[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[Slant]

I asked you what remain had done over the last three years to achieve its goal and in reply you failed to list a single thing that remain had done - not one single thing- instead you moaned about and attacked leave voters and you're doing exactly the same thing again!

You can't list one positive thing - can you?

One day, long after we've left the EU, probably without a deal, the realisation will hit you that you were just as much as a problem as the leave voters you continually insult.

You mean apart from making public speeches, speeches in Parliament and generally pointing out the idiocy at every turner when asked and most often when not asked? That people like you keep ignoring the arguments doesn't mean that they don't exist...

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I do have to say that while watching Parliament's closing moments last night on youtube, I was struck by how plainly Bercow put things in his statement about how he would perform his duty (and folks attacking Black Rod for doing her duty were out of line... notable she even turned to look at one during it). That was very brave and historic of him. He didn't have to say a word. He chose to condemn what was about to happen and take a stand while still respecting the responsibilities of his office.

But I also appreciated that after he said that, the ovation he got for the words he said and his commitment to his duty. Everyone in opposition knew he hated doing what his position compelled him to do. I imagine that is one reason he announced his resignation on the same day as well. He wanted to have a free hand to condemn the undemocratic thing that was about to occur that he, by virtue of the responsibilities his office, had to be a participant in.

And I loved how Ian Blackford rose to shake Bercow's hand in appreciation for Bercow doing his duty despite his personal feelings as he walked out of the door. It was overwhelmingly decent of him. It represented the best in liberal democratic tradition. The SNP continues to be among the best people in the room. Scotland needs to be a free and independent state that is part of the EU.

Parliament is going to be far smaller without Bercow.

I share this sentiment, especially about the SNP. It's the one nationalist party in Europe that seems to behave decently and has a strong case and makes it without hyperbole or unreasonable claims. And yes, when he says Scotland's voice is ignored, we just have to watch the Commons to confirm that.

[Flarelaine]

Parliament is going to be far smaller without Bercow.

You may appreciate today's cartoon from The Times.

[Pann]

I want to present a scenario to you all. Boris Johnson arrives at the Council on Oct. 17. There he faces a united front that gives him the original EU deal; a border in the Irish Sea and a separate status for Northern Ireland and in return the full withdrawal of the backstop. What are the chances he brings that back for a vote? And what are the chances that Remainers vote for it?

I think that is the direction we're headed anyway (not sure about the backstop bit though) so I think that there is a good chance that or a variation of it will be what he will present to parliament.

The chances of remainers voting for it? I'd say; absolutely none (although he may well have got his election and a majority by then so it won't matter).

And this is my biggest issue with the remainers in parliament they will stand in the way of anything Brexit but they don't have the guts to stand up directly against it and in the end all they achieve is more uncertainty.

[Jessicka]

I think that is the direction we're headed anyway (not sure about the backstop bit though) so I think that there is a good chance that or a variation of it will be what he will present to parliament.

The chances of remainers voting for it? I'd say; absolutely none (although he may well have got his election and a majority by then so it won't matter).

And this is my biggest issue with the remainers in parliament they will stand in the way of anything Brexit but they don't have the guts to stand up directly against it and in the end all they achieve is more uncertainty.

That deal is a reunify Ireland deal, absolutely nobody would vote for that, except maybe Sinn Fein but they don’t sit. What it does show is how horrendously weak our hand is outside of the EU. That’s the kind of offer that even Protestant Unionist would vote for reunification over.

Maybe these are the kinds of truths that need to be out.

Honestly the only response to such a deal is full nuclear kick Boris out form a new government and revoke. The more likely scenario would asking for an extension and referendum on that deal.

Either way, Boris wouldn’t be PM anymore. Most Tories would not sacrifice the Union, I don’t even think the DUP would be necessary to persuade them of that.

Project fear is only project fear until it’s project reality.

[Elegiac]

It's not a crisis. Parliament wasn't paralysed, it was acting and finding ways through the whole time, and will continue to do so.

All the talk of paralysis and obstruction and shit is exactly the kind of bullshit dictators pull to try to bypass it. We won't allow that to happen.

Watch parliament "find ways through" right into the UK crashing out.

When will you get the message that the actions of the past series of British ministries have completely destroyed any illusions of British government being something to aspire towards, and that the rest of the world is already focused on a future with the assumption that Britain...or should I say, England...is a factor only insofar as its nuisance value? Do you honestly think anyone outside of the British political class still says "Westminster" with any degree of reverence? It's much as the eponymous palace was prior to the last time it burned down; a pretty facade concealing a mess of medieval warrens and so much a firetrap that you're honestly surprised it didn't burn down sooner.

The fact you keep repeating "it's not a crisis" is fairly telling as to there being a portion of the British public who don't seem to grasp the seriousness of the situation. This isn't just an existential threat to relations with the EU, the integrity of the UK itself is being compromised. Are you still going to be crowing about Britain's centuries of political experience as the last of England's colonies (i.e Scotland, NI) peel away and the mother of parliaments is left governing nothing more than half an impoverished island on the edge of the known world?

There has never been a situation like this in British history and continuing to insist that this is just business as usual does nobody any favors. Well, except the people who stand to profit from no deal.

@Skroe back me up here, I'm not good at American exceptionalism and I think I might need to appeal across the pond for help.

[Pann]

That deal is a reunify Ireland deal, absolutely nobody would vote for that, except maybe Sinn Fein but they don’t sit. What it does show is how horrendously weak our hand is outside of the EU. That’s the kind of offer that even Protestant Unionist would vote for reunification over.

Maybe these are the kinds of truths that need to be out.

Honestly the only response to such a deal is full nuclear kick Boris out form a new government and revoke. The more likely scenario would asking for an extension and referendum on that deal.

Either way, Boris wouldn’t be PM anymore. Most Tories would not sacrifice the Union, I don’t even think the DUP would be necessary to persuade them of that.

Project fear is only project fear until it’s project reality.

No, it wouldn't. Don't be ridiculous! It would be politically difficult but it is not without support in NI - https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/n...-38414210.html

It is far easier to make a seamless border in the sea than it is on land but the big question is can it seamless enough for the Unionists and the GFA.

There is widely publicised polling data which directly contradicts your assertion that the Tories would not sacrifice NI for Brexit.

[Slant]

I mean, I am still not convinced that Scotland can split from the UK and not have serious economic trouble. The case can be made but it is not a strong case. One thing that the SNP's electoral position makes clear to me is this though; England needs its own devolved parliament apart from Westminster. A federalized UK where each of the component nations had a similar structure would work far better (and stink far less of colonialism) than what they have now.

Oh, absolutely. It is in no way certain that Scotland will be better off. But at least in their case, they actually have a case about independence. Having the UK harp on about independence seems like an insult when there's Scotland right in the Commons and ignored for the most part.

[Elegiac]

Oh, absolutely. It is in no way certain that Scotland will be better off. But at least in their case, they actually have a case about independence. Having the UK harp on about independence seems like an insult when there's Scotland right in the Commons and ignored for the most part.

Moreover, Scotland hasn't spent the past three and a half years burning every diplomatic bridge. There's every reason for the EU and the US to want an independent Scotland to flourish.

[Kallisto]

Oh, absolutely. It is in no way certain that Scotland will be better off. But at least in their case, they actually have a case about independence. Having the UK harp on about independence seems like an insult when there's Scotland right in the Commons and ignored for the most part.

Problem for Scotland isn't that it is ignored. It's that it's an area of Britain with small population. It should be treated as such no more special than an area of England with similar population numbers. (Scotland, Wales, N.Ireland have similar population combined as London for comparison sake)

[Jessicka]

Watch parliament "find ways through" right into the UK crashing out.

When will you get the message that the actions of the past series of British ministries have completely destroyed any illusions of British government being something to aspire towards, and that the rest of the world is already focused on a future with the assumption that Britain...or should I say, England...is a factor only insofar as its nuisance value? Do you honestly think anyone outside of the British political class still says "Westminster" with any degree of reverence? It's much as the eponymous palace was prior to the last time it burned down; a pretty facade concealing a mess of medieval warrens and so much a firetrap that you're honestly surprised it didn't burn down sooner.

The fact you keep repeating "it's not a crisis" is fairly telling as to there being a portion of the British public who don't seem to grasp the seriousness of the situation. This isn't just an existential threat to relations with the EU, the integrity of the UK itself is being compromised. Are you still going to be crowing about Britain's centuries of political experience as the last of England's colonies (i.e Scotland, NI) peel away and the mother of parliaments is left governing nothing more than half an impoverished island on the edge of the known world?

There has never been a situation like this in British history and continuing to insist that this is just business as usual does nobody any favors. Well, except the people who stand to profit from no deal.

@Skroe back me up here, I'm not good at American exceptionalism and I think I might need to appeal across the pond for help.

The catastrophilia is strong in this one.

No deal won't happen. Not as long as Revoke is an option. There's a very considerable and clear parliamentary majority to stop it.

No, it wouldn't. Don't be ridiculous! It would be politically difficult but it is not without support in NI - https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/n...-38414210.html

It is far easier to make a seamless border in the sea than it is on land but the big question is can it seamless enough for the Unionists and the GFA.

There is widely publicised polling data which directly contradicts your assertion that the Tories would not sacrifice NI for Brexit.

This is a poll of membership, not the Parliamentary party or voting pubic. Worth noting that that membership has seen significant entryism in the past 12 months from members of the far right, ex-UKIP type. They also make up about 150,000 people.

Conservative voters on the other hand are much more important, and generally lean more toward One Nation Conservatism, and I doubt they'd sacrifice NI for a Brexit they don't want that badly.

[caervek]

I mean, I am still not convinced that Scotland can split from the UK and not have serious economic trouble. The case can be made but it is not a strong case

Depends on the case.

I mean, Scotland is better off economically in the UK than it would be outside the UK, even some of the most hardcore proponents of independence have to admit that. However, the spanner that Brexit throws into that works is that if the UK leaves the EU it would then be in Scotland's economic interests to leave the UK and rejoin the EU (as it would then be better off economically than it would have been staying in the UK).

[Pann]

This is a poll of membership, not the Parliamentary party or voting pubic. Worth noting that that membership has seen significant entryism in the past 12 months from members of the far right, ex-UKIP type. They also make up about 150,000 people.

Conservative voters on the other hand are much more important, and generally lean more toward One Nation Conservatism, and I doubt they'd sacrifice NI for a Brexit they don't want that badly.

Yeah, because the Con membership is in no way similar to Con voters.

[Elegiac]

The catastrophilia is strong in this one.

No deal won't happen. Not as long as Revoke is an option. There's a very considerable and clear parliamentary majority to stop it.

Again, I have absolutely zero stake in no deal happening or Britain remaining. So your assurances are pretty worthless since, as people have told you repeatedly, the rest of us have already discounted the UK owing to its conduct over the past few decades, Brexit notwithstanding.

What the past few years in particular have shown us, however, is that most of Britain's MPs are so firmly intent on retaining their offices at all costs that they will only ever move when the costs of inaction start to threaten them personally; in so many words, they will procrastinate and kick the can as far down the road as they can muster, and in so doing ensure that when shit finally hits the fan it does so in the most dramatic and damaging fashion possible.

You talk big game about the UK's political experience, but there are places where situations of this sort have happened before. There's a country in particular who managed to kick a highly divisive can down the road for almost a century before it nearly ripped itself apart trying to grapple with it; and in fact, still hasn't managed to fully settle the dispute in question. I'll let you guess what I'm talking about.

So no; while you might call this business as usual, people are fully capable of recognizing a calcified political class and the costs of assuming that they have things well in hand.

[Jessicka]

Yeah, because the Con membership is in no way similar to Con voters.

Members tend to be further from the centre than voters, that’s true of all parties.

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Again, I have absolutely zero stake in no deal happening or Britain remaining. So your assurances are pretty worthless since, as people have told you repeatedly, the rest of us have already discounted the UK owing to its conduct over the past few decades, Brexit notwithstanding.

What the past few years in particular have shown us, however, is that most of Britain's MPs are so firmly intent on retaining their offices at all costs that they will only ever move when the costs of inaction start to threaten them personally; in so many words, they will procrastinate and kick the can as far down the road as they can muster, and in so doing ensure that when shit finally hits the fan it does so in the most dramatic and damaging fashion possible.

You talk big game about the UK's political experience, but there are places where situations of this sort have happened before. There's a country in particular who managed to kick a highly divisive can down the road for almost a century before it nearly ripped itself apart trying to grapple with it; and in fact, still hasn't managed to fully settle the dispute in question. I'll let you guess what I'm talking about.

So no; while you might call this business as usual, people are fully capable of recognizing a calcified political class and the costs of assuming that they have things well in hand.

You’re obviously unused to our system of exploring all options. There’s still 7 weeks until Brexit Day. That’s an eternity in politics.

There is no reason to rush to nuclear options. You’re panicking while calmer heads are still working.

[Pann]

Members tend to be further from the centre than voters, that’s true of all parties.

This is pointless - your's is a position of faith rather than opinion that is formed from the available and observable evidence.

Given the choice of no-Brexit or Brexit and a border in the Irish Sea, Con Brexit supporters are not going to give up on Brexit. You can believe otherwise if you wish but I am not going to waste anymore time on the matter.

[Jessicka]

This is pointless - your's is a position of faith rather than opinion that is formed from the available and observable evidence.

Given the choice of no-Brexit or Brexit and a border in the Irish Sea, Con Brexit supporters are not going to give up on Brexit. You can believe otherwise if you wish but I am not going to waste anymore time on the matter.

There is still the EU conference in mid October. Nothing is going to change between now and then, and whole Parliament is prorogued, nothing will.

Ultimately it doesn’t matter what the Conservative members want.

The current facts are:
- No deal is not an option. There’s a clear Parliamentary majority to prevent it.
- A deal involving a border in the Irish Sea was already rejected by the Conservatives themselves. It never even got to Parliament.
- A deal involving a backstop was rejected by the Conservatives and Parliament.
- There’s no time for a referendum or GE before Oct 31.
- The EU will be asked for an extension.
- The EU meets with the UK in mid October for further negotiations.

There’s still a lot of things to happen and a long way to go before Brexit day.

There is absolutely no reason to panic. A lot has happened but there are still a lot of things to happen before any nuclear buttons are worth pressing.

[Demolitia]

You’re obviously unused to our system of exploring all options. There’s still 7 weeks until Brexit Day. That’s an eternity in politics.

There is no reason to rush to nuclear options. You’re panicking while calmer heads are still working.

No. We're 6 months past the original deadline, and towards the end of the second extension, and you're no closer to a parliamentary agreement on a solution. Your parliament and your government are not calmly exploring options. That much is clear.

[Gibblewink]

There is still the EU conference in mid October. Nothing is going to change between now and then, and whole Parliament is prorogued, nothing will.

Ultimately it doesn’t matter what the Conservative members want.

The current facts are:
- No deal is not an option. There’s a clear Parliamentary majority to prevent it.
- A deal involving a border in the Irish Sea was already rejected by the Conservatives themselves. It never even got to Parliament.
- A deal involving a backstop was rejected by the Conservatives and Parliament.
- There’s no time for a referendum or GE before Oct 31.
- The EU will be asked for an extension.
- The EU meets with the UK in mid October for further negotiations.

There’s still a lot of things to happen and a long way to go before Brexit day.

There is absolutely no reason to panic. A lot has happened but there are still a lot of things to happen before any nuclear buttons are worth pressing.

Seems the most likely conclusion to this mess is perpetual extension, since there is no sign that the parliament has the will to revoke and they have managed to rule out all other options
Of course there is the chance they could grow a spine if the EU were to deny an extension though I honestly wouldn't bet much on it.

[Thrundi]

There is absolutely no reason to panic.

The UK is costing everyone time, energy and money right now. But sure, that's fine

[Pann]

Seems the most likely conclusion to this mess is perpetual extension, since there is no sign that the parliament has the will to revoke and they have managed to rule out all other options
Of course there is the chance they could grow a spine if the EU were to deny an extension though I honestly wouldn't bet much on it.

Without Bercow it is unlikely that parliament will have such an easy task seizing control from the government in future and it possible that there will be an election which returns a majority for Johnson meaning that parliament will not get another opportunity to request another one.

It is now or never in terms of spine growing.