - - -

Blizzard expects a 10% retention rate. I think that's their bar for success, given that it's their expectation and they still went through the trouble to make this a thing.

That's still probably a few hundred thousand paying mainly for a game they basically just have to do skeleton maintenance on, so yeah that'd be a big success.

[Mermeoth]

I expect huge drop off. Currently too many people are on hype train. WoW classic is niche game and will always have lively and loyal community. Yet many people will realize game is not for them once the hype is gone.

[Eggroll]

My server went from Medium to High last night, seems like it's gaining momentum. A lot of peeps in the lvl 30-40 range, therefore out in the world, not chilling in capitals.

Idk maybe there are a lot more players than we thought who want to chill instead of joining the rat race that is the current iteration of the game.

[MoanaLisa]

My server went from Medium to High last night, seems like it's gaining momentum. A lot of peeps in the lvl 30-40 range, therefore out in the world, not chilling in capitals.

Idk maybe there are a lot more players than we thought who want to chill instead of joining the rat race that is the current iteration of the game.

It's possible. It's also possible that some layers were removed which compresses people together a bit more (depending). Did you have a queue to get in? If so, how many and how long?

[lolpve]

It's just cope from the blizz devs who for years have refused to admit the possibility that older expansions are more popular than their current offerings (despite the clear evidence).

Classic will be very popular a year from now, likely more popular than BFA still, and the whole deal is probably baffling for Activision execs. I would hope it would humble the devs but guys like Ion are so arrogant that I doubt it.

[Naiyano]

My guild has around 170 member. Sunday night at 03:00 am we had 67 members online. My server has no queue and with level 55 I am slightly ahead of the curve I guess. Zones are pretty empty for me right now despite many people online. Friends in the 40s bracket tell me about a lot of people fighting for questmobs all the time. And my server only goes from medium to high in peak times.

Classic is still going strong at the moment. I expect a drop in a few weeks when people hit 60 and realise the only thing you can do after leveling is even more grinding. I like it and it will be the last version of wow I will play. (If they release BC I will play it ofc)

[Fitsu]

Yes, hell I had around ~40 people I knew all ready to play classic and around 80% of them have more or less dropped off already. The charms worn off and it's just kinda boring with nothing really that exciting around the corner either to convince you to push on.

I expect within the next couple of months 80%+ of the people playing classic would have stopped.

[Qnubi]

Yes, especially once the most of them reach 60 if they ever do.

Already see a decline on german servers and my friendlist.

I have see so many peoples online in the first week, people I haven't seen for years. Most of them are already gone again.

Well they will come back after a year or two when the crave for nostalgia hits again. For a game with little development cost that sounds like an easy profit, the hardcore player pay for the servers and the tourists that come back every once in a while generate the profit.

[Jarlathe]

I think we will see a drop off, but not as steep as you all seem to think. What we will see, is the tourist leaving. I predict that we will see about 500K players in six months, which wouldn't be bad numbers for any MMO.

Also, I think Blizzard has the numbers internally to justify how many server were created at launch for long term stability.

[-aiko-]

Also, I think Blizzard has the numbers internally to justify how many server were created at launch for long term stability.

No doubt. They also had the numbers, though, that caused them to state they expect a 10% retention rate. So unless the game had 5,000,000 players I'm not sure we'll see a stable playerbase of 500k. I think the 100-200k range is more likely.

Which is still a success.

[Ardourdan]

Step 1: Look at Battle.net friends list

Step 2: Are your friends still on Classic?

[babyback]

A LOT of people do NOT understand human nature. Blizzard themselves had no idea what they had when they designed WoW. Also, the idea that the younger generation has an attention span that is somehow too short for "modern games" is a tired saw that I've been hearing since I was kid in the 1970s. Its wrong and its always wrong.

Blizzard knew exactly what they did when developing WoW. They wanted to make an mmorpg accessible to a wider audience than Everquest.

[Vampyrr]

In our Disc group for server weve had ppl track queue I will post the results for you.
Queue Start Times
8/27 - 08:56 AM
8/28 - 09:52 AM
8/29 - 12:22 PM
8/30 - 12:45 PM
8/31 - 11:35 AM
9/1 - 11:30 AM
9/2 - 11:21 AM
9/3 - 3:50 PM (Verizon Outage)
9/4 - 4:35 PM
9/5 - 5:21 PM (Transfers Opened)
9/6 - 5:02 PM
9/7 - 2:24PM // 7:48 PM (DDoS)
9/8 - 1:54 PM // 3:58 PM (DDoS)

Queue Peaks
8/27 - 17,400
8/28 - 13,000
8/29 - 10,000
8/30 - 8,800
8/31 - 7,800
9/1 - 8,200
9/2 - 9,400
9/3 - 7,600 (Verizon Outage)
9/4 - 6,600
9/5 - 4,900 (Transfers Opened)
9/6 - 4,700
9/7 - 3,000 (DDoS)
9/8 - 4,900 (DDoS)

With the exception of yesterday and saturday due to ddos skewing things there is an obvious trend.

[toffmcsoft]

The drop off you're experiencing isn't players who are "stopping" playing...
It's everyone that had to finally go back to work after taking the vacation.

Also, just wait until Phase 2 drops.
Entire guilds are focused around just Phase 2.

- - - Updated - - -

In our Disc group for server weve had ppl track queue I will post the results for you.
Queue Start Times
8/27 - 08:56 AM
8/28 - 09:52 AM
8/29 - 12:22 PM
8/30 - 12:45 PM
8/31 - 11:35 AM
9/1 - 11:30 AM
9/2 - 11:21 AM
9/3 - 3:50 PM (Verizon Outage)
9/4 - 4:35 PM
9/5 - 5:21 PM (Transfers Opened)
9/6 - 5:02 PM
9/7 - 2:24PM // 7:48 PM (DDoS)
9/8 - 1:54 PM // 3:58 PM (DDoS)

Queue Peaks
8/27 - 17,400
8/28 - 13,000
8/29 - 10,000
8/30 - 8,800
8/31 - 7,800
9/1 - 8,200
9/2 - 9,400
9/3 - 7,600 (Verizon Outage)
9/4 - 6,600
9/5 - 4,900 (Transfers Opened)
9/6 - 4,700
9/7 - 3,000 (DDoS)
9/8 - 4,900 (DDoS)

With the exception of yesterday and saturday due to ddos skewing things there is an obvious trend.

Server transfers drastically reduced queue times.
Also opening new servers for players to play on.

This data can be taken with a grain of salt.

- - - Updated - - -

I have seen games that fell from bazillion queues and server crashes to a ghostland in a matter of few months, so Classic will see a significant drop in months to come.

Retail WoW had difficulties in attracting/maintaining new players because it was "too long/complicated/old/etc" for modern players, Classic will be way way worse and I expect people who started with no nostalgia to fall out quickly.

Check back in a few months, I assure you the classic train will still be moving.