Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[Elegiac]

I prefer to live in a sovereign nation.

*burps* People in hell want ice water.

Unfortunately it seems like most people prefer the economic prosperity engendered by globalisation rather than...you know. Being like North Korea.

[Elegiac]

Maybe Doc should live in a sovereign nation for a while to see if he actually likes it.

I don't mean to be a killjoy but I just want to point out that the US' relative prosperity during its period of "isolation" was built on the back of colonisation (Manifest Destiny) and imperialism (the Monroe Doctrine).

Sovereignty for me but not for thee.

[Pratt]

Anyone else notice the amount of xenophobic, race baiting, fringe right-wing content in the politics and gen ot forums plummet like the week after the site was sold?

[Elegiac]

Anyone else notice the amount of xenophobic, race baiting, fringe right-wing content in the politics and gen ot forums plummet like the week after the site was sold?

GDPR got rid of a lot of the bad faith posters from "Eastern Europe", too.

[ringpriest]

More on that 6:42 tweet from Reuters:



The specifics aside, Trump is begging for a policy that is used by weak economies. He either doesn't know that, or he does and he's admitting the economy is in trouble. Neither trait is redeeming.

You're giving him too much credit - Trump likely wants interest rates lowered because he personally owes hundreds of millions (if not more) in loans, and his businesses are in debt to the tune of well over a billion; a lower base interest rate will save him millions (and he's a really shitty businessman, so he needs it desperately).

[jeezusisacasual]

And you think if the US doesn't act through a "globalist" lens, that your quality of life will somehow improve?

This is the point of Globalism. Labor is moving and will move until it is automated so atleast those who have been displaced will enjoy cheaper prices then they would have otherwise. I literally told a guy yesterday at a diner who was complaining about all the factory jobs leaving that he could go work at a factory in Mexico and make a lower middle class wage for Mexico, he was not impressed. The other aspect is that people thought Trump of all people would save them from the natural order of the corporate world are sadly mistaken, his propaganda is made overseas, he hires immigrants to either pay them less or not at all, he worked a second NAFTA which somewhat started this entire problem in their minds.

Do i think we should have had a robust program to help those displaced get back on their feet? Yes, even if the failure rate is stupidly high. If people want the government to not be tied to the donor class then i suggest they work on removing Citizens United otherwise get used to the continuing hand holding that we see.

[Breccia]

Trump likely wants interest rates lowered because he personally owes hundreds of millions (if not more) in loans

Okay, maybe. But the theory is, lower loan rates mean more people borrow. More businesses could borrow to expand their company. It's pretty direct in that regard.

But in context, it fails. See, Trump just handed billions upon billions to companies in the tax cut for the rich. They bought back stocks, and didn't expand much at all. Hell, manufacturing is contracting. I don't understand how businesses would be expected to expand with money they borrowed, when they didn't with money they got for free.

Trump should be worried about his loans of course. Deutsche Bank is handing things over as we speak. If, say, Deutsche Bank is found to continue working with Russian money laundering, after they were fined for doing it already, the resulting fine could be so big that they'll need a way out. Such as calling Trump's loans due. Considering Trump routinely owes more than he owns, Trump Tower might find itself with a new name.

[Thekri]

Speaking of poor PR, just before his moment of silence Trump sent three tweets -- is that more or fewer than his tweets about 9/11? -- attacking the latest poll showing him, again, trailing every Democrat on Earth, a Roomba going in circles, and Basic Campfire.

Fun fact, Trump's trade war has been absolutely smashing iRobot, the maker of the Roomba. So that Roomba might be pissed.

Can't run for President though, Roomba's are all born in China.

More on that 6:42 tweet from Reuters:

The specifics aside, Trump is begging for a policy that is used by weak economies. He either doesn't know that, or he does and he's admitting the economy is in trouble. Neither trait is redeeming.

The "Zero percent or less" is the thing that jumps off the page, but the other thing here is actually more disturbing.

The Federal Reserve should get our interest rates down to ZERO, or less, and we should then start to refinance our debt. INTEREST COST COULD BE BROUGHT WAY DOWN, while at the same time substantially lengthening the term.

That part about refinancing the debt is the scary part. Because the way Trump deals with debt is to default on it. His method of financial management is to drive spending through the roof, then manufacture a crisis and then sue his way out of the responsibility for the debt. This is the real reason he is rich, he is indeed a master at avoiding responsibility for his spending. However he is doing this to the entire nation, and the US simply can't get away with this. This would tank the economy so hard it could be decades before we recovered, and trust never would.

Lets look at what the national debt actually is, and who holds it.

27% of the total debt is intergovernmental debt. That means debt that is owned by other departments of the Federal government, which effectively canceled out. However, the interest rates on this are still very important, because they provide the funds for things like Social Security. A full half of intergovernmental debt is held by the Social Security Administration, as a way of operating a savings account for your retirement. If the government defaults on that debt, your social security fund disappears. If it refinances to zero APR, then your fund doesn't grow over time. In fact it shrinks, because of inflation. The other half is mostly held by other retirement accounts, like the retirement fund for the military, and other federal jobs. So touching any of this will wipe out the retirement of millions.

So that leaves the other 73% of debt. Public Debt. Who owns that? The quick answer is China, but that isn't remotely true. All foreign investors and governments combined only own 40% of it, so China hold less then 5% of the total US debt. In fact, again, the majority of it is held by pensions funds and retirement accounts. This includes states and local governments, your companies retirement fund, your insurance company and bank (Most of the time this is where the money in your checking account actually goes, which is why you can have free checking). Finally, the Federal Reserve owns another 16% of public debt, which is somehow separate from Federal holdings.

So any attempt to refinance or default on this debt is going to absolutely crush every day Americans to an epic level. It won't really effect most big companies too much, they tend to hold cash in vast diversified stock portfolios (It will hurt them, just not to the same scale), but the majority of people have the vast preponderance of their retirement savings as part of the national debt.

Yes, Trump is threatening to take all your money. Literally.

[Felya]

GDPR got rid of a lot of the bad faith posters from "Eastern Europe", too.

Technically, we don’t really know where they were from, while at least a couple that got ‘deleted’ claimed to be from US. Someone still has one of them quoted in his signature.

[Breccia]

Well, we have to do this now.

During the morning's ceremonies, Trump acknowledged a break down in recent peace efforts with the Taliban in Afghanistan and vowed to unleash unprecedented power should the group strike the United States again.

Trump said he called off the Camp David meeting planned for over the weekend when he learned the Taliban carried out an attack that killed a “great American soldier from Puerto Rico,” referring to a suicide bombing in Kabul last week claimed by the militant group.

“They thought they would use this attack to show strength but what they actually showed is unrelenting weakness,” Trump said in remarks at the Pentagon, adding that the U.S. has “hit our enemy harder than they have ever been hit before” in the four days since the cancelled meeting.

“If for any reason they come back to our country, we will go wherever they are and use power the likes of which the United States has never used before -- and I’m not talking about nuclear power -- they will never have seen anything like what will happen to them,” Trump said.

Right. So. There are two questions.

1) I was under the impression Al Qaeda was the group who were responsible for the attack, and the Taliban, while protecting them, did not. Did I miss a memo?

2) Also, the time they would "return" was scheduled by Trump. If he thought they were the ones who carried out the 9/11 attacks, why would he negotiate with them, and more importantly perhaps, why would he give them legitimacy on the world stage by inviting them here for a Big Mac?

Trump also used the time to brag about how he was a first responder. For this and other questionable Trump claims, Politifact always cites their sources.

[Kujako]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...latest-updates

Does he believe his own lies or does he really think... fuck it, his followers ARE that stupid.

Don't forget his claim that he saw "thousands" of Muslims celebrating on roof tops in New Jersey.

[Breccia]

Does he believe his own lies or does he really think... fuck it, his followers ARE that stupid.

There's an entire separate page on this. There is no record of Trump being there to help, of hiring people to help, or the thousands he claimed he saw cheering on rooftops when he was watching TV. Hmm. If you had to guess what admittedly 18-year-younger Trump was doing that day, would you guess
A) moving large heavy rocks
B) watching TV

[Paranoid Android]

Rep. Kevin McCarthy: "The President's resorts are hotels that he owns, that people are traveling. It's just like any other hotel... I don't know that that's different than anything else. Is it different than if I go and stay or eat at a Marriott here or eat at the Trump?" https://t.co/C0qv0UPcsH

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1...556154881?s=19

Keep supporting that corruption and in cases of the emoluments clause in our

[Felya]

Does he believe his own lies or does he really think... fuck it, his followers ARE that stupid.

Yes, Trump does believe his supporters are that stupid. He got away with claiming to attack coastal elites, while on 9/11 he was lying that he now had the tallest tower in NY. Like he said him self... he could shoot someone in the middle of 5th ave and not lose a single supporter. Then there is Trump university, where he believed his supporters would pay for an education from a McDonald’s manager and a card board cut out of Trump... which they did.

[Pratt]

Technically, we don’t really know where they were from, while at least a couple that got ‘deleted’ claimed to be from US. Someone still has one of them quoted in his signature.

I busted one guy who claimed to be from NYC when he talked about NYC using phrases no local would ever use... Anyway, good riddance.
And sorry for the off topic post I didn't think it was worth making a new thread.

[Breccia]

A few bills rolling out:

One, a measure to block Trump from stealing from military projects to pay for the Wall. Collins is a co-sponsor. Expect McConnell to try to block it, because at this point, he knows he's dead in the water anyway. At least this is a chance to force GOP members to say, in public, "Yes I think the Wall is more important than money we put towards the military".

Two, a capital gains tax cut. Now I can't find the Representatives or Senator who signed this, but yet another tax cut that blatantly favors the rich while there's a record-breaking deficit sounds --

"It's an Executive Action. Not a bill. Trump is planning on doing this without Congress."

...he can do that?

"That's what he's checking. The idea is to tie capital gains taxes to inflation now, before the recession hits and therefore inflation likely falls. Obviously this ties in strongly to his 'negative rates' tweet earlier."

Huh. Gotta keep an eye on that.

[Kujako]

...he can do that?

He can do whatever he want's so long as the Senate is unwilling to stop him.

[Breccia]

He was calling radio shows to brag about a taller building being knocked down while waiting for his big macs to show up.

Source

40 Wall street actually was the second-tallest building in downtown Manhattan, and it was actually before the World Trade Center the tallest, and and then when they built the World Trade Center it became known as the second-tallest, and now it’s the tallest And I just spoke to my people, and they said it’s the most unbelievable sight, it’s probably seven or eight blocks away from the World Trade Center, and yet Wall Street is littered with two feet of stone and brick and mortar and steel …

I don't think he called to brag. I think he just has so much of an ego, things like that come out all the time. That's really not much better.

- - - Updated - - -

More bad news for Trump.

New U.S. Census figures show gains in wages and declines in poverty for U.S. citizens, but some household income numbers sour the data.

By the numbers: Median income in 2018 was higher than every year since at $63,179, per the Census in a note accompanying the data's release. But the agency cautions recent estimates reflect changes implemented to the survey and analysts point out that household income hasn't moved much since 1999.

Okay obviously "everything sucks since 1999" means there's a lot of blame to go around.

"Considering that the U.S. economy grew by an inflation-adjusted 48% over the same period, that is more than striking," WSJ's Justin Lahart writes.

Poverty is dropping. The number of people living in poverty fell by 1.4 million.

But median income is growing slowly. "Median household incomes rose only 0.9% in 2018, compared with 1.8% in 2017. In 2016 and 2015, median household incomes grew much faster, at 3.1% and 5.1%, respectively," analysts at the Economic Policy Institute note.

Trump promised wage growth. It's not happening. It's actually getting worse. Also, 5.1% holy shit, thanks Obama!

“Household income growth significantly slowed again in 2018, following a marked deceleration in 2017. While any reduction in poverty or increase in income is a step in the right direction, most families have just barely made up the ground lost over the past decade,” EPI senior economist Elise Gould said in a release.

"We’ve seen a lot of gains in employment among lower-income and lower-education groups ... but it is precisely those groups that are vulnerable to layoffs if economic activity slows," Marianne Wanamaker, an economist and former member of Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, told the Washington Post.

This, compared with his tanking job numbers, his tweet about negative interest rates, and no announced plans to reverse or delay tariffs continue to pile on to the recession warnings. This is just more objective evidence of failure. Remember, Trump ran against "worst President ever" Obama and his numbers are worse in just about every way, and because his actions are mostly (tax cut for the rich exception) unilateral, he can't honestly blame anyone but himself.

Are we tired of winning yet?

[Felya]

Are we tired of winning yet?

Just a reminder, since the first time I said this was before the election. Everything you listed, from further cuts on the rich to no interest rates, is part of Trump’s plan to run up the debt, then default on it ‘to get a better deal’. The next steps to watch out for, is him targeting US bonds. Once that happens, we are a recession away from Trump completely destroying the value of the dollar.

[Breccia]

Everything you listed, from further cuts on the rich to no interest rates, is part of Trump’s plan to run up the debt, then default on it ‘to get a better deal’.

Defaulting on US debt is a novel idea. But "novel" does not mean "good".

The US defaulting would do to the US what anyone else defaulting would do to them. Faith in the US government and by proxy economy would plummet, and the ability of the US government to sustain itself on rising debt would be impacted. I don't want to think about what, exactly, that would do, but I suspect it's massive program cuts and tax increases blamed on Fake News.